CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1: Background to the Study

One of the elements of democracy is the freedom of expression. To democratize is to ensure

unhindered two-way communication between the government and the governed. The essence is

to ensure the responsiveness of government to the yearnings of the people and for the people to

put their views across to the government without fear or hindrance and in an atmosphere devoid

of interference. This is facilitated by the social media. Despite the underdeveloped nature of Sub-

Saharan Africa when compared to the West, the region has witnessed a high rate of

communication gadgets and internet penetration. In Nigeria, mobile phone subscription rose

from over 866, 000 in 2001 to over 121 million as at October 2013. During the same period,

internet users rose from 200, 000 to 57 million (NCC cited in Noel, 2014). These technologies

are now major social connectors and there is hope that they may be transforming political life by

enhancing democratic consolidation and increasing the quality of democracy. The advent of

internet and technology has exposed majority of the global population to different interactive

platforms on which different kinds of information is exchanged which might significantly have

effect on human behaviour, decision and judgment (CES, 2012).

The social media has become a powerful medium which may affect voting behavior because of

its potential to provide direct and cheap access to the production and consumption of current

information at any part of the world without editorial filtering (Sunstein, 2001). A typical social

media services could be content sharing, web communities, or an Internet forum. On the social

media, the users are not passive like in the case of Television, Radio, and Newspaper; rather they
are active in the formation and exchange of information. Today’s social media has made the

world a “global village”, with the quick transfer of information overriding the challenges of time

and distance (Friedman, 2007). Information can be distributed at high speed, low cost, and broad

scope and as a result, there is egalitarian access to the production and the consumption of news

(Prat and Strömberg, 2011).

Information that emanated from a member of the forum might become topical and even spread

beyond where it was first discussed. Typical examples of social media include Facebook,

Twitter, YouTube, Google+, MySpace, Skype, Instagram, Flipagram, and Hi5. All these sites

and applications have interactive options that facilitate broadcasting and rebroadcasting of

information. Aside from these websites, these are also application that people are even more

accessible to on smartphones and androids. The applications include: BBM on which there are

BBM channels, where news and other information are created, broadcasted, and even modified.

There is also Whatsapp application that facilitates the formulation and dissemination of

information. Others are Nimbuzz and 2go. They are not just for news, but are also for gossips

and rumours. In so many cases on social media, what started out as rumours, gossip, or even

speculation are reproduced and rebroadcasted as real, even though it was fake ab-initio. This

particular problem emanates from the user-to-user interaction found on social media Which is

distinguished from the traditional media. In social media, the gate keeping role of traditional

media is eliminated. The use of emotional appeals in political campaigns to increase support for

a candidate or decrease support for a challenger is a widely recognized practice and a common

element of any campaign strategy (Brader, 2006). Campaigns often seek to instill positive

emotions such as zeal and hopefulness about their candidate to improve turnout and political

activism while seeking to raise fear and anxiety about the opposition. Zeal tends to reinforce
preference for the candidate and party, while fear and anxiety interrupt voter behavioral patterns

and leads individual voters to look for new sources of information on divergent political issues

(Marcus, Neuman, & Mackuen, 2000).

1.2: Statement of the Problem

The influence of the social media in our modern day society is immeasurable. In fact, it has

become the most accessible source of information in the present day society. This information on

the social media is unregulated and sometimes, they tend to be biased, presumptuous, and might

even be tentative. Aside from these, the population of users is uncontrolled as many have the

ability to create blogs and channels where information can be circulated. Unfortunately, the

majority of social media users who have access to this information are unaware of these

maladies. The social media pass information freely because they are unregulated. The

information can come in form of broadcast on application like whatsapp, facebook, BBM, blogs,

or even text messages. With the unregulated nature of the social media, it is certain that many of

the information are not subject to scrutiny which makes such information vulnerable to

misrepresentation and misinterpretation. Consequently, this has great bearing on the political life

of citizens especially in areas of voters' behavior. The 2015 presidential election in Nigeria

witnessed a high rate use of the social media especially facebook and twitter in campaigns of

different kinds. Therefore, the effect of these media on the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria

is what this study set out to examine laying much emphasis on its effect on voters' behavior.

Hence, the following research questions are posed:

(i) What is the effect of social media on voters' behavior in the 2015 presidential election in

Nigeria?
(ii) What are the major factors that influenced voters' behavior in the 2015 presidential election

in Nigeria?

(iii) What are the factors hindering social media from fully actualizing its technological

potentials of enhancing political socialization and otherwise of democracy?

1.3: Clarification of terms

1.3.1: Social Media

Social media are computer-mediated technologies that facilitate the creation and sharing of

information, ideas, career interests and other forms of expression via virtual communities and

networks (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media). Typical examples of social media

include Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Google+, MySpace, Skype, Instagram, Flipagram, and

Hi5. All these sites and applications have interactive options that facilitate broadcasting and

rebroadcasting of information. However, for the purpose of this study, social media is

operationalized to mean Facebook, YouTube and Twitter due to their large number of users

when compared to other social media platforms.

1.3.2: Voters' Behavior

Generally, voters' behavior refers to attitudes of voters towards electoral candidates. It focuses on

the determinants of why people vote as they do and how they arrive at the decisions they make.

Understanding voters' behavior can explain how and why decisions were made either by public

decision-makers, which has been a central concern for political scientists, or by the electorate

(Goldman, 1966).

1.3.3: Election
An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an

individual to hold public office (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election). Put differently, it is

the process by which citizens or group of people select those who occupy public offices. This is

the case in Nigeria in which presidential elections are conducted every four years. Elections have

been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy has operated since the

17th century.

1.4: Literature Review

Research knowledge is cumulative. That is to say that every study is built on previous studies in

the subject area. The aim is to acquire and update the knowledge of the researcher on the existing

empirical evidence conducted so far in the area under study. This study is not an exception.

Hence, below is a brief review of related literature in the area under study.

Ojekwe (2016) specifically examined political advertisement campaigns of the All Progressive

Congress (APC) gubernatorial candidate in Lagos state, Akinwunmi Ambode. A field survey of

eligible voters in Lagos State was carried out to further ascertain the efficacy of political

advertisement campaigns on the electorates. From the field survey, results were collated,

analyzed and summarized using simple frequency tables. Findings from the study showed that

political advertisement campaigns have a minimal effect on electorate's voting behaviour but still

plays a role in the electoral process. This study recommended that political candidates and

parties should concentrate on other election campaign strategies and that further studies should

be carried out to better understand other existing factors that actually influence voting behaviour.

Edegoh. and Anunike. (2016) conducted a study titled Voters’ Assessment of Social Media Use

for 2015 Electioneering Campaigns by the two Leading Political Parties. The major objectives
of the study were to determine the extent to which the two leading political parties in Nigeria

(and their candidates) made use of the social media for their electioneering campaign activities

and to ascertain the specific activities they purveyed through the social media. The study was

anchored on the Agenda-setting theory of the mass media, adopted quantitative research

approach, surveyed 105 respondents purposively drawn from Awka, Onitsha and Nnewi (the

three main urban towns in Anambra State), and used the questionnaire as instrument of data

collection. The percentage method was also used to analyse data. Findings of the study show that

the two leading political parties in Nigeria did not use the social media much in the

electioneering campaigns of the 2015 elections, that the candidates of the two leading political

parties utilised the social media more than candidates of other political parties in the election,

and that the activities they disseminated in the social media bordered mainly on announcement of

party flag bearers, accusations and counter accusations of electoral fraud being strategised by the

other political party or INEC’s connivance with one party or the other to rig the election. The

paper concluded that the two leading political parties scored below average in the use of the

social media in the 2015 electioneering campaigns, though, their candidates performed better

than candidates of the other political parties. The researchers recommended more proactive use

of the social media platforms by the leading political parties and all registered parties in Nigeria.

Madueke, Ogbonnaya, & Anumadu, (2017) examined the experiment of social media use for

political participation in Nigeria. The study was anchored on the Uses and Gratifications Theory.

Findings of the study show that the use of social media has positively affected the participation

of individual in the day to day political process. The study recommended that as a developing

country, Nigeria must embrace this platform in order to ensure greater participation of her

populace in government activities.

A study by Noel (2014) titled the effect of social media on voting behavior which seek to

ascertain if Twitter messages sent to known supporters asking for vote can positively affect that

person’s likelihood to cast a ballot and, if so, would that vote be for the candidate whose

campaign tweeted the message. Media ecology, as proposed by Marshall McLuhan and

developed by Neil Postman, provides the primary theoretical framework for the study. The

survey reveals that Twitter messages asking supporters to vote have “little” to “no effect” on

getting them to the polls, but for those that it did prompt to vote, respondents said they would

vote for the candidate they supported because of the Twitter message. The study recommended

that further research is necessary to determine if Twitter, as one form of social media, is unique

in yielding these results, and to determine why it does not have greater influence in encouraging

voting.

Also, Okolo, Ugonna, Nebo, & Obikeze (2017) on the topic "effects of the social media in the

marketing of political candidates in Nigeria" examined the effect of social media in projecting

the image of political candidate in Nigeria. The research adopted the descriptive survey design.

The population of the study comprises of the masses (i.e. the electorate) and the members of

political parties (political candidates) in Nigeria who uses social media. Primary data and

secondary sources of information were employed. Data were tested using simple percentages,

Pearson Moment Correlation Coefficient and Regression analyses at 0.05 level of significance.

Findings from the study showed that: There is a significant positive relationship between usage

of Facebook as an awareness social media tool and projection of a political candidates’ image in

Nigeria(r = 0.764; F = 418.677; p < 0.05). Blogging as a credible social media tool to a large

extent influences image of a political candidate in Nigeria (r = 0.728; p<0.05). It was concluded

that social media serve as credible tools and are capable of influencing the image of political
candidates in Nigeria. The study recommended that political candidates should carefully plan

and execute communication strategies using various social media tools, so as to fully enjoy the

inherent benefits of the social media tools (i.e credibility and awareness).

Michael and Olanrewaju (2014) conducted a study on The Impact of Social Media on Citizens’

Mobilization and Participation in Nigeria’s 2011 General Elections. One of the findings of the

study is that the social media had positive influence to some extent, on the outcome of the 2011

general elections in Nigeria, considering its usage by various electoral stakeholders. The study

recommended that Social Media should be encouraged in political mobilization and participation

of citizens considering its unique advantages to democratic consolidation in Nigeria.

Furthermore, Udensi (2015) in a study titled Social Media and Political Effects: A Case Study of

the 2015 Nigeria's Presidential Election examined the influence and role played by social media

in the 2015 presidential election. the objective was to ascertain the extent of involvement of

Social media to the success and transparency of the 2015 Nigeria's presidential election. Findings

of this study had it that social media greatly influenced the fairness and transparency of the 2015

presidential election in Nigeria which was hailed internationally.

Apparently, the reviewed related literature above and elsewhere that couldn't be stated here due

to lack of space shows that social media as a new media has played great role in Nigeria and

other political systems in diverse ways. However, little has been done in area of voters behavior.

Areas where voters behavior were adequately studied, such studies were done outside Nigeria.

Besides, such studies were carried out years back before the 2015 presidential election in

Nigeria. Also, the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria witnessed a different dimension in terms

of massive use of social media compared to what was obtainable in recent years. Furthermore,
none of these studies took cognizance of the ability of technological determinism theory in

explaining the effect that social media could exert on voters behavior. These, in the view of the

researcher form the gap in the literature.

1.5: Objectives of the study

Every study is geared towards achieving certain objectives. Therefore, the following among

others are the objectives of this study:

(i). To examine the impact or effect of social media on voters' behavior in the 2015 presidential

election in Nigeria;

(ii). To examine major factors that influenced voters' behavior in the 2015 presidential election in

Nigeria; and

(iii). To investigate those factors hindering the social media from fully actualizing its

technological potentials of enhancing political socialization and otherwise of democracy.

1.6: Significance of the study

The essence of every research is to acquire knowledge that could proffer solution to individual

and societal problems. This study is not so different from other academic studies aimed at

proffering such solution to both individual and society at large. Hence, the objectives above once

achieved, will be relevant in the following ways:

(i). This study will educate scholars, undergraduates and the general public on the subject matter;

(ii). The result of this study will be useful for policy formulation by the government as it defines

the role of the social media in the electioneering process;

(iii). This study will also serve as an eye-opener to both electoral candidates and electorate as to

the efficacy and deficiency of the social media in electioneering process of Nigeria;

(iv). Finally among others, this study will be a contribution to the body of literature in the area of

social media and voters' behavior in Nigeria, thereby, constituting an empirical literature for

future research in the subject area.

1.7: Theoretical Framework

It is imperative to point out here that virtually all research are guided by a theory. Theory and

research are interlocked. Thus, while theory describes the logical parts of the world, research

offers means for seeing whether those relationships actually exist in the world (Babbie, 1979

cited in Ibaba, 2010:23). Hence, the theoretical basis of this study is anchored on the

technological determinism theory.

Technological Determinism Theory is a theory that assumes that a society's technology

determines the development of its social structure and cultural values

(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_determinism). The term is believed to have

originated from Thorstein Veblen (1857-1929), an American sociologist and economist (ibid).

Technology in the position of this theory is the driving force of culture in a society. This theory

aims to provide a causative link between technology and a society's nature. It tries to explain as

to whom or what could have a controlling force or influence on human affairs. The theory

questions the degree to which human thought or action is influenced by technological factors.

Social media is a form of technological determinism which has the capacity to impact society in

various ways including aspects of political culture. This is where voters' behavior becomes the

focal point of this study.

Hence, the relevance and applicability of the technological determinism theory to this study is

seen in the role social media had played in shaping voters' behavior with special reference to the

2015 presidential election in Nigeria. This is as a result of its capability of explaining the

phenomenon under study.

1.8: Hypothesis

One hypothesis which is stated in null and alternate form would be tested in this study. Hence,

we have:

H01: There is no significant relationship between the use of social media in the 2015 presidential

election in Nigeria and influence on voters' behavior in the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria

HA1: There is a significant relationship between the use of social media in the 2015 presidential

election in Nigeria and influence on voters' behavior in the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria
References

Brader, T. (2006). Campaigning for hearts and minds: how emotional appeals in political ads
work, University of Chicago Press, pp. 2–4

Centre for European Studies (CES) (2012). Suomen Toivo Think Tank. Social media - the new
power of Political influence. Version 1.0 Ari-matti auvinen pp. 4-16

Edegoh, L.O.N. and Anunike, O.W. (2016). Assessment of Social Media for the Use of Political
Participations by Youths in Anambra State, Nigeria in D. Wilson (ed) Mass Media and
The Electoral Process in Nigeria (p.127).

Friedman, T. (2007). The World Is Flat 3.0: A brief History of the Twenty-first Century. Picador

Goldman, S. (1966). voting behavior on the United States courts of appeals, 1961–1964. The
American Political Science Review 60 (2), 374–383.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_determinism

Ibaba, S.I. (2010). Foundation of Political Science. Second Edition. Port Harcourt: Amethyst and
Colleagues Publishers.

Madueke, O., Ogbonnaya, C. and Anumadu, A. (2017). The Role of Social Media in Enhancing
Political Participation in Nigeria. International Digital Organization for Scientific
Research. Journal of Arts and Management 2 (1), 44-54.
Marcus, G., Neuman, R. and MacKuen, M. (2000). Affective Intelligence and Political
Judgment, University of Chicago Press.

Michael, B. A. and Olanrewaju, O.P.A. (2014). The Impact of Social Media on Citizens’
Mobilization and Participation in Nigeria’s 2011 General Elections.

Noel, A.B. (2014). Effects of Social Media on Individual Voting. Being an unpublished thesis
submitted to the school of professional studies, Gonzaga University.

Ojekwe, I.G. (2016). Political advert campaigns and voting behaviour: Akinwunmi Ambode’s
2015 Election Campaign in Lagos State. Journal of African Elections 15 (1), 13-27.

Okolo, V.O., Ugonna, I. A., Nebo, G.N. and Obikeze, C. (2017). Effects of the social media in
the marketing of political candidates in Nigeria. British Journal of Marketing Studies 5
(6), 15-32.

Prat, A. and Strömberg, D. (2011). The Political Economy of Mass Media. Stockholm University
Working Paper

Sunstein, C. R. (2001). Republic.com. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Voting Behaviour accessed online at www.wikipedia.com retrieved on 10th April, 2015.

 CHAPTER TWO

METHODS OF STUDY

2.1 Introduction

This chapter intends to give a clear description of the method and procedures involved in

carrying out this study and ways by which information on the subject matter will be collected

and organized for proper analysis. The methodology employed in this study is explained under

the following headings: research design; sources of data; methods of data collection; population

of the study; sample of study and sampling procedure; tools for data collection; and methods of

data presentation and methods of data analysis.

2.2 Research Design

Research design refers to the overall strategy that you choose to integrate the different

components of the study in a coherent and logical way, thereby, ensuring that you effectively

address the research problem; it constitutes the blueprint for the collection, measurement, and

analysis of data (https://libguides.usc.edu/writingguide/researchdesigns). Accordingly, Sanubi

(2011) cited in Okolo (2016) maintained that a research design is simply the description of steps

which the researcher intends to follow in order to obtain the research findings. Hence, rhis study

shall adopt the descriptive survey design. The descriptive survey design deals with the systematic

collection of facts from a target audience or population. This design is adopted by the researcher

due to its potential in answering the research questions posed in chapter one.
2.3 Sources of Data

Generally, there are two sources of data collection which include the primary and the secondary

sources. The researcher will make use of both the primary and the secondary sources. The

primary data will be obtained through questionnaires while the secondary data will be obtained

through already existing information found in textbooks, related journals and the internet.

2.4 Methods of Data Collection

Data collection is the process of gathering and measuring information on targeted variables in an

established systematic fashion, which then enables one to answer relevant questions and evaluate

outcomes (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_ collection). Data collection is a component of

research in all fields. While methods vary by discipline, the emphasis on ensuring accurate and

honest collection remains the same. The goal for all data collection is to capture quality evidence

that allows analysis to lead to the formulation of convincing and credible answers to the

questions that have been posed (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_collection). The method of

data collection to be employed in this study is the Self-Report method. Also, data will be

collected from secondary sources which include: books, journals etc. Hence, such data will be

meticulously analyzed.

2.5 Population of the Study

A population is a group of individuals, objects, or items from which samples are taken for

measurement. In other words, the population is the totality of the subject matter. Thus, the

population of this study consists of the entire social media users who are at same time,
electorates all over Nigeria. It is important to know that it is very difficult to study the population

due to some reasons arising from time factor, economic factor etc. Thus, the need for sample.

2.6 Sample of Study and Sampling Procedure

Sampling is the process in which a representative part of a population for the purpose of

determining parameters or characteristics of the whole population is selected. This is called a

sample. It is easier to contact a smaller part of the population for data collection than contacting

the population because it can be done within a limited time, limited efforts and with minimum

cost. Sampling deals with selecting a sample. The sampling method to be used in this study is the

convenience sampling with a sample size of two hundred (200) social media users who are at

same time electorates in Nigeria.

2.7 Tools for Data Collection

The tool for data collection that will be used for this study is the questionnaire. Questionnaire is a

set of questions that has been prepared to ask a number of questions and collect answers from

respondents relating to the subject matter under study. A number of questions usually in printed

or electronic form are to be answered by the individuals. The forms often have blank spaces in

which the answers can be written. Sets of such forms are distributed to individuals and the

answers are retrieved. The questionnaire will be titled: “Social Media and its effect on voters'

behavior in the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria”. The questionnaire will be divided into

two sections covering the research questions raised in chapter one of this study. The various

sections are as follows:

Section A: Socio-Demographic Background of the respondents

Section B: Social Media and its effect on voters' behavior in the 2015 presidential election in

Nigeria

2.8 Methods of Data Analysis

Data analysis involves the process of treating data with statistical tools, so that a mass of data can

be summarized, simplified and interpretable (Olaitan et al., 2006:61 cited in Ikenga, 2015). Data

analysis has multiple facets and approaches, encompassing diverse techniques under a variety of

names, in different business, sciences, and social sciences' domains

(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_analysis).

The retrieved data shall be tabulated and analyzed using simple descriptive statistics of mean and

standard deviation and then t-test as a parametric technique in testing the hypothesis stated in

chapter one.

For instance, Mean given as:

Where = mean

∑ = summation

F = frequency

N = Number

Also,

SA =5
 A =4

U =3

D =2

SD =1

Where SA = Strongly Agree

A = Agree

U = Undecided

D = Disagree

SD = Strongly Disagree

Hence, Mean = 15/5 = 3.00

Therefore, any Mean score below 3.00 will be regarded as disagree while any Mean score of

3.00 and above is regarded as agree; thus the criterion mean is 3.00 and that is what will be used

as decision rule.

Standard deviation is given as:

SD =

Where = Likert rating scale

= Mean
 N = Total number of the respondents

T-test for two nominal distributions is given as:

Where

= Grand Mean of Respondents on Research Question Three

= Grand Mean of Respondents on Research Question One

N1 = Total number of the Respondents on Research Question Three

N2 = Total number of the Respondents on Research Question One

= Pooled/Grand Standard deviation of the Respondents on Research Question

Three

= Pooled/Grand Standard deviation of the Respondents on Research Question

One

The Demographic data will be analyzed using simple percentage.

References

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_analysis
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_collection
https://libguides.usc.edu/writingguide/researchdesigns
Ikenga, F.A. (2015). Political Parties and Democratization in Nigeria: A study of the fourth
republic. Being an Unpublished Ph.D thesis submitted to the department of political
science, Delta State University Abraka

Okolo, P.O. (2016). Oil Multinationals and Communal Conflict in the Niger Delta: A study of
Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) in Bayelsa State. Being an Unpublished
thesis submitted to the Postgraduate School, department of political science, Delta State
University Abraka.