numerical statistical methods
numerical statistical methods
numerical statistical methods
Types of Random variables: There are two types of random variables given by
Discrete random variable:- A random variable 𝑋 which can take only a finite number of discrete values
Continuous random variable:- A random variable 𝑋 which can take any value ( i.e. an infinite number
Notation:
𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑎) ∶ Probability of the event 𝑋 assuming any value less than or equal to 𝑎
K.KIRAN KUMAR 1
𝑃(𝑎 < 𝑋 < 𝑏) ∶ Probability of the event 𝑋 assuming any value between 𝑎 and 𝑏
𝑃(𝑋 > 𝑎) ∶ Probability of the event 𝑋 assuming any value greater than 𝑎
Probability distribution function:- A formula which represents all the probability of events of values of
random variable defined on sample space is known as probability distrubution function.
Discrete Probability distribution:- Let 𝑋 be a discrete random variable with possible outcomes
that i) 𝑝(𝑥𝑖 ) ≥ 0
ii) ∑ 𝑝(𝑥𝑖 ) = 1 then the function 𝑝 is called the probability mass function of the random
variable 𝑋 and the set { 𝑝(𝑥𝑖 ) } is called the discrete probability distribution of the discrete random
variable 𝑋.
Let 𝑋 be a discrete random variable on the sample space 𝑆 then the discrete distribution function 𝐹(𝑥)
defined by 𝐹(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) = ∑𝑥𝑖 ≤𝑥 𝑝(𝑥𝑖 )
𝑥 0 1 3 4 5 6 7
2 2
𝑝(𝑥) 0 𝑘 2𝑘 2𝑘 3𝑘 𝑘 7𝑘 + 𝑘
⟹ ∑ 0 + 𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 3𝑘 + 𝑘 2 + 7𝑘 2 + 𝑘 = 1
⟹ 8𝑘 2 + 9𝑘 = 1
⟹ 8𝑘 2 + 9𝑘 − 1 = 0
⟹ 𝑘 = 0.102
K.KIRAN KUMAR 2
ii) 𝑃(𝑋 < 6) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 3) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 5)
= 0 + 𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 3𝑘
= 8𝑘
= 8(0.102) = 0.816
= 1 − 0.816 = 0.184
= 𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 2𝑘
= 5𝑘
= 5(0.102) = 0.510
Problem: Let 𝑋 denote the heads in a single toss of four fair coins. Determine 𝑃(𝑋 < 2) , 𝑃(1 < 𝑋 ≤ 3)
4
Solution: We know that, when a coin is tossed 4 times, 𝑆 contains 2 = 16 elements.
1 4 5
= + =
16 16 16
6 4 10 5
= + = =
16 16 16 8
Expectation:- Let 𝑋 be a random variable assumes the values 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ 𝑥𝑛 with the respective
as 𝐸(𝑋) = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖 𝑥𝑖
Note:- 1. 𝐸(𝑋 𝑟 ) = ∑𝑛 𝑟
𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖 𝑥𝑖
2. 𝐸[𝑔(𝑥)] = ∑𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖 𝑔(𝑥𝑖 )
K.KIRAN KUMAR 3
Mean:- The mean value 𝜇 of the discrete distribution function is given by 𝜇 = ∑ 𝑝𝑖 𝑥𝑖 = 𝐸(𝑋).
Standard deviation:- The standard deviation is the positive root of the variance and is denoted by 𝜎.
Problem: Two dice are thrown. Let 𝑋 assign to each point (𝑎, 𝑏) in 𝑆 is the maximum of its numbers.
Find the probability distribution. Also, find the mean and variance of the distribution.
Solution: We know that when two dice are thrown, 𝑆 contains 36 elements given by
Let 𝑋 be the random variable defined on 𝑆 by 𝑋(𝑎, 𝑏) = 𝑚𝑎𝑥{𝑎, 𝑏} for each (𝑎, 𝑏) ∈ 𝑆.
1
𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = Probability of getting a maximum number 1 = 𝑃{(1,1)} =
36
3
𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = Probability of getting a maximum number 2 = 𝑃{(1,2), (2,1), (2,2)} =
36
5
= 𝑃{(1,3), (2,3), (3,3), (3,1), (3,2)} =
36
7
= 𝑃{(1,4), (2,4), (3,4), (4,4), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3)} =
36
K.KIRAN KUMAR 4
9
= 𝑃{(1,5), (2,5), (3,5), (4,5), (5,5), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4)} =
36
11
= 𝑃{(1,6), (2,6), (3,6), (4,6), (5,6), (6,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5)} =
36
𝑋=𝑟 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 3 5 7 9 11
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟)
36 36 36 36 36 36
1 3 5 7 9 11
Mean, 𝜇 = ∑ 𝑝𝑖 𝑥𝑖 = 1 (36) + 2 (36) + 3 (36) + 4 (36) + 5 (36) + 6 (36)
1 6 15 28 45 66 161
= + + + + + = = 4.4722
36 36 36 36 36 36 36
1 22
3 2
5 2
7 2
9 2
11 161 2
=1 ( )+2 ( )+3 ( )+4 ( )+5 ( )+6 ( )−( )
36 36 36 36 36 36 36
1 3 5 7 9 11 161 2
= 1 ( ) + 4 ( ) + 9 ( ) + 16 ( ) + 25 ( ) + 36 ( ) − ( )
36 36 36 36 36 36 36
791 161 2
= −( ) = 1.9715
36 36
Problem: Two dice are thrown. Let 𝑋 assign to each point (𝑎, 𝑏) in 𝑆 is the minimum of its numbers.
Find the probability distribution. Also, find the mean and variance of the distribution
𝑥 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 2 2
𝑝(𝑥) 0 𝑘 2𝑘 2𝑘 3𝑘 𝑘 2𝑘 7𝑘 + 𝑘
K.KIRAN KUMAR 5
Solution: Given 𝑋 is a random variable with the probability function.
⟹ ∑ 0 + 𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 3𝑘 + 𝑘 2 + 2𝑘 2 + 7𝑘 2 + 𝑘 = 1
⟹ 10𝑘 2 + 9𝑘 = 1
⟹ 10𝑘 2 + 9𝑘 − 1 = 0
⟹ (10𝑘 − 1)(𝑘 + 1) = 0
1
⟹𝑘=
10
= 0 + 𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 3𝑘 + 𝑘 2
= 𝑘 2 + 8𝑘
1 2 1
= ( ) + 8 ( ) = 0.01 + 8(0.1) = 0.81
10 10
= 1 − 0.81 = 0.19
= 𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 3𝑘
= 8𝑘
= 8(0.1) = 0.8
iii) Mean, 𝜇 = ∑ 𝑝𝑖 𝑥𝑖 = 0(0) + 1(𝑘) + 2(2𝑘) + 3(2𝑘) + 4(3𝑘) + 5(𝑘 2 ) + 6(2𝑘 2 ) + 7(7𝑘 2 + 𝑘)
= 66𝑘 2 + 30𝑘
1 2 1 66 30 366
= 66 ( ) + 30 ( ) = + = = 3.66
10 10 100 10 100
K.KIRAN KUMAR 6
= 440𝑘 2 + 124𝑘 − 𝜇 2
1 1 366 2
= 440 ( ) + 124 ( ) − ( ) = 3.4044
100 10 100
𝑥 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
𝑝(𝑥) 𝑘 3𝑘 5𝑘 7𝑘 9𝑘 11𝑘 13𝑘
ii) What will be the minimum value of 𝑘 such that 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑘) > 3
⟹ ∑ 𝑘 + 3𝑘 + 5𝑘 + 7𝑘 + 9𝑘 + 11𝑘 + 13𝑘 = 1
⟹ 49𝑘 = 1
1
⟹𝑘=
49
= 𝑘 + 3𝑘 + 5𝑘 + 7𝑘
16
= 16𝑘 =
49
= 11𝑘 + 13𝑘
24
= 24𝑘 =
49
K.KIRAN KUMAR 7
𝑃(3 < 𝑋 ≤ 6) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 5) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 6)
= 9𝑘 + 11𝑘 + 13𝑘
33
= 33𝑘 =
49
203
= 203𝑘 = = 4.1429
49
= 973𝑘 − 𝜇 2
1 203 2 6468
= 973 ( ) − ( ) = = 2.6939
49 49 2401
9
ii) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 2) = 𝑘 + 3𝑘 + 5𝑘 = 9𝑘 = 49 > 3
1 1
Symbolically, it can be expressed as 𝑃 (𝑥 − 2 𝑑𝑥 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑥 + 2 𝑑𝑥) = 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥. Then 𝑓(𝑥) is called the
probability density function and the the continuous curve 𝑓(𝑥) is called the probability curve.
Properties: 1. 𝑓(𝑥) ≥ 0 ∀𝑥 ∈ 𝑅
∞
2. ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = 1.
Let 𝑋 be a continuous random variable then the cumulative distribution function 𝐹(𝑥)
K.KIRAN KUMAR 8
𝑥
defined by 𝐹(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥) = ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
𝑏
2. 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏) = ∫𝑎 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
Let 𝑓(𝑥) be the probability density function of the random variable 𝑋. Then
∞
Expectation:- 𝐸(𝑋) = ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
∞
Mean:- 𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋) = ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥.
Standard deviation:- The standard deviation is the positive root of the variance and is denoted by 𝜎.
Median:- Median, 𝑀 is the point which divides the entire distribution into two equal parts.
𝑀 ∞ 1
i.e. ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = ∫𝑀 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = 2
Problem: If a random variable has the probability density function 𝑓(𝑥) as which
3
a) Probability that a variate takes a value between 1 and 3 is 𝑃(1 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 3) = ∫1 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
3 3
−2𝑥
𝑒 −2𝑥
= ∫ 2𝑒 𝑑𝑥 = 2 [ ] = −(𝑒 −6 − 𝑒 −2 ) = 0.1329
−2 1
1
∞
b) Probability that a variate takes a value greater than 0.5 is 𝑃(𝑋 > 0.5) = ∫0.5 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
∞ ∞
−2𝑥
𝑒 −2𝑥
= ∫ 2𝑒 𝑑𝑥 = 2 [ ] = −(0 − 𝑒 −1 ) = 𝑒 −1 = 0.3679
−2 0.5
0.5
K.KIRAN KUMAR 9
0, for 𝑥 < 2
1
Problem: Is the function defined by 𝑓(𝑥) = {18 (2𝑥 + 3), 2 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 4 a probability density function?
0, for 𝑥 > 4
Find the probability that a variate having 𝑓(𝑥) as density function will fall in the interval [2,3].
0, for 𝑥 < 2
1
Solution: Given 𝑓(𝑥) = {18 (2𝑥 + 3), 2 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 4
0, for 𝑥 > 4
∞ 4 1
Consider ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = ∫2 (2𝑥 + 3) 𝑑𝑥
18
4
1
= ∫(2𝑥 + 3) 𝑑𝑥
18
2
4
1 𝑥2 1
= [2 + 3𝑥] = (28 − 10) = 1
18 2 2
18
3
1
=∫ (2𝑥 + 3) 𝑑𝑥
18
2
3
1 𝑥2 1 4
= [2 + 3𝑥] = (18 − 10) =
18 2 2
18 9
Problem: For the continuous random variable 𝑋 has the probability density function 𝑓(𝑥) given by
⟹ ∫ 𝑐𝑥(2 − 𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = 1
0
K.KIRAN KUMAR 10
2
⟹ 𝑐 ∫(2𝑥 − 𝑥 2 ) 𝑑𝑥 = 1
0
2
𝑥2 𝑥3
⟹ 𝑐 [2 − ] = 1
2 3 0
8 4𝑐 3
⟹ 𝑐 (4 − ) = 1 ⟹ =1⟹𝑐=
3 3 4
∞
Mean of 𝑋 is 𝜇 = ∫−∞ 𝑥𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
= ∫ 𝑥 ⋅ 𝑐𝑥(2 − 𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
0
2
3
= ∫ 𝑥 2 ⋅ (2 − 𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
4
0
2
3
= ∫(2𝑥 2 − 𝑥 3 ) 𝑑𝑥
4
0
2
3 𝑥3 𝑥4 3 16 16 3 16
= [2 − ] = ( − ) = ( ) = 1
4 3 4 0 4 3 4 4 12
∞
Variance of 𝑋 is 𝜎 2 = ∫−∞ 𝑥 2 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 − 𝜇 2
= ∫ 𝑥 2 ⋅ 𝑐𝑥(2 − 𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 − 𝜇 2
0
2
3
= ∫ 𝑥 3 ⋅ (2 − 𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 − 12
4
0
2
3
= ∫(2𝑥 3 − 𝑥 4 ) 𝑑𝑥 − 1
4
0
2
3 𝑥4 𝑥5 3 32 32 3 32 6 1
= [2 − ] − 1 = ( − ) − 1 = ( ) − 1 = − 1 = = 0.2
4 4 5 0 4 4 5 4 20 5 5
K.KIRAN KUMAR 11
Problem: For the continuous random variable 𝑋 has the probability density function 𝑓(𝑥) given by
1
𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑥 , for 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝜋
𝑓(𝑥) = {2 . Find mean, variance, mode and median of 𝑋.
0, otherwise
1
𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑥 , for 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝜋
Solution: Given 𝑓(𝑥) is the probability density function given by 𝑓(𝑥) = {2
0, otherwise
∞
a) Mean of 𝑋 is 𝜇 = ∫−∞ 𝑥𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
𝜋
1
= ∫ 𝑥 ( 𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑥) 𝑑𝑥
2
0
𝜋
1
= ∫ 𝑥 𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑥 𝑑𝑥
2
0
1 1 𝜋
= [𝑥(− 𝑐𝑜𝑠 𝑥) − 1 ⋅ (− 𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑥)]𝜋0 = (𝜋 − 0) =
2 2 2
∞
b) Variance of 𝑋 is 𝜎 2 = ∫−∞ 𝑥 2 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 − 𝜇 2
𝜋
1
= ∫ 𝑥 2 ( 𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 − 𝜇 2
2
0
𝜋
1
= ∫ 𝑥 2 𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 − 𝜇 2
2
0
1 2 𝜋 2
= [𝑥 (− 𝑐𝑜𝑠 𝑥) − (2𝑥) ⋅ (− 𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑥) + 2(𝑐𝑜𝑠 𝑥)]𝜋0 − ( )
2 2
1 2 𝜋2 𝜋2 𝜋2 𝜋2
= (𝜋 − 2 + 2) − = − =
2 4 2 4 2
𝑀 𝜋 1
i.e. ∫0 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = ∫𝑀 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = 2
𝑀 1
Consider ∫0 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑑𝑥 = 2
𝑀
1 1
⟹ ∫ 𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 =
2 2
0
K.KIRAN KUMAR 12
𝑀
⟹ ∫ 𝑠𝑖𝑛 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 1
0
⟹ [− 𝑐𝑜𝑠 𝑥]𝑀
0 =1
𝜋
⟹ 1 + 𝑐𝑜𝑠 𝑀 = 1 ⟹ 𝑐𝑜𝑠 𝑀 = 0 ⟹ 𝑀 =
2
𝜋
∴𝑥= is the mode of the distribution.
2
Problem: For the continuous random variable 𝑋 has the probability density function 𝑓(𝑥) given by
Binomial Distribution:- A random variable 𝑋 has a binomial distribution if it assumes only non-negative
𝑛
( ) 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟 for 𝑟 = 0,1,2, ⋯ ⋯ , 𝑛
values and its probability distribution is given by 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟) = 𝑝(𝑟) = { 𝑟
0, otherwise
Variance:- 𝜎 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
Problem: Out of 800 families with 5 children each, how many would you expect to have,
K.KIRAN KUMAR 13
a) 3 Boys b) 5 Girls c) either 2 or 3 boys.
1
𝑛 = 5, 𝑝 = 𝑞 = 2
Let 𝑝(𝑟) denotes the probability that the family has 𝑟 boys out of 5 children.
5
a) Probability of one family contains 3 boys, 𝑝(3) = ( ) 𝑝3 𝑞 5−3
3
1 3 1 2 5
= 10 ( ) ( ) = = 0.3125
2 2 16
5
b) Probability of one family contains 5 girls, 𝑝(0) = ( ) 𝑝0 𝑞 5−0
0
1 0 1 5 1
=( ) ( ) =
2 2 32
5 5
c) Probability of one family contains either 2 or 3 boys, 𝑝(2) + 𝑝(3) = ( ) 𝑝2 𝑞 5−2 + ( ) 𝑝3 𝑞 5−3
2 3
1 2 1 3 1 3 1 2
= 10 ( ) ( ) + 10 ( ) ( )
2 2 2 2
5 5 10 5
= + = =
16 16 16 8
5
Out of 800 families, 800 ⋅ 𝑝(3) = 800 ⋅ 16 = 250 families
1
800 ⋅ 𝑝(0) = 800 ⋅ = 25 families
32
5
800 ⋅ [𝑝(2) + 𝑝(3)] = 800 ⋅ 8 = 500 families.
Problem: In binomial distribution, 5 independent trials probability of 1 and 2 successes are 0.4096 and
Solution: Here 𝑛 = 5.
5
Probability of one success, 𝑝(1) = ( ) 𝑝1 𝑞 5−1 = 0.4096
1
⟹ 5𝑝𝑞 4 = 0.4096
5
Probability of two successes, 𝑝(2) = ( ) 𝑝2 𝑞 5−2 = 0.2048
2
⟹ 10𝑝2 𝑞 3 = 0.2048
K.KIRAN KUMAR 14
10𝑝2 𝑞 3 0.2048
Now, =
5𝑝𝑞 4 0.4096
2𝑝 1
⟹ =
𝑞 2
⟹ 4𝑝 = 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝
⟹ 5𝑝 = 1
1 4
⟹ 𝑝 = 5 and 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 5.
Problem: Two dice are thrown 5 times. If getting a doublet is a success, find the probability that getting
the success at least once.
Solution: Here 𝑛 = 5.
6 1
When two dice are thrown, the probability of getting a doublet is a success, 𝑝 = 36 = 6.
1 5
Then, 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 1 − 6 = 6
5
= 1 − ( ) 𝑝0 𝑞 5−0
0
5 5
= 1 − 𝑞 5 = 1 − ( ) = 0.5981
6
4
Problem: The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are 4 and 3. Find 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 2)
4
Given np = 4, 𝑛𝑝𝑞 =
3
4
𝑛𝑝𝑞 3
Consider =
𝑛𝑝 4
1 1 2
⟹𝑞=3 and 𝑝 =1−𝑞 =1− =
3 3
5 5
= 1 − ( ) 𝑝 0 𝑞 5 − ( ) 𝑝1 𝑞 4
0 1
1 5 2 1 4
= 1 − ( ) − 5 ( ) ( ) = 0.9547
3 3 3
K.KIRAN KUMAR 15
Problem: 20% of items produced from a factory are defective. Find the probability that in a sample of 5
chosen at random i) None is defective ii) One is defective iii) 𝑃(1 < 𝑋 < 4)
Solution: Here 𝑛 = 5.
20 1 1 4
Probability of defective items, 𝑝 = 100 = 5 Also, 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 1 − 5 = 5
i) None is defective:
5
Probability of 0 items are defective in a sample of 5 is 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = ( ) 𝑝0 𝑞 5−0
0
4 5
= ( ) = 0.3277
5
5
5 5
= 1 − 𝑞 = 1 − ( ) = 0.5981
6
Problem: 6 dice are thrown 243 times. How many times do you expect at least 2 dice to show a 5 or 6?
Solution: Here 𝑛 = 6.
2 1 1 2
Probability of getting 5 or 6 when one die is thrown, 𝑝 = 6 = 3 Also, 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 1 − 3 = 3
Let 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟) denotes the probability to show 5 or 6 when 𝑟 dice are thrown.
6 6
= 1 − ( ) 𝑝 0 𝑞 6 − ( ) 𝑝1 𝑞 5
0 1
2 6 1 2 5
= 1 − ( ) −6( )( )
3 3 3
64 192 473
= 1 − 729 − 729 = 729
473 473
∴ Expected number of dice = 243x 729 = = 157.3 ≅ 158.
3
1
Problem: If the probability of success is , how many trials are necessary in order that the probability of
20
1
at least one success is just greater than ?
2
1
Solution: Given the probability of success is, 𝑝 = 20 = 0.05
⟹ 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 = 1 − 0.05 = 0.95
K.KIRAN KUMAR 16
1 1
The probability of at least one success is just greater than denoted by 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) > 2
2
1
⟹ 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) >
2
𝑛 1
⟹ 1 − ( ) 𝑝0 𝑞 𝑛 >
0 2
1
⟹ 1 − (0.95)𝑛 >
2
⟹ 𝑛 = 14
Problem: The mean and variance of a binomial variable X are 16 and 8. Find 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) and 𝑃(𝑋 > 2).
Answer: 1 and 1
1
Problem: The probability that a pen manufactured company will be is 10. If 12 such pens are
manufactured, find the probability that i) Exactly two will be defective
Poisson Distribution:-
It is suitable for rare events for which the probability of occurrence 𝑝 is very small and the number of trials
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑟
for 𝑟 = 0,1,2, ⋯ ⋯ , 𝑛
𝑟!
values and its probability distribution is given by 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟) = 𝑝(𝑟) = {
0, otherwise
Variance:- 𝜎 2 = 𝜆
Standard deviation:- 𝜎 = √𝜆
K.KIRAN KUMAR 17
Problem: If the probability that an individual suffers a bad reaction from a certain injection is 0.001.
Solution: The probability that an individual suffers a bad reaction from a certain injection is, 𝑝 = 0.001.
Here 𝑛 = 2000
𝑒 −2 23
a) Probability of exactly 3 suffer a bad reaction, 𝑝(3) = 3!
8 ⋅ 𝑒 −2 4
= = 2 = 0.1804
6 3𝑒
𝑒 −2 20 𝑒 −2 21 𝑒 −2 22
=1− − −
0! 1! 2!
1 2 2 5
=1− 2
− 2 − 2 = 1 − 2 = 0.3233
𝑒 𝑒 𝑒 𝑒
𝑒 −2 20
c) Probability of none suffer a bad reaction, 𝑝(0) = 0!
1
= = 0.1353
𝑒2
d) Probability of more than 1 individuals suffer a bad reaction, 𝑃(𝑋 > 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) − 𝑃(𝑋 = 1)
𝑒 −2 20 𝑒 −2 21
=1− −
0! 1!
1 2 3
=1− − = 1 − = 0.5940
𝑒2 𝑒2 𝑒2
3
Problem: If a Poisson distribution is such that P( X 1) P( X 3) .
2
K.KIRAN KUMAR 18
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆1 𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆3
⟹ 3⋅ = 2⋅
1! 3!
𝜆2
⟹3=
3
⟹ 𝜆2 = 9
⟹ 𝜆 = 3 (∵ 𝜆 > 0)
a) 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 1) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0)
𝑒 −3 30
=1−
0!
1
=1− = 0.9502
𝑒3
𝑒 −3 30 𝑒 −3 31 𝑒 −3 32 𝑒 −3 33
= + + +
0! 1! 2! 3!
1 3 9 9 26
= + + + = = 1.2945
𝑒 3 𝑒 3 2𝑒 3 2𝑒 3 𝑒 3
𝑒 −3 32 𝑒 −3 33 𝑒 −3 34 𝑒 −3 35
= + + +
2! 3! 4! 5!
9 9 27 81 576
= 3
+ 3+ 3+ 3
= = 0.7169
2𝑒 2𝑒 8𝑒 40𝑒 40𝑒 3
1
Problem: If 𝑋 is a Poisson variate is such that 3 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) = 2 𝑃(𝑋 = 2) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 0).
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆4 1 𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆2 𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆0
⟹ 3⋅ = ⋅ +
4! 2 2! 0!
𝜆4 𝜆2
⟹ = +1
8 4
⟹ 𝜆4 − 2𝜆2 − 8 = 0
⟹ (𝜆2 − 4)(𝜆2 + 2) = 0
K.KIRAN KUMAR 19
⟹ 𝜆 = 2 (∵ 𝜆 > 0)
𝑒 −2 20 𝑒 −2 21 𝑒 −2 22
= + +
0! 1! 2!
1 2 2 5
= 2
+ 2 + 2 = 2 = 0.6767
𝑒 𝑒 2𝑒 𝑒
Problem: A rent car firm has two cars which it hires from day to day. The number of demands for a car on
each day is distributed as a Poisson variate with mean 1.5. Calculate the proportion of days on which
a) neither car is used b) Some demand is refused.
Solution: Let X denote the number of cars which are hired out per day.
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆0
a) Probability of neither car is used, 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 0!
𝑒 −1.5 (1.5)0 1
= = 1.5 = 0.2231
0! 𝑒
b) Probability of some demand is refused is the probability of demand is more than 2 cars per day,
7.25
=1− = 0.1912
2𝑒 1.5
Problem: Average number of accidents on any day on a national highway is 1.6 Determine the probability
that the number of accidents are a) at least one b) at most one.
Solution: Given Average number of accidents on any day on a national highway is 𝜆 = 1.6
K.KIRAN KUMAR 20
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆0 𝑒 −1.6 (1.6)0 1
=1− = 1− = 1 − 1.6 = 0.7981
0! 0! 𝑒
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆0 𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆1
= +
0! 1!
Problem: 2% of the items of a factory are defective. The items are packed in boxes. What is the
probability that there will be a) 2 defective items b) at least 3 defective items.
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆2
a) P(2 defective items) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = 2!
𝑒 −2 (2)2 2
= = 2 = 0.2707
2! 𝑒
Problem: A person receives an average of 4 telephone calls a day. Assuming Poisson distribution, what is
the probability that on a given day he will receive
a) no telephone call b) exactly only call c) at least two telephone calls.
K.KIRAN KUMAR 21
Normal Distribution:-
A random variable X is said to have a nomal distribution, if its probabilility density function is given by
1 1 𝑥−𝜇 2
𝑒 −2( )
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝜎 ; −∞ < 𝑥 < ∞ , −∞ < 𝜇 < ∞ , 𝜎 > 0
𝜎 √2𝜋
𝑥−𝜇
In normal distribution, 𝑧 = 𝜎
𝑥−𝜇 26−30
a) When 𝑋 = 26, 𝑧 = = = −0.8
𝜎 5
𝑥−𝜇 40−30
When 𝑋 = 40, 𝑧 = = =2
𝜎 5
= 𝐴(−0.8) + 𝐴(2)
= 𝐴(0.8) + 𝐴(2)
∴ P( 𝑋 ≥ 45) = P(z ≥ 3)
= 0.5 − 𝐴(3)
= 0.5 − 0.4987
= 0.0013
Problem: If the weights of 300 students are normally distributed with mean 68 kgs and standard deviation
3 kgs, how many students have weight
a) greater than 72 kgs b) less than or equal to 64 kgs c) between 65 and 71 kgs.
Solution: Given, 𝜇 = 68, 𝜎 = 3.
𝑥−𝜇
In normal distribution, 𝑧 = 𝜎
K.KIRAN KUMAR 22
𝑥−𝜇 72−68
a) When 𝑋 = 72, 𝑧 = = = 1.33
𝜎 3
= 0.5 − 𝐴(1.33)
= 0.5 − 0.4082
= 0.0918
Number of students have weight greater than 72 kgs are 0.0918x300 = 27.54 ≅ 28
𝑥−𝜇 64−68
b) When 𝑋 = 64, 𝑧 = = = −1.33
𝜎 3
= 0.5 − 𝐴(−1.33)
= 0.5 − 𝐴(1.33)
= 0.5 − 0.4082
= 0.0918
Number of students have weight less than or equal to 64 kgs are 0.0918 x 300 = 27.54 ≅ 28
𝑥−𝜇 65−68
c) When 𝑋 = 65, 𝑧 = = = −1
𝜎 3
𝑥−𝜇 71−68
When 𝑋 = 71, 𝑧 = = =1
𝜎 3
= 𝐴(−1) + 𝐴(1)
= 𝐴(1) + 𝐴(1)
Number of students have weight between 65 and 71 kgs are 0.6826 x 300 = 204.78 ≅ 205
K.KIRAN KUMAR 23
Problem: In a normal distribution, 7% of the items are under 35 and 89% are under 63. Determine the
mean and variance of the distribution.
Solution: Given, P(𝑋 < 35) = 0.07 , 𝑃(𝑋 < 63) = 0.89.
Let 𝜇 and 𝜎 be the mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution.
7% of the items are under 35 means the area to the left of the ordinate 𝑥 = 35 as shown in the figure
given below.
𝑥−𝜇 35−𝜇
When 𝑥 = 35, let 𝑧1 = =
𝜎 𝜎
∴ P(0≤z≤z1 ) = 0.5 − 0.07 = 0.43
⟹ 𝑧1 is − ve and 𝑧1 = −1.48
35 − 𝜇
∴ −1.48 = ⟹ 𝜇 − 1.48 𝜎 = 35 ⟶ 1
𝜎
𝑥−𝜇 63−𝜇
Similarly, when 𝑥 = 63, let 𝑧2 = =
𝜎 𝜎
⟹ 𝑧2 is + ve and 𝑧2 = 1.23
63 − 𝜇
∴ 1.23 = ⟹ 𝜇 + 1.23 𝜎 = 63 ⟶ 2
𝜎
K.KIRAN KUMAR 24
Problem: In a normal distribution, 31% of the items are under 45 and 8% are over 64. Determine the
mean and variance of the distribution.
Solution: Given, P(𝑋 < 45) = 0.31 , 𝑃(𝑋 > 64) = 0.08.
⟹ 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 64) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 > 64) = 0.92
Let 𝜇 and 𝜎 be the mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution.
45−𝜇 64−𝜇
∴ −0.5 = ⟹ 𝜇 − 0.5 𝜎 = 45 ⟶ 1 ∴ 1.41 = ⟹ 𝜇 + 1.41 𝜎 = 64 ⟶ 2
𝜎 𝜎
K.KIRAN KUMAR 25