Probability

The probability of a given event may be defined as the numerical value given to the likelihood of
the occurrence of that event. It is a number lying between 0 and 1. Zero is for an event which
cannot occur and 1 for an event certain to occur. When the occurrence of an event is uncertain,
probability is a number between 0 and 1.
For example, when we toss a coin, the event of getting Head is uncertain. So its probability is
neither 0 nor 1, but between the two. Since the likelihood of the occurrence of Head is as much as
its not occurring, we can predict the occurrence of the Head with 50% confidence only. Therefore
the probability for head=1/2

Random Experiment
An experiment that has two or more outcomes which vary in an unpredictable manner from trial
to trial when conducted under uniform conditions is called a random experiment. In a random
experiment all the possible outcomes are known in advance but none of the outcomes can be
predicted with certainty.
Example: tossing a coin, rolling a die etc.
Throwing a die is another example of a random experiment. When we throw a die, the possible
results are [1,2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. It is not possible to predict which of these will occur.
The essential features of random experiment are
i. It should be repeatable under uniform conditions
ii. It should have more than one outcome
One should not predict the outcome of a particular trial
Sample space
A sample space is the set of all conceivable outcome of a random experiment. The sample space
is usually denoted by S. The notion of a sample space comes from Richard Von Mises. (or Sample
space is the collection of all possible outcomes of a random experiment)
Example: When a coin is tossed the sample space is S= {Head, Tail}
Every indecomposable outcome of a random experiment is known as a sample point or
elementary outcome.
Example, when a coin is tossed, getting head is a sample point.
The number of sample points in the sample space may be finite, countably infinite or non countably
infinite. Sample space with finite or countably infinite number of elements is called discrete sample
space. Sample space with continuum of points is called continuous sample space.
Example:
1. The sample space obtained in the throw of a single die is a finite sample
space.
ie. S= {1,2,3,4,5,6}
2. The sample space obtained in connection with the random experiment of
tossing a coin again and again until a head appears is a countably infinite
sample space.
ie, S={H,TH,TTH,TTTH,…}
3. Consider the life time of a machine. The outcome of this experiment forms a
continuous sample space.
ie, S={t : 0 ≤ t ≤ ∞ }
Example
• A box contains 10 tickets each numbered 1 to 10. A ticket is drawn. What is the sample
space?
• From a lot containing good and bad items, 3 items are chosen. Prepare the sample space.
Problem
• Write down the sample space in the following cases:
a) tossing three unbiased coins
b) Throwing two unbiased dice.
Event
An event is a subset of the sample space. In other words, “of all the possible outcomes in the
sample space of an experiment, some outcomes satisfy a specified description, which we call an
event”
For instance, getting a head in tossing a coin is an event. If two coins are tossed, then getting at
least one head may be an event.
Trial
Trial is an attempt to produce an outcome of a random experiment. For example, if we toss a coin
or throw a die, we are performing trials.
Equally likely events
Events are said to be equally likely when we have no reason to expect one rather than the other.
Example, in tossing an unbiased coin the two events head or tail are equally likely because we
have no reason to expect head rather than tail.
Exhaustive events
The total number of sample points is known as exhaustive cases and is represented by the letter n.
in tossing a single coin, the exhaustive number of cases would be 2 and in the case of tossing two
coins, the exhaustive number of cases would be 4. Similarly, if n coins are thrown exhaustive cases
would be 2𝑛 . On the other hand, in rolling a single dice, the exhaustive number of cases would be
6 where as in the case of two dice, it would be 36.
Mutually exclusive events
Events are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint if the happening of any one of them precludes
or excludes the happening of all others in a trial. (If the occurrence of one event discards the
occurrence of remaining events).
For example, In throwing a die all the six faces numbered 1 to 6 are mutually exclusive since any
one of these faces comes, the possibility of others, in the same trial, is ruled out.
Sure events (or certain events)
An event whose occurrence is inevitable is called certain event. For example, getting a white ball
from the bag containing all while balls is a Sure event.
Impossible event (Empty set)
If an event cannot occur, when the random experiment is conducted, then that event is an
impossible event. For example, Getting a white ball from a bag containing all black balls is an
impossible event.
Uncertain events
An event is said to be uncertain if its happening is neither sure nor impossible. That is, the
happening of an uncertain event cannot be predicted. For example getting a white ball from a bag
containing white and black balls is uncertain.
Independent events
Two or more events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one of them in no way affects
the occurrence of the other or the others. Eg, In the tossing of a coin twice, the result of the second
tossing is not affected by the result of the first toss.
Dependent events
Two or more events are said to be dependent if the happening of one of them affects the happening
of the other. In the case of dependent events the chance of one event depends on the happening of
the other event.
Eg From a pack of 52 cards if one card is drawn then 51 cards are left. If another card is drawn
without replacing the first, the chance of the second draw is affected by the first draw. Therefore
drawing a king first and without replacing it, drawing again a king are dependent events.
Classical definition of Probability (Mathematical or Priori)
Classical definition is the oldest and simplest definition of probability. This is sometimes called
equally-likely events approach. It is also known by the name Laplace definition. From a practical
point of view it is the most useful definition of probability

Definition:
If a trial results in n mutually exclusive, equally likely and exhaustive cases and m of them are
favourable (m ≤ n) to the happening of an event A, then the probability of A is defined as
𝑚 no of favourable cases
P(A)= =
𝑛 Total number of cases

Obviously, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤1
Note:
If A is an impossible event, then P(A) = 0
If A is a sure event, then P(A)=1
If A is a random event, then 0< P(A) <1

Advantages of classical definition

 this gives a simple method of calculating probability
 This gives an exact value of probability
 We don’t have to practically conduct the random experiment to obtain the probability of
an event. Knowledge about the total number of cases and favorable number of cases is
enough.

Limitations of classical definition

 In the classical definition of probability only equally likely cases are taken into
consideration. If the events cannot be considered equally likely classical definition fails to
give good account of the concept of the probability.
 When n become infinite, this definition fails to give a measure for probability.
 If we deviating from the games of chances like tossing a coin, throwing a die etc.
this definition cannot be applied.
 It does not contribute much to the growth of the probability theory.
Problems
1. Two coins are tossed, what is the probability of getting (1) both heads (2) one head (3) at
least one head (4) No head
Ans:
Sample space is {(HH), (HT), (TH), (TT)}
1) P (both heads)=1/4
2) P (one head)=2/4
3) P (at least one head)=3/4
4) P (no head)=1/4
2. Three coins are tossed. What is the probability of getting
(i) all heads (ii) exactly one head (iii) exactly two heads (iv)at least one head
(v) at least two heads (vi) at most one head (vii) at most two heads (viii) No head.
Solution
When three coins are tossed, the possible outcomes are given by
S={HHH, HHT, HTH,THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
i) P(all heads)=1/8
ii) P(exactly one head)=3/8
iii) P(exactly two heads)=3/8
iv). P(at least one head)=7/8
v).P(at least two heads)=4/8
vi).P(at most one head)=4/8
vii) P(at most two heads)=7/8
viii) P(no head)=1/8
3.What is the probability that a leap year selected at random will contain 53
Sundays?
Solution
In a leap year there are 366 days consisting of 52 weeks plus2 more days. The following are the
possible combinations for these two days.
(i) Sunday and Monday
(ii) Monday and Tuesday
(iii) Tuesday and Wednesday
(iv) Wednesday and Thursday
(v) Thursday and Friday
(vi) Friday and Saturday
(vii) Saturday and Sunday.
For getting 53 Sundays in a leap year, out of the two days so obtained one should be a Sunday.
There are two
cases favorable for getting a Sunday out of the 7 cases.
Required probability = 2/7.
4. Two unbiased dice are thrown. Find the probability that
(1) Both the dice show the same number
(2) One die shows five
(3) First die shows five
(4) The total of the numbers on the dice is eight
(5) Total of the numbers on the dice is greater than 8
(6) A sum of 10
Ans:
1) 6/36 2) 10/36 3) 6/36
4) 5/36 5) 10/36 6) 3/36
5. In an experiment, two dice were rolled. Write the sample space and compute the probabilities
of the following events:
a) The number on the first dice is greater than the second
b) The number on both the dice are same.
c) The number on the second dice is the square of the number on the first dice.
d) The number on the first dice is odd and the second dice is even.
6. There are 17 balls numbered from 1 to 17 in a bag. If a person selects one at random what is
the probability that the number printed on the ball be an even number greater than 9?
7. A card is drawn from a pack of cards. What is the probability that it is
A black card
A king
A queen
A spade
A spade king
A king or queen
Permutations and Combinations
Permutation refers to the arrangement which can be made by taking some (say r) of things at a
time or all of ‘n’ things at a time with attention given to the order of arrangement of the selected
objects.
Suppose we want to arrange 3 students A,B, and c by choosing 2 of them at a time. This
arrangement can be done in the following ways:
AB,BC,CA, BA, CB and AC
The arrangement of 3 things taken 2 at a time is denoted by 3𝑃2
Therefore, 3𝑃2 = 6 = 3 × 2
Example, 4𝑃4 = 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24

7𝑃5 = 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 = 2520
Combination
A combination is a grouping or a selection or a collection of all or a part of given number of
things without reference to their order of arrangement.
if three letteres a,b,c are given, ab, bc, ca are the only combinations of the three things a,b,c
taken two at a time and is denoted as 3𝐶2
7×6×5
Example, 7𝐶3 = 1×2×3 = 35

10
10 × 9 × 8 × 7
𝐶4 = = 210
1×2×3×4

Problem
A box contains 8 red, 3 white, and 9 blue balls. if 3 balls are drawn at random. determine the
probability that
a) all three are blue
b) 2 red, and 1 is white
c) at least one is white
d) one of each colour is drawn
Ans:
Assume that the balls are drawn from the box one by one without replacement
a) P(all the three are blue)= 9𝐶3 / 20𝐶3 = 7/95
8𝐶 × 3𝐶
2 1
b) P( 2 red and 1 white)= 20𝐶
= 7/95
3
c) P( at least one is white)= 1- P( None is white) = 23/57
 d) P( one of each colour)= 18/95
Problem
if the letters of the word ‘REGULATIONS’ be arranged at random, what is the chance that there
will be exactly 4 letters between R and E?
Ans: 12/110= 6/55