Probability: Addition Rule; Mutually exclusive and Complementary events

Pre-lesson Theory

P = Probability
S = Sample space (a set of all the possible outcomes)
E = An event “E” (a subset of the sample space)
A’ = Complement of event “A” (i.e. everything except event A)
n = number of times an event occurs
∩ = intersection (and)
∪ = union (or)

𝑛(𝐸) 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝑃(𝐸) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑙𝑦 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐸) ≤ 1
∴ Probability cannot be negative or greater than 1 (only a 0% - 100% chance)

P(A) = 0 means event A is impossible

P(A) = 1 means event A is certain

Identities
Addition Rule: For any two events A and B, the addition rule can be used:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Mutually Exclusive events: Events A and B are mutually exclusive if A happens

and B cannot happen or if B happens and A cannot (i.e. Event A and B cannot
occur at the same time)
∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0

then the addition rule becomes:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 0

∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

Complementary events:
𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴′ )
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐴′ ) = 0
 Probability: Product rule; Dependent and Independent events
Pre-lesson Theory

Independent events: when the outcome of the 2nd event is NOT affected by the
outcome of the 1st event.
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
Then the addition rule becomes:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

Dependent events: when the outcome of the 1st event affects the outcome of
the 2nd event.
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≠ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
E.g.1] If a die is rolled, determine the probability of it being a six or a one.

E.g.2] If a card is drawn from a pack of playing cards, determine the

probability of it being a ten or a heart.
E.g.3] Given the set of numbers: {3; 4; 5; 6; 7; 8}
Are the following events complementary?
a) Choosing an even number and choosing a prime number?

b) Choosing an odd number and choosing a factor of 8?

c) Choosing an odd number and choosing a factor of 24?
E.g.1] If you roll two dice, what is the probability of getting a six on both
dice?

2 4
E.g.2] A and B are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
5 15
If it is given that A and B are independent events, find 𝑃(𝐵).
E.g.3] A bag contains four R2 coins, six R5 coins and three R1 coins. If two
coins are chosen randomly and not replaced, what is the probability
that both are R5 coins?
 Venn Diagrams – Theory

𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) What is
written here
shows the total
Anything sample space
written here 𝐴 𝐵
is part of the
sample
space, but
not part of
event A or B

𝑛(𝐴 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦) 𝑛(𝐵 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦)

Example Venn diagrams: (parts coloured in blue represents each caption)

𝑨 𝑩 𝑨 𝑩

𝑨∪𝑩 (𝑨 ∪ 𝑩)′

𝑨 𝑩 𝑨 𝑩

𝑩′ 𝑨′
 𝑨 𝑩 𝑨 𝑩

𝑨 ∩ 𝑩′ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑨′

𝑨 𝑩 𝑨 𝑩

𝑪 𝑪
𝑨∩𝑩∩𝑪 (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪)′

𝑨 𝑩 𝑨 𝑩

𝑪 𝑪
𝑨∪𝑩∪𝑪 (𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 ∪ 𝑪)′

𝑨 𝑩 𝑨 𝑩

𝑪 𝑪
𝑪 ∩ (𝑨 ∪ 𝑩)′ 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪′

This is NOT a complete list of ALL possible Venn diagrams. There are many more
possibilities, but this should give you a good idea of how Venn diagrams work.
E.g.1] The Venn diagram shows the results of asking learners whether they
play the guitar or the piano.

𝑨 𝑩
𝑝𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑜 𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑟

𝟏𝟎 𝟕 𝟏𝟓

𝟏𝟖

Determine the probability that a learner chosen at random from the group:
a) Plays the piano, but not the guitar.

b) Does not play either instrument.

c) Plays the guitar.

d) Plays the piano, given that he plays the guitar.

e) Explain why the events playing piano and playing guitar are not
mutually exclusive, exhaustive or independent.
E.g.2] Fifty learners were asked if they had ever broken an arm, a leg or
their nose.
▪ 21 had broken a leg ▪ 28 had broken an arm
▪ 8 had broken their noses ▪ 9 had broken an arm and a leg
▪ 5 had broken an arm and their nose
▪ 6 had broken their nose and a leg
▪ 10 had not broken any of these

a) Display the information in a Venn diagram.

 b) Determine how many learners had broken a leg only.

A learner is randomly chosen from those surveyed. Find the probability

that the learner:
c) had broken an arm only.

d) had broken an arm given that he had broken a leg.

e) had not broken their nose.

f) had broken a nose and a leg.

g) had broken an arm or a leg.

E.g.3] Eighty percent of the learners at a local high school play a sport and
62,5 percent belong to a society. Fifty percent of the learners play a
sport and belong to a society.

a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent the information.

b) What is the probability that a learner who does not belong to a
society plays a sport?

c) What is the probability that a learner belongs to a society or plays a

sport?

d) What is the probability that a learner belongs to no society nor plays

a sport?
 e) Determine whether playing a sport and belonging to a society are
independent events in this high school.

E.g.4] We know the following facts about a group of 32 learners:

▪ 12 like hamburgers ▪ 2 of them who like hamburgers
▪ 16 like hotdogs and hotdogs also like chips
▪ 8 like chips, but not hamburgers or ▪ All the learners like either
hotdogs hotdogs, hamburgers or chips
▪ 7 like chips and hamburgers
▪ 13 like chips and hotdogs

a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent this information, using A for

hamburgers, B for hotdogs and C for chips
b) Explain why:
(i) A, B and C are exhaustive events.
(ii) A, B and C are not complementary events.

(iii) B and C are independent events.

(iv) A and B are not independent events.

E.g.1] Ken and Claire plan to have three children.
a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the possible combinations of the
sexes of their children

b) Determine the probability that they will have 3 girls.

c) Determine the probability that they will have 2 boys and a girl.

d) Determine the probability that they will have 2 girls, given that their
first child is a boy.
e) Determine the probability that they will have at least one boy.

E.g. 2] Simon either walks or cycles to school. When he cycles to school,

the probability that he is on time is 0,9 but if he walks to school, the
probability that he is on time is 0,8. He cycles to school 60% of the
time.
a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the information.

b) Determine the probability that he is late for school on any day

chosen at random.
E.g.3] A bag contains 6 white balls, 4 black balls and 5 green balls. A ball is
drawn at random and not replaced. A second ball is drawn.
a) Show that drawing a white ball in the first draw and drawing a
white ball in the second draw are not independent events.

b) Draw a tree diagram to represent the information.

c) What is the probability that both balls will be green?

d) What is the probability that the first ball is black, and the second ball is
green?

e) What is the probability that the two balls are white and green in any
order?

E.g.4] A company buys stationary from two suppliers, A and B, and places
twice as many orders with A as with B. The probability that either
supplier A or B will deliver and order on time is 0,8.
a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the information.
b) Determine whether ordering from supplier A and the order not being
delivered on time are independent events.
E.g.1] A group of Maths and Science learners at a college were interviewed
about the subjects they studied. The college offered two different
maths courses and two different science courses. No learner was
enrolled in more than one maths or science course at any one time.
The results of the survey are recorded in the table.

Mathematics A Mathematics B Total

Science A 6 20
Science B 13
Total 23

a) Complete the table

b) How many learners were interviewed?

c) What is the probability that a learner chosen at random was enrolled

for Mathematics A?

d) What is the probability that a learner chosen at random was enrolled

for Science B and Maths B?

e) What is the probability that a learner chosen at random was enrolled

for Science B, given that they were enrolled for Maths A?
E.g.1b] Five years later a similar survey was conducted on 100 learners. It
was found that the probability of a learner:
▪ Enrolled in Maths A and Science A was 0,3
▪ Enrolled in Maths A was 0,8.
▪ Not enrolled in either Maths A or Science A was 0,1

a) Complete the contingency table

Mathematics A Not Mathematics A Total
Science A
Not Science A
Total

b) What is the probability that a learner has Maths A but not Science A?

c) What is the probability that a learner takes Science A but not Maths A?

d) How many of the surveyed learners were enrolled for Science A?

e) What is the probability that a learner takes either Maths A or Science A?

E.g.2] A group of people were asked whether they had watched Gcina
Mhlope’s plays or listened to her story telling. Based on the results of
the survey, the contingency table was drawn up to show the
probability of the events.

Watched plays Not watched plays Total

Heard stories 0,6
Not heard stories 0,26
Total 0,35

a) Complete the table

b) Show that watching her plays and hearing her story telling are
independent events.

E.g.3] A study was conducted to investigate the relationship between eye

colour and hair colour. A group of 250 people were observed. The
results are:
▪ 12 people had red hair, 64 had blond hair and 82 had black hair.
▪ 35 of the blondes had blue eyes and 21 had green eyes
▪ 68 of the brunettes had brown eyes
▪ 38 of those with black hair had brown eyes and 41 had green eyes
▪ 5 of the red heads had blue eyes
▪ 116 people had brown eyes and 86 had green eyes

a) Complete the following contingency table:

Blond hair Brunettes Black hair Read hair TOTAL

Blue eyes
Brown eyes
Green eyes
TOTAL
b) What is the probability of someone having blond hair and green eyes?

c) What is the probability of someone having black hair and brown eyes?

d) What is the probability that someone will have blue eyes, given that
they are brunette?

e) What is the probability that someone will have red hair, given that they
have green eyes?