Blog Post

Ghana’s December 7 Polls:

Political Landscape Ahead of Presidential Elections and Potential Outcomes
By: Paul Osei-Kuffour

Introduction
As December 7 approaches, Ghanaians are gearing up to elect a new president. This will be the
ninth (9th) round of national elections since 1992, when the country returned to multi-party
democracy under the Fourth Republic. Despite the high level of interest expressed by twenty-
seven (27) political parties and independent candidates who registered their intent with the
electoral management body, the Electoral Commission (EC) validated and cleared thirteen (13)
aspirants to contest the presidential election. The final ballot list includes nine (9) political parties
and four independent candidates.
Voting will take place at 38,622 voting stations in a total of 33,367 polling stations. There are
approximately 18 million registered voters expected to participate in the election, according to the
EC. So far, the EC has completed the limited voter registration exercise, vote transfer, the
provisional voter register exhibition, candidate nomination, and the filing process. As the election
draws closer and the curtains draw on the second term of President Akuffo Addo, this paper
explores the electoral landscape in Ghana, drawing on insights from the sub-region, key issues
engaging the attention of stakeholders, political parties, and citizens ahead of the election, and
possible outcomes of the presidential election.
Elections are a necessary component of democracy, as they confer legitimacy and authority onto
elected representatives and leaders. Beyond providing citizens with a platform to demand
accountability, elections also enable them to engage politicians and political parties on their policy
options and alternatives and measure them against their goals and expectations. Recent African
elections, however, have offered highly worrying moments for the continent, as incumbents and
conspirators use it as a medium to consolidate and expand their hold on state power. As an
election observer with the West Africa Democracy Solidarity Network our reports have raised
many concerns about the quality of elections in West Africa. In Nigeria, the Independent National
Election Commission (INEC) introduced the Results Viewing (IReV) portal to promote
transparency and inclusion in the collation of results. Unfortunately, on election day, it
malfunctioned few hours after voting had ended. Also, in Sierra Leone, the 2023 presidential
election result was disputed by the opposition and some civil society coalitions. The demand for
the release of disaggregated results from polling stations were denied by the Electoral
Commission of Sierra Leone (ECSL). Indeed, the 2024 Global State of Democracy Report on
“Strengthening the Legitimacy of Elections in a Time of Radical Uncertainty” recognizes these
critical concerns. The report notes that disputes about the credibility of elections mainly center on
voting irregularities and vote counting.
Elsewhere on the continent, in countries such as Tunisia and Tanzania, leading members of the
opposition parties are facing harassment, intimidation, abduction and killing as they get close to
organizing their presidential elections. As Ghana goes to the polls in December, what is at stake
for the country and the future of elections and democracy in West Africa?

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Heightened Tension and Warning Signs

Generally, elections in Ghana have been primarily described by local and international observers
as free and fair. However, like all previous eight (8) elections, the December polls will be taking
place in a highly polarized environment, with the electoral landscape primarily dominated by the
two major political parties: The New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress
(NDC). As has become the norm under the Fourth Republic, the two parties have left little to no
space for any other party or independent candidate to improve their electoral fortunes in the
contest. Over the years, the EC has introduced key reforms to improve the credibility of elections
and thus reduce tensions, such as the biometric voter register and voter verification. However,
other factors, such as the prevalent practice of “winner takes all politics” continues to thrive,
heightening the tensions in local and national politics. Political patronage and an unwritten but
implicit settlement on an eight-year alternation of power between the two major parties have
exacerbated the issue and further entrenched their duopoly. The 2024 election presents a unique
challenge to this implicit arrangement, further driving up the stakes. The NPP’s determination to
break the two-term power alternation convention with the opposition NDC in a bid to stay in
government for a third term is a key driver of tension in this election. On the other hand, the NDC
is bent on maintaining the status quo and has poised itself to wrestle power from the NPP after
eight (8) years in opposition. Additionally, the NDC’s desire for power and change finds
convergence in the wish of their flagbearer, who sees this moment as his final attempt to reclaim
power and complete a second term after serving only four years in power.
Although attacks on the Electoral Commission (EC) are common during election cycles, their
heightened intensity this time around threatens the EC's legitimacy, credibility and
integrity. Ahead of the 2024 election, the EC has been criticized for the cost of the biometric
software and services procured, the stolen laptops and biometric verification device from its
custody, and the decision to limit the voter registration to only holders of the Ghana Card, a
directive which was subsequently reviewed to include the guarantor system. Other concerns
include the restriction of the limited voter registration to the EC district offices and hard to reach
locations as opposed to the polling stations. Finally, the EC’s rejection of the NDC's petition for
an independent forensic audit of the provisional voter register has generated huge debate among
political parties and stakeholders.
Another troubling issue ahead of the election is the looming threat by the NDC to reject the peace
pact. The opposition’s decision is informed by what it claims to be a lack of action by the state
against perpetrators of the 2020 Ayawaso by-election and the denial of justice for victims of that
violence. The disaffection by the NDC with the government’s white paper from the Commission
of Inquiry has not helped matters in this regard. The party has also strongly indicated further its
decision not to resort to the court should they have reservations about the final presidential
election results declared by the Electoral Commission.

Campaigns

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The NPP and NDC have officially launched their campaigns and manifestos. Both parties have
targeted various demographic groups with specific policies. Young voters and women remain an
integral component of the campaign by the two political parties, promising to provide them with
jobs through digital literacy, skills training, and funds for start-ups and the informal sector. The
two parties have a lot of similarities in terms of their messages with the economy and job creation
being central to their campaign. The NPP promises bold solutions to the economic challenges,
while the NDC is determined to reset the economy and ensure fiscal discipline. In some regard,
a fundamental difference between the two sets of promises is the NPP's priority for digitalization
and a formal economy and the NDC's 24-hour economy. Perhaps, the outcome of the election
will determine which policy won the hearts of voters.

Potential Outcomes

Several polls have been conducted to predict the election outcome. The Global Info Analytics
National Opinion Poll conducted in July 2024 projected the NDC (51.1%) ahead of the NPP
(38.2%). Another poll released in June by a political scientist and election pollster had exciting
findings. Whereas the survey found the NDC leading in popularity (with 38.8%) as the political
party electorates are likely to support in the coming election, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (NPP)
leads as the preferred Presidential Candidate with 38.9%, closely followed by John Dramani
Mahama (NDC) with 36.1%. The poll also recorded a very high number of undecided voters
(24.1%) who may abstain if they remain undecided on the election day. The expectation is that
the undecided voters could vote for any of the smaller political parties or independent candidates
increasig the probability of a runoff.
But what are some of the deciding factors for the 2024 election?
The NPP and the NDC have their traditional strongholds. Since 2000, both parties have secured
at least 44% of the valid votes cast in every election, confirming that Ghana operates as a two-
party state. The two major political parties have each had 16 years in government since 1992,
when Ghana returned to multi-party democracy with power alternating every eight years, as in
the 2000, 2008, and 2016 elections. Hence, if this trend prevails as the NPP concludes its eight-
year stay in office, the odds could be in favor of the NDC.
Interestingly, the two leading presidential aspirants both hail from the northern part of the country.
This has improved the NPP’s performance in the northern regions despite being a stronghold of
the NDC. The NDC’s dominance in the North will be tested and will be crucial in determining the
outcome of the election.
Nevertheless, the June polls also noted some of the deciding factors for the 2024 elections as the
candidate's competency (50.3%), track record (22.5%), and party affiliation (19.2%). As the
economy and job creation remain a major determinant for the election, the big test would be
whether voters will trust the NPP to resolve the economic challenges or defer to the NDC for
solutions.

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Conclusion
Unlike other democracies, where the civic space is restricted and the opposition political parties
are confronted by severe attacks and intimidation, Ghana’s electoral environment has been
progressive despite the existing challenges. There are red flags ahead of the election which
unresolved could affect the integrity of the polls. In the case of the complaints about the provisional
voter register, the EC's determination to dialogue with the NDC, and all other stakeholders to
address their concerns before the release of the Final Voter Register is reassuring. A credible
register is key in determining the integrity of the election.
The election is taking place in a very jittery political environment heightened by the NDC’s refusal
to sign the peace pact and boycott the court in resolving any grievances that may arise during the
election. The administrative process though commendable has limitations and may require the
court's intervention if the parties remain unsatisfied. Whereas the signing of the peace pact is
symbolic and not legally binding, it would help to build trust and reduce the tension and the threat
of electoral violence. Indeed, the signing of the Farmington Declaration on election peace in
Liberia improved the political climate. As a beacon of democracy, Ghana should not be an outlier
but instead accord fidelity to the convention, which is gradually becoming a regional norm.
ECOWAS and other supranational institutions must intervene to resolve these matters.
The EC's role in ensuring transparency in all its processes, most importantly in the results collation
and declaration process, is critical. The institution also needs to be open in addressing complaints
and grievances before declaring the final presidential election results. With barely eight weeks
into the election, the outcome of the elections hangs in the balance despite pre-election polls
tipping the opposition party in the lead. The possibility of a run-off, like in the 2000 and 2008
elections, where the incumbent had served two terms, cannot be ruled out.
Certainly, the outcome of the 2024 election will be essential in testing the maturity and resilience
of democracy in Ghana and West Africa. Within the democratic discourse in Africa and politics in
West Africa, Ghana is considered a stable democracy and plays a crucial leadership role in
promoting peace and security in the region. Currently, it hosts the secretariat of the Africa
Continental Free Trade Agreement (AFCTA), which aims to deepen economic integration and
trade in Africa. Ghana is also an influential and respected member of West Africa's economic
community (ECOWAS), which is experiencing a surge in democratic backsliding. After eight (8)
successful elections and thirty (32) years of uninterrupted democracy, the region remains hopeful
of a peaceful, free, and fair election in Ghana.

Paul Osei-Kuffour is the Coordinator, West Africa Democracy Solidarity

Network (WADEMOS) and Programs Manager, Ghana Center for
Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana)
Email: p.osei@wademosnetwork.org

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