Course STA100 Probability Semester Monsoon Semester 2024

Faculty Name(s) Dinesh Barot, Loyimee Gogoi, Vinay Contact dinesh.barot@ahduni.edu.in, loyimee.gogoi@ahduni.edu.in,
Vachharajani, Virali Vora vinay.vachharajani@ahduni.edu.in, voravirali@gmail.com

School AMSOM Credits 3

GER Category: Mathematical and Physical Teaching Pedagogy P/NP Course: Can not be taken as P/NP
Sciences Enable:NO

Schedule
Section 2 09:30 am to 11:00 am Thu 01-08-24 to 26-11-24

09:30 am to 11:00 am Tue 01-08-24 to 26-11-24

Section 1 11:00 am to 12:30 pm Mon 01-08-24 to 26-11-24

11:00 am to 12:30 pm Fri 01-08-24 to 26-11-24

Section 3 11:00 am to 12:30 pm Tue 01-08-24 to 26-11-24

11:00 am to 12:30 pm Thu 01-08-24 to 26-11-24

Section 4 04:00 pm to 05:30 pm Mon 01-08-24 to 26-11-24

04:00 pm to 05:30 pm Fri 01-08-24 to 26-11-24

Prerequisite MAT142 Introductory Calculus
OR
MAT100 Calculus and Differential Equations/MAT100 Multivariate Calculus
OR
MAT100 Calculus and Differential Equations/MAT100 Multivariate Calculus & MAT100 Calculus and Differential Equations/MAT100
Multivariate Calculus

Antirequisite Not Applicable

Corequisite Not Applicable

Course Description Probability Theory is the study of chance. It forms an important pillar of which statistics & data science have been built.

This course is an introduction to probability for a diverse audience. The course covers the fundamental concepts & basic examples,
assuming no prior knowledge of the subject.

The major topics include: Discrete & Continuous sample spaces & probability; random variables, distribution, independence,
expectation, conditional expectations & probabilities, generating functions & limit theorems.

Course Objectives The aim of this course is to teach students to build

An understanding of the basic theories & concepts of Probability in everyday life.

The ability to critically analyse the data in any given situation and arrive at the best estimate for the decision to be made.
The foundation stones for students to become data driven decision makers in their future roles as manager, entrepreneurs,
researchers, policy makers etc.

Learning Outcomes At the end of this course, students will be able to:

Display their understanding of the inherent uncertainty in everyday situations

Analyse the available data and use their knowledge of probability theory to arrive at the best possible decisions across various
disciplines
Communicate their understanding of the data and their decisions in a clear & precise manner.
Pursue advanced topics related to probability, statistics, data science & analytics.
Pedagogy Lectures & Discussions based around problem solving in the session. Every session will involve hands-on problem solving on every
topic in the course outline

Expectation From Attend all the classes and do the assignments

Students

Assessment/Evaluation Mid-Semester Examination:

Mid-Semester - 20%
End Semester Examination:
End-Semester - 30%
Other Components:
Assignment - 20%
Class Participation - 10%
Group Project - 20%

Attendance Policy As per Ahmedabad University Policy.

Project / Assignment Assignment - 1 and Assignment - 2 will be given in the first half of the semester while Assignment - 3 and Assignment - 4 will be given
Details in the second half of the semester.

Course Material Text Book(s)

A First Course in Probability, Sheldon Ross, 10th edition Edition, Pearson Education, ISBN: ISBN : 9789356064034, Year: 2022,

Reference Book
Probability and Statistics, Degroot & Schervish, 4th Edition, Pearson Education, ISBN: 978-9332573871, Year: 2016,
John E. Freund's Mathematical Statistics with Applications, Irwin Miller, 8th Edition, Pearson Education, ISBN: 9789332519053,
Year: 2013,
Introduction to Probability, Grinstead & Snell, 2nd Edition, Pearson Education, ISBN: 978-0821848579, Year: 2009,
Probability and Statistical Inference., Hogg, Tannis, and Zimmerman., 9th Edition Edition, Pearson (HTZ),

Additional Information
 Session Plan

NO. TOPIC TITLE TOPIC & SUBTOPIC DETAILS READINGS,CASES,ETC. ACTIVITIES IMPORTANT
DATES

1 Introduction to Set Theory Introduction Class Material Lectures & Problem Solving
Probability

2 Introduction to Operations of Set Theory and Interpretation of Class Material Lectures & Problem Solving
Probability Probability

3 Introduction to Counting Methods, Combinatorial Methods Textbook - Chapter 1 Lectures & Problem Solving
Probability

4 Introduction to Combinatorial Methods & Multinomial Textbook- Chapter 1 Lectures & Problem Solving
Probability Coefficients

5 Probability Concept of Probability & Axioms of Probability: Textbook - Chapter 2 Lectures & Problem Solving;
Theorems of Probability: Mutually Exclusive
and Exhaustive events, Applicarions.

6 Conditional Concept of Conditional Probability; Textbook - Chapter 3 Lecture; Solving Problems in

Probability Multiplicatiive Rule for Conditional Class.
Probabilities; Law of Total Probability,
Applicarions.

7 Conditional Definition of Independent Events; Textbook - Chapter 3 Lectures & Problem Solving
Probability Independence & Conditional Probability;
Mutually Independent Events; Conditionally
Independent Events, Applicarions.

8 Conditional Definition of Bayes’ Theorem; Prior and Textbook - Chapter 3 Lecture; Solving Problems in
Probability Posterior Probabilities; Applications. Class. QUIZ 1

9 Random Variables Random Variable; Definition and Types of Textbook - Chapter 4 Lecture; Solving Problems in
and Distributions Random variable: Discrete Random Variable Class. ASSIGNMENT 1
and Continuous Random Variable
10 Random Variables Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable; Textbook - Chapter 5 Lectures & Problem Solving:
and Distributions Probability Distribution Function; Cumulative
Distribution Function: Examples of Discrete
Distributions.

11 Random Variables Distribution of a Continuous Random Variable; Textbook - Chapter 5 Lectures & Problem Solving
and Distributions Probability Distribution Function; Cumulative
Distribution Function: Examples of Continuous
Distributions.

12 Random Variables Bivariate Discrete Probability Distributions: Textbook - Chapter 6 Lectures & Problem Solving
and Distributions Joint Distributions; Marginal Distributions,
Conditional Distributions: Definition and
Examples

13 Random Variables Bivariate Discrete Probability Distributions: Textbook - Chapter 6 Lectures & Problem Solving
and Distributions Joint Distributions; Marginal Distributions,
Conditional Distributions: Definition and
Examples

14 Random Variables Bivariate Continuous Probability Distributions: Textbook - Chapter 6 Lectures & Problem Solving
and Distributions Joint Distributions; Marginal Distributions,
Conditional Distributions: Definition and
Examples

15 Mid-Semester
Examination

16 Random Variables Bivariate Continuous Probability Distributions: Textbook - Chapter 7 Lectures & Problem Solving
and Distributions Joint Distributions; Marginal Distributions,
Conditional Distributions: Definition and
Examples

17 Expectation Expectation of a Random Variable; Properties Textbook - Chapter 7 Lecture; Solving Problems in
of Expectation ; Examples Class. ASSIGNMENT 2

18 Expectation Variance and Moments : Examples Textbook - Chapter 7 Lectures & Problem Solving
19 Expectation Mean, Median, Covariance and Correlation : Textbook - Chapter 7 Lectures & Problem Solving
Examples

20 Expectation Conditional Expectation and Examples Textbook - Chapter 7 Lectures & Problem Solving

21 Expectation Conditional Expectation and Examples Textbook - Chapter 7 Lectures & Problem Solving

22 Probability Introduction: Bernoulli and Binomial Textbook - Chapter 4 Lectures & Problem Solving
Distributions Distributions; Poisson Distributions :
Determining Probabilities using these
distribution

23 Probability Introduction: Bernoulli and Binomial Textbook - Chapter 4 Lectures & Problem Solving:
Distributions Distributions; Poisson Distributions :
Determining Probabilities using these
distributions

24 Probability Introduction: Normal Distributions and Textbook - Chapter 5 Lecture; Solving Problems in
Distributions Standard Normal Distribution ; Determining Class. Quiz 2
Probabilities using these distribution

25 Probability Introduction: Normal Distributions and Textbook - Chapter 5 Lectures & Problem Solving
Distributions Standard Normal Distribution ; Determining
Probabilities using these distribution

26 Probability Bivariate Normal Distributions Textbook - Chapter 5 Lecture; Solving Problems in

Distributions Class. QUIZ 3

27 Large Sample Introduction to Law of Large Numbers and I Textbook - Chapter 8 Lectures & Problem Solving
Central Limit Theorem

28 Review and
Reflection

29 Review and
Reflection
30 End-Semester
Examination