2024 Global Fraud and Scams Trends Report
2024 Global Fraud and Scams Trends Report
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
About Outseer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
As financial crime escalates annually, companies must remain abreast of the latest trends and adapt their
strategies to combat constantly evolving fraud tactics.
The Outseer Global Fraud and Scams Trends Report offers a comprehensive analysis of fraud attacks and
consumer fraud data collected and analyzed by our team of fraud experts. Leveraging our proprietary
insights gained from safeguarding Outseer customers, this report sheds light on the ever-evolving cyber
fraud landscape that affects organizations of all sizes.
1
Trojan attacks experienced the largest year-over-year increase in attack
volumes, driven by refined phishing tactics.
The rise of Malware-as-a-Service emerged as a significant cybersecurity threat as the volume of
malware events surged 120% in the total volume of attacks year-over-year, compared to a 5.5%
increase in phishing attacks and a 25% and 7.7% decrease for rogue mobile app attacks and
brand abuse attacks, respectively. Malware-as-a-Service enables any fraudster with $50–200
dollars to evolve into a complex cyber threat that uses malware to enable their fraud attacks.
Polymorphic malware is not a new concept, but fraudsters are now using generative AI to
reduce the skill level required to spawn malware variants that elude signature-based security
systems, consequently challenging the efficacy of existing security protocols. This has been
seen increasingly in banking Trojans, which intercept notifications and bypass alerts requiring
secure channels. And their persistence easily evades detection on mobile devices.
2
The increase in mobile banking and Malware-as-a-Service have sent malware
attacks to all-time highs.
The role of malware in fraud was a major theme through 2023. Fraudsters have taken an
interest in information-stealing malware, Malware-as-a-Service and other ‘as-a-service’ type
offerings, so much so that while the volume of fraud observed grew 108%, malware attacks
grew by a staggering 4,000% or 40X growth in volume, partially due to the increase in malware
in mobile channels. Part of this can be attributed to the rise in mobile app usage. With the
increased usage, fraudsters are targeting the channel.
3
The adoption of real-time payments has increased APP scams; some countries
are responding with regulation and liability shifts.
Outseer has seen a significant uptick in unauthorized push payments, mule accounts, and
account takeovers in markets where faster payment adoption is high. Surveyed financial
institutions saw a spike in fraud attacks using real-time rail: 57% reported mule activity was up,
71% reported consumer ATO had increased, and 62% reported APP fraud had increased.
The UK and EU have been on the forefront of change with the introduction of the Payment
Systems Regulator (PSR) and the upcoming Payment Services Directive 3 (PSD3). In late 2024,
the specifics of PSD3 and the implementation of the PSR liability shift will be revealed.
4
Prediction: The rise in AI will fuel scams and corresponding losses in the
coming year.
AI has dominated the headlines over the past year and fraudsters have already begun to
exploit this technology, with several major scams reported globally. With new AI tools and
technology at their disposal, fraudsters are creating varied phishing emails that defeat existing
scam and spam email filters. In addition to improving tried-and-true techniques, fraudsters
are using AI more often on deepfakes, voice cloning, verification fraud, and authorized push
payment (APP) fraud.
While Outseer didn’t see direct fraud losses from generative AI in 2023, we predict that the
scams and corresponding losses will continue to grow. Given the goal of generative AI scams
is to trick people into believing what fraudsters put out there, Outseer does believe that
generative AI contributed to the increased effectiveness of phishing tactics that fueled an even
larger increase in Trojan attacks and malware attacks.
Despite the ways generative AI is being manipulated, predictive AI has also played a pivotal
role in detecting cyber threats such as brand abuse, phishing, Trojans, and rogue mobile apps.
The strength of AI and machine learning in combating these threats lies in their ability to
continuously learn, adapt, and detect evolving patterns of malicious behavior across various
digital landscapes. These technologies enable proactive and adaptive security measures,
ultimately contributing to a more robust defense against cyber threats.
Fraud
Landscape
Scams Phishing
Mule Accounts
Here is a summary of the types of common attacks that Outseer sees year-over-year:
While phishing saw a moderate attack increase, brand abuse and rogue mobile app attacks saw a decrease in
volume. However, Trojan horse attacks saw sizeable increases in the volume of attacks.
9% 19%
Rogue Mobile Apps
Mobile applications using Phishing
an organization’s brand Cyberattacks attempting to steal personal
without permission information from unwitting end-users
under false pretenses—either be email,
phone call (vishing), or SMS text (smishing)
12%
18%
5%
11%
Trojan Horse
Stealthy malware installed under
false pretenses, attempting to
steal personal user information
65%
60%
2023 vs 2022
Brand Abuse
Online content (e.g., social media)
that misuses an organizations’s brand
with the purpose of misleading users
3 Phishing website
Fraud attacks continue to pose a significant threat to individuals and organizations worldwide.
Phishing is notable because it is the entryway for many other attacks and scams. It is also very
difficult to track, and more importantly, difficult to take down fraud rings.
Cybercriminals strategically exploit servers across different regions to carry out their malicious
activities. While specific regions are notorious for hosting these malevolent servers, cybercrime
transcends borders and attacks can originate from servers located in any country.
The Role of Generative AI for Fraud & Predictive AI for Fraud Prevention
AI has dominated the headlines over the past year, sparking numerous discussions and debates over its
merits and potential downfalls. Within fraud prevention, AI assumes a dual role, serving as both an empowering
tool for fraudsters and a defense mechanism for those combating fraudulent activities. Fraudsters consistently
demonstrate agility in exploiting emerging technologies. The rapid adoption of advancements, such as
generative adversarial network (GAN) models,4 coupled with the exponential growth of data, fraudsters
have the means to refine their tactics, crafting increasingly sophisticated cyber threats that evade traditional
detection systems.
The proliferation of generative AI and its ability to generate remarkably realistic content and scenarios has
contributed to the escalation of authorized fraud. For example, earlier this year, a Hong Kong finance employee
thought he received a message from the company’s UK-based chief financial officer asking for a $25.6 million
transfer.5 Though initially suspicious that it could be a phishing email, after a deepfake video call with the CFO
and other colleagues he thought the request was legitimate. It was only after reaching back out to the head
office that he discovered that it was, in fact, a scam. Unfortunately, by then the money was transferred.
In another example, over 50 deepfake videos were posted of well-known celebrities,6 encouraging people to
invest in a non-existent cryptocurrency platform seemingly promoted by Elon Musk. While it is unknown how
much was lost in this instance, the videos had tens of thousands of views when removed.
Scams Using AI
Phishing
In the past year, Outseer saw an increase in volume of 5.5%, going
from 18% of attacks identified to 19% of attacks. During this time
5.5%
increase
19% of overall attacks
frame, there was a short-term spike in Q2 and Q3 2023 before
(Second largest in volume )
decreasing slightly in Q4. Trojan and malware attacks have been
the driving force behind this trend. Though they are not new, they
continue to remain popular, as they are effective and are often the
entry point to other scams.
Brand Abuse
Fraudsters have been successful in replicating brand logos and
websites for unsuspecting users to land on through their phishing
7%
decrease
emails and other measures for years, fooling users into providing 60% of overall attacks
(Largest in volume)
credentials to collect money.
When looking across all attack vectors, brand abuse remains the
most prevalent at 60% of all detected attacks. However, overall,
brand abuse has decreased on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the
past two years after peaking in early 2022, for a total decrease of
7%. At the peak in Q1 2022, brand abuse accounted for 81% of
observed attacks. It decreased to 65% in 2022, and to 60% in 2023.
Outseer saw a 120% increase in Trojans this past year, discussed more
in depth with respect to Malware-as-a-Service.
AI for Good
Despite the ways generative AI is being manipulated, AI—especially predictive AI (machine learning)—has
also been a force for good by playing a pivotal role in detecting cyber threats such as brand abuse, phishing,
Trojans, and rogue mobile apps. The strength of AI and machine learning in combating these threats lies
in their ability to continuously learn, adapt, and detect evolving patterns of malicious behavior across
various digital landscapes. These technologies enable proactive and adaptive security measures, ultimately
contributing to a more robust defense against cyber threats.
While the volume of fraud observed grew 108%, malware attacks grew by a staggering 4,000% or 40X growth
in volume, partially due to the increase in malware in mobile channels. From Q3 to Q4 of 2023, malware was
up 41% in a single quarter—all on top of already historic growth over the past two years. We predict that
malware will continue its role as a significant factor in fraud prevention strategies going forward for banks and
financial institutions.
When customers increased their adoption of online and mobile banking, fraudsters began distributing rogue
and malicious mobile apps to steal logins with the hope of stealing the money sitting in those bank accounts.
However, maintaining and supporting these apps was more of a drain on resources and profits and fraudsters
instead opted to scale up social engineering via brand abuse attacks—particularly on social media.
80%
Increase in 60%
usage 20%
0%
Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023
80%
60%
Increase in
mobile fraud 40%
20%
0%
Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023
An increase in malware attacks is problematic at financial institutions even if there are no monetary fraud
losses because operational expenses increase with customer-reported fraud. The expense of securing
customer accounts lost to phishing or card numbers captured by fraudsters can easily run $30–$100 per
customer impacted. This can translate into millions of dollars in operational losses spent, even before
considering reimbursements to replace money lost to fraudsters and scammers. Costs associated with
opening and closing new bank and credit card accounts also increase.
Compromised Cards
In 2023, 31.5 million+ compromised cards and card previews were recovered. Data packets being sold on the
dark web include compromised card information resulting from cyberattacks targeting online transactions and
e-commerce platforms.
List of cards
Bin Exp Name Level Type Bank Zip City State Country Email Phone Refund Price
5104401xxxxxxx061 05/26 Lowell xxxxxxx PREPAID DEBIT <Empty> 98001 Auburn WA US $12.90
5282143xxxxxxx709 04/27 Debbie xxxxxxx PREPAID DEBIT 8901 New Brunswick NJ US $12.90
5336099xxxxxxx328 01/25 Christina xxxxxxx PREPAID DEBIT 55344 Eden Prarie MN US $12.90
5339455xxxxxxx203 12/26 Robert xxxxxxx PREPAID DEBIT 7701 Red Bank NJ US $12.90
5104400xxxxxxx271 04/24 Michelle xxxxxxx PREPAID DEBIT <Empty> 8109 Merchantville NJ US $12.90
5395873xxxxxxx794 01/26 Douglas xxxxxxx PREPAID DEBIT 84120 Wast Valley City UT US $12.90
CC: 45xxxxxxxxxx8027 | 07 | 2024 | 042
5332917xxxxxxx834 04/25 Harold xxxxxxx PREPAID DEBIT 21212
Bin info: 453733
Baltimore MD
- CREDIT
US
- CLASSIC $12.90
Bank info: BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA - CANADA |
5116201xxxxxxx226 11/23 Charles xxxxxxx PREPAID DEBIT 55121 Eagan MN US $12.90 52 14:20
Trojan Surge
Command-and-Control Servers
A key aspect of Malware-as-a-Service is the use of decentralized
Command-and-Control Servers (C&Cs or C2). The communication
established between infected devices and these servers gives
malware operators the ability to receive information on infected
devices and execute additional commands remotely.
By design, Hook has over 750 injections at its disposal, where infected devices overlay a fake interface of a
targeted brand—such as a financial institution’s banking app—onto the legitimate app to deceive users into
entering their sensitive financial information, targeting different brands worldwide. Moreover, the malware
operator can add customized injections if desired.
A major event in the second half of 2023 was the leak of the Hook Android banking Trojan’s APK and Panel
source code using the C&Cs. Because of this leak, Hook garnered considerable attention and focus within the
cybercriminal community. This newfound spotlight propelled Hook’s contribution to the total number of C&Cs
to be on par with the infamous Trojans Hydra, Cerberus, and Octo.
When threat actors identified the ability to easily profit, it led to the development and sale of customized
overlay injections. They have now expanded attacks to target not only traditional financial institutions but also
other financial sectors, including crypto wallets, streaming platforms, delivery services, and retail stores.
Command-and-Control Servers continue to serve as the central control hub for Android Banking Trojans,
granting attackers remote control over infected devices. These servers are the operational core of the malware,
enabling malicious activities.
As fraudsters increasingly leverage Hook, we anticipate continuing to see new variants in the future, each
with potentially enhanced functionalities and more dangerous capabilities. Given the threat Android banking
Trojans pose, Malware-as-a-Service is far from concluded.
Adopting a proactive defense to disrupt phishing and malware stops fraud before it needs to be mitigated by
operations teams, netting a massive savings of 10-to-1 or more in reduced operational expenses at call centers
and banking ops teams.
Currently, more than 70 countries on six continents support real-time payments, representing 195 billion
transactions in 2022 and a 63% year-on-year growth.10 The countries with the highest volume of faster
payment transactions were India, China, Thailand, and Brazil, with annual transactions ranging from 49 billion
in India to 9 billion in Brazil.11 However, the US RTP volume in 2023 was low at only about 249 million, and as of
March 2024, only 5% of US financial institutions participated in US RTP or FedNow, showing that the US is still in
the early phase of instant payments.
While the term “faster payments” is often used as an umbrella term for real-time and instant payments, they
are all similar in that they are payments made between bank accounts that are initiated, cleared, and settled
quickly at any time of the day or week. While the speed of these payments helps to improve convenience,
transparency, and confidence in payments, it also increases the chances for fraud, and in particular authorized
push payment (APP) fraud, when a fraudster tricks their victim into transferring funds into their account by
pretending to be a legitimate payee. In many cases, this happens via social engineering across social media
networks, or by phone. In many markets, APP fraud is growing faster than card fraud.
With the introduction of FEDNOW in the US and the increasing adoption of instant payment systems across the
globe, combined with the success fraudsters are seeing in these types of scams, more opportunities for scams
are expected.
Stopping these scams is difficult because the victims authorize the transactions, often without the realization
they are a scam target until after the payment clears.
Fraudster performs User receives email/text User will enter personal Fraudster now poses as a
reconnaissance attack with either attachment information or malware legitimate person and can
to gain customers or link containing malware will steal sensitive data use data to build trust and
information or phishing website perform an account transfer
Scams rely on the fraudster knowing personal information about customers. In order to gain this information,
fraudsters often execute a phishing attack or buy/obtain the information from elicit sources such as the dark
web. Once the fraudster has obtained personal information about the potential victim, it becomes easier for
them to forge connections, enhancing their credibility.
For example, a fraudster who calls a customer by their first name and confirms their banking institution
or other personal information will always seem more genuine than a cold call where the fraudster has no
connection with the customer.
The consumer is the weakest link in this process because fraudsters have developed and perfected a playbook
and have replicated this attack vector across multiple geographies. The challenges with stopping fraudsters
from obtaining such personal information rely heavily on customer education regarding potential threats since
there is no easy way to detect authorized fraud where the consumer is “tricked.”
Criminal
Money laundering, facilitated by individuals known as money mules, involves the illegal movement of funds
obtained through criminal activities. While those in banking and finance are well-versed in Anti-Money
Laundering (AML) laws, many others remain unaware of the penalties associated with aiding criminals in
moving money.
Money mules, whether knowingly or unknowingly, assist in obscuring the source of illicit funds by transferring
them digitally, in person, or through mail/courier services. The process typically involves the criminal
transferring funds to the money mule, who then integrates them into the financial system through a series
of transactions before returning the layered funds to the criminal, highlighting the ongoing challenge of
combating financial crime.
The crackdowns conducted in June, October, and November 2023 yielded significant results, identifying
10,759 money mules and 474 recruiters, culminating in the arrest of 1,013 individuals worldwide. These insights
underscore the critical importance of continued vigilance and collaborative action to combat the scourge of
money muling, safeguarding financial systems and communities worldwide.
• Leverage a risk-based approach and take advantage of machine learning that profiles the sender and
recipient to more accurately detect mule activities
• Utilize a data network such as the Outseer Global Data Network to help share mule accounts
intelligence with other organizations
• Tap into the timely insights of web intelligence services such as Outseer Fraud Action Services
to identify confirmed mule accounts in addition to compromised email addresses that can be tied
to accounts
The most important part of the liability changes is that financial institutions and payment service providers must
reimburse all in-scope customers that are victims of APP scams, within certain limits. The sending and receiving
financial institutions and payment service providers will share the cost of reimbursements to victims 50-50.
5. Create agile rules to enable the operator to manage evolving fraud threats
While not mandated to adopt any regulation, those outside of the UK and EU could benefit from the learnings.
Additionally, our team of Outseer Fraud Advisors ensures that your fraud prevention solutions remain fine-
tuned to evolving threats, providing continuous optimization and expert guidance.
Outseer stands as your trusted partner, delivering unrivaled results through a blend of proven data science and
risk engine, extensive data consortium, and adaptive resilience.
In implementing a robust defense against scams, a multi-layered approach is essential. First, limiting fraudsters’
access to customer credentials and Personally Identifiable Information (PII) is paramount.
And while many organizations may overlook actively tracking scams, it’s crucial to track and tag scam attacks
for analysis. By tracking scams, businesses can analyze data and refine their mitigation strategies accordingly.
This enables a more proactive stance in identifying and countering fraudulent activities effectively.
Additionally, fostering collaboration and sharing fraud data among organizations is pivotal. Through data-
sharing initiatives or fraud data consortiums, financial institutions can collectively combat fraud by leveraging
shared insights. This adaptive approach ensures agility as the adoption and usage of real-time payment
systems continue to grow.
Outseer Products
Outseer FraudAction
Outseer FraudAction proactively disrupt fraudulent activities, preempting harm to financial
institutions, brands, and customers. Through continuous monitoring, we swiftly identify
and dismantle phishing sites, malware, and social media brand abuse, while also fortifying
defenses against business email compromise. Our cyber-intelligence service scours the dark
web, equipping financial institutions with actionable threat intelligence reports and data
feeds such as compromised credit cards and mule accounts for effective risk mitigation.
Outseer Technology
With Fraud Manager, financial institutions can streamline fraud management across the
customer digital journey, optimizing risk scoring and swiftly adapting to emerging threats.
3-D Secure empowers institutions to detect more Card-Not-Present fraud with fewer
interventions, thanks to predictive risk scoring and customizable challenge flows.
© 2024 RSA Security LLC or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Outseer believes the information in this document is accurate and is subject to change without notice.
rev. 04-30-24