Developing a Theory of Change:

Practical Guidance

OVERVIEW OF THEORY OF CHANGE CONCEPTS AND LANGUAGE

PART I
The Annie E. Casey Foundation | 3
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This guide was authored by Anne Gienapp and Cameron Hostetter of ORS Impact, a consulting firm focused on evaluation, strategy and
planning and theory of change development to advance equitable social change.

ABOUT THE ANNIE E. CASEY FOUNDATION

The Annie E. Casey Foundation is a private philanthropy that creates a brighter future for the nation’s children and youth by developing
solutions to strengthen families, build paths to economic opportunity and transform struggling communities into safer and healthier places
to live, work and grow.

© 2022 The Annie E. Casey Foundation, Baltimore, Maryland

 Contents
2 WHO NEEDS A THEORY OF CHANGE, AND WHY?

3 ABOUT THIS GUIDE

4 KEY CONCEPTS
4 Ways to represent a theory of change
5 Language and terms

6 BENEFITS OF CREATING A THEORY OF CHANGE

7 The benefits of multiple perspectives
8 Using the process to clarify strategy
9 More meaningful measurement
10 Uses for different audiences
10 Theories of change as living tools

11 POTENTIAL LIMITATIONS

12 READY, SET, ACTION!

13 ENDNOTES
Who Needs a Theory of Change,
and Why?

A theory of change is a fundamental component of any large- By reflecting or representing beliefs, assumptions and
scale social change effort. A clear theory of change helps expectations about how change will occur, a theory of change
to strengthen strategies and maximize results by identifying is a good basis for measurement, experimentation and
the work to be undertaken, the expected signals of progress learning. For example, a theory of change can help those who
and the presumed or possible pathways to achieving desired are implementing strategies to test assumptions and build
goals that reflect beliefs, working assumptions or hypotheses. understanding about ways a strategy or its implementation
needs to be adapted. A sound theory of change also helps
clarify the complicated pathways to change for programs or
Developing a theory of change is essentially the strategies aimed at broad, large-scale goals. For programs or
process of making explicit collective assumptions strategies that are complex, where the operating environment
is fluid and unpredictable and may influence a strategy or its
about how change will happen — in other implementation in unknown ways, a theory of change is an
words, making thinking visible. The process of especially important tool. It serves as a compass that remains
pointed to goals, guides responsive or necessary adaptations
articulating a theory of change helps ensure and clarifies opportunities for meaningful measurement.
that everyone involved in a social change effort
understands and is aligned in common strategic
intent. A theory of change product helps to A theory of change can refer to the beliefs and assumptions
document this visible thinking. about how a desired change will happen or a goal will be
realized. The term also can describe a specific product that
expresses those beliefs and assumptions by depicting how
strategies relate to expected outcomes and ultimate goals.

2 | Developing a Theory of Change: Practical Guidance, PART 1

About This Guide

Casey first commissioned ORS Impact (ORS) to develop • explicitly identifying how a theory of change can and
a practical theory of change guide in 2004. Recognizing
1
should advance equity and engage community members
that much has changed in the last 18 years to affect theory in meaningful ways; and
of change development, the Foundation commissioned an • providing detailed explanations about what it takes to
updated guide. This new guide incorporates evolution in develop inclusive theories of change and use them to
thinking about theory of change by: advance powerful, sustained results.

This guide is for organizations, groups, collaboratives and others leading efforts to achieve ambitious goals. We
hope the guide can help funders and implementers of change efforts to be clearer about their objectives, discuss
the roles of decision-making authority and equity considerations in their work and better position themselves for useful
measurement and learning. The guide is organized into three parts:

PART 1
Provides an overview of theory of change models, processes and products, including key
concepts, benefits and limitations.

PART 2
Offers step-by-step guidance — including considerations, exercises and examples for those
seeking to articulate and document a theory of change, along with guidance to support teams
or groups in developing their theory of change through an inclusive and equitable process.

DOCUMENTATION TEMPLATES
Includes fillable templates to record theory of change assumptions, components and audiences.

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Key Concepts

Theory of change can describe both a conceptual model for • What are actions to be undertaken?
how change will happen as well as a product that documents • What will those actions make possible?
such a model. Generally, a theory of change should clearly
• What changes or new conditions are expected to occur
distinguish the actions to be undertaken from the change to
as a result of those actions in the near term and in the
be realized — including along-the-way changes and longer-
longer term?
term goals. A useful theory of change process should answer
the questions: • Who will benefit from these actions or changes?

Ways to represent a theory of change

Theory of change products can take many forms. They often are presented as graphic or visual diagrams, sometimes
called outcome maps.

OUTCOME MAP

STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY

"So that" "So that"

OUTCOME OUTCOME
"So that"
"So that"

OUTCOME OUTCOME OUTCOME

"So that" "So that"

OUTCOME OUTCOME
"So that"

GOAL

4 | Developing a Theory of Change: Practical Guidance, PART 1

There are many possible formats for documenting a group’s core concepts,
assumptions and expectations about change. (See PART 2 of this guide for a
selection of theory of change representations.)

Regardless of its format, a useful theory of change will depict or clarify:

• the broad goals or results being sought;

• strategies and related actions to be implemented, which may include multiple

areas of effort or different intervention points that reinforce or build on each other;

• the outcomes that are expected or assumed to result from actions, as well as
the expected sequence of outcomes (also known as the pathway of change)
that leads to achieving the goal; and

• key beliefs or assumptions about the pathway of change, including:

- how actions will be implemented and by whom;

- the relationships and hypotheses connecting actions, outcomes and

end goals; and

- how much time is required to realize key outcomes or the end goal.

Language and terms

When describing actions and changes expected based on those actions,
different groups may also use different terms. There are no right or wrong terms;
groups can use any terms that feel comfortable to all. However, it is important to
be clear about whether terms are meant to describe actions or changes, and to
use terms consistently.

Similarly, the term theory of change may not resonate with everyone. It is fine
to use other language to describe the model or product that clarifies expected
actions and resulting changes and how they are logically linked. Other terms
that are sometimes used to describe such a conceptual model or product include
theory of action, theory of influence, pathway of change, strategy, blueprint for
change, engine of change, road map and logic model.2

Distinguishing action and change

 erms that typically describe actions: activities, interventions, inputs, outputs
• T
• Terms that typically describe changes: goals, results, outcomes, indicators
• Terms that can describe either actions or changes: objectives, accomplishments, measures, metrics

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Benefits of Creating a Theory of Change

Realizing broad, ambitious social change is a complex Theories of change are powerful tools for guiding large-scale,
undertaking that can take a long time. There is too much at complex efforts seeking ambitious goals. Importantly, theories
stake to be unclear, vague or random in the pursuit of a better of change are not neutral or free of values. As they clarify core
and more equitable society or a healthy planet. Though it can elements of their strategies, assumptions and expectations
be challenging to make visible collective thinking about what about change, teams or groups have opportunities to reflect on
is expected to change — along with when, how and why it and make choices about:
will change — many organizations, teams and partnerships
have benefitted from engaging in this effort. Theory of change • whose views and voices are included — and whose
development can help groups to: are missing;

• who makes key decisions about the conceptual model; and

• experience significant breakthroughs in their thinking;
• how to explicitly identify and mitigate or eliminate historic
• increase their agreement and alignment about how change biases that harm certain groups and prevent results from
will happen; being realized by all.
• better acknowledge and address power differences between
those involved;

• promote equity in their pursuit of goals;

• better understand the roles and expectations of

different contributors;

• better understand where to invest time and resources; and

• better measure their strategies.

6 | Developing a Theory of Change: Practical Guidance, PART 1

The benefits of multiple perspectives
For too long, the people social-change efforts are supposed to benefit have been excluded
from theory of change development. To ensure strategies are meaningful for and accountable
to communities, community members should play a clear role in the development process.

Inclusive theory of change processes create space for multiple perspectives, experiences
and voices and invite greater input into key choices and decisions. Such processes also
provide important opportunities to clarify who has authority in the effort and to build trust and
relationships among different parties, creating the conditions for successful implementation
and realization of goals.

Inclusive processes make it more likely that teams will be able to recognize and sufficiently
address the root causes of the problems being examined, as well as large-scale, systemic factors
that affect their social change efforts. When those most affected by proposed goals, actions and
interim outcomes take part in creating the theory of change, the model is more likely to identify
meaningful components and assumptions.

Those involved in developing a theory of change — ideally before the model is implemented
— should consider whether the people most affected by proposed actions or goals have
opportunities to voice their priorities and contribute to the theory of change. An inclusive
process might include questions like the following to consider barriers to and levers for
advancing equity:

• To what extent are the proposed strategies and outcomes truly meaningful for the people or
communities they are meant to benefit?

• How might implicit working assumptions reinforce traditional or historic ways of thinking or
working that exacerbate inequity, discrimination, bias or harm for certain groups?

• How do the systems or institutions involved in the change effort treat individuals or groups
differently based on their race, home language, zip code or background? Do these systems
diminish or restrict opportunities for some but not others? Have the drivers of historic and
current inequity in the institutions and systems that affect this social change effort been
sufficiently recognized? Do the proposed strategies and change pathways show promise
to address these drivers of inequity?

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 While inclusive and equitable theory of change development takes time, investing in this
effort helps those seeking broad goals to clarify thinking so that they are better positioned
to be successful. (See PART 2 of this guide for tools and examples that support equitable
theory of change development. The Annie E. Casey Foundation’s Race Equity and Inclusion
Action Guide also serves as a useful blueprint for incorporating equity in the context of theory
of change development.3)

Inclusivity: Practices that invite, encourage and support contributions and participation of all
— particularly those who are directly affected and traditionally excluded — and ensure that
all participants have power to influence decisions and actions.

Equity: Conditions that ensure those who have historically been excluded or oppressed have
clear roles and authority in seeking change that affects them. "Advancing equity" can include
changes related to access to resources, quality of services and public or organizational
policies that result in fair treatment, opportunity and outcomes.

Using the process to clarify strategy

As noted, a theory of change is both a conceptual model and the concrete product that
reflects that model. While a theory of change product can serve as a useful tool for
communication and transparency, the process of developing and clearly articulating the
model is equally valuable.

Theory of change development forces all parties to be clearer and more explicit about their
strategy. The process can reveal where thinking is fuzzy — where logic or linkages are weak
— and surface biases and divergent views about how change is expected to happen, especially
among those with different positions or levels of authority. The process also helps to ensure
different views are explored and addressed. In the life cycle of a strategy, the earlier these
points of fuzziness or tension are resolved, the better.

Theory of change development is especially useful for delineating and reaching agreement
about what is sometimes called the “messy middle” — that is, the interim changes that are

8 | Developing a Theory of Change: Practical Guidance, PART 1

expected to occur within a complex, large-scale social change effort on the way to realizing
its goals. Because many such efforts cannot succeed without affecting large systems and
institutions, systemic change can be an integral aspect of the model for change, helping to
create conditions for large-scale change among large groups of people. Since changes in
systems or social structures are frequently qualitative and can be hard to name or identify, the
process of clarifying interim outcomes is often at the heart of theory of change development.
(See PART 2 for examples of interim outcomes that often describe positive change on the way
to end goals.)

Finally, an inclusive theory of change development process promotes equity by helping groups
surface and probe differing beliefs and assumptions. Productive questions may arise, such as:

• How are the proposed interventions truly relevant, respectful and meaningful to people
and communities?

• How do the proposed pathways recognize and make use of communities’ assets, navigate
biases and avoid harms?

The process often sparks important — if sometimes uncomfortable — conversations. Those

conversations can help increase awareness of ways the theory of change upholds and
advances equity, or risks not doing so. The process also can strengthen collective work
by enhancing the level of commitment and buy-in among many stakeholders.

More meaningful measurement

A clear theory of change serves as the basis for meaningful measurement — whether in
assessing progress or in supporting strategy refinement. Clarifying interim outcomes and
expected pathways to an end goal enables groups to expand their understanding of success
beyond a sole focus on end goals, making it easier to design and deploy more focused
measurement that better positions them to document and learn about progress.

Measurement grounded in a theory of change can help funders and implementers understand
their strategies, refine their thinking and make significant adjustments. For example, when
actions, interim outcomes and assumptions are clear, teams can better assess whether
assumptions about change are holding up and whether the outcomes most critical to goal
advancement are evident. Further, working through an inclusive theory of change development
process helps to inform measurement that upholds equity. For example, inviting input from
those most affected by the strategies and goals can help teams prioritize measuring the kinds
of changes that are most meaningful to them.

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 Uses for different audiences
A clear theory of change benefits different audiences that may have different needs or interests related to the
goals being sought.

For PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES at the For THOSE IMPLEMENTING A PROGRAM OR

heart of the work, a theory of change can STRATEGY, a theory of change may function
help ensure transparency, build trust and like a strategic plan; a common reference
provide a mechanism for the community point to keep the work on track; and a tool
to hold initiative leaders accountable for documentation and communication.
for results.

For THOSE SEEKING TO MEASURE AUDIENCE For ORGANIZATIONAL LEADERS,

PROGRESS, a theory of change BOARD MEMBERS OR FUNDERS,
can help frame useful evaluation, a theory of change can function
including evaluation that supports as a communications tool that clearly
learning and informs actions or decisions delineates what is expected to change
related to continuous improvement. and by when, including assumptions about
how the theory of change upholds and
prioritizes equity.

Theories of change as living tools

Theories of change become most valuable when they are regularly used. Instead of being viewed as a static
narrative or visual product, theory of change products can become dynamic, living tools that support ongoing
reflection and learning. (See PART 2 for additional guidance on putting a theory of change to use.)

10 | Developing a Theory of Change: Practical Guidance, PART 1

Potential Limitations
While developing a theory of change holds numerous benefits for a social change effort, it also is helpful
to understand the potential limitations — and ways to address some common issues that may arise.

THEORY OF CHANGE LIMITATIONS AND WAYS TO ADDRESS THEM

LIMITATIONS STRATEGIES TO ADDRESS THEM

Visual or graphic depictions Rather than viewing theory of change depictions as firm, predictive
of theories of change models for how exactly change will happen, collaborators can remain
can make it appear that mindful of assumptions and influencing factors. For example, it can be
expected change pathways difficult to predict relationships between different actors or parts of a
are predictable. system, or to foresee external events or other emerging factors. Ideally,
theory of change products can help collaborators surface important
questions and regularly measure their work to learn about progress.

Graphic depictions often In complex social change efforts, progress can show up in different
show a straight line to ways. One step forward might be followed by two steps back, only to
change when positive be followed later by another step forward. Protection against or even
change may not actually mitigation of a known threat may constitute important progress. Though
follow this path. it is sometimes difficult to portray such nuances graphically, groups can
use the theory of change process to surface expectations about the
different forms that positive outcomes could take.

The theory of change Developing a theory of change is not easy. It takes time, especially if
development process can collaborators are committed to an inclusive process or need to work
lead to fatigue or frustration through fuzzy or divergent thinking. This can feel frustrating, especially
for some. to those who see theory of change development as “thinking, not
doing” or otherwise not valuable or necessary. Frustrations might turn
into pressure to shortcut the process. Quick processes have their
own pitfalls, though — especially when it comes to advancing equity.
Ensuring that all parties are aware of the benefits can help, as can
carefully considering how to structure the process to be as efficient
and productive as possible. (See PART 2 for additional guidance on
structuring a theory of change process).

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Ready, Set, Action!
With a greater understanding of theory of change concepts and language and a greater appreciation
for the benefits of creating a theory of change, you are ready to dig into PART 2 of this guide, where
you’ll find a range of practical tools, exercises and examples to support theory of change development.

Endnotes

1 The Annie E. Casey Foundation. (2004). Theory of change: A practical tool for action, results and learning.
Baltimore, MD: Author. Retrieved from https://www.aecf.org/resources/theory-of-change

2 Logic models are a type of theory of change, most often used when actions involve direct services or a discrete
intervention for a defined group of people that is implemented in a predicted manner. This guide is most focused
on developing theories of change for efforts that require multiple areas of action, often seeking to change the
underlying conditions (such as systems, social structures or policies) that are most likely to support broader
changes for populations and places.

3 The Annie E. Casey Foundation. (2015). Race equity and inclusion action guide: Embracing racial equity: 7 steps
to advance and embed race equity and inclusion within your organization. Baltimore, MD: Author. Retrieved from
https://www.aecf.org/resources/race-equity-and-inclusion-action-guide

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