Unit 5

Unit 5: Sampling and Probability
Sampling and probability are fundamental concepts in statistics that help in analyzing populations and
making predictions based on data. Sampling refers to the method of selecting a portion of a population
to represent the whole, while probability helps in assessing the likelihood of events.
1. Sampling
1.1 Concept of Population and Sample
 Population: A population is the entire group of individuals or items of interest in a study. For
example, all citizens of a country or all students in a school. The population includes all
members, making it comprehensive but often too large to measure directly.
 Sample: A sample is a subset of the population that represents the larger group. It’s more
practical and cost-effective to analyze a sample rather than an entire population, especially when
the population size is very large. Results from a sample are then generalized to estimate
characteristics of the population.
1.2 Probability and Non-Probability Sampling
Sampling methods are broadly categorized into probability sampling and non-probability sampling.
Probability Sampling
In probability sampling, every member of the population has a known, non-zero chance of being
selected. It ensures that the sample is representative of the population, reducing bias and allowing
results to be generalized.
1. Simple Random Sampling: Every member of the population has an equal chance of being
selected. For example, picking names from a hat.
2. Systematic Sampling: A starting point is chosen randomly, and then every kthk^{th}kth member
is selected from the list. For example, selecting every 10th customer entering a store.
3. Stratified Sampling: The population is divided into subgroups (strata) based on characteristics
like age or income. Then, random samples are drawn from each stratum to ensure
representation of all subgroups.
4. Cluster Sampling: The population is divided into clusters, often based on geography. Entire
clusters are then randomly selected, and all members within those clusters are included in the
sample.
Non-Probability Sampling
In non-probability sampling, members of the population do not have a known or equal chance of being
selected. This method is easier and less costly but may introduce bias.
1. Convenience Sampling: Samples are selected based on convenience. For example, surveying
people in a mall because they are easy to access.
2. Judgmental (or Purposive) Sampling: The researcher selects the sample based on their
knowledge and judgment of what would best represent the population.
3. Quota Sampling: The population is divided into groups, and a fixed quota of samples is selected
from each group, often without randomization.
4. Snowball Sampling: Existing subjects recruit future subjects from among their acquaintances.
This technique is often used in social research where participants are hard to find.
2. Probability
2.1 Definition of Probability
Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. It ranges from 0 to 1, where 0
indicates an impossible event and 1 indicates a certain event. Probabilities can also be expressed as
percentages (e.g., a 0.5 probability is the same as a 50% chance).
 Formula for Probability: P(Event)=Number of Favorable OutcomesTotal Number of OutcomesP(\

text{Event}) = \frac{\text{Number of Favorable Outcomes}}{\text{Total Number of
Outcomes}}P(Event)=Total Number of OutcomesNumber of Favorable Outcomes where
P(Event)P(\text{Event})P(Event) is the probability of the event occurring.
2.2 Basic Terminology
1. Experiment: An activity with uncertain outcomes, like rolling a die.
2. Outcome: A possible result of an experiment, such as getting a 4 when a die is rolled.
3. Event: A set of outcomes from an experiment. For example, getting an even number on a die roll
(2, 4, or 6).
4. Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes. For a single die roll, the sample space is {1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6}.
2.3 Probability Theorems
Addition Theorem
The Addition Theorem of probability is used to calculate the probability that one of two (or more)
events will occur.
 For mutually exclusive events (events that cannot happen at the same time), the formula is:
P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)
where P(A or B) is the probability that either event A or event B occurs.
 For non-mutually exclusive events (events that can happen at the same time), the formula is:
P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)
where P(A and B) is the probability that both events occur.

Multiplication Theorem
The Multiplication Theorem of probability calculates the probability that two (or more) events will occur
together.
 For independent events (where the occurrence of one event does not affect the other), the
formula is:
P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B)
 For dependent events (where the occurrence of one event affects the other), the formula
becomes:
P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)
where P(B∣A) is the conditional probability of B occurring given that A has occurred.
2.4 Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already
occurred.
 Formula for Conditional Probability:
P(A∣B)=P(A and B)/P(B)
where P(A∣B)) is the probability of AAA given BBB, P(A and B) is the probability that both events A and B
occur, and P(B) is the probability of BBB.
 Example: If there is a 30% chance of rain (Event A) and a 10% chance it will rain and be windy
(Event B), the conditional probability of wind given rain is:
P(B∣A)=P(A and B)/P(A)
=0.10/0.30
=0.333
So there is a 33.3% chance of wind given that it is raining.
Summary of Key Points
Sampling
 Population: Entire group being studied.
 Sample: A subset of the population.
 Probability Sampling: Ensures each member has a known chance of selection (e.g., simple
random, stratified sampling).
 Non-Probability Sampling: Selection not random; includes convenience and judgmental

sampling.
Probability
 Probability: The likelihood of an event occurring, ranging from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain).
 Basic Terminology: Key concepts include experiment, outcome, event, and sample space.
 Addition Theorem: For calculating probabilities of events occurring together (for mutually
exclusive or non-exclusive events).
 Multiplication Theorem: For calculating probabilities of events occurring together (for

independent or dependent events).
 Conditional Probability: Probability of an event given that another event has occurred.
These concepts are foundational in statistics, enabling data analysis, prediction, and better decision-
making.

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Unit 5: Sampling and Probability

1.1 Concept of Population and Sample

1.2 Probability and Non-Probability Sampling

2.1 Definition of Probability

 Formula for Probability: P(Event)=Number of Favorable OutcomesTotal Number of OutcomesP(\

2.2 Basic Terminology

1. Experiment: An activity with uncertain outcomes, like rolling a die.

2. Outcome: A possible result of an experiment, such as getting a 4 when a die is rolled.

2.3 Probability Theorems

where P(A or B) is the probability that either event A or event B occurs.

P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)

where P(A and B) is the probability that both events occur.

P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B)

P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)

2.4 Conditional Probability

 Formula for Conditional Probability:

P(A∣B)=P(A and B)/P(B)

P(B∣A)=P(A and B)/P(A)

So there is a 33.3% chance of wind given that it is raining.

Summary of Key Points

 Population: Entire group being studied.

 Sample: A subset of the population.

 Non-Probability Sampling: Selection not random; includes convenience and judgmental

 Probability: The likelihood of an event occurring, ranging from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain).

 Multiplication Theorem: For calculating probabilities of events occurring together (for

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