Prediction of Remaining Service Life
Prediction of Remaining Service Life
Prediction of Remaining Service Life
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LAUTECH Journal of Civil and Environmental Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review
1*
Omoare A. 2Arum C. and 3Olanitori L. M.
1, 2, 3
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria
Corresponding Author e-mail: eromoare@gmail.com Tel: 08032245218
Submitted on: 22/07/2022 Accepted on: 30/09/2022
Abstract
Service life models are a part of critical anchors to achieving sustainable development goals, offering
sustainable solutions for infrastructural advancement. In spite of their indisputable usefulness and
acceptability in the scientific circle, their real-world deployment is still grossly inadequate. The
overall objective of this review is to assess the existing service life prediction models with highlights of
their highs and lows. The models identified include deterministic, stochastic and engineering. Areas
requiring more intensive research identified include the development of service life database,
simplification of the complicated mathematical formats of service life models into simpler more
practically-manageable formats, comparative study of expert opinions and computer integrated
knowledge, as well as the place of structural elements in service life determination compared to non-
structural elements. The study finally notes the areas that will give the required shape and speed of
development to service life modeling of reinforced concrete buildings which include the provision of
service life database, practical application of service life model for user-guidance, the superiority of
service life data from non-destructive testing results to commercial data from manufacturers,
placement of experts' opinions at par with computer integrated knowledge system, and using complete
building for service life determination rather than building elements. This review will serve as
information base on various service life models which should assist early researchers in the subject
area and speed up the application from the rudimentary to more advanced stages within the
foreseeable future.
Keywords: Service Life Model, Database, Durability, Building Component, Sustainable Development
Introduction
Infrastructure is a major determinant of economic growth in any society and the commonest
infrastructure is the building. Buildings are important because they constitute an indicator of the
standard of living of the occupants. This makes the maintenance of reinforced concrete buildings an
increasingly important topic around the world (Possan, Dal-Molin and Andrade, 2018). It is generally
agreed that infrastructure and technology have to be improved in order to achieve sustainable
development (Ng'ang'a, 2012). It is the consciousness of and the desire for sustainable development
that has steered the interest of many researchers to service life prediction of reinforced concrete
buildings. In an attempt to conserve and protect the scarce natural resources while maintaining
environmental balance that has been established around a building structure for decades, the option of
demolishing and constructing a new building seems unappealing to building owners. On the other
hand, refurbishment cost of building can be as high as half of new construction. In the light of this
situation, the most acceptable option is to determine the service life of the building, analyze
investment options and adopt the most economical option.
Therefore, it has become worthwhile and imperative to develop models for predicting the service life
of buildings, which can aid in decision making for repairs, strengthening or demolition (Liang, Kao,
Hung, and Oung, 2009). Numerous service life prediction models have been developed and the
development is on-going. Some are based on numerical method while others are on computational,
empirical, or reliability approach, among others. Though the development of these models is a difficult
task, many researchers have nevertheless developed service life prediction models. However, their
application remains a challenging task. This paper attempts to carry out a wide-scale review of the
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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review
available related research works on service life prediction models, highlighting the high and low
points of each of the models.
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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review
The table presents different definitions of service life that are of general interest. Obviously, the
definitions are quite similar and it is worthy of note that some of these definitions (S/Nos. 1, 5 and 8)
are found in standard documents while other authors more or less derived their definitions from them.
However, because of its tone and its practical language, the definition given by ASTM (1982) S/No. 1
is hereby recommended.
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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review
is available, also with enough information, it should be possible to predict the life of a complete
building from the predicted service lives of the building elements and construction materials in that
same building (Frohnsdorff, and Martins, 1996). Likewise, after the determination of concrete mix
design and structural qualities, together with the environmental conditions of the concrete location,
service life can be predicted with fundamental mathematical models that simulate the deterioration
mechanism and rate of chloride penetration and carbonation. Other chemical attacks are some of the
basic phenomena upon which the prediction is based (Papadakis and Efsthathiou, 2005).
Furthermore, as service life can hardly be accurately predicted, the challenge of today, therefore, is
how to use available information to get the most reliable estimate (Madrigal, Lanzarote, and Fran
Bretones, 2015). According to Shoet and Paciuk (2004), models and methods currently used for the
prediction of the life cycles of building elements can be grouped into: analytical models, statistical
models, empirical models and experimental methods. While analytical methods identify the
mechanisms of wear and tear and simulate them, they use a performance limit criterion to determine
the service life. In the statistical methods, statistical and probabilistic means are employed for
predicting and assessing performance and probability of failure (Lounis, Vanier, Lacasse, and Kyle,
1999). On the other hand, empirical methods use previous experience with the same or similar
construction, and occupation or climatic exposure, to assess service life (British Standards Institution,
1992). Analytical (mathematical-physical) models of service life are very complex even if the
variables are independent. This is because they take into account the stochastic characteristics of the
variables which always require a large amount of information on variables and their relationships
(Marteinsson, 2005). Analytical models for service life functions are few and in general, service life
estimation is made on the basis of empirical models. Generally, the literature groups service life
prediction methods into three distinct categories: Deterministic, Stochastic and Engineering models
(Moser, 1999; Lacasse and Sjostron, 2004). However, these main groups can be subdivided into
different parts according to Silva et al. (2016). The categories and different parts as described by these
authors are as follows:
Deterministic models: These models are often developed based on the knowledge of influencing
factors that affect the degradation of the building component under study. Most analytical models fall
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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review
into this group and the factor method ''Classical approach'' is the most popular and thus considered as
the representative of deterministic models in some literature. When the modes of actions of these
factors are studied and well understood, the degradation behaviour of material and components is then
modelled, after which the degradation factors are converted to functions expressing their action with
time until the maximum acceptable degradation level of element analyzed is reached. The notable
advantages of these methods are; their understanding and application is easy; and they maintain their
operability even when all the variables related with modelled phenomena are known. Nevertheless, the
method has been criticized mainly as a result of its simplistic way of handling complex subject such as
service life of building and its components.
Also, it should be understood that the purpose for which empirical methods have been developed is to
evaluate the durability of a building or its components under actual condition of service and this is
based on data collected during field work. The physical and functional degradation of elements are
converted to quantitative information and the numerical data so generated can be used to obtain
service life through graphical procedure and a statistical analysis of the evolution of degradation
overtime (Silva, de Brito, and Gaspar, 2016). However, the universal applicability of an empirical
model should not be considered as a weakness provided it is reasonably accurate and can be applied
practically to reinforced concrete structures under similar condition to those used in obtaining the data
used in its development (Otieno, 2014). Deterministic models based on regression analysis, are
divided into three parts:
(i) Simple regression analysis (linear and non-linear): simple regression models are based on
degradation curves that show the loss of performance of the element overtime.
(ii) Multiple linear regression analysis: The most significant variables to the description of
degradation of element are analyzed and causal relationships between variables and their
implications on service lives are analyzed.
(iii) Multiple non-linear regression analysis: This has to do with the application of various non-
linear regression analysis to generate service life models.
According to Paulo, Branco, de Brito (2014), the factor method proposed by ISO 15686 standard ISO
(2000), is the most commonly accepted example of a deterministic model. It should be noted however,
that other types of deterministic models can be obtained through mathematical laws which can be used
to model the degradation of structural elements. Example of this is Gompertz laws or Weilbull curves.
More so, practical solutions to service life problems have been achieved with this method and the
method has been widely used. It has also formed the basis for the international standard for the
durability of buildings (ISO, 2011).
Stochastic models: Stochastic method is a method of modelling that sees and considers degradation
for each property at a point in time as a stochastic process and therefore establishes for it, a probability
of degradation (Madrigal, Lanzarote, and Fran Bretones, 2015 and Wu, Zhou, Kou, and Jiang, 2015).
The complexity of degradation mechanism necessitates the use of probabilistic model to predict the
service life of construction elements. Most empirical models are stochastic/probabilistic models. In
this method, the degradation of construction elements is viewed as a stochastic process that is, a set of
random variables that define probability parameter affecting the average degradation curve. Realizing
or developing this type of model can be complex due to the requirement of extensive and realistic
information that needs to be collected over a considerable period of time. Owing to the complexity of
this type of model, most of the proposed stochastic models in the literature focus on reinforced
concrete subjected to a degradation agent (usually chloride attack) (Silva, de Brito, and Gaspar, 2016;
Lounis, Lacasse, Siemes, and Moser, 1998); popular examples are the Markov chains (empirical
models developed using logistic regression) and the MEDIC method.
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Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
Engineering models: Engineering model is a simple deterministic equation developed by the
combination of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to service life model. The method is a
symbiosis between the two methods earlier mentioned. The model is easy to learn, understand and
apply as deterministic methods, but allows the description of the degradation process in a stochastic
way (Re Cecconi, 2002). These models must neither be too simple nor too complex but can possess an
acceptable level of complexity. They are implemented using probabilistic data and can be used to
identify the degradation phenomena in a more analytical way. Some of the most popular engineering
models are the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), the performance limit methods and the
probabilistic approach of the factor method (Silva, de Brito, & Gaspar, 2016). Computational models
of Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy logics are developed using deterministic algorithm and as
such can be grouped under engineering models owing to the fact that the trait of both deterministic and
stochastic models can still be found in them. However, some are purely stochastic.
The Factor Method
There are two distinct methods of service life prediction today, the probabilistic method and the
factorial method (Moser and Edvarden, 2002). However, members of CIB W80-RILEM 175 SLM
suggested that each method of service life prediction should be categorized into the following groups:
Factor method (representing the deterministic methods); Probabilistic methods and Engineering
method (Re Cecconi, 2002).
The Factor Method (classical approach) is the simplest possible approach to service life prediction. It
consists of combining reference service life (RSL) value with seven different factors, according to
equation (2) in Re Cecconi (2002).
ESL (R S L) A B C D E F G (2)
ISO 15686-1 (ISO, 2011) defines the factors as follows:
A is Quality of component;
B is Quality of Design;
C is Workmanship level;
D is Internal environment;
E is External environment;
F is In-use condition;
G is Maintenance level; and
E S L is Estimated Service Life, RSL is Reference Service Life
It is the most commonly accepted example of deterministic model as proposed by ISO 15686
standard ISO (2000). With this method, the service life of an element or system can be quantified
under specific conditions using the deterministic approach, provided a reference service life for that
specific condition is available which will be modified by the factors dependent on that specific
condition (Madrigal, Lanzarote and Fran Bretones, 2015).
The Markov Chain Model
The Markov chain model is the most common statistical/stochastic service life model that is in use
today. In this type of model, the Markov chain is used to approximate an average condition rating
obtained through a regression function as shown in equations (3) - (7) (Racutanu and Sundquist,
2002).
Let:
E (t, p) = values of condition ratings at time t
Y (t) = regression function for average condition rating
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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review
P=[ ] (6)
∑| |
And the diagonal transition elements P1,1 P2,2...Pn,n may be obtained using non-linear minimization
equation (7) or more advanced numerical method.
When compared with regression or deterministic model, service life models developed on Markov
chain theory accommodate stochastic nature of service life of structural elements and are properly
developed on simple matrix operations.
(8)
where:
(9)
I and J are durability points (determined for all parameters that influence the durability of the structure
such as cracks, concrete protection, shape and dimensions of elements, among others)
+∑( (10)
is the value of environmental index for normal environmental condition.
is the additional index for severe environmental conditions.
LAUTECH Journal of Civil and Environmental Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
Several other models that are basically engineering in nature have been developed based on Computer
integrated knowledge and these models need very few input data that can be easily obtained in order to
predict the service life of reinforced concrete elements. Examples are Clinconc, Duracrete DuCOM
and Life-365.
According to Marteinsson (2005), if a model is to be practically useful for producers and the
construction market, the input parameters for service life estimation must be limited and for the factor
method, this condition is met.
Service life prediction literature has provided considerable evidence that the factor method is potent
enough to predict service life of reinforced concrete buildings.
Sundry Refinements of the Factor Method
Moser and Edvardsen (2002) in their work ''engineering design methods for service life prediction'',
worked on the heavy drawbacks of the factor method and the probabilistic method. The authors were
able to work on the simplicity of the factor method by expanding it towards the more sophisticated
models using the recursive Delphic method. The relevant factors in the factor method were replaced
by density distributions instead of plain factors. This has greatly improved the information content, the
relevance of the results and the method in society of service life prediction methodologies. Thus, this
engineering method will give fewer errors and fewer traps will be stepped into and yet yielding nearly
as good results as the sophisticated, specialized, too cumbersome or too complicated probabilistic
models.
Hendricks et al., (2004) describes the link between environmental load in the building and other
sectors. The use of the factor method is described when making environmental calculations while
additional information is given for enhanced calculations. Two new factors were introduced, making
all the specific aspects of building situation to be mentioned. The introduction of the factor that
describes the accessibility of a product to be replaced and the combination with the replacement of
component which is referred to as “trend” and its related component which are not mentioned in ISO
standard prompted the authors to call it the improved factor method as adding these two factors will
bring the estimated service life of component closer to the actual service life rather than just as
representative for the technical service life. The authors however concluded that the reliability of this
method can be enhanced if statistical distribution is added to estimate a better service life without the
necessity for huge data on components deterioration.
Re Cecconi (2004) developed a software tool that joins the fast and easy approach of the factor
method (a deterministic method) to the better accuracy of the engineering method. Since service life
planning and service life prediction are today ruled by the ISO 15686 standard and researchers want to
have a method that is easy to use like the factor method and that better follows the uncertainty of input
data, the author has made an attempt to evolve factor method to an engineering method by using
probabilistic input data. The author used Monte Carlo technique to model input data. He further
described statistically, every element of the factor method given three values, the minimum, maximum
and most probable value which seems to be more applicable in practice than others based on the mean
and variance. The author concluded that though the tool may be difficult to use at the input stage, a
more useful result is however obtained.
Marteinsson (2005), in his work "Service Life Estimation in the Design of Buildings: a Development
of the Factor Method'' discussed the contributions of the factor method in service life planning,
modification and development of the methodology. He noted that the factor method is a potent tool
that could be used to compare different design scenarios in a standardized or structured way. He
further discussed the fact that there are only few examples that demonstrate the use of this
methodology, and that has led to much discussion of the method by researchers. However, the
relevance of this method in the future is a function of how practically applicable it is. The author
further discussed how precise this methodology could be on the basis of material property distribution,
and the fact that limited consequences of failure are associated with it.
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Models for the Prediction of Service Life of Buildings - A Review
Hovde (2005) presented a proposal to support the estimation of service life of building elements or
materials at the architectural and structural engineering design stages of a building. Requirement of
design lives of buildings, building components and services, and the meaning of each of the factors
involved were also explained. The paper also explained the factor method and refers to some
developments and evaluation of the method that are on-going internationally. General examples of
how an appropriate value for each of the factors and the conditions under which different values may
be chosen formed the main part of the paper. The author finally emphasized the need to construct
service life data base for reference service life (RSL) of building elements and materials as well as an
appropriate range of values for the factors.
Venkatesan et al. (2006), used state-of-the art approaches to estimate the residual service life of a case
study building façade using information from reports before major repairs were undertaken and
seasonal audit reports of public asset building in Melbourne. The authors developed a Bamforth’s
service life model for the building façade under study, estimated the residual service life of the case
study building by simply multiplying factors derived on judgement basis. Rigorous estimate of
residual service life was also made based on probability distribution of factors in the ISO method
while MEDIC method was also used to estimate the residual service life of the case study building
facade. The authors compared the estimates for the residual service life with expert opinion and
concluded that a combination of residual service life method may be necessary in actual estimation of
service life of buildings and that meaningful estimate using state of the art residual service life
methods can be obtained, which can then be evaluated using expert opinions to arrive at informed
decision. Finally, they recommended that for successful use of existing residual service life
methodologies, record of reference service life of elements under a particular condition and the
identification of rigorous basis for ISO factor method is essential.
Daniotti, Spagnolo and Paolini (2008), developed an enhanced factor method that has the ability to
guide users in correctly assigning the values of the factors without tampering with the simplicity of the
method, but making it more objective. The authors used experimental durability test method to
develop the factor grid using specific software for different simulations. The evaluation grids were
able to drive the user of the factor method in obtaining the correct value of each factor. Furthermore,
the factor grid was defined in the paper and the main degradation actions were individualized,
characterizing each factor with the use of specific sub factors which are needed to determine how
much influence or in what way they can affect service life. This has improved the factor method
proposed by ISO 15686 making it more objective and reliable as against the limit of subjectivity.
El-Dash (2001) used the factor method for the determination of service life of some public buildings
under harsh weather in Kuwait. Data were collected for the assessment of structural behaviour of
twenty-six buildings belonging to Kuwait University. The buildings were located in two regions, the
buildings that in the first category stand at between 100-400m away from the coast while the buildings
in the second category were located at 5km away from the coast. The assessment of the buildings was
via visual inspection, material testing and structural analysis. Values were assigned to different
predictive factors with the help of the findings as against using deterministic values, while the
uncertainty in the prediction process was incorporated in statistical form. The high value, the low
value and the most likely value were introduced by the author. However, the reference service life
used in computing the service life in the work was the one proposed by service life authorities.
Corvacho and Quintela (2011) worked on establishing specific criteria for the application of ISO
15686 factor method for service life estimation. This was done by full characterization, definition of
performance requirement, collection of standards and other regulatory documents, study of the
possible degradation mechanism, search for the available reference service life, identification of the
relevant factors affecting service life estimation, proposal of sub-factors and evaluation of criteria to
be considered in a specific framework and theoretical application of the factor method using
conventional factors value in order to allow for comparison of different situations. Several worked
examples of the construction of frame works for the determination of factor values were presented but
LAUTECH Journal of Civil and Environmental Studies
Volume 9, Issue 1; September, 2022
the authors only considered the great part of construction elements, concrete structural elements are
completely exempted from this work.
Moreno (2012), explained how to use ISO 156886 for estimating the service life of building project in
his review. The paper discussed in general with an illustrative example of the most important factors
affecting the durability of buildings, and addressed it properly with a case study. The author described
and differentiated the concepts of reference service life and the design service life. He also
emphasized the fact that the knowledge and experience of the user cannot be ignored as the method
directly depends on it and concluded that material quality and maintenance are the two important
factors that mostly affect the durability and service life of buildings in Mexico. He however
recommended the factor method as a very fast and efficacious estimation method mainly in systems
such as an entire building. One hypothetical case was presented as an example and the reference
service life given by a construction guide in Mexico was used.
Hernandez-Moreno et al., (2014) made use of ISO 15686 ISO (2000) method to estimate the service
life of an architectonic project of a dome designed with adobe technology in the city of Toluca,
Mexico, in which seven factors were used in estimating the service life of the dome. The authors
concluded that although the method was not perfect, this method presents a very good option when a
rough estimate of service life of building or its component is required with fewer details and without
delay. They also opine that professionals in the building industry and developers will find this method
very useful at the early stage of design especially in pre-design and planning stage. It should be noted
that the authors used a deterministic (single) value for the seven factors used for the factor method and
the reference service life was taken from the Canadian Standard Association document. Furthermore,
the authors only used the ISO 15686 factor method for estimating service life of building and building
component (for building not yet constructed) but did not mention service life prediction.
Madrigal, Lanzarote and Fran Bretones (2015) developed a table for the two most typical systems in
outer walls and roofs which must be filled with the characteristics of the construction element under
study. The method aims to estimate the service life and depending on the condition of the system,
correct it according to certain factors. This method is based on the factor method given by ISO 15686
but factors affecting durability of walls and roof were given a better definition than in ISO 15686 with
a clear way of obtaining each of these factors. The authors have opened up a line of research which
needs attention of researchers. This is because they have only worked on roofs and walls and given a
few examples to apply this proposed method to main structural elements of building structure.
De Pinho (2016) exploited the strength of the factor method in the prediction of service life of ETICS
(External Thermal Insulation Composite System); a bibliographical research and field work were used
in this research. Simple visual inspections of façade exposed to various degradation agents were used
to collect data which were registered and systematized in an inspection and diagnosis sheet. Specific
software was used to analyze the information gathered in the field work and the development of the
service life prediction models was initiated. Degradation scale was set according to defect type that
was used to calculate some numerical indicators which enabled degradation quantification and the
graphical determination of deterioration patterns. Unlike the ISO 15686 ISO (2000), the reference
service life used in this work was modified by 11 factors, ranging from type of system, color, ease of
inspection etc. Although this work was based on ETICS, it has nevertheless demonstrated the strength
and technicalities in the factor method of service life prediction. More so, the work has also shown
that factor method of service life prediction allows well and can accommodate application of statistical
tools. However, there is need to apply this method to structural elements of building also and not just
the non-structural components.
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