Chapter 6: Population Growth and Economic mortality.

Net international migration is of very limited,

Development: Causes Consequences, and Controversies though growing, importance today (although in the
nineteenth and early twentieth centuries it was an extremely
6.1 The Basic Issue: Population Growth and the Quality important source of population increase in North America,
of Life Australia, and New Zealand and corresponding relative
In 2013, the world’s population reached about 7.2 billion decrease in western Europe). Population increases in
people. In that year, the United Nations Population developing countries therefore depend almost entirely on
Division projected that population would rise to about 8.1 the difference between their crude birth rates (or simply
billion in 2025 and reach about 9.6 billion by the year 2050. birth rates) and death rates.
The overwhelming majority of that population will inhabit
the developing world. What will be the economic and social
implications for development if such projections are Rate of population increase - The growth rate of a
realized? Is this scenario inevitable, or will it depend on the population, calculated as the natural increase after adjusting
success or failure of development efforts? Finally, even for immigration and emigration.
more significant, is rapid population growth per se as
serious a problem as many people believe, or is it a Natural increase - The difference between the birth rate
manifestation of more fundamental problems of and the death rate of a given population.
underdevelopment and the unequal utilization of global Net international migration - The excess of persons
resources between rich and poor nations, as others argue? migrating into a country over those who emigrate from that
country.

6.2 Population Growth: Past, Present, and Future Crude birth rate - The number of children born alive each
year per 1,000 population (often shortened to birth rate).
World Population Growth throughout History
Death rate - The number of deaths each year per 1,000
For most of human existence on earth, humanity’s numbers population.
have been few. When people first started to cultivate food
through agriculture some 12,000 years ago, the estimated Total fertility rate (TFR) - The number of children that
world population was no more than 5 million (see Table would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of
6.1). Two thousand years ago, world population had grown her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with
to nearly 250 million, less than a fifth of the population of the prevailing age-specific fertility rates.
China today. From year 1 on our calendar to the beginning Life expectancy at birth - The number of years a newborn
of the Industrial Revolution around 1750, it tripled to 728 child would live if subjected to the mortality risks
million people, less than three-quarters of the total number prevailing for the population at the time of the child’s birth.
living in India today. During the next 200 years (1750–
1950), an additional 1.7 billion people were added to the Under-5 mortality rate - Deaths among children between
planet’s numbers. But in just four decades thereafter (1950– birth and 5 years of age per 1,000 live births.
1990), the earth’s human population more than doubled
Youth dependency ratio - The proportion of young people
again, bringing the total figure to around 5.3 billion. The
under age 15 to the working population aged 16 to 64 in a
world entered the twenty-first century with over 6 billion
country.
people.
Age Structure and Dependency Burdens - Population is
relatively youthful in the developing world.
Doubling time - Period that a given population or other
Hidden momentum of population growth - The
quantity takes to increase by its present size.
phenomenon whereby population continues to increase
Structure of the World’s Population - The world’s even after a fall in birth rates because the large existing
population is very unevenly distributed by geographic youthful population expands the population’s base of
region, by fertility and mortality levels, and by age potential parents.
structures.
Population pyramid - A graphic depiction of the age
Geographic Region - More than three-quarters of the structure of the population, with age cohorts plotted on the
world’s people live in developing countries; fewer than one vertical axis and either population shares or numbers of
person in four lives in an economically developed nation. males and females in each cohort on the horizontal axis.
Figure 6.2 shows the regional distribution of the world’s
population as it existed in 2010 and as it is projected for
2050. 6.3 The Demographic Transition

Demographic transition - The phasing-out process of

population growth rates from a virtually stagnant growth
Fertility and Mortality Trends The rate of population
stage, characterized by high birth rates and death rates
increase is quantitatively measured as the percentage
through a rapid-growth stage with high birth rates and low
yearly net relative increase (or decrease, in which case it is
death rates to a stable, low-growth stage in which both birth
negative) in population size due to natural increase and
and death rates are low.
net international migration. Natural increase simply
measures the excess of births over deaths or, in more Replacement fertility - The number of births per woman
technical terms, the difference between fertility and that would result in stable population levels.
 The fact is that developed countries, with less than
one-quarter of the world’s population, consume
6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing almost 80% of the world’s resources. In terms of
Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models the depletion of the world’s limited resources,
The Malthusian Population Trap - More than two therefore, the addition of another child in the
centuries ago, the Reverend Thomas Malthus put forward a developed countries is as significant as the birth of
theory of the relationship between population growth and many times as many additional children in the
economic development that is influential today. underdeveloped countries. According to this
argument, developed nations should curtail their
Malthusian population trap - The threshold population excessively high consumption standards instead of
level anticipated by Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) at which asking less developed nations to restrict their
population increase was bound to stop because population growth. The latter’s high fertility is
lifesustaining resources, which increase at an arithmetic really due to their low levels of living, which are in
rate, would be insufficient to support human population, turn largely the result of the overconsumption of
which would increase at a geometric rate. the world’s scarce resources by rich nations. This
combination of rising affluence and extravagant
Family-planning programs - Public programs designed to
consumption habits in rich countries and among
help parents plan and regulate their family size.
rich people in poor countries, and not population
growth, should be the major world concern. We
will analyze issues of the environment and
6.5 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some development in Chapter 10.
Conflicting Perspectives 3. Population Distribution. According to this third
It’s Not a Real Problem argument, it is not the number of people per se that
is causing population problems but their
We can identify three general lines of argument on the part distribution in space. Many regions of the world
of people who assert that population growth is not a cause (e.g., parts of sub-Saharan Africa) and many
for concern: regions within countries (e.g., the northeastern and
Amazon regions of Brazil) are viewed as
 The problem is not population growth but other underpopulated in terms of available or potential
issues. resources. Others simply have too many people
 Population growth is a false issue deliberately concentrated in too small an area (e.g., central Java
created by dominant richcountry agencies and or most urban concentrations). Governments
institutions to keep developing countries in their should therefore strive not to moderate the rate of
dependent condition. population growth but rather to bring about a more
natural spatial distribution of the population in
 For many developing countries and regions,
terms of available land and other productive
population growth is in fact desirable. resources.
Other Issues Many observers from both rich and poor
nations argue that the real problem is not population growth 4. Subordination of Women. Perhaps most
important, as noted previously, women often bear
per se but one or all of the following four issues.
the disproportionate burdens of poverty, poor
1. Underdevelopment. If correct strategies are education, and limited social mobility. In many
pursued and lead to higher levels of living, greater cases, their inferior roles, low status, and restricted
self-esteem, and expanded freedom, population access to birth control are manifested in their high
fertility. According to this argument, population
will take care of itself. Eventually, it will disappear
growth is a natural outcome of women’s lack of
as a problem, as it has in all of the present
economic opportunity. If women’s health,
economically advanced nations. According to this education, and economic well-being are improved
argument, underdevelopment is the real problem, along with their role and status in both the family
and development should be the only goal. With it and the community, this empowerment of women
will come economic progress and social will inevitably lead to smaller families and lower
mechanisms that will more or less automatically population growth.
regulate population growth and distribution. As
long as people in developing countries remain
impoverished, uneducated, and unhealthy and the
It’s a Deliberately Contrived False Issue - The second
social safety net remains weak, the large family
main line of argument denying the significance of
will constitute the only real source of social population growth as a major development problem is
security (i.e., parents will continue to be denied the closely allied to the neocolonial dependence theory of
freedom to choose a small family if they so desire). underdevelopment discussed in Chapter 3. Basically, it is
Some proponents of the underdevelopment argued that the overconcern in the rich nations with the
argument then conclude that birth control programs population growth of poor nations is really an attempt by
will surely fail, as they have in the past, when there the former to hold down the development of the latter in
is no motivation on the part of poor families to order to maintain an international status quo that is
limit their size. favorable to the rich nations’ self-interests. Rich nations are
2. World Resource Depletion and Environmental pressuring poor nations to adopt aggressive population
Destruction. Population can only be an economic control programs, even though they themselves went
problem in relation to the availability and through a period of sizable population increase that
accelerated their own development processes.
utilization of scarce natural and material resources.
It’s a Desirable Phenomenon - A more conventional population growth is a simplification of the standard
economic argument is that of population growth as an Solow-type neoclassical growth equation.
essential ingredient to stimulate economic development.
Larger populations provide the needed consumer demand to Other Empirical Arguments: Seven Negative
generate favorable economies of scale in production, to Consequences of Population Growth According to the
lower production costs, and to provide a sufficient and low- latest empirical research, the potential negative
cost labor supply to achieve higher output levels. consequences of population growth for economic
Population “revisionist” economists of the neoclassical development can be divided into seven categories: its
counterrevolution school argue, for example, that free impact on economic growth, poverty and inequality,
markets will always adjust to any scarcities created by education, health, food, the environment, and international
population pressures.18 Such scarcities will drive up prices migration.
and signal the need for new cost-saving production
technologies. In the end, free markets and human ingenuity 1. Economic Growth. Evidence shows that although
(Julian Simon’s “genius” as the “ultimate resource") will it is not the culprit behind economic stagnation,
solve any and all problems arising from population growth. rapid population growth lowers per capita income
This revisionist viewpoint was clearly in contrast with the growth in most developing countries, especially
traditional “orthodox” argument that rapid population those that are already poor, dependent on
growth had serious economic consequences that, if left agriculture, and experiencing pressures on land and
uncorrected, would slow economic development. natural resources.
2. Poverty and Inequality. Even though aggregate
It Is a Real Problem statistical correlations between measures of
Positions supporting the need to curtail population growth poverty and population growth at the national level
because of the negative economic, social, and are often inconclusive, at the household level the
environmental consequences are typically based on one of evidence is strong and compelling. The negative
the following three arguments. consequences of rapid population growth fall most
heavily on the poor because they are the ones who
The Extremist Argument: Population and Global Crisis are made landless, suffer first from cuts in
The extreme version of the population-as-problem position government health and education programs, and
attempts to attribute almost all of the world’s economic and bear the brunt of environmental damage. Poor
social evils to excessive population growth. Unrestrained women once again bear the greatest burden of
population increase is seen as the major crisis facing government austerity programs, and another
humankind today. It is regarded as the principal cause of vicious circle ensues. To the extent that large
poverty, low levels of living, malnutrition, ill health, families perpetuate poverty, they also exacerbate
environmental degradation, and a wide array of other social inequality.
problems. Value-laden and incendiary terms such as 3. Education. Although the data are sometimes
population bomb and population explosion are tossed ambiguous on this point, it is generally agreed that
around. Indeed, dire predictions of world food catastrophes large family size and low incomes restrict the
and ecological disaster are often attributed almost entirely opportunities of parents to educate all their
to the growth in population numbers.22 Such an extreme children. At the national level, rapid population
position leads some of its advocates to assert that “world” growth causes educational expenditures to be
(i.e., developing country) population stabilization or even spread more thinly, lowering quality for the sake of
decline is the most urgent contemporary task, even if it quantity. This in turn feeds back on economic
requires severe and coercive measures such as compulsory growth because the stock of human capital is
sterilization to control family size in some of the most reduced by rapid population growth.
densely populated developing countries, such as India and 4. Health. High fertility harms the health of mothers
Bangladesh. and children. It increases the health risks of
pregnancy, and closely spaced births have been
The Theoretical Argument: Population-Poverty Cycles shown to reduce birth weight and increase child
and the Need for Family-Planning Programs The mortality rates.
population-poverty cycle theory is the main argument 5. Food. Feeding the world’s population is made
advanced by economists who hold that too rapid population more difficult by rapid population growth—a large
growth yields negative economic consequences and thus fraction of developing country food requirements
should be a real concern for developing countries. are the result of population increases. New
Advocates start from the basic proposition that population technologies of production must be introduced
growth intensifies and exacerbates the economic, social, more rapidly, as the best lands have already been
and psychological problems associated with the condition cultivated. International food relief programs
of underdevelopment. Population growth is believed to become more widespread.
retard the prospects for a better life for the already born by 6. Environment. Rapid population growth
reducing savings rates at the household and national levels. contributes to environmental degradation in the
It also severely draws down limited government revenues form of forest encroachment, deforestation,
simply to provide the most rudimentary economic, health, fuelwood depletion, soil erosion, declining fish and
and social services to the additional people. This, in turn, animal stocks, inadequate and unsafe water, air
further reduces the prospects for any improvement in the pollution, and urban congestion (see Chapter 10).
levels of living of the existing generation and helps transmit 7. International Migration. Many observers
poverty to future generations of low-income families. consider the increase in international migration,
both legal and illegal, to be one of the major
Population-poverty cycle A theory to explain consequences of developing countries’ population
how poverty and high population growth growth. Though many factors spur migration (see
Chapter 7), an excess of job seekers (caused by
A Simple Model A basic model that economists use to rapid population growth) over job opportunities is
demonstrate these adverse consequences of rapid surely one of them. However, unlike the first six
 consequences listed here, some of the economic underdevelopment. Problems such as absolute
and social costs of international migration fall on poverty, gross inequality, widespread
recipient countries, increasingly in the developed unemployment (especially among women), limited
world. It is not surprising, therefore, that this issue female access to education, malnutrition, and poor
has recently taken on political importance in North health facilities must be given high priority. Their
America and Europe (see Chapter 2). amelioration is both a necessary concomitant of
development and a fundamental motivational basis
Goals and Objectives: Toward a Consensus for the expanded freedom of the individual to
In spite of what may appear to be seriously conflicting choose an optimal—and in many cases, smaller—
arguments about the positive and negative consequences of family size.
population growth, a common ground has emerged on 2. To bring about smaller families through
which many people on both sides of the debate can agree. development-induced motivations, family-planning
This position is characterized succinctly by Robert Cassen: programs providing both the education and the
After decades of controversy over the issue of technological means to regulate fertility for people
population policy, there is a new international who wish to regulate it should be established.
consensus among and between industrial and 3. Developed countries should help developing
developing countries that individuals, countries, countries achieve their lowered fertility and
and the world at large would be better off if mortality objectives, not only by providing
population were to grow more slowly. The contraceptives and funding family-planning
consequences of rapid population growth should clinics, but also, even more important, by
be neither exaggerated nor minimized. Some past curtailing their own excessive depletion of
expressions of alarm have been counterproductive, nonrenewable world resources through programs
alienating the very audiences they were intended to designed to cut back on the unnecessary
persuade; at the same time, claims that population consumption of products that intensively use such
growth was not all that important have had the resources; by making genuine commitments to
effect of diminishing a proper concern for the eradicating poverty, illiteracy, disease, and
subject. malnutrition in developing countries as well as
their own; and by recognizing in both their rhetoric
The following three propositions constitute the essential and their international economic and social
components of this intermediate or consensus opinion. dealings that development is the real issue, not
simply population control.
1. Population growth is not the primary cause of low
levels of living, extremeinequalities, or the limited 6.6 Some Policy Approaches
freedom of choice that characterize much of the
developing world. The fundamental causes of these In view of these broad goals and objectives, what kinds of
problems must be sought, rather, in the plight of economic and social policies might developing and
poor families, especially women, and the failure of developed-country governments and international
other aspects of domestic and international assistance agencies consider to bring about long-term
development policy. reductions in the overall rate of world population growth?
2. The problem of population is not simply one of Three areas of policy can have important direct and indirect
numbers but involves the quality of life and influences on the well-being of present and future world
material well-being. Thus, developing country populations:
population size must be viewed in conjunction
with developed-country affluence in relation to the 1. General and specific policies that developing
quantity, distribution, and utilization of world country governments can initiate to influence and
resources, not just in relation to developing perhaps even control their population growth and
countries’ indigenous resources. distribution
3. Rapid population growth does serve to intensify 2. General and specific policies that developed-
problems of underdevelopment and to make country governments can initiate in their own
prospects for development that much more remote. countries to lessen their disproportionate
As noted, the momentum of growth means that, consumption of limited world resources and
barring catastrophe, the population of developing promote a more equitable distribution of the
countries will increase dramatically over the benefits of global economic progress
coming decades, no matter what fertility control 3. General and specific policies that developed-
measures are adopted now. It follows that high country governments and international assistance
population growth rates, though not the principal agencies can initiate to help developing countries
cause of underdevelopment, are nevertheless achieve their population objectives
important contributing factors in specific countries
and regions of the world. Reproductive choice The concept that women should be
able to determine on an equal status with their husbands
In view of these three propositions, we may conclude that and for themselves how many children they want and what
the following three policy goals and objectives might be methods to use to achieve their desired family size.
included in any realistic approach to the issue of population
growth in developing countries.

1. In countries or regions where population size,

distribution, and growth are viewed as an existing
or potential problem, the primary objective of any
strategy to limit further growth must deal not only
with the population variable per se but also with
the underlying social and economic conditions of