PSYC1000 LECTURE 2:

RESEARCH STRATEGIES &

STATISTICS IN EVERYDAY LIFE
DR. SHANNON VETTOR 1
PARTICIPATION IN RESEARCH STUDIES

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 LECTURE OVERVIEW

• Why research?
• The Scientific Method
• Descriptive
• Correlational
• Experimental
• The use of statistics in psychology

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 WHY RESEARCH?

• So, you want to know what makes humans tick.

• How are you going to go about figuring that out?

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IF WE WANT TO KNOW SOMETHING

• We could make a reasonable guess based on

our experiences, thoughts, and beliefs
• Commonsense
• Intuition

• We could go ask people

• Authority heuristic
• Limited to knowledge of others
• Existing information may not be valid or reliable

• We could conduct research

• Test it out for ourselves

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LIMITS OF INTUITION

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 HINDSIGHT BIAS

• After learning the outcome of an event, many

people believe they could have predicted that very
outcome.
• We tend to say “I knew it all along” when explaining
events that objectively would have been difficult to
foresee.

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 Absence makes the heart grow fonder
Out of sight, out of mind
You can’t teach an old dog new tricks
You’re never too old to learn
Good fences make good neighbors
No [wo]man is an island
Birds of a feather flock together
Opposites attract
Seek and ye shall find These sayings all
Curiosity killed the cat But then
seem why
toother
makedo
these
sense, inalso
hindsight,
phrases
after we seem
read
to make
them. sense?

Look before you leap

S/He who hesitates is lost The pen is mightier than the sword
Actions speak louder than words

The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence

There’s no place like home
 OVERCONFIDENCE ERROR

• We are much too certain in our judgments.

• We overestimate our performance, our rate of work,
our skills, and our degree of self-control.
• We also overestimate the accuracy of our
knowledge (i.e., people are much more certain than
they are accurate).
• Overconfidence is also a problem on tests!
• Overconfidence is particularly a problem in
eyewitness testimony.

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 OVERCONFIDENCE ERROR IN
EYEWITNESS TESTIMONY

Ronald Clouser Father Bernard Pagano

The “gentleman bandit” 10
 PERCEIVING ORDER IN RANDOM
EVENTS

• We tend to perceive order

in random events when
there isn’t any, which
makes us think we can
make a prediction from a
random series.
• We have the wrong idea
of what randomness looks
like.
• Gambler fallacy

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 SO WHY DO WE MAKE THESE ERRORS
AND OVERUSE OUR INTUITION?

• Simply put - sometimes our intuition gives the right

answer, which makes us trust it even more!

• Hindsight bias might be an offshoot of our useful

habit of analysing an event and trying to figure
out why it occurred.
• Our overconfidence error might help us lead other
people.
• As for perceiving order, this bias may help us make
predictions about things, which can be useful.
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 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH

• Scientific research is more effective and

generalizable than intuition
• Scientific research avoids the hindsight bias
• Scientific research comes with its own set of
strengths and weaknesses
• Different methodological designs are better
suited for different research questions or
situations
• No one study proves anything, but a body of
research all pointing to the same outcome
becomes very convincing
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 IMPORTANCE OF SCIENTIFIC
RESEARCH
• “Facts” and “truths” often come from research.
• Psychology facts and truths are all based in research
• The media refers to more and more research findings.
The more you know about research, the more you
will know when to trust and when not to trust the
research reported (i.e., become a critical thinker!).
• Facts are only as good as the research that was
done to collect them. If the research was flawed, the
findings of that research are not trustworthy
• People who do not understand research sometimes
misinterpret research findings
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 THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

• The scientific method is a self-correcting process

for evaluating ideas with observation and
analysis.
• Key features of the scientific method:
1. Theories – a set of principles, built on observations
and other verifiable facts, that explains some
phenomenon and predicts its future behaviour
2. Hypotheses – a testable prediction consistent with
our theory
3. Research and observation (must include
operational definitions)
4. Replication
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THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

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 RESEARCH METHODS

 Three key psychological research

methods:
1. Experimental
2. Descriptive
3. Correlational

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 FOUR GOALS OF PSYCHOLOGY

Description: tells “what” occurred

Explanation: tells “why” a particular behaviour
or mental process occurred
Prediction: identifies conditions under which a
future behavior or mental process is likely
to occur
Change: applies psychological knowledge to
prevent unwanted behavior or to bring
about desired goals
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 THREE KEY RESEARCH METHODS

May also be used to test ways Can be used to

to change behaviour. describe as well. 19
 DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH

• Descriptive research observes and records

behaviour without producing causal
explanations
• Naturalistic Observation – Observation and
recording of behavior in natural state or
habitat
• Survey – Assessment of a sample or
population
• Case Study – In-depth study of a single
participant
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 A CASE STUDY EXAMPLE: PHINEAS
GAGE
"Horrible Accident - As Phineas P. Gage, a foreman on the railroad
in Cavendish, was yesterday engaged in tamping for a blast, the
powder exploded, carrying an instrument through his head an
inch in length, which he was using at the time. The iron entered
on the side of his face, shattering the upper jaw, and passing
back of the left eye, and out at the top of the head.

The most singular circumstance

connected with this melancholy
affair is, that he was alive at two
o'clock this afternoon, and in full
possession of his reason, and
free from pain.”

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 CORRELATIONAL RESEARCH

• Scientific study in which the researcher

observes or measures (without directly
manipulating) two or more variables to
determine if there is a relationship
between them

• Problems with Correlations

• Illusory correlations
• Regression towards the mean
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 TYPES OF CORRELATION

(i.e., no correlation)
Positive Correlation – Two variables move (or vary) in the same direction.
Negative Correlation – Two variables move (or vary) in the opposite direction 23
 CLOSER LOOK

When one trait or behavior

accompanies another, we say the two
correlate. Indicates strength
of relationship
(0.00 to 1.00)

Correlation
coefficient r = + 0.37

Correlation Coefficient is a statistical Indicates direction

measure of the relationship of relationship
(positive or negative)
between two variables. 24
 CORRELATION COEFFICIENT

• Which of the following correlation coefficients

indicates the strongest relationship between
two variables?
a) r = 0.01
b) r = -0.92
c) r = 0.80
d) r = -0.14

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 HOW DO WE FIND CORRELATIONS?

Scatterplots
• Place a dot on the graph for
each person, corresponding
to their numbers for their
height and shoe size

Height
• In this imaginary example,
height correlates with shoe
size; as height goes up, shoe
size goes up.

Shoe size 26
 DATA

Data showing height and temperament in 20 male

participants.

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 SCATTERPLOT

The scatterplot below shows the relationship for the data

presented on the previous slide. There is a moderate
positive correlation of +0.63.

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 CORRELATION IS NOT
CAUSATION
Correlations NEVER prove cause and effect.
Confounding variable – a variable which is
uncontrolled or unaccounted for and may influence
the result of a research study

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 EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH
• Carefully controlled scientific
procedure that manipulates
variables to determine cause
and effect

• Key features:
• Independent variable (factor that is
manipulated) vs. dependent
variable (factor that is measured)

• Experimental group (receives

treatment) vs. control group
(receives no treatment) 31
 EXAMPLES OF IVS AND DVS

Remember: Independent variables are controlled

by the researcher and dependent variables are
the outcomes being measured.

• Does an exercise program affect weight?

• Are eyewitnesses more accurate when they
witness more serious crimes?
• Does therapy reduce recidivism in violent
offenders?

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Only an
experiment
can
determine
cause and
effect.

Random
assignment
is VERY
important.

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RANDOM ASSIGNMENT

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POSSIBLE PROBLEMS

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COMPARING RESEARCH
METHODS

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AFTER DATA IS COLLECTED –
STATISTICS!

• Statistics tell us if the data we found

differs significantly (i.e., IV had an
impact) or not (i.e., random
fluctuation)
• Psychological research employs a
number of different statistics, but
nearly all of them include measures
of central tendency and measures of
variation somewhere in the formula

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MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY

• Mode – The most frequently occurring score

in a distribution.
• Mean – The arithmetic average of scores in
a distribution obtained by adding the
scores and then dividing by the number of
scores that were added together.
• Median – The middle score in a rank-
ordered distribution.

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A SKEWED EXAMPLE

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 VARIABILITY
• Describes the spread (or variation) of the scores in a
distribution.
• EXAMPLE: You interview five people and ask them
how old they are
• If they are all 28, there is no variation in the age of
the people
• If they are ages 6, 20, 28, 37, and 49 then there is
more variation.
Variability refers to how similar or different the
people in the sample are from one another. Two
samples with the same mean can be very different.

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 MEASURES OF VARIATION

 Range – the difference between the highest and

lowest scores in a distribution
 Standard Deviation – a computed measure of how
much scores vary around the mean; a calculation of
the average distance between scores from the mean

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 THE NORMAL (BELL) CURVE

• Scores on aptitude tests tend to form a normal, or bell-

shaped, curve. For example, the most commonly used
intelligence test calls the average score 100.

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WHEN ARE DIFFERENCES RELIABLE?

1. Representative samples are better than

biased samples.
2. Less-variable observations are more
reliable than more variable ones.
3. More cases are better than fewer cases.

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 WHEN ARE DIFFERENCES
STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT?

• When calculations indicate that research results are

not likely to be result of chance, we say that the
results are statistically significant
• Significance occurs when the probability of the
observed findings being due to chance is very low
• Less than 5/100 (i.e., 5%)
• Key: Amount of variability
• Standard deviation is important
• Depends on sample size: Larger sample size is
better
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 FINAL POINT TO CONSIDER
• Statistical Literacy
• Involves understanding statistics and what they mean
• Example: confusion over COVID’s risks and vaccines’ protectiveness

• Statistical Misinformation
• Gets fed by off-the-top-of-the-head estimates; big, round,
undocumented numbers get echoed & believed
• Example: percent of gay people; percentage of brain used; 10,000 steps a
day

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Q1. Can laboratory experiments illuminate
what goes on in everyday life?

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Q2. Why do psychologists study animals,
and is it ethical to experiment on animals?

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Q3. Is it ethical to experiment on people?

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Q4. Is psychology potentially dangerous?

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 NEXT WEEK:
THE BIOLOGY OF THE MIND (CHP 2)

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