Monkeypox_Prediction_using_Machine_Learning
Monkeypox_Prediction_using_Machine_Learning
Abstract— The monkeypox virus is gradually reemerging as confirmed detecting monkeypox cases [1]. There are
COVID-19 viral infections decline globally. The recent currently 75 nations outside of Africa where there
outbreak in the early 2022 had grown fear and concern in are verified occurrences of monkeypox, making it a
people, making them believe that it would spread like
COVID-19. Public health organizations struggled to contain
significant global health concern. The Zoonotic
the present outbreak as healthcare professionals from all over Orthopox virus is responsible for the monkeypox
the world tried to become familiar with the many clinical signs infection. It belongs to the 'Poxviridae' type family
and treatment of this infection. Early identification is, and has strong ties to both cowpox and smallpox.
therefore, a crucial step to stop them from spreading broadly Although rodents and monkeys are still the main
throughout society. AI-based detection may be able to locate transmitters, cultural infection is still rather
them at an early stage. Such detection and prediction prevalent. In specific parts of Africa, which houses
techniques have brought about optimistic outcomes. It also
implies that the proposed approach is appropriate for mass
the majority proportion of tropical rainforests, a
screening by health practitioners. In image processing-based disease like monkeypox often affects a huge number
diagnostics, such as detection of cancel, identification of of individuals. The transmission is primarily caused
tumor cell, and COVID-19 patient detection, machine learning when the individual comes into a close contact (be it
has lately demonstrated great promise. Therefore, as physical or airborne through mucus, drops from
monkeypox spreads to human skin, a similar technique might respiratory tract) of any other animal, object or
be used to detect it. To help with the condition's subsequent human counterpart which is said to infected in the
diagnosis, a picture can be obtained and a dataset containing
similar images of the infection can be utilized to develop a
first place.
near-exact prediction model. In this review, we discuss the
clinical diagnosis, management, and improvement of the
classification accuracy of monkeypox images for development
of prediction models using ML. We also discuss the historical
and contemporary outbreaks of the monkeypox virus. This
study is being conducted in light of the ongoing epidemics in
various parts of the world.
INTRODUCTION
I.
The emergence of the monkeypox virus as a disease Fig. 1: Monkeypox skin lesion through multiple phases
(Reproduced from [29])
in the year 2022, which was turned up by numerous
countries, revealed a new threat to the world at a
It is evident that artificial intelligence (AI) along
time when COVID-19 had already begun to have an
with Machine learning (ML); its sub-domain, is
impact. In 1990, around Central and West Africa,
growing in popularity across a wide spectrum of
there were mere 50 cases of the monkeypox
disciplines. With the special capabilities of ML,
infection. Whereas this number had increased to as
medical professionals can receive quick, accurate,
many as 5000 cases until the year 2020. Previously,
and safe imaging solutions. These solutions have
it was believed that monkeypox mostly affected
become widely recognized as useful decision-
Africa. In 2022, even so, a large number of non-
making aids. In 2019, different segmentation
African countries in Europe as well as the US have
techniques were used by Roy et al. to identify skin
conditions such chicken pox, candidiasis, cellulitis, number of nations, with Nigeria witnessing the
and acne [3]. In 2020, a deep learning-based study greatest outbreak in 2017.
was performed using a tiny set of data consisting of
COVID-19 patients (108-infected and 86-not
infected), wherein 10 such distinct models were
examined by Ardakani et al, the accuracy of which
reached 99%, which was deemed commendable [4].
Recently, the year 2022 also witnessed a
convolutional neural network (CNN) based study,
suggested by Sanddep et al. They proposed that a
less complex CNN model can be used to diagnose
melanoma, psoriasis, chickenpox, and other skin-
related infections and that utilizing the currently
present VGGNet, around 71% of accuracy can be
achieved through picture analysis [4]. Their
suggested technique, in contrast, yields the best
outcomes by averaging an accuracy of about 78%.
The rest of this paper traces: An overview of the Fig. 2: Regional Distribution of Definite patients suffering
monkeypox outbreak in Section 2 with the medical from Monkeypox, as of July 2, 2022
diagnosis and a range of its symptoms discussed in (Reproduced from [6])
Section 3. Clinical management and treatment
methods employed till date are covered in Section 4. Since May 2022, there have been findings of fresh
Moving onto the paradigm of machine learning, the cases of monkeypox virus in nations not earlier
challenges of data collection are described in prone to the infection, with a simultaneous and
Section 5. Recent trends, past research, ML models consistent reporting from the list of endemic nations
in this domain are briefed in section 6 and 7. Section too. The CDC aka Center for Disease Control and
8 summarizes and concludes this paper. Prevention had reported as many as 5783 cases as
of July 1, 2022, which were documented in more
II.ORIGIN & OUTBREAK
than 53 countries. The spread of monkeypox
Monkeypox infection was first discovered in 1958 infections in regions worldwide is shown
while monkeys were under study in a laboratory at graphically in Figure 2. Currently, the western
the three State Serum Institutes in Denmark, hemisphere and parts of Europe are home to the
Copenhagen and South Africa [5]. It is likely that majority of monkeypox cases. Many cases of
monkeypox has been present throughout sub- monkeypox and groups of it have been documented
Saharan Africa since long before humans contracted often in both the virus-prone and non-prone
the infection from an infected creature. After countries spread across a wide variety of
smallpox was finally eradicated in 1970, it became geographical zones. World Health Organization
apparent that smallpox-like illnesses were still (WHO) conducted a study named "2022
occurring in rural areas. This resulted in the Monkeypox Outbreak: Global Trends.", according
identification of monkeypox as a separate disease. to which it has been witnessed that there was a
Monkeypox was revealed to be the source for a small (2.4%) rise in reported incidents from the
group of cases in the Midwest US in the summer of week dated 24 October 2022-20 October 2022 to
2003. In 2003, US witnessed the initial wave of the one dated 31 October 2022-6 November 2022
monkeypox, and it was traced back to the infection (week 43 to week 44). The bulk of cases (91%)
in prairie dogs which had been imported from sub- documented internationally, according to the report,
Saharan nations [6]. Since then, monkeypox has were in the Region of the Americas.
gained attention as a disease of worldwide public This paper presents a detailed analysis of the works
health concern. After 2003, there have been done in the field of Monkeypox detection using
numerous instances of monkeypox recorded in a Machine Learning, along with the spread of
Monkeypox virus, its outbreak, diagnosis and appears or even up to three days later. The rash will
clinical treatment. The paper also focuses on the initially occur on the face before spreading fast in a
availability of datasets which remain absent from centrifugal pattern across the body. It is common to
most review publications as scant resources are find lesions in the oral cavity which make it harder
available for the topic. The paper also compares the for an infected person to eat and drink, reducing
work of different authors and the novel techniques their ability to get nourishment. The skin lesions
used by them. create significant skin disruption, which raises
worries about subsequent bacterial skin infection. In
DIAGNOSIS
III. about 19% of the infected population which were
Monkeypox does not have clinical manifestation in not vaccinated too, bacterial skin infections were
the incubation period, hence, not found to be observed as a ramification of monkeypox
contagious in this duration. The manifestation and contraction [8]. Second week of infection witnesses
symptoms of monkeypox begin to appear from the the appearance of symptoms associated with
onset of the prodromal period. This has to do with gastrointestinal organs such as diarrhoea, nausea and
how optional viremia spreads from the lymphoid vomiting. These can make the infected individual
organs, which are thought to be the starting point, up severely dehydrated, and the ulcers increase their
to the third organs, such as the eyes, lungs, digestive risk of dehydration. The ocular infection is the most
systems, and so on, along with the skin. According severe complication of monkeypox among the
to some reports, an infected person is more others shown in Fig. 3. Infected eyes can develop
contagious at the prodromal period. corneal scarring and lose their vision permanently.
There are a number of potential modes through
which the monkeypox virus can spread, but they are
all thought to involve direct contact with infected
people or animals. Direct contact or exposure to
infected animals can lead to animal to human
transmission. Secreted fluids such as respiratory
excretions, saliva, or discharge from lesions on skin
or those in mucosal parts of the body are the primary
causes of the spread. Exposure to contaminated
animal faeces in endemic regions of Africa with
limited infrastructure and supplies, and consumption
of their meat can be a significant risk factor, raising
their likelihood of being exposed to monkeypox.
Fig. 3: Classification of Monkeypox Complications and Transmission from homo sapiens sapiens-to-homo
Nonspecific Symptoms sapiens sapiens is rarer than from animal-to-homo
(Reproduced from [6]) sapiens sapiens. This mode of transmission is
Fig. 3 shows the general, non-specific monkeypox airborne due droplets secreted via respiration
symptoms that appear after a person is said been processes which results from either and extended in-
exposed to the infection for almost one to two person proximity or with the lesions of the
weeks. In instances before 2022, it had been contaminated individual. It has also been discovered
observed that the rashes took up to three days to that men with an history of sexual activity with other
show up distinctively after the onset of fever and men are more likely to catch the sickness during the
lymphoid growth. In the advent of the news of fresh current monkeypox outbreak. Monkeypox may be
infections, it was observed by professionals that for transferred by intimate physical contact, although
some infected group of people, the prodromal the WHO aka World Health Organization is not yet
symptoms may be minimal or not even noted. This certain if it is to be considered under the list of
led to the inference that until the development of a sexually transmitted diseases (STD), due to lack of
rash, a portion of population might remain unaware evidence.[3].
of any visible symptomology in the least. Typically,
the fever will start to go down the day after the rash
IV. CLINICAL MANAGEMENT & TREATMENT simply available. It has been discovered when given
There have been some recommendations from the enough training data, deep-learning systems have
CDC aka Centers for Disease Control and the potential to automatically and successfully detect
Prevention stating that monkeypox virus has no lesion on skin. Because monkeypox is so
permanent treatment. The CDC approved two uncommon, there had already been gap in
medicinal drugs, ‘Tecovirimat’ and ‘Brincidofovir’ knowledge among medical experts in all the various
prescribed to be taken orally, which had proven nations, prior to the present outbreak. In their quest
effective to cure the patients of smallpox but are to solve this difficult problem, medical professional
now being utilised to treat the monkeypox virus in are inspired by the accomplishments of supervised
order to meet the urgent need. Vaccination is the machine learning in the discovery of COVID-19.
best defence against the monkeypox virus, though. The scarcity of monkeypox-affected photographs of
Vaccines have been created to tackle the skin makes it difficult to use machine learning to
monkeypox virus, such that they are readily identify the disease from patient skin scans.
available too. Even though they have received FDA DATA COLLECTION
V.
approval, United States has not notarized any use of
it until now. Referring to the statistics of smallpox It is essential to find patients in the period of the
and its treatments it was concluded that vaccines fast-spreading monkeypox illness in many countries
such as ‘vaccinia’, and drugs such as ‘tecovirimat’, with monkeypox symptoms. Many clinical experts
‘cidofovir’, could prove potential in the management believe that artificial intelligence (computer-based
of monkeypox virus [9]. In 2022, as per the WHO, intelligence) systems may handle visual information
The European Medicines Agency (EMA) granted a to lessen the importance of clinical findings with
green flag to the vaccine ‘tecovirimat’ was the events. Emergency clinics in China and Italy
originally created to treat smallpox, to be utilized in sent computer-based intelligence-based and picture-
defiance of monkeypox [3]. Since tecovirimat is not handling-based translators at the beginning of the
currently readily accessible, any usage of it needs to Coronavirus, which is what we saw, in order to
be closely supervised. A diversity of viruses can be improve emergency clinics' competency in caring
tackled using ‘cidofovir’ which implements the for Coronavirus patients [1]. However, at the time
mechanism blocking the DNA polymerase. of writing, there were no currently accessible
Additionally, there have been reports of numerous datasets on monkeypox, which prevents using
orthopoxviruses, including ectromelia, vaccinia, artificial intelligence to effectively treat, examine,
cowpox, variola, monkeypox and rabbitpox having and avoid the infection. As supported by many
explicit sensitivity to ‘tecovirimat’. Tecovirimat, has
referred to writing that recently thought of restricted
potential therapeutic benefits for treating
dataset in creating artificial intelligence-based
monkeypox. In addition to the previously mentioned
treatment options, several classes of therapy, like models during the beginning of Coronavirus
symptomatic and supportive, have been found to be illnesses, our underlying dataset contains
essential for containing the spread of the exceptionally restricted examples that won't be a
monkeypox infection [9]. It's critical to realise that problem for the underlying trial and error.
for monkeypox, there is no proven 100% effective
treatment, except from managing the symptomology
and avoiding complications. There is a need for
more research prior to any therapy is recommended
or vaccine can be developed in light of the current
outbreak of cases worldwide. Due to the virus's
resemblance to measles and chickenpox, it can be
difficult to diagnose monkeypox early in the course
of the illness. Computer-assisted abrasion structural
identification may help in the overseeing and speedy
diagnosis of monkeypox patients when confirmatory
polymerase chain reaction (PCR) procedures are not Fig. 4: Sample set of images from our referred data
chickenpox and common images to measles and Similarly, diseases as FLD, aka, Fatty Liver Disease,
monkeypox illness, their method can distinguish can be detected by using Logistic Resression, ROC,
chickenpox and common images very well. Naïve Bayes classification etc. This is evident in
Additionally, their proposed model correctly [19]. So, many authors tried a similar thing for
categorises all occurrences of chickenpox - 66 in monkeypox as well. For monkeypox, the clinical
count and typical images - 111 in count in the test tests PCR aka Polymerize Chain Reaction tests are
set, but the segregation of measles and monkey-pox required for confirmation. But PCR tests are not
infections is still flawed [11]. readily accessible. Therefore, ML would aid in
detection of monkeypox. Hence, authors in [17],
developed two algorithms namely, binary PSOBER
algorithm, and SCBER algorithm. Basically, they
started with feature selection techniques and also
used data augmentation for dataset for validation as
well as training sets. Feature Engineering include
highlighting the key components that AI pipelines
will need. The primary aspect of component design
is included determination since it determines which
details will be streamlined for execution. Each
component of the collection of n-highlights To
indicate whether anything is crucial for the most
recent arrangement, the worth might be lowered to 1
or 0 in the element selection process [20]. Examples
of deep networks are VGG, AlexNet, GoogleNet
and ResNet. Two optimization algorithms were put
forward to improve feature selection. The primary
computation, referred to as PSOBER, is based on
Al-Biruni Earth span streamlining calculations and
Fig.5 Classification using GradCAM and LIME method molecular swarm advances. For feature selection,
(Reproduced from [11]) the twofold version of this computation is used. The
next calculation, referred to as SCBER, was applied
The paper concluded that the best-performing DL to Al-Biruni Earth radius (BER) enhancement
models were distinguished through examination calculation and the SCA calculation (Sine Cosine).
utilizing approved assessment measurements, and For a better choice of the optimal layout, their
they were then joined for worked on generally proposed calculations take advantage of the
execution and the ensemble model proved to be the advantages of the two computations they apply.
most accurate (Precision- 85.44%; Recall- 85.47%; Three experiment sets were performed by them on
F1-score- 85.40%; and Accuracy- 87.13%) [11]. their two proposed algorithms. Parameters such as
accuracy, sensitivity, specificity etc. were increased
In the year 2022, Al Biruni Earth Radius after using feature selection. Accuracy showed an
Optimization algorithm was used to classify increase of 3% after using feature selection method
MonkeyPox images. Authors in [17] review the along with the algorithms used by them [17].
models used in distinct diseases like Parkinson’s
disease, Alzheimer’s disease, some diseases related Apart from the approaches discussed above, Md
to chest, kidney etc. At this time, there is no Manjurul Ahsan, Muhammad Ramiz Uddin and
validated symptomatic test for Alzheimer's disease. their co-authors used a method called transfer
The affected person’s clinical past, the reports of learning. Transfer learning is referred to as an AI
mental and laboratory tests, and an methodology wherein we create models for one task
electroencephalogram (in some cases) should all be and it is used as the basis for a model for another. It
considered before making a decision. However, is a notable deep learning strategy where pre-
authors in [18] used SVMs i.e., Support Vector arranged models are utilized as the underlying stage
Machines to make the work of EEG epochs easier. on PC vision and ordinary language taking care of
support the presentation in a scenario with limited algorithm. The PSO strategy relies on imitating the
information. There are many pre-trained models, we scavenging behaviour of rushing species, like birds,
will be discussing the two best performing ones using an augmentation tool that outsmarts the
below. method of obtaining knowledge. The BER
computation functions in even-number cycles
during the search cycle. The PSO computation
operates in cycles of odd numbers. The improved
investigation and double-dealing of the search cycle
are taken into consideration in this trade activity of
the BER and PSO. Basically, apart from PSOBER
model, a binary PSOBER model was also proposed.
The two double qualities 0 and 1 make up the whole
small inquiry space that feature selection problems
use to determine if a particular feature is
noteworthy [11]. The twofold PSOBER approach is
next put forward in this section in order to adapt to
the feature selection methodology by changing the
Fig.8: Process to train the pre-trained DL models constant qualities produced by the persistent
(Reproduced from [11]) PSOBER computation into double [0, 1].
1) VGG-16: C. SCBER Model:
VGG is for Visual Math Gathering, and it is a The then definedSCBER model is an amalgamation
typical, multi-layered, profound Convolutional of the Sine Cosine algorithm - SC and the Al Biruni
Neural Network (CNN) design. It consists of 16
or 19 convolutional layers (VGG-19) [21]. The Earth Radius Algorithm - BER. Since the SCA
foundation of pivotal article acknowledgment computation uses just one ideal solution for many
models is the VGG design. developed as a diverse layouts, it is more robust than a wide radius
sophisticated brain arrangement, The VGGNet of meta-experimental works in the past. This
also performs better than baselines on several calculation's combined speed and memory use are
tasks and datasets other than ImageNet. extremely low when compared to other calculations.
Additionally, it remains one of the most used The borders of a multi-facet brain structure are
photo acknowledgment formats at the moment.
streamlined using the SCBER enhancement
computation [11]. When used on a populace, the
2) Xception:
suggested SCBER computation discovers some
Xception is basically a convolutional neural
degree of harmony between looking into and
network aka CNN which is 71 layers deep. A
profiting from different segments of the population.
pretrained version of the network built using more
than 1,000,000 images from the ImageNet data set VIII. CONCLUSION
can be stacked. The prepared network can
Monkeypox, being a viral infection, has no specific
characterize pictures into 1000 unique item
cure to it. The viral disease may prove lethal in
classifications, including console, mouse, pencil,
some cases. They may be with or without co-
and different animals [22-28]. The network has
morbidities. We firstly assessed and reviewed the
since learned rich component portrayals for a lot of
research made in the field of virology for diagnosis
images.
of the virus. We also went through and reviewed the
B. PSOBER Model: available data-sets that can be used for monkeypox
The PSO algorithm and the BER algorithm prediction using machine learning. Not many data-
combines to form this hybrid PSOBER Model. PSO sets are available for this purpose, so the
is the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. BER implemented models yet are not that efficient due to
is the Al-Biruni Earth radius optimization lack of training. In this paper, we discussed and
reviewed some of the many techniques which can [6] Kaler J, Hussain A, Flores G, et al. (July 03, 2022)
be used for easier and earlier detection of Monkeypox: A Comprehensive Review of Transmission,
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