PANI - The Game Changer
PANI - The Game Changer
PANI - The Game Changer
BUY
Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua (Maintain)
Target Price IDR 25,075/sh (+65% ups.)
Previous TP IDR 10,800/sh
The Game Changer Current Price IDR 15,200/sh
PANI’s stock prices has achieved a significant milestone, with a +188% YTD gain and market cap
exceeding IDR 200tn, making it the largest developer on IDX. Despite the stock price having
performed well, we see a further upside potential for this stock, driven by its robust pre-sales growth,
strong earnings improvement, and high trading volume. We also expect that PANI’s land ASP will
continue to rise, fueled by upcoming PIK 2 projects such as the KATARAJA toll roads, NICE (Nusantara
International Convention Center), and more, which further enhancing the company’s pre-sales and
earnings as well. Additionally, we expect PANI to be included in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) for
Dec'24–May'25. All in all, we upgrade our TP to IDR 25,075/sh (from IDR 10,800/sh), representing a
55% premium to our FY25F RNAV.
Balance Sheet
Year end Dec (IDR bn) 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F Major Shareholders
Cash and equivalents 1,651 1,070 2,657 3,074 3,718
PT Multi Artha Pratama 89.92%
Other Current Assets 13,381 16,779 26,781 26,694 25,104
Net Fixed Assets 51 28 625 1,204 1,871 Public 10.08%
Right-of-use Assets 7 0 0 0 0
Other Noncurrent Assets 12,920 15,835 16,413 18,436 22,106
Total Assets 28,010 33,712 46,477 49,407 52,799
ST Debt 1,054 168 0 0 0 SWOT Analysis
Other Current Liabilities 13,866 8,828 12,474 15,663 18,264
LT Debt 514 517 643 650 650
Other LT Liabilities 5,065 5,110 6,998 5,929 5,659 Strength Weakness
Total Liabilities 20,500 14,623 20,115 22,241 24,572 Strong brand
Minority Interest 5,355 6,156 6,376 6,376 6,376
recognition Future projects yet
Shareholder's Equity 7,510 19,089 26,362 27,166 28,227
Total Liabilities & Eq 28,010 33,712 46,477 49,407 52,799 to be developed,
Strategic land which can be time-
Cash Flow bank position consuming and
subject to delays
Year end Dec (IDR bn) 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Net Profit 138 270 649 1,148 1,515 Unique and
Depreciation/Amortization 4 7 6 58 114 thematic
Others -6,921 -8,436 -6,356 3,276 4,191 projects
CF's from Operating -6,779 -8,159 -5,702 4,483 5,820 development in
Capex -18 16 -603 -636 -781 the area
Others 5,145 -2,862 1,310 -3,092 -3,940
CF's from Investing Opportunity Threat
5,127 -2,847 707 -3,728 -4,721
Net Change in Debt -4,203 -884 -42 7 0
Others 6,743 11,309 6,624 -344 -455 Huge Fierce competition
CF's from Financing 2,540 10,425 6,582 -337 -455 landbanks in the property
Net Cash Flow 888 -581 1,587 417 644 available which industry
Cash at BoY essential to
763 1,651 1,070 2,657 3,074
create a grand
Cash at EoY 1,651 1,070 2,657 3,074 3,718 Weakening
satellite city
Free Cashflow -6,761 -8,175 -5,098 5,119 6,601 purchasing power
Ratio Analysis
Year end Dec 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Profitability
Gross Margins 68.9 50.0 58.4 65.5 69.4
Op Margins 29.5 34.3 44.6 50.7 54.9
EBITDA Margins 30.2 34.6 44.8 52.1 57.1
Net Margins 23.9 12.5 21.5 27.1 29.1
ROAA 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.0
ROAE 3.4 2.0 2.9 4.3 5.5
Stability (x)
Current Ratio 1.0 2.0 2.4 1.9 1.6
Net Debt/Equity n.c n.c n.c n.c n.c
Efficiency (days)
Account Receivable 206 106 167 158 168
Account Payable 1,390 288 288 272 288
Inventory Days 16,365 4,457 5,145 5,032 4,095
*PANI have upgraded its FY24F pre-sales to IDR 6tn (from IDR 5.5tn)
(Current facilities/infra)
(Upcoming facilities/infra)
Soho The Bund (BKS) 36 IDR 12.2 - 17.8 L: 102 - 120 B: 510 - 840
Permata Hijau Residences (MAS) 150 IDR 6.2 - 12 L: 160 - 300 B: 183 - 374
Pasadena Walk Shop Office (MAS) 201 IDR 3.1 - 4.2 L:67.5 B: 141 - 197
Rukan Little Siam (MAS) 196 IDR 3.5 - 11.3 L:67.5 B: 168.7 - 236.3
Rukan Petak Sembilan (MAS) 443 IDR 4.5 - 7.2 L:56.3 - 120 B: 140.6 - 420
Bizpark PIK2 (MAS) 525 IDR 3.2 - 11.9 L: 120 - 360 B: 102 - 291
PET
Rukan Lau Pa Sat (PET) 232 IDR 3.3 - 4.9 L: 56.25 B: 197
BMW
Pasir Putih Residences (BMW) 697 IDR 3.3 - 22.9 L: 75 - 150 B: 108 - 346
Rukan River Safari (BMW) 240 IDR 4.8 - 11.5 L: 81 - 120 B: 236 - 390
The Golf Signature (CISN & JIS) 313 IDR 6.8 - 36.9 L: 150 - 889 B: 280 - 185
Permata Golf Residence (CISN & JIS) 2542 IDR 5.7 - 57.6 L: 120 - 1387 B: 251 - 285
KKU
SCU
Pantai Bukit Villa (SCU) 271 IDR 8.1 - 24.3 L: 200 - 700 B: 224 - 345
SHM
Sapporo Residence (SHM) 359 IDR 2.9 - 6.9 L: 45 - 156 B: 110 - 261
Rukan Marina Bay (SHM) 450 IDR 7.1 - 22.5 L: 90 - 168 B: 293 - 1280
SOHO The Riverside Boulevard (SHM) 33 IDR 8.8 - 10.1 L: 120 B: 396
KUS
Soho Miami (KUS) 60 IDR 6.6 - 13. 8 L: 150 - 258 B: 315 - 585
1) We evaluate the JII70 stocks based on Free Float (FF) to market-cap (Period 25 Nov’23 - 25 Nov’24)
No Company ADTV - IDR Bn Average market cap - IDR Bn FF FF market cap - IDR Bn No Company ADTV - IDR Bn Average market cap - IDR Bn FF FF market cap - IDR Bn
1 TPIA IJ Equity 218 639,426 26% 164,081 36 MYOR IJ Equity 20 55,865 16% 8,752
2 TLKM IJ Equity 396 328,158 48% 156,940 37 INCO IJ Equity 78 41,514 20% 8,353
3 AMMN IJ Equity 344 682,212 18% 121,657 38 TKIM IJ Equity 18 23,066 35% 8,072
4 ASII IJ Equity 328 204,203 42% 86,424 39 MAPA IJ Equity 25 25,431 31% 7,808
5 GOTO IJ Equity 273 81,516 66% 54,196 40 AVIA IJ Equity 17 31,490 24% 7,610
6 ADRO IJ Equity 187 94,791 41% 38,572 41 MEDC IJ Equity 76 32,251 23% 7,296
7 BRIS IJ Equity 100 114,597 33% 37,911 42 JPFA IJ Equity 27 16,275 43% 7,025
8 CPIN IJ Equity 36 82,263 44% 36,579 43 PWON IJ Equity 18 20,870 31% 6,529
9 UNTR IJ Equity 106 91,011 38% 34,453 44 HEAL IJ Equity 12 20,680 28% 5,867
10 MDKA IJ Equity 112 59,709 51% 30,268 45 SMRA IJ Equity 31 9,562 61% 5,802
11 KLBF IJ Equity 57 73,723 40% 29,646 46 ACES IJ Equity 40 14,106 40% 5,616
12 INDF IJ Equity 62 57,543 50% 28,724 47 PGEO IJ Equity 44 49,136 10% 5,034
13 BRPT IJ Equity 203 100,564 28% 28,456 48 SIDO IJ Equity 23 19,221 22% 4,304
14 ICBP IJ Equity 61 130,216 19% 25,349 49 ESSA IJ Equity 24 12,663 27% 3,407
15 INKP IJ Equity 50 46,413 42% 19,403 50 HRUM IJ Equity 22 17,398 19% 3,225
16 MBMA IJ Equity 40 62,022 28% 17,654 51 MIDI IJ Equity 11 14,147 22% 3,146
17 SMGR IJ Equity 80 32,337 49% 15,761 52 BTPS IJ Equity 15 9,913 30% 2,973
18 UNVR IJ Equity 51 103,313 15% 15,505 53 ERAA IJ Equity 13 6,688 44% 2,952
19 PGAS IJ Equity 66 33,820 43% 14,549 54 SCMA IJ Equity 10 10,292 24% 2,505
20 MIKA IJ Equity 35 40,606 35% 14,147 55 BSDE IJ Equity 19 22,467 11% 2,471
21 MTEL IJ Equity 21 54,037 26% 13,893 56 SRTG IJ Equity 39 23,922 10% 2,314
22 FILM IJ Equity 35 40,403 34% 13,733 57 INDY IJ Equity 15 7,545 29% 2,165
23 ISAT IJ Equity 48 83,622 16% 13,536 58 MNCN IJ Equity 24 5,054 42% 2,100
24 MAPI IJ Equity 42 27,357 49% 13,305 59 TINS IJ Equity 38 6,777 29% 1,959
25 BRMS IJ Equity 115 27,458 47% 12,965 60 DSNG IJ Equity 26 7,577 24% 1,805
26 ANTM IJ Equity 105 36,142 35% 12,631 61 AUTO IJ Equity 13 10,770 15% 1,626
27 INTP IJ Equity 20 28,922 40% 11,667 62 MPMX IJ Equity 10 4,553 33% 1,488
28 PANI IJ Equity 84 113,989 10% 11,493 63 GJTL IJ Equity 29 4,049 35% 1,417
29 PTBA IJ Equity 48 31,253 34% 10,630 64 ELSA IJ Equity 18 3,197 39% 1,243
30 EMTK IJ Equity 17 27,834 38% 10,450 65 BDKR IJ Equity 15 2,935 37% 1,080
31 AKRA IJ Equity 45 31,131 33% 10,275 66 BMTR IJ Equity 11 3,894 27% 1,045
32 ITMG IJ Equity 37 29,279 35% 10,170 67 MAHA IJ Equity 6 3,248 25% 800
33 EXCL IJ Equity 54 29,592 33% 9,822 68 SMIL IJ Equity 33 1,637 19% 311
34 CTRA IJ Equity 28 22,742 43% 9,801 69 WIFI IJ Equity 30 507 50% 252
35 ADMR IJ Equity 39 55,749 16% 9,008 70 PTMP IJ Equity 13 453 24% 109
Revenue 2,861 3,752 4,552 3,015 4,243 5,209 5.4% 13.1% 14.4%
Gross Profit 1,670 2,308 2,904 1,760 2,779 3,615 5.4% 20.4% 24.5%
Operating Profit 1,175 1,539 1,901 1,346 2,152 2,859 14.5% 39.9% 50.4%
NPATMI 546 860 1,086 649 1,148 1,515 18.9% 33.5% 39.5%
Figure 10. Our forecast on PANI’s financial performances Figure 11. Our forecast on PANI’s financial margin
Description Ownership Total land banks (Ha) Effective ownership (Ha) % Saleable Saleable Effective ownership (Ha) ASP (IDR mn/sqm) - Old *ASP (IDR mn/sqm)- New Gross Value (IDR Bn) Capex Infra (IDR Bn) Marketing fees + PPH (IDR Bn) NAV (IDR Bn)
BKS 51% 104 53.0 97% 51.6 42 47 24,355 1,024 1,075 22,256
MAS 29% 463 132.4 76% 100.3 30 34 33,815 2,005 1,488 30,322
CGIC 29% 164 46.9 49% 23.1 41 46 10,645 470 481 9,695
PET 99% 273 270.3 59% 159.8 42 47 75,441 3,136 3,296 69,009
BMW 94% 234 218.8 50% 109.1 40 45 49,033 2,186 2,186 44,660
CISN 100% 232 231.5 50% 116.0 40 45 52,154 2,311 2,282 47,561
JIS 93% 104 96.6 50% 48.5 40 45 21,790 966 954 19,870
KKU 97% 32 31.1 48% 15.0 21 24 3,541 307 161 3,073
KUS 99% 100 99.2 50% 50.0 21 24 11,802 995 523 10,284
SCU 91% 56 50.9 99% 50.5 30 34 17,032 1,018 763 15,251
SHM 92% 110 100.7 50% 50.4 42 47 23,780 1,010 1,060 21,711
CKI 29% 8 2.3 97% 2.3 42 47 1,065 45 40 980
Total (Average) 1,880.0 1,333.8 65% 776.4 36 40 324,453 15,472 14,270 294,671
* Our land prices estimates that the toll KATARAJA Phase 1 operates in 2025F Additional: FY25F Debt 650
Deduct: FY25F Cash 3,074
Deduct: FY25F Advance 19,964
Total 272,283
Shares out (post NPRI) -Mn 16.9
RNAV - IDR/sh 16,127
Premium to RNAV 55%
TP - IDR/sh 25,075
Rounding TP - IDR/sh 25,075
Current prices 15,200
Upside Potential 65%
Corporate Access
Nur Marini Corporate Access marini@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 6323
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