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True/False
For each of the following questions indicate true or false, then fully explain your answer. You may use examples to illustrate
your answer.
(I) Two events A and B cannot be mutually exclusive (disjoint) and independent at the same time. You may assume
P (A) > 0, P (B) > 0.
TRUE. This is because when they are mutually exclusive, then P (A ∩ B) = 0, but if they were independent we
know P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B), which since each event has a non-zero probability should be non-zero as well.
You could also argue that if A occurs than B does not occur (since they are mutually exclusive), which means they
are dependent.

(II) The average of deviations from the mean (Xi − X̄) is zero.
TRUE.
P This can
P be shown
P by summing the deviations from the mean, or by doing a numerical example:
(Xi − X̄) = Xi − X̄ = nX̄ − nX̄ = 0
Say the values are 1, 2,3. Then, X̄ = 2, and the deviations are: -1, 0, 1, so the sum of the deviations is 0.

(III) Multiplying a random variable by a non-zero constant a will always increase the variance.
FALSE. It depends on the value of a - if |a| < 1, it will decrease the variance. If |a| > 1, it will increase the
variance, and if a = 1 it will not change the variance.

(IV) Calculation of a binomial probability does not require that the trials are independent.
FALSE. It does,Qbecause this is what allows us to us π s . It uses the property of independence that P (A1 ∩ A2 ∩
n
A3 · · · ∩ Ak ) = i=1 P (Ai )

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Full Detail
Work out the following problems. Show your work.
1. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes data on the benefits offered by small companies to their employees.
Supposed 42% offer retirement plans, and 61% offer life insurance. Further, suppose that if they offer life insurance, the
probability they also offer retirement plans is 0.54.
(a) Find the probability that they do offer life insurance and also do not offer a retirement plan.
Let L = Life insurance, R = retirement plan. We are given P (L) = 0.61, P (R) = 0.42, and P (R|L) = 0.54.
P (L ∩ RC ) = P (L) − P (L ∩ R) = P (L) − P (R|L)P (L) = 0.61 − 0.54(0.61) = 0.2806

(b) Find the probability that if they do not offer life insurance, they do offer a retirement plan.
P (R∩LC ) P (R)−P (R∩L) 0.42−0.3294
P (R|LC ) = P (LC )
= 1−P (L) = 1−0.61 = 0.2323077

(c) Find the probability they offered exactly one of the benefits (life insurance or retirement plan), but not both.
P (R ∩ LC ) + P (L ∩ RC ) = 0.0906 + 0.2806

(d) Are these events independent? Justify your answer.

They are not, since P (R|L) = 0.54, but P (R) = 0.42. Since these two values are not equal, they cannot be
independent.

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2. Suppose that in a particular class, your participation grade starts at 100, and decreases by 5 points for each missed
class. Suppose that the average for missed classes is 5, with standard deviation 4. Let G be your participation grade,
and M be the number of missed classes.
(a) Write down the equation relating G and M , and find the mean of G.
G = 100 − 5W , so that µG = 100 − 5µW = 100 − 5(5) = 75.

(b) Find the variance of G, and the standard deviation.

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σG = (−5)2 (42 ) = 400, with standard deviation σG = |5|4 = 20‘

(c) If someones final participation grade was 50, would you say that was unusual? Fully explain your answer.
The average grade is 75, with standard deviation 20, so this would not be unusual since it is very close to one
standard deviation from the mean.

(d) Suppose you are given that this information was measured off a class of size 200. Can you find the minimum points
lost? If you can, find it. If you can’t, explain why.
We cannot find the minimum since we are not given information about the individual students, just the mean
and the standard deviation.
Note even if you had interpreted this as the minimum for the whole class, it is still not possible to calculate.

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3. Suppose that the probability that a college student orders an item online is 0.80 in a week, and we select 5 random
college students. You may assume that ordering an item online for each student in each week is independent, and that
the probability of ordering an item is the same for all students in all weeks. A partial distribution for 5 students follows:

Xi 0 1 2 3 4 5
P (Xi ) 0.0003 0.0064 b 0.2048 a 0.3277

Where Xi = the number of college students who ordered an item online in a week.
(a) Find the values of a and b.
Using
the binomial distribution with π = 0.80, n = 5, we find:
a = 52 0.802 0.203 = 0.0512
b = 54 0.804 0.201 = 0.4096

(b) Find the probability at least one of the five students will order an item online in a week.
We are looking for P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X = 0) = 1 − 0.0003 = 0.9997

(c) Find the interval that represents one standard deviation from the mean (above or below).
p p
µX = nπ = 5(0.80) = 4, σX = nπ(1 − π) = 5(0.80)(0.20) = 0.8944
Thus, the interval is : (3.1056, 4.8944)

(d) The UC Davis undergraduate population is approximately 30000. If these students come from the same group in the
initial description of the problem, find the expected number of students that will order an item online in 4 weeks.
This would be 30000 ∗ 0.80 ∗ 4 = 96000. The mean for one week was (30000)(0.80), and then we multiply by 4
to get to 4 weeks.

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4. (Extra credit Problem – 2 points) Telephone calls enter a college switchboard on the average of two every three minutes.
What is the probability of 5 or more calls arriving in a 9-minute period? A Complete formula will suffice.
X = number of calls arriving in a 9 minutes period, then X ∼ P oisson(λ = 2 × 3 = 6). Hence,

P (X ≥ 5) = 1 − P (X < 5) = 1 − P (X = 0) − P (X = 1) − P (X = 2) − P (X = 3) − P (X = 4)
where
e−λ λx
P (X = x) =
x!

5. (Extra credit Problem – 2 points) A small voting district has 101 female voters and 95 male voters. A random sample of
10 voters is drawn. What is the probability exactly 7 of the voters will be female?A Complete formula will suffice.
We can model this with a hypogeometric distribution with parameters N = 101 + 95 = 196, R = 101, n = 10, R = 101.
Hence,

R N −R


101

95


x × n−x 7 × 3
P (X = x) = N

= 196


n 10

6. (Extra credit Problem – 2 points) Suppose the random variable X follows an exponential distribution with parameter λ.
Define the following probability equation P (X > s + t|X > s) = P (X > s).
Interpret in your own words the equality.
Recall that this is equation is false, it should read P (X > s + t|X > s) = P (X > t) which is known as the memory less
property of the exponential distribution.
Interpretation of the above equation: Given that the event has not happened beyond time s, the probability that
it will take an additional time t is equal to the probability the event will have beyond time s.

Scratch Work