Prediction of Remaining Service Life

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DOI: 10.36108/laujoces/2202.90.

0160
LAUTECH Journal of Civil and Environmental Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review
1*
Omoare A. 2Arum C. and 3Olanitori L. M.
1, 2, 3
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria
Corresponding Author e-mail: eromoare@gmail.com Tel: 08032245218
Submitted on: 22/07/2022 Accepted on: 30/09/2022

Abstract
Service life models are a part of critical anchors to achieving sustainable development goals, offering
sustainable solutions for infrastructural advancement. In spite of their indisputable usefulness and
acceptability in the scientific circle, their real-world deployment is still grossly inadequate. The
overall objective of this review is to assess the existing service life prediction models with highlights of
their highs and lows. The models identified include deterministic, stochastic and engineering. Areas
requiring more intensive research identified include the development of service life database,
simplification of the complicated mathematical formats of service life models into simpler more
practically-manageable formats, comparative study of expert opinions and computer integrated
knowledge, as well as the place of structural elements in service life determination compared to non-
structural elements. The study finally notes the areas that will give the required shape and speed of
development to service life modeling of reinforced concrete buildings which include the provision of
service life database, practical application of service life model for user-guidance, the superiority of
service life data from non-destructive testing results to commercial data from manufacturers,
placement of experts' opinions at par with computer integrated knowledge system, and using complete
building for service life determination rather than building elements. This review will serve as
information base on various service life models which should assist early researchers in the subject
area and speed up the application from the rudimentary to more advanced stages within the
foreseeable future.

Keywords: Service Life Model, Database, Durability, Building Component, Sustainable Development

Introduction
Infrastructure is a major determinant of economic growth in any society and the commonest
infrastructure is the building. Buildings are important because they constitute an indicator of the
standard of living of the occupants. This makes the maintenance of reinforced concrete buildings an
increasingly important topic around the world (Possan, Dal-Molin and Andrade, 2018). It is generally
agreed that infrastructure and technology have to be improved in order to achieve sustainable
development (Ng'ang'a, 2012). It is the consciousness of and the desire for sustainable development
that has steered the interest of many researchers to service life prediction of reinforced concrete
buildings. In an attempt to conserve and protect the scarce natural resources while maintaining
environmental balance that has been established around a building structure for decades, the option of
demolishing and constructing a new building seems unappealing to building owners. On the other
hand, refurbishment cost of building can be as high as half of new construction. In the light of this
situation, the most acceptable option is to determine the service life of the building, analyze
investment options and adopt the most economical option.
Therefore, it has become worthwhile and imperative to develop models for predicting the service life
of buildings, which can aid in decision making for repairs, strengthening or demolition (Liang, Kao,
Hung, and Oung, 2009). Numerous service life prediction models have been developed and the
development is on-going. Some are based on numerical method while others are on computational,
empirical, or reliability approach, among others. Though the development of these models is a difficult
task, many researchers have nevertheless developed service life prediction models. However, their
application remains a challenging task. This paper attempts to carry out a wide-scale review of the

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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review

available related research works on service life prediction models, highlighting the high and low
points of each of the models.

Materials and Methods


This study made use of the relevant materials available in the literature that are under this topic of
discussion or closely related to it. The present state of service life modeling was critically looked into
and the application at the onset was juxtaposed with the state- of- the- art. This enabled some
conclusions to be drawn and recommendations that could help practicing professionals and researchers
were also suggested.

History of Service Life


There is abundant literature evidence of the traceability of service life concepts of buildings and
structures to when ancient builders discovered that some materials and designs stay longer in service
than others (Davey, 1961) as reported in ACI 365 (2000). Early builders used the word durability until
recently when the concept of service life came up as the quantitative version of durability. Therefore,
throughout history, service life prediction of structures, equipment and other components has been
majorly qualitative and empirical (ACI 365, 2000).
According to Lacasse (2008), service life and durability research have been part of construction
lexicon over the past 50 years. It was R Legget, the past Chair of ASTM standards development
committee on the performance of buildings (ASTM E06), who in the 1950’s first identified durability
or more suitably, service life, as a research field (see Legget and Hutcheon, 1958, in Grodin, 1993).
Since these early efforts, quite a good number of durability and service life research projects have
been initiated with outcomes that are motivating to other researchers. Furthermore, Hendriks, Nunen
and Erkelens (2004) noted that service life prediction originated in the 1950’s when the first set of
experiments with cyclical loads were performed. The cyclic load tests were continually increased until
1990's when service life now became a field of expertise with the development of guides and
standards.
A considerable amount of work has been carried out on concrete durability over the past 50 years
through laboratory and field studies. However, the results of these studies are either scattered in the
journal literature or spread thinly across some popular textbooks. Furthermore, the rather mostly
theoretical approaches to deterioration mechanism with predictive characteristic coupled with
complicated mathematical models impose limitation on their widespread practical application
(Papadaski and Efstathiou, 2006). Prior to the 1990s, research into the expected service life of building
components and materials had been grossly limited but government and professional organisations
particularly in the UK and US have thereafter carried out considerable research activities into the lives
of buildings and their components (Abott, 2007).
Durability and service life prediction of building materials and projects constitute a multi-disciplinary
research field that has gained considerable attention over the last decade. Service life prediction has
now become a recognized scientific activity with fairly uniform methodologies available to guide the
research and development work. This is mostly due to research efforts carried out in the late 1960’s at
the National Bureau of Standards which led to the development of a systematic approach for the
assessment of service life and durability of building materials and construction (Frohnsdorff and
Master 1990; Frohnsdorff, Sjostrom, & Soronis, 1999).
Currently, the literature is replete with research works dealing with degradation mechanism in which
attempts have been made to study the mechanism experimentally or via simulation using fundamental
or empirical models. The numerous experimental results obtained and the rather complicated
mathematical models limit their wide scale use by concrete engineers, who want to predict the service
life of concrete.
LAUTECH Journal of Civil and Environmental Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
Papadakis, Vayenas and Fardis (1991) and Papadakis, Fardis, and Vayenas (1992) were the first to
develop a reaction engineering model of the process leading to concrete carbonation resulting in a
nonlinear system of differential equations in space and time which lend themselves only to numerical
solution. Thereafter, many research works have been executed in the area of service life and durability
(Lacasse, 2008; Teply, 2002; and Gaspar and de Brito, 2005).
In spite of the huge research effort on the service life and the maintenance of buildings and
components, the application of the methodologies developed so far, nevertheless, remains limited,
mainly owing to the complex nature of degradation phenomena but also due to dearth of dependable
tools for their modelling. Furthermore, data pertaining to the durability and service life of buildings
and materials are usually absent in most architectural and construction projects. Therefore,
notwithstanding the importance of methodologies for the prediction of service life and their
acceptability in the scientific community, their application remains at a rudimentary level (Silva, de
Brito, and Gaspar, 2016).

Definition of Service Life


It is common to confuse the concept of service life with that of durability, a fact that often results in
the misuse of the terms. Service life relates to a period of time while durability refers to the ability of a
building and its components to perform adequately during their life cycle (Silva, de Brito, and Gaspar,
2016). According to Papadakis and Efstathiou (2005), durability is a structure’s ability to withstand
environmental attacks, without its performance dropping below a minimum acceptable limit. Although
the two concepts are different, they are closely related and their understanding is imperative for a clear
grasp of building life (see figure 1). Both are important concepts in the construction process, whether
at design or in-use phase, and they may directly or indirectly cause the reduction of maintenance cost,
increase user-comfort and enhance the sustainability of whichever solution is adopted (Moreno, 2012).

Figure 1: Schema of the concept of ''Service Life'' of a structure


Source: Alexander, (2018)
Different definitions have been given by different researchers, depending on their focus and
perspectives. For example, some researchers have defined service life with corrosion of reinforcement
in focus while others consider the general performance of concrete structure. Some also consider
reliability in their definition. A few of the various definitions of service life as given by different
authors are presented in Table 1.

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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review

Table 1: Selected Definitions of Service Life


S/N Author Service Life Definition
1. ASTM (1982) Service life is the period of time after installation in which the
buildings or their parts meet or exceed the minimum performance
requirement having been subjected to periodic maintenance.
2. Abu-tair et al. End of service life is reached when either failure occurs or major
(2002) repair is necessary to keep the structure in service.
3. Martin-Perez and Service life is the time until damage accumulation reaches an
Lounis (2003) unacceptable or limit state.
4. Rostam (2005) Service life is the number of years during which the structure shall
perform satisfactorily without unforeseen high costs for maintenance.
5. Life-365 (2010) Service life of a structure is defined as the period of time after
installation until such time when costly repair becomes necessary.
6. Vorechovska, Service life is the period from installation to depassivation of
Teply and reinforcement due to carbonation or chlorination occurs.
Chroma (2010);
Chai, Li and Ba
(2011)
7. Zhang Service life is the life before critical chloride concentration causes
and Ba (2011) reinforcement corrosion.
8. ISO 15686 Service life is the period of time after installation in which the
(2011) buildings or their parts meet or exceed the minimum performance
requirement.
9. Crevello Technical service life is the period for which a structure is capable of
and Noyce (2015) performing according to requirements without major repair, before
unacceptable state is reached.
Functional service life or Functional working life is the time in service
until the structure no longer fulfils the functional requirement.
Economic service life is the time in service until the replacement of
the structure (or part of it) is more economical than keeping it.

The table presents different definitions of service life that are of general interest. Obviously, the
definitions are quite similar and it is worthy of note that some of these definitions (S/Nos. 1, 5 and 8)
are found in standard documents while other authors more or less derived their definitions from them.
However, because of its tone and its practical language, the definition given by ASTM (1982) S/No. 1
is hereby recommended.

Service Life and Sustainable Development


Building vision throughout the world has been modified by the very topical concept of sustainable
development. It is defined as development that meets the needs of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987).
The last few decades have witnessed a growing interest in green building and green materials, and a
general tendency towards a more sustainable built environment. It is generally acknowledged that
current ways of using our resources is unsustainable and it has telling negative effects on the
sustainability of the building industry. The most critical of these effects are premature deterioration of
buildings and their components, cost for routine maintenance, repairs, before time replacement, likely
health effects and service disruption. The repairs have increased embodied energy which can outweigh
that of the originally constructed building over the expected life time (Talon, Chevaliar, and Hans
2006).
Building owners are faced with the dilemma of either to rehabilitate and continue to use the existing
building or to demolish and rebuild. Meanwhile, the option of demolishing and rebuilding also has a
LAUTECH Journal of Civil and Environmental Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
number of challenges such as decanting, access to construction site, waste recycling, and unanticipated
costs, among others. More so, it has been noted that the cost of rehabilitating in most cases is
approximately half the cost of new construction. Therefore, extending the serviceable life of building
(with minimum investments) is finding the best option among asset owners (Urs, Manthesh, Jayaram,
and Hegde, 2015). Therefore, to minimize waste and the use of resources, buildings need to stay
healthy for a longer period of time which translates to sustainable development (Mc Kay, 2007).
In order to conserve the natural environment, scarce and non-renewable resources, the achievement of
quality environment and life, the concept of sustainable infrastructural development cannot be brushed
aside; likewise, service life of buildings (Diyoke, 2001; Ibikunle, 2014).

Service Life and Accelerated Aging Test


Tests for durability are sparse while tests for evaluation of service life are even sparser. This is so
because testing for durability is a complex task and service life testing is even more complicated.
These complications can be traced to the fact that degradation mechanism often depends on numerous
factors capable of affecting the process in a synergistic way; moreover, the governing failure mode
may vary for different environments. Furthermore, the slow pace of degradation makes accelerated
tests difficult and the large number of degradation agents make comparison with actual in-use
degradation environment complicated (Martin, Saunders, Floyd, and Wineburg 1994; Marteinsson,
2005; Silvestro, Andrade, and Dal-Molin, 2019).
According to Fagerlung (1985), in order for design to effectively utilise the concept of service life, the
traditional accelerated test methods must be replaced by non-accelerated tests. The problems presented
by accelerated test are as follows:
(i) It is difficult to convert the exposure time in the test to the time in the real environment.
(ii) The acceleration changes the destruction mechanism, leading to a change in the real behaviour.
(iii)The acceleration can be so large that destruction becomes disproportionate.
(iv) The effect of mutual interaction which is often present when two or more destructive actions
are present cannot be revealed when only one destruction mechanism is investigated.
Andrade and Alonso (1993) and Molina, Alonso and Andrade (1993) reported that the use of
accelerated testing by some researchers for corrosion caused by chlorides is not suitable because of the
localized nature of the corrosion process. Furthermore, the methods employed for the estimation of
service life often demands deep understanding of the degradation mechanisms causing loss of
performance of the investigated building elements over time. Such information can often be obtained
through accelerated aging laboratory tests, in a controlled environment. However, this method has
been criticized by many researchers because it is not possible to consider the full complexity of
environmental context. Field data collection techniques are usually seen as a preferable method to
assess the degradation level of structure or its component in real life service conditions (Gaspar and de
Brito, 2005).
Nonetheless, some researchers have opinions that are slightly different; for example Hovde (2004)
believes that accelerated aging tests in a scientifically controlled environment and field data survey
techniques to assess the degradation level of a building element in service conditions are often pointed
out as two complementary approaches to estimate the service life of a given element. Marcotte (2001),
on the other hand, believes that mathematical models, reliability and stochastic concepts are often used
to overcome the limitations of accelerated ageing test.
From these opinions, it can be underlined that accelerated aging test is considerably useful in-service
life and durability work. While this test cannot be taken as total representation of real condition of
structure or its elements, a better test method has not been developed. Therefore, its roles cannot be
overemphasized and its use will not cease until a new improved method is developed.

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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review

Service Life and Reinforcement Corrosion


All over the world today, the real and major durability issue of reinforced concrete structure is the
reinforcement corrosion (Xuandong, Yang, Feng, & Ping, 2022). It is seen as the main cause for
structural deterioration and the leading durability issue (Papadakis, and Efstathiou, 2006; Selvaraj,
Amirthavarshini, and Deepika, 2016 and Xinzheng, 2018)). Although Michel, Geiker, Olesen, and
Stang (2012), considered corrosion of embedded reinforcement as the main deterioration process,
Crevello and Noyce (2015), believes that other damage mechanisms exist, yet concluded that
corrosion of reinforcement is the primary and most noticeable cause of untimely damage to reinforced
concrete structure which impacts greatly its service life (Ranjith, Rao, and Manjunath, 2015).
According to Poursaee (2016), corrosion of steel is here to stay and therefore corrosion science and
engineering community must attempt to achieve slow rate of corrosion to the level that will make a
structure or its components to remain serviceable for its specified service life. For determination of
service life of reinforced concrete structure, corrosion models are indispensable as they describe the
electro-chemical processes within the concrete that surround it as well as the surface of the steel
(Michel, Geiker, Olesen, and Stang, 2012). In the determination of service life and proactive approach
to repair of reinforced concrete structure, understanding corrosion degradation and corrosion rate
measurement techniques are fundamental (Crevello and Noyce, 2015). The development of service
life prediction model for reinforced concrete structures that are located within environments
contaminated with either chloride or carbonate is a complex process. The reason is that qualitative
understanding of the environment, movements within the concrete, the corrosion phenomenon,
cracking and physical deterioration process must be considered (Taffase, and Sistonen, 2013 and
Qiongming, Xuckuan and Zhonglin, 2020).
Deteriorating reactions including carbonation and chloride penetration that contribute to limit the
service life of reinforced concrete structures are most times investigated as single actions. Meanwhile,
if service life of reinforced concrete structure is predicted by selecting one dominant deteriorating
process, the results will not be conservative. It therefore became evident recently that synergistic
effects have to be considered if different deteriorating mechanisms act concurrently or in succession.
Therefore, a model for service life prediction must have a scope that is enlarged to cover the
synergetic effect of combined mechanical and environmental loads. However, researchers have not yet
established the most severe load combination and study it in particular (Withman, Zhao, Zhang, and
Jiang, 2010).
The state of being wholesome in reinforced concrete is affected by corrosion in two different ways
with the loss of cross section of the reinforcement being the more obvious of the two ways. The
second way by which the integrity of reinforced concrete is affected is the delamination between the
remaining reinforcement and the concrete member as well as the concrete cover. This is brought about
by corrosion product that occupies more volume than the reinforcing steel had initially occupied
(Cheung, and Kyle, 1996 and Pellizzer, Leonel and Nogueira, 2018).
Furthermore, it is reasonable to assume that in reinforced concrete structures, major repair will be
necessary once generalized cracking of concrete cover occurs due to corrosion of the reinforcement,
an indication that the service life of the structure has ended. The time required for the concrete cover
to crack is equal to the period of time necessary for the layer of rust to build up around the bar until it
splits the cover (Papadakis, and Efsthathiou, 2005). There is convergence of opinion in the literature
that once chloride concentration exceeds a certain value, corrosion initiation is generally deemed to
have occurred. The minimum value of this chloride concentration that causes corrosion initiation is
one of the most important parameters needed for many service life predictions of reinforced concrete
structure. Nonetheless, it has been reported by recent researchers that concentration of chloride is not
the only major factor; other major influencing factors are the potential of the reinforcing steel, and
presence of void at the reinforcement steel / concrete interface (Taffase, and Sistonen, 2013). Also,
service life of concrete structure is usually modelled as a two-stage process of initiation and
propagation (Tuuti, 1982), while deterioration is conceptualized into two distinct phases to pattern
after the two-stage Tuuti model as shown in Figure 2.
LAUTECH Journal of Civil and Environmental Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022

Figure 2: Two-Stage Tuuti model (source: Alexander, 2018)


The 2-stage Tuuti model is represented mathematically by Eqn (1):

where: ti is initiation time and tp is the propagation time.


However, it has been observed that service life of a structure has three major phases:
(i) time after construction and before corrosion initiation;
(ii) time between corrosion initiation and crack formation; and
(iii) time period after crack formation before failure of structure (Ying and
Vrouwenvelder, 2007; Verma, Bhadauria, and Akhtar, 2014; Poursaee, 2016).
In service life modelling, climatic conditions vary the corrosion rate of the embedded steel in concrete.
In particular, the relative humidity and temperature are the main determining factors for the rate of
corrosion. For this reason, a reliable prediction cannot be obtained with a single corrosion rate of any
particular climatic condition. More so, the properties of concrete on specific degradation process vary
with the corrosion rate. It is recommended in the literature that a period of time should be selected
when measuring the rate of corrosion which stands for the annual corrosion rate value for estimating
service life.
Although these approaches provide reasonable values, they are encumbered by many uncertainties.
For example, full understanding of the threshold free chloride level that will initiate steel corrosion has
not been reached. Effect of different loadings on structure, chloride diffusion constant and
concentration, surface chloride, are some of the other uncertainties. Furthermore, the concentration of
surface chloride on concrete varies with time. Also, the rate of diffusion of chloride may not be
uniform over a surface because concrete is a heterogeneous material. The period of initiation is
considered to be longer than the period of propagation and therefore these periods can be modelled as
random variables that can be defined by their statistical distributions since structures and environments
are not the same (Selvaraj, Amirthavarshini and Deepika, 2016).
Service life prediction tends to increase in difficulty with the number of materials in a building
component. The difficulties increase even more with systems consisting of many components. Even at
that, just as the service life of a building material or component can be predicted if enough information
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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review

is available, also with enough information, it should be possible to predict the life of a complete
building from the predicted service lives of the building elements and construction materials in that
same building (Frohnsdorff, and Martins, 1996). Likewise, after the determination of concrete mix
design and structural qualities, together with the environmental conditions of the concrete location,
service life can be predicted with fundamental mathematical models that simulate the deterioration
mechanism and rate of chloride penetration and carbonation. Other chemical attacks are some of the
basic phenomena upon which the prediction is based (Papadakis and Efsthathiou, 2005).

Service Life Technical Committees and Standards


The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) introduced the technique of a systematic
approach to assess the service life and durability of building materials and construction (Fohnsdorff,
and Master, 1990). The NIST was the first to bring understanding as to how a systematic method
could be established to evaluate durability using information that was processed into a knowledge
base. This formed the basis for the initial development of a standard method by which the durability of
material could be readily and systematically evaluated (ASTM, 1982).
According to Lacasse (2008), performance concept in building construction technique came to focus
by the efforts of building researchers through these activities. At this time, efforts to advance
durability and service life were highlighted in a symposium co-sponsored by the International Union
of Testing and Research Laboratories for Materials and Structures (RILEM), the American Society for
Testing and Materials (ASTM), and the International Council for Building Research Studies and
Documentation (CIB). Likewise, researchers in Canada, UK and Japan are not left behind; they had
already developed the key elements for a method of selecting building materials and testing them.
These efforts formed the basis adopted in their guide to service life and similar guides like BSI and
CSA. For example, reasonable efforts had been recorded in this regard as early as 1953 in Japan
(CSA, 1995; AIJ, 1993; and BSI, 2003).
According to Frohnsdorff, Sjostrom and Soronis (1999), the establishment of ISO TC 59/SC3/WG9,
design life of building in 1993 was the beginning of standardization activities. One of the first to adopt
the service life prediction methodology instituted by CIB AND RILEM was a European initiative
called Eurocare. They discussed the methodology and its standardization with the commission of the
European community and the European Standard's Organization (CEN).
Moreso, some national standards and codes of practice were the basic documents obtainable to assist
the early standardization work apart from RILEM technical recommendation. These documents
include; the British guide to durability of buildings and building elements, products and components
(1992), the Japanese principal guide for service life planning of building (1993), and the Canadian
Guideline on durability in building (1994) (Frohnsdorff, Sjostrom, and Soronis, 1999).
It is worthy to note however that Frohnsdorff, Sjostrom, & Soronis (1999) suggested that a joint
CIB/RILEM research cooperation on service life prediction should be established and this started in
1982.
Also, the standardization activities in ISOTC59/SC14 are strongly supported by the work of the joint
CIB W80/RILEM 175-SLM committee on service life prediction, while the primary user of the
committee products was SC14. As at today, there exist consensus guides and standards for durability
and service life development by ACI being the world leading organization in area of concrete-based
knowledge development (ACI, 2020).
Method/Approaches to Prediction of Service Life of Reinforced Concrete
Generally speaking, there are different methods through which the service life of concrete can be
predicted. According to Clifton (1990), the available approaches are as follows:
(i) Experience based estimate: This type of service life prediction is not reliable as the results is
dependent on the experience of whoever is handling the estimation.
LAUTECH Journal of Civil and Environmental Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
(ii) Performance of similar materials-based estimates: Deductions from performance of similar
materials was adjudged ambiguous and that comparing the durability of old and new
concrete is not direct.
(iii) Accelerated testing estimates: One of the most important conditions to be met before
accelerated testing can be satisfactory for service life prediction is that the in-service
deterioration and the degradation mechanism that generated it should be similar to that of the
accelerated test and this is often a difficult task to achieve.
(iv) Reliability and stochastic estimates: The concepts of reliability and stochastic have been
applied to service life prediction model development and the models developed have their
background on the theories that support the fact that service life cannot be accurately
predicted.
(v) Mathematical and simulation-based estimates: modelling based on chemistry and physics of
degradation and computer simulation are very useful on service life prediction.
In the last decades, various decision-making tools including methods of service life prediction have
been developed to aid the process of construction maintenance. Nevertheless, different short-comings
such as inadequate grasp of mechanisms degradation and their effect on construction elements,
absence of dependable methods for quantification of the durability and service life of buildings, and
complexity of degradation phenomena, have been observed (Van, Tristan, Stephanie and Anne, 2018).
Furthermore, predicting the service life of buildings and their components is a time-consuming and
difficult assignment. A number of factors are associated with it which includes material quality, design
and execution level, the indoor and outdoor environmental conditions as well as the use and
maintenance condition (Zhang and Ba, 2011; Hovde, 2004; Lounis, Lacasse, Siemes, and Moser,
1998).
In an attempt to define the service life prediction methods, the need arises to know and introduce the
maximum acceptable level of performance which defines the end of the service life of the
element being considered (Silva, de Brito, and Gaspar, 2016). In spite of the fact that service life
concept is simple, its prediction or simulation is extremely difficult. This is because an acceptance
criteria must be defined, which varies with time; place; stakeholder; social; economic; political;
aesthetic and environmental context of the building under analysis (Gaspar, 2009).

Furthermore, as service life can hardly be accurately predicted, the challenge of today, therefore, is
how to use available information to get the most reliable estimate (Madrigal, Lanzarote, and Fran
Bretones, 2015). According to Shoet and Paciuk (2004), models and methods currently used for the
prediction of the life cycles of building elements can be grouped into: analytical models, statistical
models, empirical models and experimental methods. While analytical methods identify the
mechanisms of wear and tear and simulate them, they use a performance limit criterion to determine
the service life. In the statistical methods, statistical and probabilistic means are employed for
predicting and assessing performance and probability of failure (Lounis, Vanier, Lacasse, and Kyle,
1999). On the other hand, empirical methods use previous experience with the same or similar
construction, and occupation or climatic exposure, to assess service life (British Standards Institution,
1992). Analytical (mathematical-physical) models of service life are very complex even if the
variables are independent. This is because they take into account the stochastic characteristics of the
variables which always require a large amount of information on variables and their relationships
(Marteinsson, 2005). Analytical models for service life functions are few and in general, service life
estimation is made on the basis of empirical models. Generally, the literature groups service life
prediction methods into three distinct categories: Deterministic, Stochastic and Engineering models
(Moser, 1999; Lacasse and Sjostron, 2004). However, these main groups can be subdivided into
different parts according to Silva et al. (2016). The categories and different parts as described by these
authors are as follows:
Deterministic models: These models are often developed based on the knowledge of influencing
factors that affect the degradation of the building component under study. Most analytical models fall

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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review

into this group and the factor method ''Classical approach'' is the most popular and thus considered as
the representative of deterministic models in some literature. When the modes of actions of these
factors are studied and well understood, the degradation behaviour of material and components is then
modelled, after which the degradation factors are converted to functions expressing their action with
time until the maximum acceptable degradation level of element analyzed is reached. The notable
advantages of these methods are; their understanding and application is easy; and they maintain their
operability even when all the variables related with modelled phenomena are known. Nevertheless, the
method has been criticized mainly as a result of its simplistic way of handling complex subject such as
service life of building and its components.
Also, it should be understood that the purpose for which empirical methods have been developed is to
evaluate the durability of a building or its components under actual condition of service and this is
based on data collected during field work. The physical and functional degradation of elements are
converted to quantitative information and the numerical data so generated can be used to obtain
service life through graphical procedure and a statistical analysis of the evolution of degradation
overtime (Silva, de Brito, and Gaspar, 2016). However, the universal applicability of an empirical
model should not be considered as a weakness provided it is reasonably accurate and can be applied
practically to reinforced concrete structures under similar condition to those used in obtaining the data
used in its development (Otieno, 2014). Deterministic models based on regression analysis, are
divided into three parts:
(i) Simple regression analysis (linear and non-linear): simple regression models are based on
degradation curves that show the loss of performance of the element overtime.
(ii) Multiple linear regression analysis: The most significant variables to the description of
degradation of element are analyzed and causal relationships between variables and their
implications on service lives are analyzed.
(iii) Multiple non-linear regression analysis: This has to do with the application of various non-
linear regression analysis to generate service life models.
According to Paulo, Branco, de Brito (2014), the factor method proposed by ISO 15686 standard ISO
(2000), is the most commonly accepted example of a deterministic model. It should be noted however,
that other types of deterministic models can be obtained through mathematical laws which can be used
to model the degradation of structural elements. Example of this is Gompertz laws or Weilbull curves.
More so, practical solutions to service life problems have been achieved with this method and the
method has been widely used. It has also formed the basis for the international standard for the
durability of buildings (ISO, 2011).
Stochastic models: Stochastic method is a method of modelling that sees and considers degradation
for each property at a point in time as a stochastic process and therefore establishes for it, a probability
of degradation (Madrigal, Lanzarote, and Fran Bretones, 2015 and Wu, Zhou, Kou, and Jiang, 2015).
The complexity of degradation mechanism necessitates the use of probabilistic model to predict the
service life of construction elements. Most empirical models are stochastic/probabilistic models. In
this method, the degradation of construction elements is viewed as a stochastic process that is, a set of
random variables that define probability parameter affecting the average degradation curve. Realizing
or developing this type of model can be complex due to the requirement of extensive and realistic
information that needs to be collected over a considerable period of time. Owing to the complexity of
this type of model, most of the proposed stochastic models in the literature focus on reinforced
concrete subjected to a degradation agent (usually chloride attack) (Silva, de Brito, and Gaspar, 2016;
Lounis, Lacasse, Siemes, and Moser, 1998); popular examples are the Markov chains (empirical
models developed using logistic regression) and the MEDIC method.
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Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
Engineering models: Engineering model is a simple deterministic equation developed by the
combination of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to service life model. The method is a
symbiosis between the two methods earlier mentioned. The model is easy to learn, understand and
apply as deterministic methods, but allows the description of the degradation process in a stochastic
way (Re Cecconi, 2002). These models must neither be too simple nor too complex but can possess an
acceptable level of complexity. They are implemented using probabilistic data and can be used to
identify the degradation phenomena in a more analytical way. Some of the most popular engineering
models are the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), the performance limit methods and the
probabilistic approach of the factor method (Silva, de Brito, & Gaspar, 2016). Computational models
of Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy logics are developed using deterministic algorithm and as
such can be grouped under engineering models owing to the fact that the trait of both deterministic and
stochastic models can still be found in them. However, some are purely stochastic.
The Factor Method
There are two distinct methods of service life prediction today, the probabilistic method and the
factorial method (Moser and Edvarden, 2002). However, members of CIB W80-RILEM 175 SLM
suggested that each method of service life prediction should be categorized into the following groups:
Factor method (representing the deterministic methods); Probabilistic methods and Engineering
method (Re Cecconi, 2002).
The Factor Method (classical approach) is the simplest possible approach to service life prediction. It
consists of combining reference service life (RSL) value with seven different factors, according to
equation (2) in Re Cecconi (2002).

ESL (R S L) A B C D E F G (2)
ISO 15686-1 (ISO, 2011) defines the factors as follows:
A is Quality of component;
B is Quality of Design;
C is Workmanship level;
D is Internal environment;
E is External environment;
F is In-use condition;
G is Maintenance level; and
E S L is Estimated Service Life, RSL is Reference Service Life
It is the most commonly accepted example of deterministic model as proposed by ISO 15686
standard ISO (2000). With this method, the service life of an element or system can be quantified
under specific conditions using the deterministic approach, provided a reference service life for that
specific condition is available which will be modified by the factors dependent on that specific
condition (Madrigal, Lanzarote and Fran Bretones, 2015).
The Markov Chain Model
The Markov chain model is the most common statistical/stochastic service life model that is in use
today. In this type of model, the Markov chain is used to approximate an average condition rating
obtained through a regression function as shown in equations (3) - (7) (Racutanu and Sundquist,
2002).
Let:
E (t, p) = values of condition ratings at time t
Y (t) = regression function for average condition rating

E(t, p) Y(t) (3)

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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review

The regression function Y(t) is expressed thus:


Y(t) Q(t). RT = Qt. RT = Qo. Pt. RT (4)

Combining equation (3) & (4), it follows that:

E(t, p) = Q(t). RT = Qt. RT = Qo. Pt. RT (5)

where subscript T is transformation


Q(t) is state vector
P is transition probability matrix
R is vector of condition rating

The transition probability matrix can be expressed as (n x n) matrix P, where;

P=[ ] (6)

∑| |

And the diagonal transition elements P1,1 P2,2...Pn,n may be obtained using non-linear minimization
equation (7) or more advanced numerical method.

When compared with regression or deterministic model, service life models developed on Markov
chain theory accommodate stochastic nature of service life of structural elements and are properly
developed on simple matrix operations.

The Japanese Model for Durability Design of Concrete Structures


One of the popular engineering (empirical) models published by the Japan Society of Civil Engineers
is the Japanese durability design model developed by the subcommittee on durability design for
concrete structures (Bjegovic, Selih, Mikulic, and Stipanovic, 2003). The developers of this model
believe that durability design of concrete structures is based on verification of the condition of
equation (8) for each structural element:

(8)
where:

is the durability index determined by design


is the environmental index based on environmental conditions

(9)
I and J are durability points (determined for all parameters that influence the durability of the structure
such as cracks, concrete protection, shape and dimensions of elements, among others)

 +∑( (10)
is the value of environmental index for normal environmental condition.
is the additional index for severe environmental conditions.
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Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
Several other models that are basically engineering in nature have been developed based on Computer
integrated knowledge and these models need very few input data that can be easily obtained in order to
predict the service life of reinforced concrete elements. Examples are Clinconc, Duracrete DuCOM
and Life-365.
According to Marteinsson (2005), if a model is to be practically useful for producers and the
construction market, the input parameters for service life estimation must be limited and for the factor
method, this condition is met.
Service life prediction literature has provided considerable evidence that the factor method is potent
enough to predict service life of reinforced concrete buildings.
Sundry Refinements of the Factor Method
Moser and Edvardsen (2002) in their work ''engineering design methods for service life prediction'',
worked on the heavy drawbacks of the factor method and the probabilistic method. The authors were
able to work on the simplicity of the factor method by expanding it towards the more sophisticated
models using the recursive Delphic method. The relevant factors in the factor method were replaced
by density distributions instead of plain factors. This has greatly improved the information content, the
relevance of the results and the method in society of service life prediction methodologies. Thus, this
engineering method will give fewer errors and fewer traps will be stepped into and yet yielding nearly
as good results as the sophisticated, specialized, too cumbersome or too complicated probabilistic
models.
Hendricks et al., (2004) describes the link between environmental load in the building and other
sectors. The use of the factor method is described when making environmental calculations while
additional information is given for enhanced calculations. Two new factors were introduced, making
all the specific aspects of building situation to be mentioned. The introduction of the factor that
describes the accessibility of a product to be replaced and the combination with the replacement of
component which is referred to as “trend” and its related component which are not mentioned in ISO
standard prompted the authors to call it the improved factor method as adding these two factors will
bring the estimated service life of component closer to the actual service life rather than just as
representative for the technical service life. The authors however concluded that the reliability of this
method can be enhanced if statistical distribution is added to estimate a better service life without the
necessity for huge data on components deterioration.
Re Cecconi (2004) developed a software tool that joins the fast and easy approach of the factor
method (a deterministic method) to the better accuracy of the engineering method. Since service life
planning and service life prediction are today ruled by the ISO 15686 standard and researchers want to
have a method that is easy to use like the factor method and that better follows the uncertainty of input
data, the author has made an attempt to evolve factor method to an engineering method by using
probabilistic input data. The author used Monte Carlo technique to model input data. He further
described statistically, every element of the factor method given three values, the minimum, maximum
and most probable value which seems to be more applicable in practice than others based on the mean
and variance. The author concluded that though the tool may be difficult to use at the input stage, a
more useful result is however obtained.
Marteinsson (2005), in his work "Service Life Estimation in the Design of Buildings: a Development
of the Factor Method'' discussed the contributions of the factor method in service life planning,
modification and development of the methodology. He noted that the factor method is a potent tool
that could be used to compare different design scenarios in a standardized or structured way. He
further discussed the fact that there are only few examples that demonstrate the use of this
methodology, and that has led to much discussion of the method by researchers. However, the
relevance of this method in the future is a function of how practically applicable it is. The author
further discussed how precise this methodology could be on the basis of material property distribution,
and the fact that limited consequences of failure are associated with it.

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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review

Hovde (2005) presented a proposal to support the estimation of service life of building elements or
materials at the architectural and structural engineering design stages of a building. Requirement of
design lives of buildings, building components and services, and the meaning of each of the factors
involved were also explained. The paper also explained the factor method and refers to some
developments and evaluation of the method that are on-going internationally. General examples of
how an appropriate value for each of the factors and the conditions under which different values may
be chosen formed the main part of the paper. The author finally emphasized the need to construct
service life data base for reference service life (RSL) of building elements and materials as well as an
appropriate range of values for the factors.
Venkatesan et al. (2006), used state-of-the art approaches to estimate the residual service life of a case
study building façade using information from reports before major repairs were undertaken and
seasonal audit reports of public asset building in Melbourne. The authors developed a Bamforth’s
service life model for the building façade under study, estimated the residual service life of the case
study building by simply multiplying factors derived on judgement basis. Rigorous estimate of
residual service life was also made based on probability distribution of factors in the ISO method
while MEDIC method was also used to estimate the residual service life of the case study building
facade. The authors compared the estimates for the residual service life with expert opinion and
concluded that a combination of residual service life method may be necessary in actual estimation of
service life of buildings and that meaningful estimate using state of the art residual service life
methods can be obtained, which can then be evaluated using expert opinions to arrive at informed
decision. Finally, they recommended that for successful use of existing residual service life
methodologies, record of reference service life of elements under a particular condition and the
identification of rigorous basis for ISO factor method is essential.
Daniotti, Spagnolo and Paolini (2008), developed an enhanced factor method that has the ability to
guide users in correctly assigning the values of the factors without tampering with the simplicity of the
method, but making it more objective. The authors used experimental durability test method to
develop the factor grid using specific software for different simulations. The evaluation grids were
able to drive the user of the factor method in obtaining the correct value of each factor. Furthermore,
the factor grid was defined in the paper and the main degradation actions were individualized,
characterizing each factor with the use of specific sub factors which are needed to determine how
much influence or in what way they can affect service life. This has improved the factor method
proposed by ISO 15686 making it more objective and reliable as against the limit of subjectivity.
El-Dash (2001) used the factor method for the determination of service life of some public buildings
under harsh weather in Kuwait. Data were collected for the assessment of structural behaviour of
twenty-six buildings belonging to Kuwait University. The buildings were located in two regions, the
buildings that in the first category stand at between 100-400m away from the coast while the buildings
in the second category were located at 5km away from the coast. The assessment of the buildings was
via visual inspection, material testing and structural analysis. Values were assigned to different
predictive factors with the help of the findings as against using deterministic values, while the
uncertainty in the prediction process was incorporated in statistical form. The high value, the low
value and the most likely value were introduced by the author. However, the reference service life
used in computing the service life in the work was the one proposed by service life authorities.
Corvacho and Quintela (2011) worked on establishing specific criteria for the application of ISO
15686 factor method for service life estimation. This was done by full characterization, definition of
performance requirement, collection of standards and other regulatory documents, study of the
possible degradation mechanism, search for the available reference service life, identification of the
relevant factors affecting service life estimation, proposal of sub-factors and evaluation of criteria to
be considered in a specific framework and theoretical application of the factor method using
conventional factors value in order to allow for comparison of different situations. Several worked
examples of the construction of frame works for the determination of factor values were presented but
LAUTECH Journal of Civil and Environmental Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
the authors only considered the great part of construction elements, concrete structural elements are
completely exempted from this work.
Moreno (2012), explained how to use ISO 156886 for estimating the service life of building project in
his review. The paper discussed in general with an illustrative example of the most important factors
affecting the durability of buildings, and addressed it properly with a case study. The author described
and differentiated the concepts of reference service life and the design service life. He also
emphasized the fact that the knowledge and experience of the user cannot be ignored as the method
directly depends on it and concluded that material quality and maintenance are the two important
factors that mostly affect the durability and service life of buildings in Mexico. He however
recommended the factor method as a very fast and efficacious estimation method mainly in systems
such as an entire building. One hypothetical case was presented as an example and the reference
service life given by a construction guide in Mexico was used.
Hernandez-Moreno et al., (2014) made use of ISO 15686 ISO (2000) method to estimate the service
life of an architectonic project of a dome designed with adobe technology in the city of Toluca,
Mexico, in which seven factors were used in estimating the service life of the dome. The authors
concluded that although the method was not perfect, this method presents a very good option when a
rough estimate of service life of building or its component is required with fewer details and without
delay. They also opine that professionals in the building industry and developers will find this method
very useful at the early stage of design especially in pre-design and planning stage. It should be noted
that the authors used a deterministic (single) value for the seven factors used for the factor method and
the reference service life was taken from the Canadian Standard Association document. Furthermore,
the authors only used the ISO 15686 factor method for estimating service life of building and building
component (for building not yet constructed) but did not mention service life prediction.
Madrigal, Lanzarote and Fran Bretones (2015) developed a table for the two most typical systems in
outer walls and roofs which must be filled with the characteristics of the construction element under
study. The method aims to estimate the service life and depending on the condition of the system,
correct it according to certain factors. This method is based on the factor method given by ISO 15686
but factors affecting durability of walls and roof were given a better definition than in ISO 15686 with
a clear way of obtaining each of these factors. The authors have opened up a line of research which
needs attention of researchers. This is because they have only worked on roofs and walls and given a
few examples to apply this proposed method to main structural elements of building structure.
De Pinho (2016) exploited the strength of the factor method in the prediction of service life of ETICS
(External Thermal Insulation Composite System); a bibliographical research and field work were used
in this research. Simple visual inspections of façade exposed to various degradation agents were used
to collect data which were registered and systematized in an inspection and diagnosis sheet. Specific
software was used to analyze the information gathered in the field work and the development of the
service life prediction models was initiated. Degradation scale was set according to defect type that
was used to calculate some numerical indicators which enabled degradation quantification and the
graphical determination of deterioration patterns. Unlike the ISO 15686 ISO (2000), the reference
service life used in this work was modified by 11 factors, ranging from type of system, color, ease of
inspection etc. Although this work was based on ETICS, it has nevertheless demonstrated the strength
and technicalities in the factor method of service life prediction. More so, the work has also shown
that factor method of service life prediction allows well and can accommodate application of statistical
tools. However, there is need to apply this method to structural elements of building also and not just
the non-structural components.

62
Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review

Results and Discussion


Looking at the numerous research papers on Models, standards, codes and guides for service life
prediction of reinforced concrete buildings, it can be concluded that the philosophical foundation
needed has been laid, waiting for good superstructures which are predictive models that are practically
applicable. These significant contributions are expected to have collectively provided a substantial
depth of knowledge to the field of service life prediction for reinforced concrete buildings such that
service life model and modeling for reinforced concrete building would have reached an advanced
stage at the present time.
However, service life prediction for reinforced concrete buildings is still under consideration for
inclusion in building design process in spite of the numerous standards, codes and guides that have
been developed. Till date, durability assessment and service life prediction are still being anticipated
to become a part of project documentation. Meanwhile, this field of research has been identified in the
early 1950's.
Moreso, researchers today are more interested in building components than the whole building. This
explains why more research papers are available in the literature on non-structural components of the
building than the structural elements. Although most of these researchers obtain their information
from industries which make their job quite easy but the possibility of the industries to be biased cannot
be ruled out. It is therefore important for research institutes to be more involved in building material
research projects.
In most cases around the world, depending on the mind and status of building owner, desire to change
any of the non-structural components of the building for aesthetic or function reasons may arise
anytime within the service life of the building. Whether such components are working under total
efficiency or not, the owner may want it replaced with better component. It may be therefore more
appropriate to consider structural elements in a building as main determinant of service life of the
building in as much as they cannot be replaced throughout the service life of the building.
Furthermore, the fact that development of models for service life prediction is a continuing process
cannot be denied. Many researchers have developed several models which have not been validated
despite the fact that accelerated aging process were used in developing these models. This reason
coupled with the fact that most of these models have numerous impute parameters that are not easy to
obtain have made these models to remain on the literature pages without practical application. Today
there are service life models such as Life-365, ClinConc, fibBulletin 34, DuraCrete, Stadium,
Concrete works e.t.c which have being developed over a decade ago some of which are fully
probabilistic, a serious issue of concern is whether researchers are making serious efforts to improve
on or further develop these models.
Conclusions
Various models for service life prediction of reinforced concrete buildings have been reviewed. The
following conclusions follow from this review:
(i) Useful and reliable information must be available in form of service life database.
(ii) In order to enhance wider acceptability and use of a prediction model for service life of
buildings, demonstration of practical application is required as methodologies presented in
the form of guidelines are not sufficient to guide users.
(iii) Manufacturers can only give service life information for their own products. However,
service life information needed for prediction of service life of structural members can only
be obtained from the buildings through non-destructive testing.
(iv) Expert opinions should still be placed at par with computer-integrated knowledge system.
(v) Further research on service life modelling should focus on whole building rather than
building components.
(vi) In order for service life prediction of reinforced concrete building to be more generally
acceptable and practically relevant, structural elements should be assigned the level of
importance they deserve in prediction models.
LAUTECH Journal of Civil and Environmental Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
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