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    Somalia Risk Assessment Brief

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    Tsui Chiang Quek
    The document provides a risk assessment of the situation in Somalia. It outlines the country's history of armed conflict and lack of effective governance since 1991. Key internal actors like the Transitional Federal Government and Islamist groups are described, as well as external actors like Ethiopia, Kenya, and international organizations. The document then discusses factors contributing to political instability, militarization, economic troubles, environmental stress, and poor human development indicators. Population heterogeneity and international linkages are also examined. Three potential scenarios for Somalia over the next 5 years are presented: a best case involving unity and economic growth, a worst case of continued anarchy and humanitarian crisis, and a most likely scenario of a prolonged transitional period with limited stability or institutional development.

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    Somalia Risk Assessment Brief

    Uploaded by

    Tsui Chiang Quek
    160 views17 pages
    The document provides a risk assessment of the situation in Somalia. It outlines the country's history of armed conflict and lack of effective governance since 1991. Key internal actors like the Transitional Federal Government and Islamist groups are described, as well as external actors like Ethiopia, Kenya, and international organizations. The document then discusses factors contributing to political instability, militarization, economic troubles, environmental stress, and poor human development indicators. Population heterogeneity and international linkages are also examined. Three potential scenarios for Somalia over the next 5 years are presented: a best case involving unity and economic growth, a worst case of continued anarchy and humanitarian crisis, and a most likely scenario of a prolonged transitional period with limited stability or institutional development.

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    The document provides a risk assessment of the situation in Somalia. It outlines the country's history of armed conflict and lack of effective governance since 1991. Key internal actors like the Transitional Federal Government and Islamist groups are described, as well as external actors like Ethiopia, Kenya, and international organizations. The document then discusses factors contributing to political instability, militarization, economic troubles, environmental stress, and poor human development indicators. Population heterogeneity and international linkages are also examined. Three potential scenarios for Somalia over the next 5 years are presented: a best case involving unity and economic growth, a worst case of continued anarchy and humanitarian crisis, and a most likely scenario of a prolonged transitional period with limited stability or institutional development.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    160 views17 pages

    Somalia Risk Assessment Brief

    Uploaded by

    Tsui Chiang Quek
    The document provides a risk assessment of the situation in Somalia. It outlines the country's history of armed conflict and lack of effective governance since 1991. Key internal actors like the Transitional Federal Government and Islamist groups are described, as well as external actors like Ethiopia, Kenya, and international organizations. The document then discusses factors contributing to political instability, militarization, economic troubles, environmental stress, and poor human development indicators. Population heterogeneity and international linkages are also examined. Three potential scenarios for Somalia over the next 5 years are presented: a best case involving unity and economic growth, a worst case of continued anarchy and humanitarian crisis, and a most likely scenario of a prolonged transitional period with limited stability or institutional development.

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    Download as pdf or txt
    of 17

    Somalia:ARiskAssessmentBrief

    Presentedby: ShohrehNaji ImanIbrahim ShrishmaDave GilbertCabiles February2009

    Agenda
    Background&Stakeholders HistoryofArmedConflict Governance&Political Instability Militarization EconomicPerformance EnvironmentalStress HumanDevelopment Population&Demographic Heterogeneity InternationalLinkages Scenarios

    BackgroundonSomalia
    Noeffectivegovernmentsince 1991 Declarationofindependence bySomaliland Transitionalfederal government(TFG)and Ethiopiantroopsthrewout Islamistsfromthecapital, Mogadishuin2006but IslamistsseizedBaidoaonJan 26th 09whenEthiopiansleft. Internationaleffortstotackle piracyoftheSomalicoast Presidentialelectionsrunning

    MainActors:Internal
    KeyActors/Stakeholders TransitionalFederal Government(TFG) Somaliland Puntland TheAlliancefortheRe liberationofSomalia Diasporaleadersand Islamistgroups P/N/MEffects Positive Mixed Mixed Mixed Interest/Grievance Preventinsurgency;talkwith opposition Functioninggovernmentbut economicproblems Stoppiracyandcorruption UnitedwithTFGandopposesAl Shabab;ARSleaderaimsfor presidency TryingtocontrolMogadishu;already seizedBaidoa;someaccusedof terroristlinksandimposingSharia law

    Negative

    MainActors:External
    Country/ Organization Ethiopia Kenya Djibouti/Yemen Egypt AfricanUnion TheUnitedNations TheUnitedStates P/N/MEffects Mixed Mixed Positive Undetermined Positive Positive Mixed Interest Stability/troopspullout/warcrimes Transitway,refugees Receiverefugees SomalipiracydevastatedSuezCanalincome AMISOMpreventingtheescalationof violence,refugeeassistance UNaidandresolution/noforces Supporttransitionalgovernmentandsome fightinggroups/counterterrorism operations Fightingpiracy/receiverefugees

    TheEuropeanUnion Positive

    HistoryofArmedConflict
    StabilizingFactors In2008,peacedealsbetweenTFGand someoppositionincludingARS UNauthorizeduseofforceagainstpiracy EthiopiantroopsleftMogadishuJan2,09 DestabilizingFactors 2006Ethiopianinvasionintensifiedfighting withIslamistgroups;completeEthiopian withdrawalJan09createdpowervacuum. TFGholdsonlyMogadishu;itlostBaidoa Since2007,16,000+civilianskilled,30,000+ injured,1million+displaced

    SomaliaFlag SomaliandEthiopianSoldiers

    SomalilandFlag SheikhSharifAhmed(C)leaderof ARS

    GovernanceandPoliticalInstability
    StabilizingFactors ARSleaderAhmedwonpresidencyelectionsandAdde withdrew;constitutionisbeingdrafted PuntlandPresidentfightscorruptionandpiracy Somalilandhasfunctioninggovernment DestabilizingFactors Thereisnocentralgovernment(TFGlackspowerand unity,warcrimes) Noinstitutions,socialservices,securityandjournalists areattacked

    SheikhAdanMadobe,InterimPresident

    Militarization
    StabilizingFactors ModerateIslamists fightextremistalShabab AfricanUnionmilitarypresence DestabilizingFactors Noarmy,military,securityorequipmentsince1991, whichledtogrouprivalry AUforcesinsufficient
    FormerPresidentAbdullahiYusuf

    Somalia'sformerprimeminister NurHusseinHassan,Adde

    EconomicPerformance
    StabilizingFactors Stronginformal economy SteadyGDP DestabilizingFactors Destructionof infrastructure Dependencyon agriculturalproduction Noformaleconomic policy Lackofdata

    EnvironmentalStress
    StabilizingFactors RichCoastline 60%ofcountrycoveredin Savannahwoodlands
    Somalialandscape DestabilizingFactors Constantthreatofdrought Depletionofmarine resources Nosignificantreconstruction since2004tsunami

    Somaliwoodlandsarea

    HumanDevelopment
    StabilizingFactors LowprevalenceofHIV/AIDS NGOsassistinglocaladministrations runprimaryschools DestabilizingFactors Verylittleaccesstosafedrinking water.Waterbornediseasesa majorkiller Highmaternalandinfantmortality Nonationaleducationsystem Since2006morethan2.1million peopleaffectedbydrought
    AhomeinMogadishushelledbyUS

    MotherandchildinSomalia

    PopulationHeterogeneity
    StabilizingFactors Religiouslyhomogenous: SunniMuslims Nearlyethnically homogenous DestabilizingFactors Underlyingproblemsstem fromgenealogicalclan basedconflicts

    DemographicHeterogeneity
    StabilizingFactors Somaliahasamoderatepopulationestimatedtobe9558666 DestabilizingFactors 1.1millioninternallydisplaced,457000refugees,3.2millionneeding humanitarianaid Populationprojectedtomorethandoubleby2035 Largeyouthbulge

    InternationalLinkages
    StabilizingFactors Internationalaidagenciesproviding services Somecountriesandtheirnavies interestedinsafeguardingsealanes againstpirates DestabilizingFactors InitialinterventionsupportedbytheUS ledtomorethanamillionSomali casualties UNSecurityCouncilrefusestosendU.N. peacekeepers Restrictedhumanitarianaccesstocertain areasduetoattacksonstaff

    AfricanUnion

    IntergovernmentalAuthority onDevelopment

    UNAid

    Scenariosforthenext5years

    BestCaseScenario
    Unitygovernmentbasedonpower sharing,Ethiopianswillnotreturn, enhancedAUtroops Somestatebuildingand transformationoflifeconditionsin Puntland,SomalilandandFederal area. Regionaldiplomacy+reconciliation+ improvedmedia Securetraderoutesleadtoeconomic revitalization Stringentenvironmentalregulations reducethedepletionofresources Protectionofaidworkers/improved humanitarianaccess

    WorstCaseScenario
    Intergovernmentalconflictslead toworseanarchy,NoUNforces, insufficientAUforces Noinstitutionsorsecurity,war crimes,corruption,piracy continue Neighbours problemsspillover Islamistclampdownson informaleconomy Increaseddroughtandfamine duetoenvironmental degradation Reducedaid

    MostLikelyScenario
    TransitionalPeriodextended; limitedtalksbetweenTFGand oppositiongroups Continuationofexternal interference,limitedreconciliation Corruptionandpiracycontinue Limitedinstitutionaldevelopment toprovidebasicservicebutnot security Thestronginformaleconomywill continuetosustainthepopulation

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