Development Year

Claim amounts 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
reported (000s) 2012 17,500 5,000 2,250 750 500 525 375
2013 21,000 6,200 2,750 908 642 400 300
2014 20,200 5,500 2,445 810 945 800
2015 21,300 6,208 2,767 918 1,007
Accident Year 2016 24,000 4,000 1,200 800
2017 20,100 2,000 1,300
2018 21,200 3,000
2019 20,000
 Inflation
2020 10.00%
2021 11.00%
7 2022 9.70%
400 2023 9.50%
2024 11.50%
2025 10.50%
2026 10.20%
Table 1 From Data------>>
Development Year
Claim amounts 0 1 2 3
reported (000s) 2012 17,500 5,000 2,250 750
2013 21,000 6,200 2,750 908
2014 20,200 5,500 2,445 810
2015 21,300 6,208 2,767 918
Accident Year 2016 24,000 4,000 1,200 800
2017 20,100 2,000 1,300
2018 21,200 3,000
2019 20,000

Table 2
Development Year
Cumulative 0 1 2 3
claim amounts 2012 17,500 22,500 24,750 25,500
2013 21,000 27,200 29,950 30,858
2014 20,200 25,700 28,145 28,955
2015 21,300 27,508 30,275 31,193
Accident Year 2016 24,000 28,000 29,200 30,000
2017 20,100 22,100 23,400
2018 21,200 24,200
2019 20,000

Development Ratio--->>>> 1.2196 1.0831 1.0294

Table 3
Development Year
Cumulative 0 1 2 3
claim amounts 2012 17,500 22,500 24,750 25,500
2013 21,000 27,200 29,950 30,858
2014 20,200 25,700 28,145 28,955
2015 21,300 27,508 30,275 31,193
Accident Year 2016 24,000 28,000 29,200 30,000
2017 20,100 22,100 23,400 24,088
2018 21,200 24,200 26,211 26,981
2019 20,000 24,392 26,419 27,196

Different Formula
velopment Year
4 5 6 7
500 525 375 400
642 400 300
945 800
1,007

velopment Year
4 5 6 7
26,000 26,525 26,900 27,300
31,500 31,900 32,200
29,900 30,700
32,200

1.0266 1.0197 1.0116 1.0149 <<---- Each cell has different formula

velopment Year
4 5 6 7 Claim Reserves
26,000 26,525 26,900 27,300
31,500 31,900 32,200 32,679 479
29,900 30,700 31,055 31,516 816
32,200 32,836 33,215 33,709 1,509
30,797 31,405 31,767 32,240 2,240
24,728 25,216 25,507 25,887 2,487
27,698 28,245 28,571 28,996 4,796
27,918 28,469 28,798 29,226 9,226
Total Claims Reserves---->>>> 21,552
erent Formula
Table 1 From Data------>>
Development Year
Claim amounts 0 1 2 3
reported (000s) 2012 17,500 5,000 2,250 750
2013 21,000 6,200 2,750 908
2014 20,200 5,500 2,445 810
2015 21,300 6,208 2,767 918
Accident Year 2016 24,000 4,000 1,200 800
2017 20,100 2,000 1,300
2018 21,200 3,000
2019 20,000

Table 2
Development Year
Cumulative 0 1 2 3
claim amounts 2012 17,500 22,500 24,750 25,500
2013 21,000 27,200 29,950 30,858
2014 20,200 25,700 28,145 28,955
2015 21,300 27,508 30,275 31,193
Accident Year 2016 24,000 28,000 29,200 30,000
2017 20,100 22,100 23,400
2018 21,200 24,200
2019 20,000
Development Ratio--->>>> 1.2196 1.0831 1.0294
Table 3
Development Year
Cumulative 0 1 2 3
claim amounts 2012 17,500 22,500 24,750 25,500
2013 21,000 27,200 29,950 30,858
2014 20,200 25,700 28,145 28,955
2015 21,300 27,508 30,275 31,193
Accident Year 2016 24,000 28,000 29,200 30,000
2017 20,100 22,100 23,400 24,088
2018 21,200 24,200 26,211 26,981
2019 20,000 24,392 26,419 27,196

Table 4
Development Year
Non
Cumulative 0 1 2 3
claim amounts 2012 17,500 5,000 2,250 750
2013 21,000 6,200 2,750 908
2014 20,200 5,500 2,445 810
2015 21,300 6,208 2,767 918
Accident Year 2016 24,000 4,000 1,200 800
 Accident Year
2017 20,100 2,000 1,300 688
2018 21,200 3,000 2,011 771
2019 20,000 4,392 2,027 777

Table 5
Inflation Development Year
adjusted Non
Cumulative 0 1 2 3
claim amounts 2012 17,500 5,000 2,250 750
2013 21,000 6,200 2,750 908
2014 20,200 5,500 2,445 810
2015 21,300 6,208 2,767 918
Accident Year 2016 24,000 4,000 1,200 800
2017 20,100 2,000 1,300 757
2018 21,200 3,000 2,212 941
2019 20,000 4,831 2,474 1,041

Different Formula
Table 6
Inflation Development Year
adjusted
Cumulative 0 1 2 3
claim amounts 2012 17,500 22,500 24,750 25,500
2013 21,000 27,200 29,950 30,858
2014 20,200 25,700 28,145 28,955
2015 21,300 27,508 30,275 31,193
Accident Year 2016 24,000 28,000 29,200 30,000
2017 20,100 22,100 23,400 24,157
2018 21,200 24,200 26,412 27,353
2019 20,000 24,831 27,306 28,346
velopment Year
4 5 6 7
500 525 375 400
642 400 300
945 800
1,007

velopment Year
4 5 6 7
26,000 26,525 26,900 27300
31,500 31,900 32,200
29,900 30,700
32,200

1.0266 1.0197 1.0116 1.0149 <<---- Each cell has different formula

velopment Year
4 5 6 7
26,000 26,525 26,900 27,300
31,500 31,900 32,200 32,679
29,900 30,700 31,055 31,516
32,200 32,836 33,215 33,709
30,797 31,405 31,767 32,240
24,728 25,216 25,507 25,887
27,698 28,245 28,571 28,996
27,918 28,469 28,798 29,226

velopment Year
4 5 6 7
500 525 375 400
642 400 300 479
945 800 355 462
1,007 636 379 494
797 608 363 472
 640 488 291 379
717 547 326 425
722 551 329 428

velopment Year Claims Reserves

4 5 6 7
500 525 375 400
642 400 300 527 527
945 800 390 564 954
1,007 699 463 662 1,824
876 742 486 693 2,797
781 654 427 620 3,239
960 802 534 768 6,216
1,059 901 594 853 11,754
Total Claims Reserves---->>>> 27,311
erent Formula

velopment Year
4 5 6 7
26,000 26,525 26,900 27,300
31,500 31,900 32,200 32,727 527
29,900 30,700 31,090 31,654 954
32,200 32,899 33,362 34,024 1,824
30,876 31,619 32,105 32,797 2,797
24,938 25,592 26,019 26,639 3,239
28,313 29,114 29,648 30,416 6,216
29,406 30,307 30,901 31,754 11,754
Total Claims Reserves---->>>> 27,311
Check Problem
 Inflation 1+inflationCumulative inflation
2020 10.00% 110.00% 10.0%
2021 11.00% 111.00% 22.1%
2022 9.70% 109.70% 33.9%
2023 9.50% 109.50% 46.7%
2024 11.50% 111.50% 63.5%
2025 10.50% 110.50% 80.7%
2026 10.20% 110.20% 99.1%

1.221
Table 1 From Data------>>
Development Year
Claim amounts 0 1 2 3
reported (000s) 2012 17,500 5,000 2,250 750
2013 21,000 6,200 2,750 908
2014 20,200 5,500 2,445 810
2015 21,300 6,208 2,767 918
Accident Year 2016 24,000 4,000 1,200 800
2017 20,100 2,000 1,300
2018 21,200 3,000
2019 20,000

Table 2 Different formula

Development Year
Cumulative 0 1 2 3
claim amounts 2012 17,500 22,500 24,750 25,500
2013 21,000 27,200 29,950 30,858
2014 20,200 25,700 28,145 28,955
2015 21,300 27,508 30,275 31,193
Accident Year 2016 24,000 28,000 29,200 30,000
2017 20,100 22,100 23,400
2018 21,200 24,200
2019 20,000
Development Ratio--->>>> 1.2196 1.0831 1.0294
Development Factor 1.4613 1.1982 1.1063

Table 3
Development Year
Cumulative 0 1 2 3
claim amounts 2012 17,500 22,500 24,750 25,500
2013 21,000 27,200 29,950 30,858
2014 20,200 25,700 28,145 28,955
2015 21,300 27,508 30,275 31,193
Accident Year 2016 24,000 28,000 29,200 30,000
2017 20,100 22,100 23,400 25,887
2018 21,200 24,200 28,996 32,077
2019 20,000 29,226 35,018 38,739

Different Formula
velopment Year
4 5 6 7
500 525 375 400
642 400 300 P
945 800
1,007

velopment Year
4 5 6 7
26,000 26,525 26,900 27300
31,500 31,900 32,200
29,900 30,700
32,200

1.0266 1.0197 1.0116 1.0149 <<---- Each cell has different formula
1.0747 1.0469 1.0266 1.0149

velopment Year
4 5 6 7 Claim Reserves
26,000 26,525 26,900 27,300
31,500 31,900 32,200 32,679 479
29,900 30,700 31,516 31,985 1,285
32,200 33,709 34,605 35,120 2,920
32,240 33,750 34,648 35,163 5,163
27,819 29,123 29,897 30,342 6,942
34,472 36,087 37,047 37,598 13,398
41,631 43,582 44,741 45,406 25,406
Total Claims Reserves---->>>> 55,593
erent Formula
 Claims Paid
Development Year--->>> 0 1 2 3 4
Basic Chain Ladder 165,300 201,600 218,349 224,771 230,740
Inflation Adj BCL 165,300 202,039 219,437 226,362 233,133
Bornhuetter-Ferguson 165,300 206,434 229,734 243,209 255,762

Chart 1- Basic Chain Ladder

290,000
270,000
250,000
Claims Paid

230,000
210,000
190,000
170,000
150,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Development year

Basic Chain Ladder

 5 6 7
235,295 238,013 241,552
238,656 242,225 247,311
265,376 271,555 275,593

Chart 2- BCL and Inflation Adj BCL

250,000
240,000
230,000
220,000
210,000
Claims Paid

200,000
190,000
180,000
6 7 170,000
160,000
150,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Development year

Basic Chain Ladder Inflation Adj BCL Basic Chain Ladder

n Adj BCL

Chart 3- BCL, Inflation Adj BCL and Bornhuetetr Fe

290,000

270,000

250,000
Claims Paid

4 5 6 7 230,000

210,000

190,000
Basic Chain Ladder 170,000

150,000
1 2 3 4 5 6
Development year

Basic Chain Ladder Inflation Adj BCL Bornhuetter-F

Adj BCL and Bornhuetetr Ferguson

4 5 6 7 8
Development year

Inflation Adj BCL Bornhuetter-Ferguson