2022a - Memo

Business Statistics (STAT1000/A and STAT1001/A) November Memo 2022
Question 1 (4 marks) – MCQ

C
Question 2 (4 marks) – MCQ

C
Question 3 (6 marks)
a) 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 ≥ 2) = 1 − 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 < 2)
= 1 − [𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 1)] 1 mark
8 8
= 1 − �� (0.10 )(0.98 ) + � � (0.11 )(0.97 )� 1 mark
0 1
= 1 − [(1)(1)(0.98 ) + (8)(0.1)(0.97 )]
= 1 − [0.43046721 + 0.38263752] 1 mark
= 1 − 0.81310473
= 0.18689527
≈ 0.1869 1 mark
b) Let X be the number of non-defective screws out of the 8 selected
∴ 𝑋𝑋~𝐵𝐵𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖(8, 0.9)
𝐸𝐸(𝑋𝑋) = 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 1 mark

= (8)(0.9) = 7.2 1 mark
Unadjusted seasonal indices : S4 = 86.50; S1 = -120.75; S2 = 55.00; S3 = -24.75 (4 x 0.5
marks)
Adjusts seasonal indices: S4 = 87.5 ; S1 = -119.75 ; S2 = 56 ; S3 = -23.75 (4 x 0.5 marks)
Forecast for Quarter 1 of 2024: 247.8 + 22 x 6.935 - 119.75 = 280.6265 (1+1 mark)
The previous smoothed value is : 0.2 x 408 + 0.8 x 310.1538 = 329.7230 (0.5 + 0.5 mark)
The forecast for Quarter 1 of 2024: 0.2 x 332 + 0.8 x 329.723 = 330.1784. (0.5 + 0.5 mark)
a. xbar = 2.33 (0.5 mark), t9;0.05 = 1.8331 (0.5 mark) The confidence interval is (1.1693 ,
3.4907). (0.5 mark + 0.5 mark)
b. The interval does not contain 0, therefore at the 10% significance level, the data provide
sufficient evidence in support of the hypothesis that the average length of student’s sleep is
different on the night after an exam. (2 marks)
a)
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛
1
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 = � 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖 − �� 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖 � �� 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖 �
𝑛𝑛
𝑖𝑖=1 𝑖𝑖=1 𝑖𝑖=1
1
= 233074 − (269)(8554)
10
= 2971.4 (1 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚)
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛 2
1
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝐷𝐷 = � 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖2 − �� 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖 �
𝑛𝑛
𝑖𝑖=1 𝑖𝑖=1
1
= 8115 − (269)2
10
= 878.9 (1 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚)
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷
𝑏𝑏 =
𝑆𝑆𝑠𝑠𝐷𝐷
2971.4
=
878.9
= 3.3808 (1 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚)
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛
1 1
𝑎𝑎 = � 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖 − 𝑏𝑏 � � 𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖 �
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛
𝑖𝑖=1 𝑖𝑖=1
1 1
= (8554) − 3.38081693 � (269)�
10 10
= 764.4560 (1 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚)
𝑇𝑇� = 764.4560 + 3.3808𝐷𝐷
b) It is not statistically valid to predict the number of tickets that will be sold when 𝑑𝑑 = 7 since
estimating the number of tickets for values of 𝐷𝐷 that are not between 14 and 42 (the minimum
and maximum values observed values) may result in unreliable predictions. (2 marks)
Notation
A, B, C: Factory A, B, C D: Defective
P(A)=0.35 P(D|A)=0.02 P(A and D)=7/1000=0.0070 (1 mark)
P(B)=0.20 P(D|B)=0.04 P(B and D)=1/125 =0.0080 (1 mark)
P(C)=0.45 P(D|C)=0.01 P(C and D)=9/2000=0.0045 (1 mark)
P(D) =(14+16+9)/2000=39/2000=0.0195 (1 mark)
P(B and D)= 1/125 =0.0080
P(B|D) = 16/39 =0.410 (2 mark)
correct to 3 decimal places
1. Hypothesis: 𝐻𝐻1 : 𝜇𝜇𝑀𝑀 − 𝜇𝜇𝐹𝐹 = 0 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉. 𝐻𝐻0 : 𝜇𝜇𝑀𝑀 − 𝜇𝜇𝐹𝐹 > 0. (1 mark)
2. Critical value: 𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇 > 𝑡𝑡) = 0.05; 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = 48; 𝑡𝑡 = 1.6772. (1 mark)
2
(𝑛𝑛𝑀𝑀 − 1)𝑠𝑠𝑀𝑀 + (𝑛𝑛𝐹𝐹 − 1)𝑠𝑠𝐹𝐹2 24(54.76) + 24(47.61)
s∗2 = = = 51.185
𝑛𝑛𝑀𝑀 + 𝑛𝑛𝐹𝐹 − 2 48
s* ≈ 7.1544 (1 mark)
𝑥𝑥𝑀𝑀 −𝑥𝑥𝐹𝐹 −0 21.7 −18.5

3. Test statistic: 𝑡𝑡 = 1 1
= 2
= 1.5814. (1 mark)
𝑠𝑠∗�𝑛𝑛 +𝑛𝑛 7.1544∗ �25
𝑀𝑀 𝐹𝐹
4. Decision: Test statistic falls outside the rejection region. Fail to reject the null hypothesis. (1
mark)
5. Conclusion: At the 5% l.o.s, there is insufficient evidence to support the claim that women
have less experience in sales management positions than men. (1 mark)
a)
𝑋𝑋 ∼ 𝑁𝑁(2000, 2502 ) − 1 mark
2500 − 2000
𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 > 2500) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > ) − 1 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 = 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > 2) = 1 − 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 ≤ 2) = 1 − 0.9772
250
= 0.0228 − 1 mark
b)
52 500 2 100 − 2000
𝑃𝑃(� 𝑋𝑋 > 52 500) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋̄ > ) − 1 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 = 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋̄ > 2 100) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > ) − 1 mark
25 250
√25
= 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > 2) = 1 − 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 ≤ 2) − 1 mark
𝑃𝑃(� 𝑋𝑋 > 55 000) = 1 − 0.9772 = 0.0228 − 1 mark
a) False: It minimises the squared deviations between the observed and predicted values of the
dependent variable. (2 marks)
b) False: 0.0102 is the smallest level at which the null hypothesis can be rejected. (2 marks)
(a) E=265*14/500=7.42 (1 mark)
(b)
Hypotheses
H0: Shift and quality of work are independent
H1: Shift and quality of work are dependent (1/2 mark)
Rejection Criterion
Reject H0 if X2> 5.991 (1/2 mark)
Test statistic
X2=(110-100.6)2 /100.6 + (121- 127.84)2/127.84 + (4-6.58)2/6.58 + (104-113.4)2/113.4 + (151-
144.16)2/144.16 + (10-7.42)2/7.42 = 4.26 ( 3 marks)
Decision
Since X2 = 4.26 < 5.991, fail to reject H0 (1/2 mark)
Conclusion
At a 5% level of significance, there is insufficient evidence to support the claim that there is an
association between shift and the quality of work. (1/2 mark)

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Business Statistics (STAT1000/A and STAT1001/A) November Memo 2022

Question 1 (4 marks) – MCQ

Question 2 (4 marks) – MCQ

b) Let X be the number of non-defective screws out of the 8 selected

𝐸𝐸(𝑋𝑋) = 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 1 mark

𝑥𝑥𝑀𝑀 −𝑥𝑥𝐹𝐹 −0 21.7 −18.5

𝑃𝑃(� 𝑋𝑋 > 55 000) = 1 − 0.9772 = 0.0228 − 1 mark

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