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Nestlé SA in Pet Care (World)

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62 views34 pages

Nestlé SA in Pet Care (World)

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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 34

Nestlé SA in Pet Care (World)

November 2024

© Euromonitor
© Euromonitor International
International 2024.
2024. All rights
All rights reserved.
reserved.
Contents

Introduction

State of Play

Exposure to Future Growth

Competitive Positioning

Dog and Cat Food

Key Findings

Appendix

© Euromonitor International
Introduction

© Euromonitor International
INTRODUCTION 44

Scope
Nestlé ranks second in pet care in the world
in 2023 and pet care is one of the main drivers
of Nestlé’s growth in 2023 among its entire
consumer goods portfolio. Market momentum
as well as market premiumisation through
science-based premium brands such as Purina
ProPlan and Purina ONE drive Nestlé’s pet
care growth. In 2024, Nestlé divests in baby
food but consolidates its pet food portfolio
with innovations focused on natural
ingredients and therapeutic solutions. Finally,
Nestlé Purina has strengthened its positioning
online and is well distributed across all
channels from pet specialists to retailers’
websites and marketplaces.

Disclaimer
Much of the information in this briefing is of a
statistical nature and, while every attempt has
been made to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be held
responsible for omissions or errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are calculated
from unrounded data and may not sum. Analyses
found in the briefings may not totally reflect the
Source: Pet Care 24ed companies’ opinions, reader discretion is advised.

© Euromonitor International
INTRODUCTION 55

Executive summary

Nestlé ranks second in pet Nestlé ranks second after Mars in the pet care industry globally in 2023 with 16% of industry
care in the world in 2023 global share. Mainly under its Purina portfolio of brands, Nestlé has recorded a double-digit CAGR
and pet care remains in value sales from 2020 to 2023. As a result, the pet food category showed the fastest absolute
Nestlé’s fastest growing value growth over the historic period among Nestlé’s entire consumer goods portfolio.
category
The biggest factor that has contributed to Nestlé’s sales growth from 2020 to 2023 is market
momentum. First, the global dog and cat population has increased by 8% over 2020-2023 which
Pet adoption and inflation
contributed to the demand for pet food during this period. Also, pet food manufacturers have
drive Nestlé’s growth
been impacted by price increases for ingredients such as wheat as well as energy and packaging
caused by political and environmental disruptions.

Nestlé divests in baby food Boosted by the pandemic, pet populations have increased in recent years in most countries while all
but consolidates its pet food the world’s largest pet care markets have seen a decline in the number of children from 2014 to 2023.
portfolio with innovations The pet humanisation trend is driving industry growth. While in 2024, FNB Private Equity finalised the
focused on natural ingredients acquisition of Nestlé’s prepared baby food brands in France, Nestlé’s pet food portfolio continued its
and therapeutic solutions consolidation focusing on natural and clean ingredients as well as therapeutical assortments.

Around 20% of Nestlé’s pet care sales derived from online purchases in 2023 and Nestlé shows
Nestlé Purina has a strong
strength in being present across all online channels. Home products specialists including pet
positioning online and is well
specialists are Nestlé’s first channel of distribution, with the premium brand Pro Plan as Nestlé’s
distributed across all
leading brand in the channel. In the grocery sector, the mid-price brand Friskies is leading the
channels
portfolio as demand remains more price sensitive in this sector.
© Euromonitor International
State of Play

© Euromonitor International
STATE OF PLAY 77

Nestlé is forecast to have the highest absolute growth from 2023 to 2026

Source: Pet Care 24ed

© Euromonitor International
STATE OF PLAY 88

The US is by far the largest market for Nestlé Purina in the world

Source: Pet Care 24ed


© Euromonitor International
STATE OF PLAY 99

Company overview
With 16% of the industry’s global share, Nestlé is one of the leading
players in pet care globally in 2023. Mars and Nestlé have been
competing for the top spot in pet care for many years. In 2023, Mars
continued to lead, but Nestlé had closed the gap to just USD4 million.
Dog and cat food is Nestlé’s main pet care category. Mainly under its
Purina portfolio of brands, it has recorded an impressive CAGR of 12% in
value sales from 2020 to 2023. With the pet population increasing in all
countries, due to a strong humanisation trend gaining traction in all
markets as well as ageing pet populations, the dog and cat food category
has recorded the fastest absolute value growth over the historic period
among Nestlé’s entire consumer goods portfolio.
The US is by far Nestlé’s largest pet care market in 2023, with 58% of the
company’s sales made in the country. It is also the biggest market in the
pet care industry. One factor underpinning the US’s leadership is the
country’s pet population: 20% of the global pet population is found in
the US which makes the country the second biggest dog and cat food
population in the world behind China. In addition, premiumisation has
been driving the US pet care market; with either pet food manufacturers
leaning on veterinary approval/science-forward positioning to highlight
formula quality or more recently on natural ingredients to offer fresh pet
food, 40% of dog and cat food volumes are considered premium in 2024.
Source: Pet Care 24ed

© Euromonitor International
STATE OF PLAY 10
10

Market momentum coming from both inflation and adoption growth drives Nestlé sales
Nestlé’s pet care sales have grown by a 13% CAGR over the historic period.
Compared with the 10 leading pet care players, it has recorded the highest
historic absolute growth.
The biggest factor that has contributed to Nestlé’s sales growth from 2020 to
2023 is market momentum. The global dog and cat population has increased by
8% over 2020-2023. Pet owners are also feeding their dogs and cats more and
more with bought prepared food, for example in China, which has the largest
pet population in the world, the prepared packaged food consumed by cats has
increased from 25% to 39% from 2020 to 2023.
Inflation has also been driving the value sales increase over the historic period.
In 2023, the average price per kg of dog and cat food increased by 11%. Pet
food manufacturers have been impacted by price increases for ingredients such
as wheat as well as energy and packaging, all caused by political and
environmental disruptions.
Nestlé has also lost some market share over the historic period, mainly in Asia
Pacific, the only region where the global player does not appear in the top
three. Purina entered the region later than its global rival Mars and competition
from other local players is challenging. Nestlé still has room to grow in order to
adapt its offering to local preferences and cultural differences. In China for Source: Pet Care 24ed
example, local brands include local flavours such as duck or rice into their
offerings to align with the pet humanisation trend growing in the country.
© Euromonitor International
Exposure to Future Growth

© Euromonitor International
EXPOSURE TO FUTURE GROWTH 12
12

Exposure to growth
Over the forecast period, the US is expected to be the leading
contributor to Nestlé’s sales growth. With 28% market share in dog
and cat food, Nestlé leads the market. In March 2024, the company
opened a new factory in North Carolina to respond to the growing
demand. Despite recent inflation, premiumisation remains a strong
driver of growth. In April 2024, Purina launched a Gut Microbiome
analysis home kit for pets to suggest tailored nutrition and
supplement recommendations.
Argentina is expected to be the second market contributing to
Nestlé’s forecast sales growth. Despite being the country with the
highest number of dogs per capita, this projection is mainly caused
by the inflation rate, reaching 45% in the third quarter of 2023 and
forecast to only slow slightly in the next five years. Volume sales of
dog food are expected to grow by 2% from 2023 to 2026.
Dominating the market with 40% of the cat food category, France
should also boost Nestlé’s forecast pet care sales. Premiumisation is
driving the industry. Via its Gourmet wet food range, Purina offers a
wide selection of recipes mimicking local dishes such as timbales,
fillets or in sauce flavours.
Source: Pet Care 24ed

© Euromonitor International
EXPOSURE TO FUTURE GROWTH 13
13

Rising pet humanisation: A boon for the pet care industry amidst declining birth rates
Percentage of Nestlé Sales in Baby Food and Pet Care in Nestlé’s Top 10 Pet Care Countries 2014/2023
%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2014 2023 2014 2023 2014 2023 2014 2023 2014 2023 2014 2023 2014 2023 2014 2023 2014 2023 2014 2023
USA United Kingdom France Canada Italy Mexico Germany Australia Brazil Netherlands

Baby Food Pet Care


Source: Passport Dairy 24ed and Pet Care 24ed
Pet humanisation has become a major trend shaping the pet care industry but also wider consumer households. With economic insecurities
and political and environmental concerns, birth rates are diminishing in many developed countries. Outside of Germany, all the world’s
largest pet care markets have seen declining numbers of children from 2014 to 2023. On the other hand, boosted by the pandemic, the pet
population increased in recent years in most countries. According to Euromonitor’s Lifestyles Survey, 70% of pet owners consider their
animal as part of the family. As a result, they dedicate more of their income to their animal and are looking for solutions to keep their
animal healthy and happy. Multiple FMCG companies have shown interest in the pet care segment in recent years. For example, in
November 2023, the cereal giant General Mills, via its newly created growth equity fund, grew its pet activity through the acquisition of a
holistic pet supplement company, Fera Pets, Inc.
Over the years, Nestlé has acquired a leadership position in both baby food and pet care. However, when comparing its sales from 2014 and
2023, the share of sales coming from pet care has been growing over baby food in most of Nestlé’s top countries. In 2024, FNB Private
Equity finalised the acquisition of Nestlé’s prepared baby food brands in France.
© Euromonitor International
EXPOSURE TO FUTURE GROWTH 14
14

Mars and Nestlé in fierce competition to lead global pet food market
Mars and Nestlé shared 30% of the pet care market in 2023 and both have
seen their share increase over the historic period. While in recent years
Nestlé has worked on strengthening its core brands (such as Purina ONE, Pro
Plan, Friskies, etc), Mars has invested in new brands. In 2023, Mars
completed the acquisition of the Canadian company Champion Petfoods
known for its two global premium brands - Orijen and Acana - both offering
non-therapeutic premium dog and cat food in North America and Europe.
Colgate-Palmolive, through its Hill's brand, primarily competes with Nestlé in
the premium dog and cat food segment. In 2023, Hill's held a 13% market
share, trailing just behind Nestlé, which had a 19% share. Hill’s has a strong
positioning at vet clinics with its prescription diet range. In 2024, Hill's
expanded its range with foods targeting digestive health, skin health and
relaxation. With growing awareness of gut health, the new offerings
highlight ingredients such as prebiotics to support the gut microbiome and
overall wellbeing.
Finally, Post Holdings joined the top 10 pet care company ranking in 2023,
after the acquisition of Ray Nutrish, Nature’s Recipe and other pet food
brands from The JM Smucker Co. While JM Smucker is opting for portfolio
Source: Pet Care 24ed
optimisation by keeping its most dynamic dog snacks and cat food brands,
Milk-Bone and Meow Mix, respectively, Post Holdings, mainly present in the
breakfast cereals industry, now has one foot in the growing pet food market

© Euromonitor International
Competitive Positioning

© Euromonitor International
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING 16
16

Nestlé ranks among the top 10 pet care players with the least reliance on its top three brands
When comparing the global top 10 pet care companies, Nestlé
stands out as the player with the least dependence on its top three
brands. This gives Nestlé flexibility to manage existing consumer
demand and channel distribution, but it could also lead to brand
cannibalisation, potentially resulting in some brands being
discontinued. In 2023, Beyond from Purina, which specialised in
providing clean label dog and cat food, was discontinued in France.
Customers have been redirected to Purina ONE Dual Nature, which
caters to pet owners seeking for both clean labels and products
tailored to specific pet needs.
The gap between Mars and Nestlé has remained minimal in the last
couple of years. When comparing the companies’ portfolios, Nestlé
has a relatively stronger presence in cat food, through an array of
brands including Fancy Feast/Gourmet, Friskies and Felix. Mars
enjoys greater strength in dog food with brands such as Whiskas,
Royal Canin and Sheba (among others). Both leaders own diverse
portfolios with brands present across different categories, formats
and price segments which positions them well to capture different
segments of pet owners.
Source: Pet Care 24ed

© Euromonitor International
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING 17
17

Key categories and markets

Source: Pet Care 24ed

© Euromonitor International
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING 18
18

Premiumisation and humanisation trend at the forefront of Purina growth strategy


Premiumisation has been leading pet care sector growth in recent years. Nestlé Dog and Cat Food by Price Band 2019/2023
When looking at the evolution of the price band breakdown of Nestlé’s (RSP sales, USD fixed exchange rate)
portfolio from 2019 to 2023, on the one hand, premium dog and cat food
has gained some share over economy and is now the biggest segment of 2019

-
the market for Nestlé in value terms, while on the other hand, the mid- 25% 39% 36%
priced dog and cat food share remained stable. 2023
Competition in premium dog and cat food is very intense. Small players
are entering the market and communicating on cleaner labels and 0%
21% 20% 40% 60% 80%
40% 100%
impacting leading players’ image. As a result, in the US, Fancy Feast, the Economy Mid priced Premium
leading cat food brand in the country, has been reformulated following Source: Pet Care 24ed
the impact of increasing retailer and consumer scrutiny on ingredients. In
In the
- US, through its biggest brand
August 2023, Fancy Feast also returned to Petco stores, the leading pet
Fancy Feast, Purina has launched “set
care specialist in the US. The retailer initially stopped distributing the
for delight” limited-edition
brand in 2019 and since the reformulation, has integrated the brand back
dinnerware designed for cats and
on its shelves.
their humans. The set also offers
In the UK, Nestlé’s second market globally, Nestlé's premium offering, limited-edition wet cat food recipes.
Lily's Kitchen, continued to grow as pet owners show a willingness to
The collection was created by TV
invest more in high-quality, premium dog food. It also successfully taps
personality, fashion designer and cat
into the pet humanisation trend with regular limited editions. In summer Source: lilyskitchen.co.uk/
owner Jenna Lyons.
2024, the company launched a Fish & Chips wet food can within its Pub
Lunch range.
© Euromonitor International
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING 19
19

Nestlé sustains strong market leadership with key brands spanning all price segments

Source: Pet Care 24ed

© Euromonitor International
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING 20
20

Clean ingredients and therapeutic food drive Purina innovations


The Purina ONE brand has recorded the highest growth globally in 2023 with a
22% value sales increase. The US, France and Germany remain the brand’s main
contributors to growth with double-digit value growth.
In 2024, in addition to the Purina ONE classic range, the company launched a line
of cat food produced with reduced CO2 emissions. The line is called "Purina ONE
Dual Nature" and is part of Nestlé’s broader project to reduce CO2 emissions by
50% by 2030. Purina ONE Dual Nature has been launched in multiple countries
such as Italy, France and the UK. To achieve these goals, the company has made
changes to its entire production cycle, revisiting recipes, logistics, production
processes and packaging. Purina ONE Dual Nature cat food is available in various
recipes for adult and/or sterilised cats, including chicken, turkey, beef and added
ingredients such as spirulina and cranberries, which are also used in human food
for their nutritional properties.
In addition to clean ingredients, Nestlé Purina is recording high sales growth
within its premium therapeutic brand Pro Plan Veterinary Diets. New food is
being developed using science to tackle dogs and cats’ specific health conditions.
In 2023, new OM Metabolic Response + Joint Mobility dry food was launched to
help dogs lose fat while maintaining their muscle mass. Purina also innovates in
supplements designed to support various needs, including digestion, immunity,
hydration, joint health and calmer behaviour. While available in Europe and in
North America, the pet supplements range was discontinued in the UK in 2024. Source: purina.com

© Euromonitor International
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING 21
21

Due to fierce channel competition, Purina distributes across all online retailers
According to Euromonitor E-Commerce data, one third of Nestlé’s total Nestlé E-Commerce Global Sales Distribution by Retailers 2023
online sales come from pet care in 2023. Now, when looking at Nestlé’s %
total pet care sales, around 20% of those derive from online purchases.
The e-commerce channel has created new opportunities for pet care
#1 #1 #1
companies by allowing them to promote larger pack formats, while
offering pet owners the convenience of delivery and fostering loyalty
through subscription services. It is important for pet care players to be
present across all online channels. When focusing on Purina’s online
sales in 2023, sales are well distributed among all distributors’ types. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Home products specialists including pet specialists are Nestlé’s leading
Grocery Home Products Specialist Marketplace Third-Party Delivery
channel of distribution with the premium brand Pro Plan as Nestlé’s
leading brand in the channel. In the grocery sector, the mid-priced
US Share of Purina Sales by Online Retailers 2023
brand Friskies is leading the portfolio as demand remains more price %
sensitive in this sector.
As for total market size, the US ranks first in online sales in the world.
The specialist local retailer Chewy sells almost double the Purina
products as sold by Amazon globally in 2023. Chewy dominates the e-
commerce market with sales growing on a yearly basis by double digits
since 2018. The company has developed a unique customer service
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
including a 24/7 helpline, free vet advice and personalised attention
such as handwritten Christmas cards. Nestlé Purina has great visibility Chewy Amazon Walmart Instacart petco Petsmart Others
on the website which is key given the influence of the retailer. Source: E-Commerce, Passport

© Euromonitor International
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING 22
22

Nestlé focuses on health-targeted food and solutions to tap into premiumisation


The test costs between USD99 and
USD149. For a more in-depth and
continuous follow-up, Petivity also
offers a smart litter box monitor
system to track a cat’s daily weight
and litter use habits. Source: petivity.com
Source: amazon.com (US)
In October 2024, Nestlé announced the development of an algorithm
to determine a dog’s biological age and predict its overall health
Since May 2024, Purina announced that US pet owners can now trajectory. The measure refers to how well the body functions and
purchase the range of Purina Pro Plan Veterinary Diets for both dogs has aged compared to other individuals or pets of the same
and cats directly through Amazon. Before checkout, the website will chronological age, or age based on birthdate. Factors such as diet,
require the approval of vets as the range is still only available by lifestyle habits and environmental conditions can help to improve
prescription. With this functionality, Purina is making therapeutic biological age. With this measure in mind, Nestlé can then suggest
nutrition easier to access but is still ensuring its premium scientific adaptations to a dog’s diet to lower the risk of disease and increase
positioning as prescription remains a requirement. lifespan.
Still in the US, in 2024 Nestlé has developed the Petivity initiative. As pet humanisation continues to grow as well as digital experience
Petivity offers microbiome analysis kits designed to understand key and personalised nutrition, Nestlé has invested in research and
gut health and nutrition information by the analysis of bacteria innovation in this field for both humans and pets. Multiple disruptive
present in the gut. Based on those findings, tailored brands, such as Innovative Pet Lab in the UK, have launched gut
recommendations including pet supplements are suggested for dog microbiome tests targeting pets, however, Nestlé is the first leading
and cat owners. global player to launch such an initiative.
© Euromonitor International
Dog and Cat Food

© Euromonitor International
DOG AND CAT FOOD 24
24

Latin America remains a key focus for Nestlé as pet adoption continues to grow
North America, and specifically the US, remains Nestlé Purina’s
leading market globally. Purina’s number one brand Fancy Feast/
Gourmet generates 66% of its total sales in the US. The market has
also been one of the most dynamic over the historic period and this
has been largely driven by premiumisation and increased pet
adoption.
Latin America, however, is the region that has seen the highest
growth in the last five years. Nestlé is investing in its production
capacity and increased its factory in Mexico, being one of the key
markets for the player with dog adoption growing year on year. In
addition to the increasing adoption rate, 63% of dogs are offered
packaged food in the country, which is five percentage points more
than in 2019. In Mexico, according to Euromonitor’s Voice of the
Consumer: Health and Nutrition Survey (fielded January to February
2024), 78% of households in the country own a pet. This trend has
been gaining momentum, as consumers come to realise the
benefits of having a pet at home. Nestlé brand Dog Chow, which is
the third-ranked pet food brand in the country in 2023, is targeting
new dog owners and in 2023, it launched its puppy starter kit,
containing pet food, a feeding bowl and a dog toy, aiming to foster Source: Pet Care 24ed
brand loyalty by being present in households from the first day of a
pet's arrival.
© Euromonitor International
DOG AND CAT FOOD 25
25

Cat food sales are higher than dog food in top European countries as population drives demand
While Nestlé’s revenue is well balanced between
dog and cat food sales globally, with 53% of sales
coming from cat food, in some countries such as
the UK, France and Germany, the split is less
balanced in favour of cat food. The reason for this
is that the cat population in these countries is
significantly higher than the dog population. Also,
distribution of sales tilts towards cat food as Nestlé
specialises in this category, and competition in dog
food is more intense. One factor being that
quantity bought is greater as dogs require more
food which makes pet owners more price sensitive
and less loyal when stocking up.
In Mexico and Brazil, the imbalance in sales in
favour of dog food is explained by the gap in the
dog and cat populations. In 2024, Purina
inaugurated a new factory in Brazil. With a local
market that grew by 13% and a regional market
growing by 10% from 2019 to 2024, the production
facility will be mainly focusing on producing wet
food to supply the local and regional markets. Source: Pet Care 24ed

© Euromonitor International
DOG AND CAT FOOD 26
26

Purina continues to launch initiatives to trial more sustainable actions


In 2024, Purina continues its commitment to sustainability through various
innovative initiatives. In Europe, Purina has partnered with expert organisations
such as the Seagrass Consortium to help restore 1,500 hectares - equivalent to
around 3,700 football pitches - of marine habitats by 2030. These habitats
support diverse marine life, including fish, which are integral to Purina’s supply
chain.
In the US, Nestlé Purina PetCare launched a new programme, Pet Power, aimed at
raising awareness of renewable energy among pet owners. Pet Power allows pet
parents and their pets to contribute to creating renewable energy. The initiative
features a walkway developed in collaboration with Pavegen, a leader in smart Source: Vraco-distribution.com
flooring technology, which generates renewable energy with each step. Each step
creates about 3 joules of electricity, stored in batteries that Purina will donate to
the APA Adoption Center.
In France, Purina is partnering with ASSERVA to pilot a new bulk solution called
the Vraco automatic kibble dispenser. Located in Brittany, this innovative concept
reduces packaging waste while offering convenience. The dispenser, open to the
public 24/7, provides three types of FIDO dog food: Adult with Beef, Adult with
Chicken and Senior with Poultry. Customers bring their own container, select their
preferred option and quantity, pay by credit card and collect their order. Other
players including retailers through their private label offerings have also partnered
with ASSERVA to offer similar dispensers located in their supermarket car parks. Source: Vraco-distribution.com

© Euromonitor International
Key Findings

© Euromonitor International
KEY FINDINGS 28
28

Executive summary

Nestlé ranks second in pet


Nestlé ranks second after Mars in the pet care industry globally in 2023 with 16% of industry
care in the world in 2023
global share. Mainly under its Purina portfolio of brands, Nestlé has recorded a double-digit CAGR
and pet care remains
in value sales from 2020 to 2023. As a result, the pet food category showed the fastest absolute
Nestlé’s fastest growing
value growth over the historic period among Nestlé’s entire consumer goods portfolio.
category
The biggest factor that has contributed to Nestlé’s sales growth from 2020 to 2023 is market
momentum. First, the global dog and cat population has increased by 8% over 2020-2023 which
Pet adoption and inflation
contributed to the demand for pet food during this period. Also, pet food manufacturers have
drive Nestlé’s growth
been impacted by price increases for ingredients such as wheat as well as energy and packaging
caused by political and environmental disruptions.

Nestlé divests in baby food Boosted by the pandemic, pet populations have increased in recent years in most countries while all
but consolidates its pet food the world’s largest pet care markets have seen a decline in the number of children from 2014 to 2023.
portfolio with innovations The pet humanisation trend is driving industry growth. While in 2024, FNB Private Equity finalised the
focused on natural ingredients acquisition of Nestlé’s prepared baby food brands in France, Nestlé’s pet food portfolio continued its
and therapeutic solutions consolidation focusing on natural and clean ingredients as well as therapeutical assortments.

Around 20% of Nestlé’s pet care sales derived from online purchases in 2023 and Nestlé shows
Nestlé Purina has a strong
strength in being present across all online channels. Home products specialists including pet
positioning online and is well
specialists are Nestlé’s first channel of distribution, with the premium brand Pro Plan as Nestlé’s
distributed across all
leading brand in the channel. In the grocery sector, the mid-price brand Friskies is leading the
channels
portfolio as demand remains more price sensitive in this sector.
© Euromonitor International
Appendix

© Euromonitor International
APPENDIX 30
30

Projected company sales: FAQs (1/2)


Why project company sales?
Company and brand sales projections are a useful way to compare relative
future performance. These are not forecasts in the traditional sense, it is not
realistic to forecast company activity. Instead, our projections are a measure of a
company's exposure to future growth.

How do you project company sales?


Euromonitor International's company and brand sales projections are made with
two underlying assumptions. Firstly, that current year brand shares will not
change. Secondly, that there will be no mergers, acquisitions or divestments in
the future. Forecasting shares is notoriously difficult and therefore we assume
that a brand's share of any given category will remain constant in the future.
Trying to accurately predict future M&A activity is equally fraught with difficulty.
Every category, however, will grow at a different rate and the cumulative effect
across different brand portfolios (ie every relevant country-category
combination) means certain companies will outperform others.
This is “market momentum” and is a measure of a company playing in higher
growth countries and categories relative to its rivals.

© Euromonitor International
APPENDIX 31
31

Projected company sales: FAQs (2/2)


What is the basis for this methodology?
Based on Euromonitor International's growth decomposition analysis,
it is evident that general market momentum is the single most
important contributor to company performance, outperforming the
impact of both market share gains and M&A activity.
This learning is based on analysing all brand and company sales data
in every category and company in Passport. (Clearly the same does
not apply in any circumstance where a given company has made a
major acquisition or divestment).
For the largest companies, market momentum shows even greater
significance and so exposure to growth offers a sound basis for
projecting relative future performance.

Note: Growth Decomposition and Projected Sales are based on the


sum of all activity in researched countries only, and therefore do not
take into account the effect of non-researched (modelled) markets.
For this reason, there will be slight differences compared with full
global data found elsewhere in this report.

© Euromonitor International
NESTLÉ SA IN PET CARE (WORLD)

For Further Insight please contact

Margaux Laine
Consultant - Food and Nutrition
margaux.laine@euromonitor.com
www.linkedin.com/in/margaux-laine

© Euromonitor International
NESTLÉ SA IN PET CARE (WORLD)

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