EarningsInsight 032124

EARNINGS INSIGHT
John Butters Media Questions/Requests

VP, Senior Earnings Analyst media_request@factset.com
jbutters@factset.com
March 21, 2024
Author’s Note: The FactSet Earnings Insight report is being published one day early on March 21. The next
edition of the report will also be published on day early on March 28.
Key Metrics
 Earnings Growth: For Q1 2024, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 3.4%. If
3.4% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the third-straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth
for the index.
 Earnings Revisions: On December 31, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for
Q1 2024 was 5.7%. Seven sectors are expected to report lower earnings today (compared to December 31) due to
downward revisions to EPS estimates.
 Earnings Guidance: For Q1 2024, 78 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 33 S&P 500
companies have issued positive EPS guidance.
 Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.9. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average
(19.0) and above the 10-year average (17.7).
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EARNINGS INSIGHT
Table of Contents
Commentary
Key Metrics 1
Table of Contents 2
FactSet Promotion: FactSet FOCUS 3
Topic of the Week: 4
Overview 7
Earnings Revisions 8
Earnings Guidance 9
Earnings Growth 10
Revenue Growth 11
Net Profit Margin 12
Forward Estimates & Valuation 13
Charts
Q423 Earnings & Revenue Scorecard 14

Q423 Earnings & Revenue Surprises 15
Q423 Earnings & Revenue Growth 18
Q423 Net Profit Margin 20
CY23 Earnings & Revenue Growth 21
Q124 EPS Guidance 22
Q124 EPS Revisions 23
Q124 Earnings & Revenue Growth 24
FY23 / FY24 EPS Guidance 25
Geographic Revenue Exposure 28
Bottom-Up EPS Estimates 29
Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio 31
Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio 33
Target & Ratings 34
EARNINGS INSIGHT
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Topic of the Week:

Industry Analysts Project 7% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over the Next 12 Months
After closing at a record-high value yesterday of 5,224.62, where do industry analysts believe the price of the S&P 500 will
go from here?
Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a price increase of 7.0% over the next twelve months. This
percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index as of yesterday
(March 20). The bottom-up target price is calculated by aggregating the median target price estimates (based on company-
level estimates submitted by industry analysts) for all the companies in the index. On March 20, the bottom-up target price
for the S&P 500 was 5,589.06, which was 7.0% above the closing price of 5,224.62.
At the sector level, the Health Care (+10.2%) and Real Estate (+10.0%) sectors are expected to see the largest price
increases, as these two sectors had the largest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing
price on March 20. On the other hand, the Materials (+1.0%) and Industrials (+2.5%) sectors are expected to see the
smallest price increases, as these two sectors had the smallest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and
the closing price on March 20.
At the company level, the ten stocks in the S&P 500 with the largest upside and downside differences between their median
target price and closing price (on March 20) can be found on page 6.
How accurate have the industry analysts been in predicting the future value of the S&P 500?
Historically, analysts have overestimated the (month-end) closing price of the index by about 3% to 8% on average over
the past 20 years, depending on the time frame. Over the past five years, industry analysts have overestimated the price
of the index by 4.6% on average (using month-end values). Over the past ten years, industry analysts have overestimated
the price of the index by 2.9% on average (using month-end values). Over the past fifteen years, industry analysts have
overestimated the price of the index by 5.4% on average (using month-end values). Over the past twenty years, industry
analysts have overestimated the price of the index by 8.3% on average (using month-end values).
However, analysts have underestimated the closing price of the index for the past few months. On March 31, 2023, the
bottom-up target price was 4,635.48. Nearly one year later (on March 20, 2024), the S&P 500 closing price was 5,224.62.
Based on yesterday’s closing price, industry analysts underestimated the closing price at the end of March 2024 by about
11% nearly one-year ago.
EARNINGS INSIGHT
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Difference Between Median Target Price & Closing Price: Top 10 (Source: FactSet)
Company Target Closing Diff ($) Diff (%)
First Solar, Inc. 225.00 151.02 73.98 49.0%
Caesars Entertainment Inc 62.00 41.74 20.26 48.5%
AES Corporation 22.00 15.54 6.46 41.6%
Insulet Corporation 234.66 167.20 67.46 40.3%
Boeing Company 262.00 187.78 74.22 39.5%
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. Series A 12.00 8.74 3.26 37.3%
Biogen Inc. 293.50 218.15 75.35 34.5%
Incyte Corporation 77.00 58.24 18.76 32.2%
Zoetis, Inc. Class A 224.00 170.99 53.01 31.0%
Aptiv PLC 103.50 79.01 24.49 31.0%
Difference Between Median Target Price & Closing Price: Bottom 10 (Source: FactSet)
Company Target Closing Diff ($) Diff (%)
Fastenal Company 63.00 77.66 -14.66 -18.9%
Steel Dynamics, Inc. 119.50 142.72 -23.22 -16.3%
WestRock Company 42.00 49.44 -7.44 -15.0%
Robert Half Inc. 70.00 80.19 -10.19 -12.7%
Airbnb, Inc. Class A 145.00 164.71 -19.71 -12.0%
PACCAR Inc 107.00 121.45 -14.45 -11.9%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation 175.00 197.75 -22.75 -11.5%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. 108.50 119.57 -11.07 -9.3%
Caterpillar Inc. 326.00 356.45 -30.45 -8.5%
T. Rowe Price Group 108.00 118.00 -10.00 -8.5%
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Q1 Earnings Season: By The Numbers

Overview
While analysts have been less pessimistic in their estimate revisions for S&P 500 companies for the first quarter compared
to recent averages, companies have been more pessimistic in their earnings outlooks for the first quarter compared to
recent averages. As a result, estimated earnings for the S&P 500 for the first quarter are lower today compared to
expectations at the start of the quarter. However, on a year-over-year basis, the index is expected to report earnings growth
for the third-straight quarter.
In terms of estimate revisions for companies in the S&P 500, analysts have lowered earnings estimates for Q1 2024 by a
smaller margin than average. On a per-share basis, estimated earnings for the first quarter have decreased by 2.6% since
December 31. This decrease is smaller than the 5-year average (-3.7%) and the 10-year average (-3.4%).
In terms of guidance, both the number and percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q1 2024
are higher than average. At this point in time, 111 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for Q1 2024, Of these
companies, 78 have issued negative EPS guidance and 33 have issued positive EPS guidance. The number of companies
issuing negative EPS guidance is above the 5-year average (58) and above the 10-year average (62). The percentage of
S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q1 2024 is 70% (78 out of 111), which is also above the 5-year
average of 59% and above the 10-year average of 63%.
Because of the downward revisions to earnings estimates by analysts and the negative EPS guidance issued by
companies, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for Q1 2024 is lower now relative to the start of the first
quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report (year-over-year) earnings growth of 3.4%, compared to the
estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of 5.7% on December 31. If 3.4% is the actual growth rate for the quarter,
it will mark the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.
Six of the eleven sectors are projected to report year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Utilities, Information
Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. On the other hand, four sectors are predicted
to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy and Materials sectors. One sector (Industrials) is expected
to report flat (0.0%) year-over-year earnings.
In terms of revenues, analysts have also decreased their estimates during the quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is expected
to report (year-over-year) revenue growth of 3.6%, compared to the expectations for revenue growth of 4.3% on December
31. If 3.6% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 14 th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for
the index.
Eight sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Communication Services and
Information Technology sectors. On the other hand, three sectors are predicted to report a year-over-year decline in
revenues, led by the Materials sector.
Looking ahead, analysts expect (year-over-year) earnings growth rates of 9.3%, 8.4%, and 17.4% for Q2 2024, Q3 2024,
and Q4 2024, respectively. For CY 2024, analysts are calling for (year-over-year) earnings growth of 10.9%.
The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 20.9, which is above the 5-year average (19.0) and above the 10-year average (17.7).
It is also above the forward P/E ratio of 19.5 recorded at the end of the fourth quarter (December 31).
During the upcoming week, five S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report results for the first quarter.
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Earnings Revisions: Energy and Materials Sectors Have Seen Largest Decreases in EPS Estimates
No Change in Estimated Earnings Growth Rate for Q1 This Week

During the past week, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q1 2024 remained unchanged at 3.4%.
The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q1 2024 of 3.4% today is below the estimate of 5.7% at the start
of the quarter (December 31), as estimated earnings for the index of $478.0 billion today are 2.2% below the estimate of
$488.6 billion at the start of the quarter. Seven sectors have recorded a decrease in dollar-level earnings due to downward
revisions to earnings estimates, led by the Energy, Materials, and Industrials sectors. On the other hand, four sectors have
recorded an increase in expected (dollar-level) earnings due upward revisions to earnings estimates, led by the Consumer
Discretionary and Information Technology sectors.
Energy: Chevron Leads Earnings Decrease Since December 31

The Energy sector has recorded the largest percentage decrease in estimated (dollar-level) earnings of all eleven sectors
since the start of the quarter at -13.5% (to $29.9 billion from $34.6 billion). As a result, the estimated (year-over-year)
earnings decline for this sector has increased to -27.1% today from -15.7% on December 31. Despite the decrease in
expected earnings, this sector has witnessed a price increase of 9.9% since December 31. Overall, 20 of the 23 companies
(87%) in the Energy sector have seen a decrease in their mean EPS estimate during this time. Of these 20 companies, 13
have recorded a decrease in their mean EPS estimate of more than 10%, led by Occidental Petroleum (to $0.60 from
$1.21), APA Corporation (to $0.86 from $1.42), and EQT Corporation (to $0.76 from $1.24). However, Chevron (to $2.99
from $3.51), Exxon Mobil (to $2.05 from $2.25), Occidental Petroleum, and ConocoPhillips (to $2.00 from $2.37) have
been the largest contributors to the decrease in expected (dollar-level) earnings for this sector since December 31.
Materials: 86% of Companies Have Seen a Decline in EPS Since December 31

The Materials sector has recorded the second-largest percentage decrease in estimated (dollar-level) earnings of all eleven
sectors since the start of the quarter at -13.0% (to $10.2 billion from $11.7 billion). As a result, the estimated (year-over-
year) earnings decline for this sector has increased to -23.4% today from -12.0% on December 31. Despite the decrease
in expected earnings, this sector has witnessed an increase in price of 6.9% since December 31. Overall, 24 of the 28
companies (86%) in the Materials sector have seen a decrease in their mean EPS estimate during this time. Of these 24
companies, 19 have recorded a decrease in their mean EPS estimate of more than 10%, led by Albemarle (to $0.21 from
$2.31), FMC Corporation (to $0.33 from $1.03), WestRock Company (to $0.25 from $0.55), International Paper (to $0.22
from $0.38), and Newmont (to $0.40 from $0.61).
Industrials: Boeing Leads Earnings Decrease Since December 31

The Industrials sector has recorded the third-largest percentage decrease in estimated (dollar-level) earnings of all eleven
sectors since the start of the quarter at -6.1% (to $36.3 billion from $38.7 billion). As a result, the estimated (year-over-
year) growth rate for this sector has decreased to 0.0% today from 6.6% on December 31. Despite the decrease in
expected earnings, this sector has witnessed an increase in price of 9.2% since December 31. Overall, 59 of the 78
companies (76%) in the Industrials sector have seen a decrease in their mean EPS estimate during this time. Of these 59
companies, 14 have recorded a decrease in their mean EPS estimate of more than 10%, led by Boeing (to -$1.01 from
$0.64), United Airlines Holding (to -$0.54 from -$0.21), and Generac Holdings (to $0.82 from $1.42). Boeing has also been
the largest contributor to the decrease in expected (dollar-level) earnings for this sector since December 31.
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon.com Leads Earnings Increase Since December 31
The Consumer Discretionary sector has recorded the largest percentage increase in estimated (dollar-level) earnings of
all eleven sectors since the start of the quarter at 2.1% (to $36.2 billion from $35.5 billion). As a result, the estimated (year-
over-year) earnings growth rate for this sector has increased to 15.4% today from 13.0% on December 31. This sector has
also witnessed a price increase of 4.2% since December 31. Overall, 20 of the 53 companies (38%) in the Consumer
Discretionary sector have seen an increase in their mean EPS estimate during this time. Of these 20 companies, 9 have
recorded an increase in their mean EPS estimate of more than 10%, led by Norwegian Cruise Line (to $0.09 from -$0.20),
Royal Caribbean Group (to $1.30 from $0.90), and Amazon.com (to $0.83 from $0.68). Amazon.com has also been the
largest contributor to the increase in estimated (dollar-level) earnings for this sector since December 31.
Information Technology: NVIDIA Leads Earnings Increase Since December 31

The Information Technology sector has recorded the second-largest percentage increase in estimated (dollar-level)
earnings of all eleven sectors since the start of the quarter at 1.8% (to $103.7 billion from $101.8 billion). As a result, the
estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for this sector has increased to 20.3% today from 18.1% on December
31. This sector has also witnessed the second-highest price increase of all eleven sectors since December 31 at 13.2%.
Overall, 31 of the 65 companies (48%) in the Information Technology sector have seen an increase in their mean EPS
estimate during this time. Of these 31 companies, 7 have recorded an increase in their mean EPS estimate of more than
10%, led by Micron Technology (to $0.42 from -$0.28), Western Digital (to $0.14 from -$0.60), Seagate Technology (to
$0.26 from $0.16), and Super Micro Computer (to $5.74 from $4.35). However, NVIDIA (to $5.54 from $4.74), Microsoft
(to $2.81 from $2.63), and Micron Technology have been the largest contributors to the increase in expected (dollar-level)
earnings for this sector since December 31.
Index-Level EPS Estimate: 2.6% Decrease Since December 31

The Q1 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median Q1 earnings estimates for all 500 companies in
the index and can be used as a proxy for the earnings of the index) has decreased by 2.6% (to $54.86 from $56.34) since
December 31. In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates. Over the past five years (20 quarters),
earnings expectations have fallen by 3.7% on average during a quarter. Over the past ten years, (40 quarters), earnings
expectations have fallen by 3.4% on average during a quarter. Over the past fifteen years (60 quarters), earnings
expectations have fallen by 3.7% on average during a quarter. Over the past twenty years (60 quarters), earnings
expectations have fallen by 3.9% on average during a quarter.
Thus, the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate for the first quarter to date has been smaller than the 5-year average, the
10-year average, the 15-year average, and the 20-year average.
Guidance: More S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative Guidance for Q1 Than Average
Quarterly Guidance: Negative Guidance for Q1 is Above 5-Year and 10-Year Averages
At this point in time, 111 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for Q1 2024. Of these 111 companies, 78
have issued negative EPS guidance and 33 have issued positive EPS guidance. The number of companies issuing
negative EPS guidance is above the 5-year average (58) and above the 10-year average (62). The percentage of S&P
500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q1 2024 is 70% (78 out of 111), which is also above the 5-year average
of 59% and above the 10-year average of 63%.
Annual Guidance: 54% of S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative Guidance for Current Year
At this point in time, 264 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for the current fiscal year (FY 2024 or FY
2025). Of these 264 companies, 141 have issued negative EPS guidance and 123 have issued positive EPS guidance.
The percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance is 53% (141 out of 264).
EARNINGS INSIGHT
The term “guidance” (or “preannouncement”) is defined as a projection or estimate for EPS provided by a company in
advance of the company reporting actual results. Guidance is classified as negative if the estimate (or mid-point of a range
estimates) provided by a company is lower than the mean EPS estimate the day before the guidance was issued. Guidance
is classified as positive if the estimate (or mid-point of a range of estimates) provided by the company is higher than the
mean EPS estimate the day before the guidance was issued.
Earnings Growth: 3.4%
The estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for Q1 2024 is 3.4%, which is below the 5-year average earnings
growth rate of 9.5% and below the 10-year average earnings growth rate of 8.4%. If 3.3% is the actual growth rate for the
quarter, it will mark the third consecutive quarter that the index has reported year-over-year earnings growth.
Six of the eleven sectors are expected to report year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Utilities, Information
Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. On the other hand, four sectors are expected
to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy and Materials sectors. One sector (Industrials) is expected
to report flat (0.0%) year-over-year earnings.
Utilities: Electric Utilities Industry Is Largest Contributor to Year-Over-Year Growth

The Utilities sector is expected to report the highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of all eleven sectors at 23.8%.
At the industry level, 4 of 5 industries in this sector are predicted to report year-over-year earnings growth. Three of these
five industries are projected to report double-digit growth: Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers (62%),
Electric Utilities (42%), and Gas Utilities (13%). The Multi-Utilities industry (less than -1%) is the only industry expected to
report a year-over-year decline in earnings.
At the industry level, the Electric Utilities industry is predicted to be the largest contributor to earnings growth for the sector.
If this industry were excluded, the estimated earnings growth rate for the Utilities sector would fall to 2.7% from 23.8%.
Information Technology: NVIDA Is Largest Contributor to Year-Over-Year Growth

The Information Technology sector is expected to report the second-highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of all
eleven sectors at 20.3%. At the industry level, 4 of the 6 industries in the sector are predicted to report year-over-year
earnings growth. Two of these four industries are projected to report double-digit growth: Semiconductors & Semiconductor
Equipment (75%) and Software (15%). On the other hand, two industries are projected to report a year-over-year decline
in earnings: Communications Equipment (-10%) and Electronic Equipment, Instruments, & Components (-8%).
At the company level, NVIDIA ($5.54 vs. $1.09) is expected to be the largest contributor to earnings growth for the sector.
If this company were excluded, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the Information Technology sector
would fall to 7.6% from 20.3%.
Communication Services: Meta Platforms Is Largest Contributor to Year-Over-Year Growth

The Communication Services sector is expected to report the third-highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of all
earnings growth. Two of these three industries are projected to report double-digit growth: Interactive Media & Services
(42%) and Wireless Telecommunication Services (20%). On the other hand, two industries are expected to report a year-
over-year decline in earnings: Diversified Telecommunication Services (-8%) and Media (-4%).
At the company level, Meta Platforms ($4.29 vs. $2.20) is expected to be the largest contributor to earnings growth for the
sector. If this company were excluded, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for Communication Services
sector would fall to 9.6% from 19.8%.
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon.com Is Largest Contributor to Year-Over-Year Growth
The Consumer Discretionary sector is expected to report the fourth-highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of all
earnings growth. Three of these five industries are projected to report double-digit growth: Leisure Products (2,843%),
Broadline Retail (143%), and Hotels, Restaurants, & Leisure (39%). On the other hand, four industries are expected to
report a year-over-year decline in earnings. One of these four industries is predicted to report a double-digit decrease:
Automobiles (-24%).
At the company level, Amazon.com ($0.83 vs. $0.31) is expected to be the largest contributor to earnings growth for the
sector. If this company were excluded, the Consumer Discretionary sector would be projected to report a (year-over-year)
decline in earnings of -2.3% instead of earnings growth of 15.4%.
Energy: 3 of 5 Sub-Industries Expected to Report Year-Over-Year Decline of 15% or More

The Energy sector is expected to report the largest (year-over-year) earnings decline of all eleven sectors at -27.1%. At
the sub-industry level, four of the five sub-industries in the sector are predicted to report a (year-over-year) decrease in
earnings: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (-61%), Integrated Oil & Gas (-26%), Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (-16%),
and Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (-3%). On the other hand, the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (17%) sub-industry
is the only sub-industry in the sector projected to report year-over-year earnings growth.
Materials: All 4 Industries Expected to Report Year-Over-Year Decline of 10% or More

The Materials sector is expected to report the second-largest (year-over-year) earnings decline of all eleven sectors at
-23.4%. At the industry level, all four industries in this sector are predicted to report a year-over-year decline in earnings of
10% or more: Containers & Packaging (-27%), Chemicals (-26%), Metals & Mining (-15%), and Construction Materials
(-12%).
Revenue Growth: 3.6%

The estimated (year-over-year) revenue growth rate for Q1 2024 is 3.6%, which is below the 5-year average revenue
growth rate of 6.9% and below the 10-year average revenue growth rate of 5.0%. If 3.6% is the actual revenue growth rate
for the quarter, it will mark the 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.
At the sector level, eight sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Communication
Services and Information Technology sectors. On the other hand, three sectors are predicted to report a year-over-year
decline in revenues, led by the Materials sector.
Communication Services: 4 of 5 Industries Expected to Report Year-Over-Year Growth

The Communication Services sector is expected to report the highest (year-over-year) revenue growth rate of all eleven
sectors at 7.4%. At the industry level, four of the five industries in this sector are predicted to reported (year-over-year)
growth in revenues. However, the Interactive Media & Services (15%) industry is the only industry that is projected to report
double-digit growth.
Information Technology: 3 of 6 Industries Expected to Report Year-Over-Year Growth

The Information Technology sector is expected to report the second-highest (year-over-year) revenue growth rate of all
revenue growth. Two of these three industries are projected to report double-digit growth: Semiconductors &
Semiconductor Equipment (26%) and Software (13%). On the other hand, 3 industries are predicted to report a year-over-
year decline in revenues, led by the Communications Equipment (-10%) and Electronic Equipment, Instruments, &
Components (-8%) industries.
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Materials: 3 of 4 Industries Expected to Report Year-Over-Year Decline
The Materials sector is expected to report the largest (year-over-year) revenue decline of all eleven sectors at -5.2%. At
the industry level, three of the four industries in this sector are predicted to report a year-over-year decline in revenues:
Chemicals (-7%), Containers & Packaging (-6%), and Construction Materials (-3%). On the other hand, the Metals & Mining
(2%) industry is the only industry projected to report year-over-year growth in revenues.
Net Profit Margin: 11.6%
The estimated net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q1 2024 is 11.6%, which is above the previous quarter’s net profit
margin of 11.2% and above the 5-year average of 11.5%, but equal to the year-ago net profit margin of 11.6%.
At the sector level, four sectors are expected to report a year-over-year increase in their net profit margins in Q1 2024
compared to Q1 2023, led by the Utilities (13.2% vs. 10.3%) and Information Technology (25.1% vs. 22.4%) sectors. On
the other hand, seven sectors are expected to report a year-over-year decrease in their net profit margins in Q1 2024
compared to Q1 2023, led by the Energy (9.5% vs. 12.5%) and Materials (9.0% vs. 11.2%) sectors.
Seven sectors are expected to report net profit margins in Q1 2024 that are above their 5-year averages, led by the
Information Technology (25.1% vs. 23.3%) sector. On the other hand, four sectors are expected to report net profit margins
in Q1 2024 that are below their 5-year averages, led by the Health Care (8.2% vs. 10.1%) and Materials (9.0% vs. 10.9%)
sectors.
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Forward Estimates and Valuation

Earnings: S&P 500 Expected to Report Earnings Growth of 11% for CY 2024
For the first quarter, S&P 500 companies are expected to report year-over-year growth in earnings of 3.4% and year-over-
year growth in revenues of 3.6%.
For Q2 2024, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 9.3% and revenue growth of 4.7%.
For CY 2024, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 10.9% and revenue growth of 5.1%.
For CY 2025, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 13.3% and revenue growth of 5.9%.
Valuation: Forward P/E Ratio is 20.9, Above the 10-Year Average (17.7)
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.9. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average of 19.0 and above the
10-year average of 17.7. It is also above the forward 12-month P/E ratio of 19.5 recorded at the end of the fourth quarter
(December 31). Since the end of the fourth quarter (December 31), the price of the index has increased by 9.5%, while the
forward 12-month EPS estimate has increased by 2.6%. At the sector level, the Information Technology (28.8) and
Consumer Discretionary (25.5) sectors have the highest forward 12-month P/E ratios, while the Energy (12.8) sector has
the lowest forward 12-month P/E ratio.
The trailing 12-month P/E ratio is 25.9, which is above the 5-year average of 23.0 and above the 10-year average of 21.2.
Targets & Ratings: Analysts Project 7% Increase in Price Over Next 12 Months
The bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 is 5589.06, which is 7.0% above the closing price of 5224.62. At the sector
level, the Health Care (+10.2%) and Real Estate (+10.0%) sectors are expected to see the largest price increases, as
these two sectors have the largest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price. On the
other hand, the Materials (+1.0%) sector is expected to see the smallest price increase, as this sector has the smallest
upside difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price.
Overall, there are 11,583 ratings on stocks in the S&P 500. Of these 11,583 ratings, 53.9% are Buy ratings, 40.4% are
Hold ratings, and 5.7% are Sell ratings. At the sector level, the Communication Service (63%) and Energy (63%) sectors
have the highest percentages of Buy ratings, while the Consumer Staples (45%) and Materials (46%) sectors have the
lowest percentages of Buy ratings.
Companies Reporting Next Week: 5

During the upcoming week, five S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report results for the first quarter.
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Q4 2023: Scorecard
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Q4 2023: Surprise
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Q4 2023: Surprise
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Q4 2023: Surprise
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Q4 2023: Growth
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Q4 2023: Growth
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Q4 2023: Net Profit Margin
EARNINGS INSIGHT
CY 2023: Growth
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Q1 2024: Guidance
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Q1 2024: EPS Revisions
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Q1 2024: Growth
EARNINGS INSIGHT
FY 2024 / 2025: EPS Guidance
EARNINGS INSIGHT
CY 2024: Growth
EARNINGS INSIGHT
CY 2025: Growth
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Geographic Revenue Exposure
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Bottom-Up EPS Estimates
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Bottom-Up EPS Estimates: Current & Historical
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Forward 12M P/E Ratio: Sector Level
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Forward 12M P/E Ratio: 10-Years
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Trailing 12M P/E Ratio: 10-Years
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Targets & Ratings
EARNINGS INSIGHT
Important Notice
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EARNINGS INSIGHT

John Butters Media Questions/Requests

March 21, 2024

Q423 Earnings & Revenue Scorecard 14

Topic of the Week:

Q1 Earnings Season: By The Numbers

No Change in Estimated Earnings Growth Rate for Q1 This Week

Energy: Chevron Leads Earnings Decrease Since December 31

Materials: 86% of Companies Have Seen a Decline in EPS Since December 31

Industrials: Boeing Leads Earnings Decrease Since December 31

Information Technology: NVIDIA Leads Earnings Increase Since December 31

Index-Level EPS Estimate: 2.6% Decrease Since December 31

Earnings Growth: 3.4%

Utilities: Electric Utilities Industry Is Largest Contributor to Year-Over-Year Growth

Information Technology: NVIDA Is Largest Contributor to Year-Over-Year Growth

Communication Services: Meta Platforms Is Largest Contributor to Year-Over-Year Growth

Energy: 3 of 5 Sub-Industries Expected to Report Year-Over-Year Decline of 15% or More

Materials: All 4 Industries Expected to Report Year-Over-Year Decline of 10% or More

Revenue Growth: 3.6%

Communication Services: 4 of 5 Industries Expected to Report Year-Over-Year Growth

Information Technology: 3 of 6 Industries Expected to Report Year-Over-Year Growth

Net Profit Margin: 11.6%

Forward Estimates and Valuation

Companies Reporting Next Week: 5

Q4 2023: Net Profit Margin

Q1 2024: EPS Revisions

FY 2024 / 2025: EPS Guidance

Geographic Revenue Exposure

Bottom-Up EPS Estimates

Bottom-Up EPS Estimates: Current & Historical

Forward 12M P/E Ratio: Sector Level

Forward 12M P/E Ratio: 10-Years

Trailing 12M P/E Ratio: 10-Years

Targets & Ratings

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