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Econ 325 - Problem Set 4

Due June 22, 2024, Saturday, 11:59pm on Canvas

Instructions. These questions review the basics of statistical inference. Do your best to make your
arguments rigorous.

1. Suppose that we have i.i.d. discrete random vectors, (X i , Yi ), which are observed. Suppose further
that X i and Yi are Bernoulli random variables with parameters pX = P{X i = 1} ∈ (0, 1) and
pY = P{Yi = 1} ∈ (0, 1) respectively. Suppose that we know pX = 0.5 but we do not know pY .

(i) Suppose that our parameter of interest is θ which is defined as

θ = P{Yi = 1 | X i = 1}.

Provide a consistent estimator of θ . (You need to prove the consistency of your estimator.)

(ii) Suppose that our parameter of interest is β which is defined as

Cov(X i , Yi )
β= .
Var(X i )

Provide a consistent estimator of β. (You need to prove the consistency of your estimator.)

2. Suppose that (X i , Yi ), i = 1, ..., n, are i.i.d. random vectors, where X i represents the i-th worker’s
annual income before COVID 19 and Yi represents the i-th worker’s annual income after COVID
19. For simplicity, we assume that X i and Yi are independent.

For the following questions (i) and (ii-a), we assume that X i is known to follow a normal distribu-
tion with mean µX and variance σ2X , and Yi is known to follow a normal distribution with mean
µY and variance σ2Y .

(i) We are interested in estimating the following quantity:

θ = E[X i − Yi ].

(i-a) Suppose that we know σ2X = 1 and σ2Y = 4. Construct a 95% confidence interval for θ , i.e.
a confidence interval whose coverage probability is precisely equal to 0.95. (For the confidence
interval, you can use the notation z1−α/2 to be the (1 − α/2) quantile of N (0, 1).)

(i-b) Suppose that we do not know σ2X and σ2Y , but we have consistent estimators σ̂2X and σ̂2Y
so that

σ̂2X → P σ2X and σ̂2Y → P σ2Y .

Using these estimators and the sample analogue estimator of θ , construct a confidence interval
whose coverage probability converges to 0.95 as n → ∞.

1
(ii) We are interested testing the following:

Y1 − X 1
• ˜
H0 : E = 0.5 against
4
Y1 − X 1
• ˜
H1 : E > 0.5.
4

(ii-a) Suppose that we know that σ2X = 1, and σ2Y = 4.

(ii-a-a) Construct a test whose Type I Error is equal to 0.05. (Students do not need to explain
how the Type I Error is equal to 0.05.)

(ii-a-b) Consider the test in (ii-a-a). Compute the power of the test under the alternative
hypothesis:

Y1 − X 1
• ˜
E = 1.
4

(You can express the power in terms of the CDF Φ of N (0, 1).)

For the following question (ii-b), suppose that we do not know whether X i and Yi follow a normal
distribution.

(ii-b) Suppose that we know that

Var(Y1 + X 1 ) = 5.

Using this information and the sample analogue estimator of E[(Y1 − X 1 )/4], construct a test
whose rejection probability under the null hypothesis converges to 0.05 as n → ∞. (You need to
show the convergence.)

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