Bio Stat 617

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Methods and Theory of Sample Design BIOS 617/SurvMeth 617/Stat 580/Soc 717

Winter 2023 MW 8:30 - 10:00 AM, Room: ISR 1070

Instructor: Walter Dempsey, M4057 SPH II & ISR-Thompson 2456,

Email: wdem@umich.edu

Office Hours: TBD (and by appointment).

Textbook:

• Required: Cochran, W.G. (1977). Sampling Techniques, 3rd ed., Wiley: New York.

• Optional: Lohr, S.L. (2010). Sampling: Design and Analysis, 2nd ed., Brooks-Cole: Boston.

• References: Kish, L. (1965). Survey Sampling, Wiley: New York. Thompson S.K. (2012).
Sampling, 3rd ed, Wiley: New York. Fuller, W.A. (2009). Sampling Statistics, Wiley: New
York.

• Other reading materials as provided

Course Description: This course focuses on the theory underlying sample designs and estimation
procedures commonly used in survey practice. Theory will be made concrete by exploring its
application to national surveys such as Pew opinion polls and the National Survey of Family Growth
(NSFG).

Prerequisites: Three or more courses in statistics at either undergraduate or graduate level.

Course Outline: Readings will be assigned at the beginning of the week.

Topic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Approximate Week


Probability sampling introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 1
Simple Random Sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Week 2
Estimation of proportions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 2
Stratified sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Week 2
Design effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 2
Optimal Allocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 3
Poststratification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 3
Equal size cluster sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 4
Systematic Sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Week 5
Two stage sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Week 5
Three-stage sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 6
Optimal cluster size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Week 6
Ratio estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 7
Regression estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 7
Midterm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 8
Topic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Approximate Week
Unequal size cluster sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 9
Probability proportional to size sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 10
Variance estimation via Taylor series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Week 11
Variance estimation via replication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Week 11
2-phase sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 12
Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 12
Nonsampling error . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 13
Multiple imputation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 14
Final exam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Week 15

Course Objectives: Methods and Theory of Sample Design is concerned with the theory un-
derlying the widely used practical methods of survey sampling. It covers the basic techniques
of simple random sampling, stratification, systematic sampling, cluster and multi-stage sampling,
and probability proportional to size sampling; methods of variance estimation for complex sample
designs, including the Taylor series expansion method, balanced repeated replications, and jack-
knife methods; and several specialized topics, including stratification and subclasses, multi-phase
or double sampling, ratio and regression estimation, selection with unequal probabilities without
replacement, non-response adjustments, dual frame sampling, and respondent driven sampling. The
course examines the the techniques, practical applications, and the theory supporting the methods

Grading: There will be two open-book open-notes in-class examinations, a mid-term and a final.
Each cover all material discussed previously in the course. Students are advised to bring a calculator
to the examinations; laptops and smartphones will not be allowed. Grading will be as follows:

• 10% Diary

• 30% Homework

• 30% Midterm Exam

• 30% Final Exam

Weeks when homework is not due, you will be asked to submit a survey sampling diary (a special
case of a statistics diary). This idea comes from Andrew Gelman. The idea is to start a text/Word
file and add to it every 2-3 days. The entries can be anything related to survey sampling. As
Gelman puts it:

“They can be short slice-of-life observations (‘[...] Is it really true that people are less happy
on Monday? How to measure this in a survey?), quick questions (‘Attitudes toward recre-
ational drugs seem more permissive than in the past? Is this a real trend? If so, is it re-
cent or has it been gradually happening for decades?), research notes (‘Im comparing atti-
tudes about military intervention in several European countries. Do I have to be concerned
about question-wording effects in different languages?), or things youre working on, diffi-
cult problems that you might be stuck on, or have an insight about. You can write as little
or as much as you want each time. The only requirement is that you write something new
in it, every other day. Youre not allowed to go back a week later and fill in 3 entries at
once. That would be cheating. Do it two or three times a week. Just type it in to the file.”
• Before every class, you will have readings. These include research research articles, blog posts,
various other online materials, and chapters from the assigned books. Make sure you come to
class prepared!

• Each class will involve your active participation in class discussion. Also, bring your laptop
computer to class as we may do activities together in R.

Classroom Expectations/Etiquette: This course focuses on developing the concept of random-


ization inference. In this form of inference, the data in the population are treated as fixed and
inference is with respect to the sampling indicators, in contrast to frequentist based inference typ-
ically taught in introductory courses, which assume probability distributions or models for data
generation. The design of the survey sample consequently is fundamental to randomization-based
inference hence it is often referred to as design-based inference. While the inferential target will
be typically simple in this course a population mean or total the underlying inferential theory
will require some getting used to if you have not seen it previously. Even if you are not planning a
career in survey research or methods, understanding randomization inference will greatly enhance
your understanding of statistics.

• The course is somewhat lecture intensive. To break up lectures, we will start many classes
with discussion of real world datasets, specifically opinion polls or national surveys.

• The course is shared with the Joint Program in Survey Methodology at the University of
Maryland.

• Course materials are on the course web site, including lecture notes, homework problems, and
online readings. Students are responsible for printing copies for their own use.

While the majority of the lecture notes will be on-line, regular attendance at the course sessions
will be very helpful to grasp the principles and applications discussed. In the event that a class
must be missed due to an illness or other compelling reason, students must notify the instructor in
advance of the class. If a student is absent on days when exams are scheduled or homework due, the
student must make arrangements with the instructor in advance of the class session to reschedule
the exam or submit the homework later than the due date. Video recordings will be made of each
class for later viewing.

Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion: The University of Michigan School of Public Health seeks to
create and disseminate knowledge, with the aim of preventing disease and promoting the health
of populations worldwide. We commit to create an environment to foster relationships within and
beyond the School of Public Health that promote community connection. Utilizing the institutional
civility code we will promote the values of diversity, equity, and inclusion, both inside and outside
our classrooms. To this end, SPH upholds the expectations that all course participants will acknowl-
edge diverse experiences in the classroom, create environments that encourage equitable classroom
participation, and ensure that students and faculty abide by UM policies and procedures.

Academic Integrity: The faculty and staff of the School of Public Health believe that the conduct
of a student registered or taking courses in the School should be consistent with that of a professional
person. Courtesy, honesty, and respect should be shown by students toward faculty members, guest
lecturers, administrative support staff, community partners, and fellow students. Similarly, students
should expect faculty to treat them fairly, showing respect for their ideas and opinions and striving
to help them achieve maximum benefits from their experience in the School.
Student academic misconduct refers to behavior that may include plagiarism, cheating, fabri-
cation, falsification of records or official documents, intentional misuse of equipment or materials
(including library materials), and aiding and abetting the perpetration of such acts. Please visit
here for the full Policy on Student Academic Conduct Standards and Procedures.

SPH Writing Lab: The SPH Writing Lab is located in 5025 SPH II and offers writing support to
all SPH students for course papers, manuscripts, grant proposals, dissertations, personal statements,
and all other academic writing tasks. The Lab can also help answer questions on academic integrity.
To learn more or make an appointment, please visit the SPH writing lab website.
Student Well-Being: SPH faculty and staff believe it is important to support the physical and
emotional well-being of our students. If you have a physical or mental health issue that is affecting
your performance or participation in any course, and/or if you need help connecting with University
services, please contact the instructor or the SPH Office for Student Engagement and Practice.
Please visit here for information on wellness resources available to you.

Student Accommodations: Students should speak with their instructors before or during the
first week of classes regarding any special needs. Students can also visit the SPH Office for Student
Engagement and Practice for assistance in coordinating communications around accommodations.
Students seeking academic accommodations should register with Services for Students with Dis-
abilities (SSD). SSD arranges reasonable and appropriate academic accommodations for students
with disabilities. Please visit here for more information on student accommodations. Students
who expect to miss classes, examinations, or other assignments as a consequence of their religious
observance shall be provided with a reasonable alternative opportunity to complete such academic
responsibilities. It is the obligation of students to provide faculty with reasonable notice of the
dates of religious holidays on which they will be absent. Please visit the academic calendar for the
complete University policy.

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