Deutsche Bank

Chief Investment Office

P E R S P EC T I V E S
ECONOMIC AND ASSET CLASS OUTLOOK
3/2024

MACROECONOMICS FIXED INCOME EQUITIES

Growth pick-up Normal curves Solid earnings,
in 2025 returning high volatility
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Macroeconomics: Growth pick-up in 2025

while still supporting consumption. We expect inflation
− Growth: U.S. to re-accelerate in the course of 2025, to average 2.3% next year and the ECB to cut the deposit
Eurozone remaining at low levels. facility rate to 2.5% until September 2025.
− Inflation: Moving down but staying elevated.
− Rate cuts: Fed to follow the ECB. In Japan GDP growth reversed from a decline of -0.6% QoQ
in Q1 to an expansion of +0.8% in Q2. Private consumption
– which accounts for more than half of the economy –
The U.S. economy is still robust with annualised Q2 growth rose for the first time in five quarters after spring wage
of 3%, driven by solid consumption. That said, we expect negotiations delivered the highest pay increase in over
growth to moderate somewhat and then slowly regain 30 years. Inflation stood at 2.8% in July, for the third month
momentum due to solid private consumption and sound in a row. In 2025, we expect inflation and GDP growth to
investment expenditure as well as elevated deficit average at 2.0% and 1.2% respectively. The BoJ could
spending. For 2024 as a whole, we expect GDP to expand cautiously raise its key rate from the current 0.25% to 0.75%
by 2.4% and 1.7% in 2025. over the next twelve months.

After edging up in Q1 headline inflation started to decrease In China the economy expanded 4.7% YoY in Q2, slowing
and dipped below 3% in July. Month-on-month inflation has from 5.3% in Q1. The economy remains generally robust
eased noticeably in the previous months, and we expect an but is showing some signs of weakness. Retail sales came
average inflation rate of 2.3% for 2025 as a whole. We in at 2.7% YoY in July, which is rather low compared to the
expect the Fed to begin its easing cycle with a first rate double-digit growth rates in the 15 years before the
cut of 25 bps this month. Five further cuts of the same pandemic. We forecast GDP growth of 4.8% in 2024 and
magnitude should follow by the end of Q3 2025. At the 4.4% in 2025, and inflation in 2025 to average 1.7%.
longer end of the yield curve structural forces like deficit
spending and cyclical factors (reaccelerating economy in
2025) may keep rates elevated going forward.

In the Eurozone real GDP increased by 0.2% QoQ in Q2 -

easing from the 0.3% seen in Q1. The data indicates that
the region’s economy is still not recovering significantly.
However, the unemployment rate fell to 6.4% in July,
its lowest ever level since the start of the series in the
mid-1990s. Given the tight labour market we expect private
consumption to be the backbone of a slight increase in
economic growth in the region and GDP to expand by 0.7%
in 2024 and 1.0% in 2025. Overall, Eurozone potential
growth is very low and does not allow for stronger growth
rates.

On the price front, headline inflation dipped to 2.2% in

August, thereby reaching its lowest reading in three years.
Negotiated wage growth decreased mildly, easing potential
price pressures coming from the increase in real wages

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

2
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Fixed Income: Normal curves returning

the IG markets. The risks of IG spread widening should be
− Yield curve steepening underway. limited as both regions are expected to avoid recession.
− Deficit spending to keep pressure on the longer end.
− Carry to provide solid return potential. High yield (HY) default rates continue to hover at elevated
levels compared to last year, but recent data suggests some
stabilisation. The refinancing cost declined for B and BB
The U.S. is set to embark on a rate cutting cycle as the Fed issuers; however, it remains significantly elevated for CCC
gains confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path issuers, while fundamentals have weakened slightly.
towards its target level of 2%. The labour market has also Although mild spread widening is expected, as spreads have
continued its gradual easing from the extremely tight levels tightened beyond fundamentally justifiable levels, total
of last year. After more than 2 years of inversion, the U.S. returns should still remain attractive.
Treasury yield curve is normalising as rates have fallen
faster at the shorter end than at the longer end. But that EM sovereign spreads are likely to move sideways as
does not spell the end of elevated yields in our view. We economic growth is set to rebound in Eastern Europe
foresee a shallow cutting cycle as the economy is likely to and Latin America while remaining stable in most Asian
reaccelerate next year, limiting the downside for yields. In countries. However, uncertainties loom due to China’s
addition, a re-emergence of the debt ceiling debate and growth outlook, geopolitical risks, rising commodity prices,
risk from continued deficit spending should push the term and the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. Similarly, for
premium higher (September 2025, 10-year yield target: Asia Pacific credit (aggregate but ~90% corporate), spreads
4.05%; 2-year yield target: 3.60%). should remain rangebound as net issuance is likely to stay
negative and corporate default rates remain steady.
As in the U.S., significant progress has been made in taming Furthermore, both these markets offer an attractive carry.
inflation in the Eurozone. Growth in the Eurozone, however,
has been sluggish to date. This should allow the ECB to
continue loosening its monetary policy, helping the
steepening of the Bund yield curve which is on the cusp of
normalising. Longer-end yields are likely to stay elevated
due to fiscal imbalances in major economies alongside
occasional political volatility (September 2025, 10-year
yield target: 2.25%; 2-year yield target: 2.00%).

Italian spreads to Bunds may be susceptible to widening as

attention shifts to the viability of the government’s plan to
reduce the deficit and bring it in line with EU fiscal rules. The
strong carry may, however, attract more inflows to Italian
bonds, capping the spread widening.

Despite limited spread compression potential, investment

grade (IG) markets, in both USD and EUR, continue to see
sizeable inflows as investor demand for carry remains
strong. Steepening yield curves should free up cash sitting
in money markets, some of which is likely to find its way into

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

3
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Equities: Solid earnings, high volatility

some two-thirds of global semiconductor foundry capacity.
− Earnings growth becoming more broadly based. In Japan, Asia‘s main developed market (DM), major equity
− Small cap performance may pick up due to strong indices have a stronger home bias than in most other DMs
EPS growth. and are set to perform well on the back of increasing
− U.S elections and geopolitical issues may trigger domestic consumption expenditure.
short-term volatility.
While we think large caps will continue to perform well in
the U.S. and Europe and have decent return prospects over
Equities have continued their strong performance on the the long term, investors may consider adding small and mid
back of healthy earnings growth and expectations of a more caps as the changing interest rate environment and an
favourable interest rate environment and no recession in uptick in growth in 2025 are expected to boost profits for
either Europe or the U.S. going forward. After failing to more rate- and growth-sensitive smaller companies.
increase their earnings for a year or more, Small caps in
the U.S. as well as the S&P500 excluding the Magnificent 7 The upcoming U.S. presidential election may introduce
(Mag7), together with European markets recorded their first short-term uncertainties into global markets later this year
cumulative earnings growth in Q2. Performance is thus and potentially lead to sectoral shifts depending on the
becoming more broadly based rather than driven mainly by election outcome. In addition, geopolitical risks stemming
the Mega caps, and we expect this to continue. from the Middle East crisis and the Russia/Ukraine conflict
may trigger further market volatility. In general, we expect
The S&P 500 has done well so far this year. In H1 the more periods of elevated volatility going forward as the
Mag7 and other Mega caps were the main drivers of index great moderation and the era of negative interest rates are
performance, whereas since the start of H2 the contributors over.
have become more broadly based. Despite a mild decline
in Mag7 earnings growth in Q2, we expect their earnings to
continue rising at above-average rates. Valuations remain
stretched on a historical comparison but are backed by
fundamentals such as solid earnings growth expectations.
We expect annual earnings growth to remain at around
10% in the near term and the S&P 500 at 5,800 points by
end of Q3 2025.

The picture is similar in Europe with the STOXX Europe 600

performing well in H1, mainly driven by Large caps. Since H2
started Small cap performance has picked up and we expect
them to make a robust, sustained contribution to overall
index performance, especially on the back of higher earnings
growth and modest valuations in historical terms. We expect
the index to reach 540 points by end of September 2025.

In the Emerging Markets space, we prefer Asia due to its

growth momentum and importance for the AI theme, e.g.
tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan collectively make up

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

4
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Commodities: Gold glistening

deficits coupled with rising global money creation to remain
− Demand pressure and strong supply limiting bullish factors. Also, central banks will probably continue to
upside for oil prices. buy gold to diversify their foreign reserves, and retail
− Gold price potential buoyed further by the return investors in Asia are likely to maintain their focus on gold as
of retail inflows. an asset (September 2025 Gold target: USD 2,810/oz).
− Strong physical demand indicators for copper
to take centre stage. Copper prices remain subdued due to broader Chinese
economic weakness. However, strong physical demand
indicators for China are starting to take centre stage again.
Global oil demand growth expectations have been under Significant expansion of the high-efficiency EV charging
pressure as China’s manufacturing and construction infrastructure is underway, while NEV (new energy vehicle)
weakness weighs on its oil consumption. Major energy production had increased almost 29% YoY by July this year.
agencies have been downgrading their estimates with the Renewables capacity addition continues rapidly with a
IEA now projecting 0.3 mb/d lower total demand in 2025 recent report noting that the 339GW of capacity under
than it did back in April. OPEC also revised its demand construction in China is nearly double the total capacity
forecasts downwards recently. OPEC+ reacted to current being constructed in the rest of the world. Grid investment
weakness by postponing its planned production hike from is also accelerating, having jumped 24% YoY in H1 2024. On
October to December, which should help to counteract the the other hand, mine supply growth is likely to remain
strong non-OPEC+ supply growth. Going forward, thanks to subdued going forward (September 2025 Copper target:
the strong demand from Asia ex-China and the purchases USD 10,000/t).
for the strategic reserves in China and the U.S., the drag on
prices is likely to be minimal. The known unknown of
geopolitics remains a closely watched factor and may
potentially push prices higher (September 2025 Brent
target: USD 80/bbl).

The European carbon price has struggled to gain traction

as a combination of warm, windy and wet weather has
dampened the need for power generated from fossil fuels,
reducing their harmful emissions by almost 17% YTD.
The incremental supply this year from frontloading the
allowance auctions is likely to result in a supply surplus.
Nevertheless, the long-term gains should be supported by
supply tightness in the future and the introduction of the
carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) along with
the parallel phasing-out of free allowances for the sectors
covered by the CBAM.

Gold reached all-time highs recently on rising expectations

of Fed interest rate normalisation, a weaker USD, continued
purchases by some central banks and renewed buying
interest from ETF/ETC buyers. We expect rising fiscal

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

5
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Currencies: Volatility revisited

inflation high for longer, helping the Bank of Japan (BoJ)
− Imminent U.S. interest rate pivot may prompt hit its targets. After raising interest rates by 10 basis points
stronger price fluctuations. in March and 15 basis points in July, we anticipate the BoJ
− We expect gradual JPY appreciation due to will continue normalising rates in H1 2025, which should
narrowing yield differentials. narrow yield differentials. In addition, the pace of Fed rate
− Recent CNY rebound partly in response to the cuts is likely to influence the JPY’s potential appreciation.
unwinding of carry trades. However, we foresee limited scope for significant
appreciation due to the persistent substantial yield
differentials and negative real rates in Japan. We therefore
In contrast to H1, when most G10 currency movements were expect the JPY to appreciate against the USD only gradually
limited, Q3 has seen much stronger price movements to to USD/JPY 140 as of end-September 2025.
date. In particular, the unwinding of carry trades after the
key interest rate hike in Japan and the foreshadowing of the Structural issues, especially in the property sector, remain a
interest rate pivot by the Fed also triggered a sharp increase drag on China’s economy. Government measures are only
in volatility. likely to help in the medium term. The CNY has, however,
recently been supported by the unwinding of carry trades
With the interest rate pivot approaching in the U.S. and the and the pricing-in of Fed rate cuts. Since the PBoC also
unwinding of carry trades, the USD came under pressure wants to prevent a sharp appreciation or depreciation of the
against the EUR and fell to a 13-month low of around CNY, we expect the CNY will still be near its current level at
EUR/USD 1.12 in August. Whether the EUR has further the end of September 2025, i.e. USD/CNY 7.15.
appreciation potential is likely to depend on whether
economic growth in Europe can converge with that in the Over our forecast horizon, we highlight geopolitics and the
U.S. and how much the respective central banks lower key U.S. elections as potential sources of sharply increased
interest rates in the next twelve months - as this should have short-term volatility.
an impact on yields at the short end of the respective
curves. Since we believe that the market is currently pricing
in larger Fed rate cuts than appropriate, we expect a firmer
USD at EUR/USD 1.08 over the period under review.

The BoE’s rate cut cycle could be slower than the Fed’s. UK
headline inflation has already fallen to 2% but is expected to
rise again in the coming months, also due to adjustments to
energy price caps. Core inflation along with average wage
and salary growth remain elevated, as does service inflation.
Economic growth dynamics could continue to support the
GBP. We therefore see potential for the GBP to appreciate
moderately to GBP/USD 1.34 by the end of September
2025.

Japan’s economy bounced back in Q2, driven by a surge in

private consumption thanks to significant wage hikes that
revived real wage growth. This momentum could keep

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

6
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Appendix 1 Macroeconomic forecasts

Consensus
2024 2025 2024 (BBG*)

GDP growth rate (%)

U.S.1 2.4 1.7 2.5

Eurozone 0.7 1.0 0.7

Germany 0.1 1.0 0.1

France 1.2 0.9 1.2

Italy 0.7 0.8 1.0

Spain 2.5 1.2 2.0

Japan 0.0 1.2 0.1

China 4.8 4.4 4.9

World 3.1 3.2 3.0

Consumer price inflation (%)

U.S. 2.9 2.3 3.0

Eurozone 2.5 2.3 2.4

Germany 2.6 2.5 2.4

Japan 2.5 2.0 2.4

China 0.5 1.7 0.5

Unemployment rate (%)

U.S. 4.3 4.1 4.2

Eurozone 6.6 6.6 6.5

Germany 6.0 5.9 6.0

Japan 2.5 2.4 2.5

China 2
5.0 5.0 5.1

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)

U.S. -6.0 -5.9 -6.5

Eurozone -2.8 -2.7 -3.0

Germany -1.5 -1.0 -1.7

Japan -4.5 -3.0 -4.2

China 3
-13.3 -13.0 -4.8

*Bloomberg consensus. 1 For the U.S., GDP growth Q4/Q4 % is 1.5 % in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. 2 Urban unemployment
rate (end of period), not comparable to consensus data. 3 China fiscal deficit refers to augmented fiscal balance (widest
definition) and refers to IMF. It is not comparable with the consensus.

Source: Deutsche Bank AG, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of September 2024.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

7
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Appendix 2 Asset class forecasts

for end of September 2025
Sovereign bond yields (%) Equity indices

United States (2-Year U.S. Treasury) 3.60 United States (S&P 500) 5,800

United States (10-Year U.S. Treasury) 4.05 Germany (DAX) 20,000

United States (30-Year U.S. Treasury) 4.15 Eurozone (EURO STOXX 50) 5,100

Germany (2-Year German Bund) 2.00 Europe (STOXX Europe 600) 540

Germany (10-Year German Bund) 2.25 Japan (MSCI Japan) 1,760

Germany (30-Year German Bund) 2.50 Switzerland (SMI) 12,350

United Kingdom (10-Year UK Government) 4.00 United Kingdom (FTSE 100) 8,350

Japan (2-Year Japan Government) 0.70 Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) 1,140

Japan (10-Year Japan Government) 1.40 Asia ex. Japan (MSCI Asia ex. Japan) 740

Australia (MSCI Australia) 1,550

Benchmark rates (%)

United States (federal funds rate) 3.75-4.00 Commodities (USD)

Eurozone (deposit rate) 2.50 Gold (oz) 2,810

United Kingdom (repo rate) 3.75 Crude Oil (Brent Spot, bbl) 80

Japan (policy rate) 0.75 Copper (t) 10,000

China (1-year lending rate) 3.10 EU Carbon Allowances (Carbon Spot, t) 80

Currencies Corporate & EM bond spreads (bps)

EUR vs. USD 1.08 EUR IG Corp 95

USD vs. JPY 140 EUR HY 400

EUR vs. JPY 151 USD IG Corp 85

EUR vs. CHF 0.96 USD HY 375

EUR vs. GBP 0.84 Asia Credit 125

GBP vs. USD 1.34 EM Sovereign 390

USD vs. CNY 7.15

Source: Deutsche Bank AG; Data as of September 5, 2024.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

8
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Appendix 3 Historical performance

05.09.2019– 05.09.2020– 05.09.2021– 05.09.2022– 05.09.2023–
05.09.2020 05.09.2021 05.09.2022 05.09.2023 05.09.2024

Performance

S&P 500 15.2% 32.3% -13.5% 14.6% 22.4%

STOXX Europe 600 -6.2% 30.4% -12.4% 10.5% 12.1%

MSCI EM 9.6% 19.7% -26.5% 1.9% 9.2%

EURO STOXX 50 -6.4% 28.9% -16.9% 22.3% 12.8%

SMI 1.7% 21.7% -12.4% 1.3% 9.8%

DAX 5.9% 22.9% -19.1% 23.6% 17.8%

FTSE 100 -20.2% 23.1% 2.1% 2.1% 10.8%

MSCI Japan 5.9% 25.8% -4.4% 22.8% 10.7%

MSCI Australia -12.8% 26.6% -7.8% 7.9% 10.1%

MSCI Asia ex. Japan 16.2% 17.1% -26.5% 1.2% 9.6%

2-Year U.S. Treasury 3.3% 0.2% -4.0% 0.3% 6.2%

10-Year U.S. Treasury 9.4% -4.1% -13.7% -5.3% 8.6%

30-Year U.S. Treasury 16.1% -9.9% -24.8% -14.5% 10.4%

2-Year German Bund -1.0% -0.7% -3.4% -1.7% 3.8%

10-Year German Bund -1.0% -0.5% -13.7% -6.4% 3.1%

30-Year German Bund 0.8% -5.0% -35.6% -22.8% 8.1%

10-Year UK Government 3.2% -2.4% -14.7% -7.6% 9.2%

2-Year Japan Government -0.4% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2%

10-Year Japan Government -2.8% 0.4% -1.2% -0.3% -1.1%

EUR vs. USD 7.2% 0.5% -16.5% 8.1% 3.5%

USD vs. JPY -0.6% 3.2% 28.2% 5.1% -2.8%

EUR vs. JPY 6.5% 3.6% 7.1% 13.5% 0.5%

EUR vs. CHF -0.7% 0.4% -10.4% -2.0% -1.6%

EUR vs. GBP -0.3% -4.1% 0.6% -1.1% -1.2%

GBP vs. USD 7.5% 4.7% -17.0% 9.2% 4.7%

USD vs. CNY -4.3% -5.7% 7.4% 5.3% -2.9%

Gold (oz) 27.3% -5.5% -6.4% 12.6% 30.7%

Crude Oil (Brent Spot, bbl) -30.0% 70.2% 31.9% -6.0% -19.3%

Copper (t) 14.8% 40.6% -18.8% 10.9% 7.1%

Source: Deutsche Bank AG, Bloomberg Finance L.P., LSEG Datastream; Data as of September 5, 2024.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

9
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Glossary The Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of Great Britain.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the central bank of Japan.

Brent is a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing.

Bunds are federal bonds, i.e. German government bonds.

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a carbon tariff on imported carbon intensive products to the
European Union.

Carry trade refers to borrowing a currency or financial product at low interest rate and reinvesting in a currency or
financial product with a higher return.

CHF is the currency code for the Swiss Franc.

CNY is the currency code for the Chinese yuan.

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the price of a basket of products and services that is based on the typical
consumption of a private household.

The DAX is a blue-chip stock-market index consisting of the 40 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock
Exchange; other DAX indices include a wider range of firms.

The U.S. debt ceiling is a legislative limit on the amount of Federal debt that can be issued by the U.S. Treasury.

A developed market (DM) is a country that is advanced economically, with developed capital markets and high levels of
per capita income.

Earnings per share (EPS) are calculated as a companies‘ net income minus dividends of preferred stock all divided by the
total number of shares outstanding.

An emerging market (EM) is a country that has some characteristics of a developed market in terms of market efficiency,
liquidity and other factors, but does not meet all developed market criteria.

Exchange Traded Commodities (ETCs) are commodity focused Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are investment funds traded on stock exchanges.

EUR is the currency code for the euro, the currency of the Eurozone.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank for the Eurozone.

The EURO STOXX 50 tracks the performance of blue-chip stocks in the Eurozone and includes the super-sector leaders
in terms of market capitalization.

The Eurozone is formed of 20 European Union member states that have adopted the euro as their common currency and
sole legal tender.

The Fed funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend overnight to other depository institutions.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States. Its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets
to determine interest rate policy.

The Fed funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend overnight to other depository institutions.

The FTSE 100 tracks the performance of the 100 major companies trading on the London Stock Exchange.

The G10 comprises of Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the
United Kingdom and the United States.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

10
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Glossary GBP is the currency code for the British pound/sterling.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country‘s
borders in a specific time period.

One billion watts make one GW.

High yield (HY) bonds are higher-yielding bonds with a lower credit rating than investment-grade corporate bonds,
Treasury bonds and municipal bonds.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an intergovernmental agency studying energy-related issues.

An investment grade (IG) rating by a rating agency such as Standard & Poor‘s indicates that a bond is seen as having a
relatively low risk of default.

JPY is the currency code for the Japanese yen, the Japanese currency.

Magnificent 7 is a term for the most dominant tech companies. The group is made up of mega-cap stocks Apple,
Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Nvidia.

The MSCI Australia tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in Australia.

The MSCI Asia ex Japan captures large- and mid-cap representation across 2 of 3 developed-market countries
(excluding Japan) and 8 emerging-market countries in Asia.

The MSCI EM captures large and mid cap representation across 24 emerging markets countries.

The MSCI Japan measures the performance of around 320 large and mid-cap stocks drawn accounting for
about 85% of Japanese market capitalization.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international organization with the mandate
to “coordinate and unify the petroleum policies“ of its 12 members. The so-called “OPEC+“ brings in Russia and
other producers.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is the central bank of the People‘s Republic of China.

The S&P 500 includes 500 leading U.S. companies capturing approximately 80% coverage of available U.S. market
capitalization.

A spread is the difference in the quoted return on two investments, most commonly used in comparing bond yields.

The STOXX Europe 600 includes 600 companies across 17 European countries.

The Swiss Market Index (SMI) includes 20 large and mid-cap stocks.

TOPIX refers to the Tokyo Stock Price Index.

Treasuries are bonds issued by the U.S. government.

U.S. is the United States.

USD is the currency code for the U.S. Dollar.

Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading-price series over time.

The yield curve shows the different rates for bonds of differing maturities but the same credit quality.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

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PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Important General
This document may not be distributed in Canada or Japan. This document is intended for retail or professional clients

note only. This document is being circulated in good faith by Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft, its branches (as permitted in
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This material is for your information only and is not intended as an offer, or recommendation or solicitation of an offer to
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provide any investment service or investment advice, or to provide any research, investment research or investment
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All materials in this communication are meant to be reviewed in their entirety.

If a court of competent jurisdiction deems any provision of this disclaimer unenforceable, the remaining provisions
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This document and all information included herein are provided “as is”, “as available” and no representation or warranty
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Unless otherwise indicated in this document, all statements of opinion reflect the current assessment of Deutsche
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In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

12
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Important protection schemes and not guaranteed, including by Deutsche Bank. This document may not be reproduced or
circulated without Deutsche Bank’s express written authorisation. Deutsche Bank expressly prohibits the distribution

note and transfer of this material to third parties. Deutsche Bank accepts no liability whatsoever arising from the use or
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The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries,
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or prediction as to future performance. Further information is available upon investor’s request.

Deutsche Bank AG is a stock corporation (“Aktiengesellschaft”) incorporated under the laws of the Federal Republic of
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(as amended from time to time) or otherwise. This document may only be distributed to ”Professional Investors”, as
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This document has been sent to you at your own request. This presentation is not for general circulation to the public in
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For Residents of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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Prospective subscribers of the securities should conduct their own due diligence on the accuracy of any information
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For Residents of Qatar

This document has not been filed with, reviewed or approved by the Qatar Central Bank, the Qatar Financial Markets
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exchange or under any laws of the State of Qatar. This document does not constitute a public offering and is addressed

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

13
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Important only to the party to whom it has been delivered. No transaction will be concluded in Qatar and any inquiries or
applications should be received, and allotments made, outside Qatar.

note For Residents of the Kingdom of Bahrain

This document does not constitute an offer for sale of, or participation in, securities, derivatives or funds marketed in
Bahrain within the meaning of Bahrain Monetary Agency Regulations. All applications for investment should be
received and any allotments should be made, in each case from outside of Bahrain. This document has been prepared
for private information purposes of intended investors only who will be institutions. No invitation shall be made to the
public in the Kingdom of Bahrain and this document will not be issued, passed to, or made available to the public
generally. The Central Bank (CBB) has not reviewed, nor has it approved, this document or the marketing of such
securities, derivatives or funds in the Kingdom of Bahrain.

For Residents of South Africa

This document does not constitute or form a part of any offer, solicitation or promotion in South Africa. This document
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Republic of South Africa.

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Brussels Branch, is also supervised in Belgium by the Financial Services and Markets Authority (“FSMA”, www.fsma.be).
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0418.371.094, RPM/RPR Brussels. Further details are available on request or can be found at www.deutschebank.be.

For Residents of the United Kingdom

This document is a financial promotion as defined in Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and is
approved by and communicated to you by DB UK Bank Limited. DB UK Bank Limited is a member of the Deutsche Bank
group and is registered.at Company House in England & Wales with company number 315841 with its registered Office:
21 Moorfields, London, United Kingdom, EC2Y 9DB. DB UK Bank Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation
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Federal Republic of Germany and its members’ liability is limited.

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This material is intended for: Professional Investors in Hong Kong. Furthermore, this material is provided to addressee
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The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. You are advised to
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of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice.

This document has not been approved by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong (“SFC”), nor has a copy
of this document been registered by the Registrar of Companies in Hong Kong, unless specified otherwise. The
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For Residents of Singapore

This material is intended for: Accredited Investors / Institutional Investors in Singapore. Furthermore, this material is
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In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

14
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Important For Residents of the United States of America

In the United States, brokerage services are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and

note registered investment adviser, which conducts securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is
a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Banking and lending services are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company
Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. In respect of the United States, see earlier
statements made in this document. Deutsche Bank makes no representations or warranties that the information
contained herein is appropriate or available for use in countries outside of the United States, or that services discussed
in this document are available or appropriate for sale or use in all jurisdictions, or by all counterparties. Unless registered,
licensed as otherwise may be permissible in accordance with applicable law, none of Deutsche Bank or its affiliates is
offering any services in the United States or that are designed to attract US persons (as such term is defined under
Regulation S of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended).This United States-specific disclaimer will be
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provisions that would mandate the application of the law of another jurisdiction.

For Residents of Germany

This information is advertising. The texts do not meet all legal requirements to ensure the impartiality of investment and
investment strategy recommendations or financial analyses. There is no prohibition for the compiler or for the company
responsible for the compilation to trade with the respective financial instruments before or after the publication of
these documents.

General information on financial instruments is contained in the brochures „Basic Information on Securities and Other
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Past performance or simulated performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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The investments mentioned in this document are not being offered to the Indian public for sale or subscription. This
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1st , 1993 n. 385 and subject to the direction and coordination activity of Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main
(Germany).

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Registered in the Mercantile Registry of Madrid, Volume 28100, Book 0, Folio 1, Section 8, Sheet M506294, Registration
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In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

15
PERSPECTIVES 3/2024

Important For Residents of Austria

This document is distributed by Deutsche Bank AG Vienna Branch, registered in the commercial register of the Vienna
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Any reproduction, representation, distribution or redistribution, in whole or in part, of the contents of this document in
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in any manner whatsoever, is prohibited. This document may not be reproduced or distributed without our written
permission.

© 2024 Deutsche Bank AG. All rights reserved.

Puplication date: September 9, 2024

Image credit: Getty Images

055570 090924

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or
target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future
returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this
nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come
with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was
produced in September 2024.

16