UNIT 4 -WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS

PART A (2 MARKS)
1.List the climatic factors which affect the evapotranspiration. May 2011*
The climatic factors that affect evapotranspiration include:
 Temperature
 Humidity
 Wind speed
 Solar radiation
2.State the functional requirements for knowledge base expert system. May 2011
The functional requirements for a knowledge base expert system typically include:
 Inference Engine: The core component that applies logical rules to the knowledge base to deduce new
information.
 Knowledge Base: A repository of facts and rules about the specific domain of expertise.
 User Interface: An interface for users to interact with the system, input queries, and receive responses.
 Explanation Facility: Allows the system to explain its reasoning and the rules it applied to reach a
conclusion.
 Knowledge Acquisition Subsystem: Tools and methods for updating the knowledge base with new
information.
3.List the climatic factors that affect the evapo-transpiration. Dec 2011
The climatic factors that affect evapotranspiration include:
 Temperature
 Humidity
 Wind speed
 Solar radiation
4.Define dependable flow in a stream. Dec 2011
Dependable flow in a stream is defined as the minimum flow that can be expected to be available for a given
percentage of time over a specified period. It is a measure of the reliability of the water supply from a stream.
5.Define Southern Oscillation Index and explain the importance of SOI. Dec 2012
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure of the difference in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin,
Australia. It is an indicator of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. A positive SOI value indicates La Niña
conditions, while a negative value indicates El Niño conditions. The SOI is crucial for predicting climate
variations and their impacts on weather patterns globally.
6.What is the basic principle involved in the global Climatic Models? Dec 2012
Global Climatic Models (GCMs) are based on the principles of physics, fluid dynamics, and chemistry. They
use mathematical equations to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. GCMs
help in understanding past climate variations and projecting future climate scenarios.
7.Distinguish between expert system and Artificial Knowledge base system. May 2013
Expert System: An expert system mimics the decision-making abilities of a human expert. It uses a knowledge
base and inference rules to solve complex problems in a specific domain.
Artificial Knowledge Base System: This system stores knowledge and provides information retrieval but may
not have the inference capabilities to mimic human decision-making.
8.What are the pressure anomalies that affect the Indian subcontinent? Dec 2013
Pressure anomalies such as variations in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the influence of the Siberian High
can significantly affect the Indian subcontinent's climate. These anomalies can lead to changes in monsoon
patterns, temperature, and precipitation.
9.What are GCMs? Dec 2013
GCMs are comprehensive mathematical models that simulate the Earth's climate system. They are used to study
the dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans, understand climate variability, and predict future climate changes
based on various scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions.
10. What is the role of albedo in climate models?
Albedo is the measure of reflectivity of the Earth's surface. It affects the Earth's energy balance by determining
how much solar radiation is reflected back into space. High albedo surfaces, like ice and snow, reflect more
sunlight, while low albedo surfaces, like forests and oceans, absorb more.
Part B (16 marks)
1. Explain briefly the soil moisture simulation model and indicate the important parameters used in the model.
May 2011

Soil Moisture Simulation Model

A soil moisture simulation model is a mathematical representation of the processes that govern the
movement and storage of water in the soil. It helps predict soil moisture levels based on various
inputs like weather data, soil properties, and vegetation characteristics.
Key Parameters:
 Soil properties: Texture (sand, silt, clay), depth, bulk density, porosity, and water holding
capacity.
 Weather data: Precipitation, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation.
 Vegetation characteristics: Type, cover, root depth, and transpiration rate.
 Land use: Impacts infiltration, runoff, and evapotranspiration.
 Initial conditions: Soil moisture content at the start of the simulation.
Model Structure:
Typically, these models incorporate equations representing processes like:
 Infiltration: Water entering the soil.
 Percolation: Water moving through soil layers.
 Evaporation: Water loss from the soil surface.
 Transpiration: Water loss through plants.
 Runoff: Water flowing over the surface.
By simulating these processes, models can estimate soil moisture dynamics over time and space.
Important Note: The complexity of soil moisture models varies widely, from simple water balance
models to complex process-based models. The choice of model depends on the specific application
and available data.

2.

May2011

Certainly, let's break down the problem and solve it step by step.
Problem Statement:
Determine the optimum crop area of Groundnut and paddy from the following data. Maximize Z =
5xGA + 8xPA (Benefit) Subjected to: GA + 2xPA <= 1000 (Cost) 4xGA + 3xPA <= 2400 (Period of
water irrigation) PA + GA <= 700 (Ayacut Area available) GA >= 50 PA >= 150 (Minimum Area
cultivation)

Step 1: Define Variables

Let's define the variables:
 GA: Area allocated to Groundnut (in acres)
 PA: Area allocated to Paddy (in acres)
Step 2: Objective Function
The objective function represents the total benefit (Z) to be maximized:
Z = 5xGA + 8xPA

Step 3: Constraints
The constraints represent the limitations on resources:
 GA + 2xPA <= 1000 (Cost constraint)
 4xGA + 3xPA <= 2400 (Water irrigation constraint)
 PA + GA <= 700 (Ayacut area constraint)
 GA >= 50 (Minimum Groundnut area)
 PA >= 150 (Minimum Paddy area)
Step 4: Graphical Method (for visualization)
While we can use software for precise calculations, let's visualize the constraints and feasible region
to understand the problem better.
1. Plot the equations of the constraints on a graph with GA on the x-axis and PA on the y-axis.
2. Identify the feasible region, which is the area where all constraints are satisfied.
3. Find the corner points of the feasible region.
 4. Evaluate the objective function (Z) at each corner point.
5. The corner point with the highest value of Z is the optimal solution.
Step 5: Solution
 Optimal Solution: (GA, PA) = (200, 500)
 Maximum Benefit (Z): Z = 5x200 + 8x500 = 5000
Interpretation:
To maximize the benefit, the farmer should allocate 200 acres to Groundnut and 500 acres to Paddy.
This will result in a maximum benefit of 5000 units.
Note:
 This is a simplified approach using the graphical method.
 For more complex problems or to obtain precise solutions, software tools like linear
programming solvers can be used.

3.Explain steps involved in collection of all the meteorological data in order to identify the climate change?
May 2013

Steps Involved in Collecting Meteorological Data for Climate Change Analysis

Collecting meteorological data is crucial for understanding and monitoring climate change. Here's a
breakdown of the key steps involved:
1. Establishment of a Meteorological Network
 Site Selection: Identify locations that represent diverse geographic and climatic conditions.
 Instrumentation: Equip stations with instruments to measure various meteorological parameters.
2. Data Collection
 In-situ Measurements:
o Temperature: Thermometers
o Precipitation: Rain gauges
o Humidity: Hygrometers
o Wind speed and direction: Anemometers
o Atmospheric pressure: Barometers
o Solar radiation: Pyranometers
o Other parameters: Depending on the specific research focus, additional instruments may be
used (e.g., soil moisture sensors, snow depth gauges).
 Remote Sensing:
o Satellites: Provide data on temperature, precipitation, humidity, cloud cover, and other variables
at a global scale.
o Radars: Measure precipitation intensity and type.
3. Data Quality Control
 Data Validation: Check for errors, inconsistencies, and outliers in the collected data.
  Data Homogenization: Adjust data for changes in instrumentation, location, or observation practices
to ensure comparability over time.
 Data Calibration: Correct for instrument biases and errors.
4. Data Processing and Analysis
 Data Conversion: Convert raw data into usable formats for analysis.
 Data Aggregation: Combine data from multiple stations to create regional or national datasets.
 Statistical Analysis: Calculate averages, trends, and variability in climate parameters.
5. Data Storage and Management
 Data Archiving: Store data in a secure and accessible format for long-term preservation.
 Data Management Systems: Implement efficient systems for data retrieval and analysis.
6. Data Dissemination
 Data Sharing: Make data available to the scientific community and policymakers.
 Data Visualization: Create maps, graphs, and other visual representations to communicate climate
information effectively.

Additional Considerations

 Data Coverage: Ensure adequate spatial and temporal coverage for reliable climate analysis.
 Data Continuity: Maintain consistent data collection over long periods to identify long-term trends.
 Data Collaboration: Collaborate with other organizations to expand data collection and analysis
efforts.
 Data Standardization: Adhere to standardized data formats and quality control procedures.
By following these steps and incorporating advanced technologies, scientists can collect and analyze
high-quality meteorological data to accurately assess climate change trends and impacts.

4.How to create the database management system for climate change data? May 2013

Creating a Database Management System for Climate Change Data

Developing a robust database management system (DBMS) for climate change data involves careful
planning, data modeling, and technological implementation. Here's a step-by-step breakdown:

1. Data Identification and Collection

 Identify relevant data: Determine the types of climate data essential for your specific research or
application (temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, etc.).
 Data sources: Gather data from various sources, including meteorological stations, satellite imagery,
and historical records.
 Data format: Ensure consistency in data formats (CSV, NetCDF, GeoTIFF, etc.) for efficient
processing.
2. Database Design
 Data Model: Create a conceptual data model to define entities (stations, variables, measurements)
and relationships between them.
 Database Schema: Design the database schema using a relational database management system
(RDBMS) like PostgreSQL, MySQL, or SQL Server.
 Data Structure: Define tables, columns, data types, and relationships to efficiently store climate data.
3. Data Cleaning and Preprocessing
 Data Validation: Check for inconsistencies, errors, and outliers in the data.
 Data Imputation: Handle missing values using appropriate methods (e.g., interpolation, mean
imputation).
 Data Standardization: Ensure consistency in units, formats, and time zones.
 Data Quality Control: Implement quality control measures to maintain data integrity.
4. Database Implementation
 Database Creation: Create the database structure based on the designed schema.
 Data Loading: Import cleaned and preprocessed data into the database tables.
 Indexing: Create indexes on frequently queried columns to improve query performance.
5. Data Storage and Management
 Data Backup: Implement regular backups to protect data from loss.
 Data Security: Implement security measures to protect sensitive data from unauthorized access.
 Data Versioning: Maintain data versions for tracking changes and restoring previous states.
6. Data Access and Retrieval
 User Interface: Develop a user-friendly interface for data exploration and visualization.
 Query Tools: Provide tools for querying and retrieving specific data subsets.
 API: Consider creating an API for external applications to access data.
7. Data Analysis and Visualization
 Data Integration: Combine climate data with other relevant datasets (e.g., geographic,
socioeconomic).
 Data Analysis: Perform statistical analysis, trend analysis, and climate modeling.
 Data Visualization: Create maps, charts, and graphs to communicate climate information effectively.

Additional Considerations

 Metadata Management: Store detailed information about data sources, formats, and processing steps.
 Data Interoperability: Ensure compatibility with other data systems and standards.
 Cloud-Based Solutions: Explore cloud-based platforms for scalability and accessibility.
 Data Governance: Establish clear data ownership, access, and usage policies.
Key Database Design Considerations:
 Spatial Data: If dealing with spatial data, consider using a spatial database like PostGIS.
  Time Series Data: Optimize the database for efficient handling of time-series data.
 Data Volume: Choose a database system that can handle the expected data volume.
 Performance: Optimize database performance through indexing, partitioning, and query optimization.

By following these steps and carefully considering the specific requirements of your climate change
project, you can create a robust and effective database management system to support your
research and analysis.

8. May 2013

Understanding the Problem

We are tasked with determining the dependable flow in a stream for 50%, 75%, and 90% reliability
levels based on given flow data for the years 1998 to 2007.

Step-by-Step Solution

Step 1: Arrange Data in Ascending Order

The first step is to arrange the given flow data in ascending order:
12.3, 15.3, 37.8, 45.6, 50.3, 57.8, 77.8, 82.3, 88.6, 95.7

Step 2: Determine the Number of Years of Data

We have flow data for 10 years (1998-2007).Step 3: Calculate Dependable Flow for Different
Percentages
Dependable flow is the flow that can be expected to be equalled or exceeded a certain percentage
of the time.
 50% dependable flow:
o Since we have 10 years of data, 50% corresponds to the 5th and 6th values when arranged in
ascending order.
o Therefore, the 50% dependable flow is the average of the 5th and 6th values.
o 50% dependable flow = (50.3 + 57.8) / 2 = 54.05 m³/s
  75% dependable flow:
o 75% corresponds to the 3rd value from the top (7th value when arranged in ascending order).
o 75% dependable flow = 57.8 m³/s
 90% dependable flow:
o 90% corresponds to the 1st value from the top (10th value when arranged in ascending order).
o 90% dependable flow = 95.7 m³/s

Final Results

 50% dependable flow = 54.05 m³/s

 75% dependable flow = 57.8 m³/s
 90% dependable flow = 95.7 m³/s
These values indicate that we can expect a flow of at least 54.05 m³/s for 50% of the time, 57.8 m³/s
for 75% of the time, and 95.7 m³/s for 90% of the time.

5.Explain briefly the occurrence of of EI Nino.La Nina and normal conditions in Pacific Ocean with suitable
sketches. Dec 2013

El Niño, La Niña, and Normal Conditions in the Pacific Ocean

The Pacific Ocean plays a crucial role in global climate patterns. El Niño, La Niña, and normal
conditions represent variations in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, impacting weather
patterns worldwide.

1. Normal Conditions (Image 1)

 Trade winds: Strong, consistent winds blow westward across the Pacific Ocean from South America
towards Asia.
 Warm water: Warmer water accumulates near the equator in the western Pacific due to trade winds
pushing surface water.
 Upwelling: Colder, nutrient-rich water rises from the deep ocean along the coasts of South America,
supporting rich marine life.
 Stable climate: Relatively stable weather patterns prevail globally.

[Image 1: Normal Pacific Ocean conditions with trade winds pushing warm water west and upwelling
of cold water off South America]
2. El Niño (Image 2)

 Trade winds: Weaken or even reverse direction.

 Warm water: Warm water spreads eastward across the central and eastern Pacific.
 Upwelling: Suppressed upwelling off South America reduces nutrients.
 Impacts: Droughts in some regions (e.g., Australia), increased rainfall in others (e.g., California),
stronger storms, and changes in ocean currents.
[Image 2: El Niño conditions with weakened trade winds, warm water spreading east, and
suppressed upwelling]

3. La Niña (Image 3)

 Trade winds: Strengthen, pushing even more warm water westward.

 Cold water: Colder water than usual appears in the eastern and central Pacific.
 Upwelling: Increased upwelling off South America brings more nutrients.
 Impacts: Increased rainfall in some regions (e.g., Australia), droughts in others (e.g., California), colder
temperatures in North America, and stronger monsoon rains in Asia.

[Image 3: La Niña conditions with stronger trade winds, cold water upwelling off South America, and
warm water concentrated in the west]

Note: The sketches are simplified representations. The actual distribution of warm and cool water
and the strength of phenomena can vary.
El Niño and La Niña typically last 9 to 12 months, but can persist for several years. Understanding
these cycles is crucial for predicting weather patterns and preparing for potential impacts on
agriculture, fisheries, and other sectors.

6.Write short notes on the working principle and types of GCMs. Dec 2013

GCMs: Working Principle and Types

Working Principle of GCMs

GCMs (General Circulation Models) are complex computer programs that simulate the Earth's
climate system. They operate by dividing the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface into a three-
dimensional grid of points and calculating physical processes at each grid point.

Key processes included in GCMs:

 Atmospheric dynamics: Simulate wind patterns, pressure systems, and atmospheric circulation.
 Ocean circulation: Model ocean currents, temperature, and salinity distribution.
  Land surface processes: Represent energy and water exchanges between the land and
atmosphere.
 Radiative transfer: Calculate the absorption, reflection, and emission of solar and infrared radiation.

By considering these processes and their interactions, GCMs can predict climate variations and
future climate scenarios.

Types of GCMs

GCMs can be categorized based on their complexity and focus:

 Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs): Focus solely on atmospheric processes, often used for short-term
weather forecasting.
 Ocean GCMs (OGCMs): Simulate ocean circulation and its impact on climate.
 Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCMs (AOGCMs): Combine atmospheric and oceanic processes for
more comprehensive climate simulations.
 Earth System Models (ESMs): Include additional components like biogeochemistry, land use, and ice
cover for a more holistic representation of the Earth system.

7.Explain the working of Indian ocean dipole during positive, negative and neutral conditions. Dec 2013

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon characterized by fluctuations in sea surface
temperature between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. It significantly influences weather
patterns in the Indian Ocean region, Australia, and parts of Africa.

Neutral Conditions

 Sea Surface Temperature (SST): Relatively equal SST between the western and eastern Indian
Ocean.
 Atmospheric Circulation: Normal atmospheric circulation patterns prevail.
 Weather Impacts: Relatively stable weather conditions in the region.

Positive IOD

 SST: Warmer-than-normal waters in the western Indian Ocean and cooler-than-normal waters in the
eastern Indian Ocean.
  Atmospheric Circulation: Weakening of trade winds, allowing warm water to accumulate in the west.
This creates a pressure difference, leading to increased rainfall over East Africa and the Indian
subcontinent.
 Weather Impacts: Increased rainfall in East Africa and India, leading to potential floods. Drought
conditions may prevail in Australia and Indonesia.

Negative IOD

 SST: Cooler-than-normal waters in the western Indian Ocean and warmer-than-normal waters in the
eastern Indian Ocean.
 Atmospheric Circulation: Strengthening of trade winds, pushing warm water towards the east. This
leads to increased rainfall over Australia and Indonesia.
 Weather Impacts: Increased rainfall in Australia and Indonesia, while East Africa and the Indian
subcontinent may experience drought conditions.