Erasmus Intensive Programme “Equi Agry”

June 29 – July 11, Foggia

Participatory backcasting:
A tool for involving stakeholders in
long term local development planning

Dr. Maurizio PROSPERI ( maurizio.prosperi@unifg.it )

Dr. Antonio LOPOLITO
Prof. Roberta SISTO

STAR*AgroEnergy Group – University of Foggia

 What is Backcasting?
• Backcasting is a term introduced by Robinson
(1982), denoting a method to analyse future options

– “The major distinguishing characteristic of

backcasting analysis is a concern, not with what
futures are likely to happen, but with how
desirable futures can be attained. It is thus
explicitly normative, involving working backwards
from a particular desirable future end-point to the
present in order to determine the physical
feasibility of that future and what policy measures
would be required to reach that point.”
 What is Backcasting?
It has two main characteristics:

• A normative nature

• And represent a process of “working

backwards from a particular desired
future end-point” (Robinson 2003)
 Normative nature
• Not explorative (What will happen?)

– Where scenarios that sketch plausible futures are

developed. Usually these show the implications of
several external drivers (Börjeson et al. 2006)

• Normative (What we have to do to make happen

something?)
– Backcasting leads to the identification of actions that
are effective in the different socio-environmental
contexts (e.g. those sketched in the exploratory
scenarios)
 How is it articulated?
• It includes at least

1) the development of desirable images of the future (visions)

2) A backwards analysis of how these visions can be realised

– backcasting as the part of working backwards from the

vision to the present
 Other characteristics
• some backcasting studies have a
strongly quantitative nature,
depending strongly on models
• others take a more qualitative (and
often participatory) approach
 Methodological Steps
• Step 1. Identification of the desired end-point

• Step 2. Identification of obstacles, opportunities and

milestones
– 2a. Identification of the obstacles (e.g. lack of financial
resources) and opportunities
– 2b. At the same time, milestones were defined.

• Step 3. Identification of (Policy) actions

• Step 4. Identification of Strategies

(=mix of actions)
 Step 1. Identification of the
desired endpoint
• A desired endpoint is chosen in
plenary session.
– It need to be a major goal upon which all
participants agreed

(however, to save time, we did it

through an online survey)
 Step 2. Identification of obstacles,
opportunities and milestones
• 2a. In small groups, participants study the
contextual exploratory scenario that they had
developed previously in order to identify the
obstacles (e.g. lack of financial resources) and
opportunities (e.g. investment in new
technologies) encountered in relation to
achieving the desired endpoint

(however, to save time, we also did it through the

same online survey)
 Step 2. Identification of Obstacles,
opportunities and milestones
• 2b. At the same time, milestones
(bottlenecks) are defined. The
milestones form the main steps from
the desired endpoint back to the
present.
– They are often linked to one or multiple
obstacles and opportunities, and thus to
the exploratory scenario.
 Step 3. Identification of (Policy)
actions
• The milestones, obstacles and opportunities
provided a framework for the identification of
more concrete actions.
Actions are designed to overcome obstacles
and lead to the achievement of milestones
and the desired endpoint
– The actions are plotted on a timeline to
show the relations between them, and their
relations with milestones, obstacles and
opportunities
Simplified example of the
result of a backcasting

Adapted from Van

Vliet et al. 2013
Step 4. Identification of Strategies
• Strategies are main sequences of actions
and milestones leading to the desired
endpoint.
• They summarise the backcasting timeline
• They are identified roughly by the
participants
• After the workshop, they are fine-tuned by
the workshop organisers
 The main outputs

1. The timelines with actions, milestones,

obstacles, opportunities and the desired
endpoint showing how the desired endpoint
can be reached;
2. A summarising overview in the form of
strategies, for each scenario;
3. A list of robust actions, independent of the
scenarios
A possible output
When is backcasting applicable?

• Typically backcasting is applied on

long-term complex issues, involving
many aspects of society as well as
technological innovations and change

• The focus of interest is on a perceived

societal problem of great
importance (e.g. impacts of transports
on the environment)
 When is backcasting applicable?
the following characteristics favour backcasting:

• the problem to be studied is complex, affecting many

sectors and levels of society

• there is a need for major change, i.e. when marginal

changes within the prevailing order will not be sufficient

• the dominant trends are part of the problem.

These trends are often the cornerstones of forecasts

• the problem to a great extent is a matter of externalities,

which the market cannot treat satisfactorily;

• the time horizon is long enough to allow considerable

scope for deliberate choice
 An Experiment
The development
of a Bio-Based Economy (BBE) in
European rural areas
• Identify the desired endpoint in 2035

• Identify the main obstacles

• Identify the main opportunities

• Identify the appropriate actions to achieve the

desired end point, while taking into account
obstacles and opportunities
 Identify the desired endpoint in
2035
1) Which of these three options would
you come true in the year 2035? Please
select one:
1. Zero organic waste
2. Creation and development of a market for
products from biorefinery
3. Make profitable the market for the
products from biorefinery
 Identify the main obstacles
2) Which are the main obstacles?
Select the most important 5
Limited access to external
information and knowledge, Inconsistent policy framework at
Absence of a clear market;
including the lack of technological local, national and European level;
support;
Uncertainty on return on
Lack of collaboration with research bureaucratic obstacles and
investment or too long payback
institutes and universities. administrative lacks;
period for eco-innovation;
Cultural gaps on the role of
sustainable development and the Limited capacity of SMEs in R&D
Lack of external funding;
opportunities that its pursuit may activities;
determine;
Significant cuts to public and
private spending with consequent
Insufficient access to existing limited availability lack of technical and technological
subsidies and tax esemption; support to SMEs;
of financial resources for BBE
investments;
Lack of common standards in order
to measure eco-innovation of a
Lack of human resources; relocation of businesses;
product and a process (ie how
green a process or a product);
Lack of clear and effective
Technical and technological
communication on the eco-
constraints (e.g. obsolete technical barriers to education;
innovation and its environmental
infrastructures);
and economic benefits;
Market dominated by consolidated
Others obstacles (pleas desctibe)
companies;
 Identify the main obstacles
3) Which are the main Opportunities?
Select the most important 5?
Forward Thinking of the Enforcement of environmental Positive effects in terms of
institutions law revitalization of local economies

Positive effects of the bio-economy

Forward Thinking of entrepreneurs Awareness for sustainable issues in terms of job creation and
employment and social services

Strong social acceptability by

Presence of dedicated crops Positive Demographic trends
stakeholders and society

Promising market for products from Involvement of local, national and

Open-innovation networks
biorefinery supra-national stakeholders

Importance of the strategic role of

Bureaucratic public administration Availability of suitable support
energy security, with emphasis on
support systems
agro-energy.

Recognition of the bioeconomy as a

Presence of EU funding key strategy for the development of reduction of pollution
the European rural areas

Others oppportunities (pleas

Presence of successful cases
desctibe)
Identify the desired endpoint in 2035

4) Identify the appropriate action

to achieve the desired end point

Based on the aggregation of the responce to

the three previous questions, it is achieved
in a participative manner by the group
…
It’s your turn now …!!!
 Is backcasting a method?
• Robinson (1982): it is a method describing how a
study should proceed in a number of well-defined
consecutive steps, each of which in turn divided
into substeps

• Dreborg (1996): it should be seen as a general

approach than as a method

– It is an approach which may promote

creativity, by shifting the focus from present
conditions to a situation sufficiently far off in
the future to permit radical change
 Is backcasting a method?
• Robinson (1982): it is a method describing how a
study should proceed in a number of well-defined
consecutive steps, each of which in turn divided
into substeps

• Dreborg (1996): it should be seen as a general

approach than as a method

– It is an approach which may promote

creativity, by shifting the focus from present
conditions to a situation sufficiently far off in
the future to permit radical change
 Summary: core features of backcasting

• The outcome: alternative images of the future,

thoroughly analysed as to their feasibility and
consequences.

– Often they highlight polarities (eg solar vs.

nuclear), and limit to what is technologically
and socially possible to attain (is economic
growth compatible with a 40% reduction of
transports over the next 30 years?)

– Also, strategic choices for society are identified.

Of specific interest are decisions that may
close or open the door to some of the
identified future solutions
 Summary: core features of
backcasting
• For whom: addressed to many actors
such as political parties, Governmental
authorities, municipalities, organizations,
private enterprises and an informed
general public
– The studies are meant to provide
input to a policy-forming process,
with many actors.
 Summary: core features of
backcasting
• For what: The images of the future are meant to
serve as well worked out examples of what, e.g.,
sustainability may be like, with the aim of widening
perceptions of possible solutions among various actors.
Another purpose is to highlight consequences of
strategic choices in society (the opening or closing of
future options).

– The result is not meant to form a basis for a

single, big decision. It provide alternative (coherent )
images of the future and their (credible) consequences.
Then the results may work as a scientific material
in a process, facilitating for actors with different
values and goals to form an opinion and a view on
the future.
 Summary: core features of
backcasting
• How: A backcasting study needs novel ideas about
solutions to the problem at stake. Getting ideas is a
non-logical process.

– There is no point in prescribing any formal methods

(Methods such as expert panels etc may work, but
you may also get a brilliant idea without using any
specific method) It is the result that counts.

– However, a sound knowledge of the relevant

aspects of society and technology is a necessary
foundation. Since the studies cover such broad
fields of knowledge, a multidisciplinary team is
required.
 Reading List
• Robinson J (1982) Energy backcasting—a proposed method of
policy analysis. Energ Policy 10:337–344

• Robinson J (2003) Future subjunctive: backcasting as social

learning. Futures 35:839–856

• Börjeson L, Höjer M, Dreborg K-H, Ekvall T, Finnveden G (2006)

Scenario types and techniques: towards a

• user’s guide. Futures 38:723–739

• Van Vliet M and Kok K (2013) Combining backcasting and

exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of
uncertain futures. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global
Change

• Dreborg KH (1996) Essence of backcasting. Futures 28:813–828

 Erasmus Intensive Programme “Equi Agry”
June 29 – July 11, Foggia
Participative backcasting:
A tool for involving stakeholders in
long term local development planning

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Dr. Maurizio PROSPERI ( maurizio.prosperi@unifg.it )

Dr. Antonio LOPOLITO
Prof. Roberta SISTO
STAR*AgroEnergy Group – University of Foggia