Published in Dawn, Jan 6th, 2025

Foreign Policy Dilemmas

By Maleeha Lodhi

dealing with an increasingly troubled

A
number of foreign policy challenges lie
ahead for Pakistan in 2025. They have relationship with Afghanistan, managing the

to be met in an unstable global adversarial relationship with India, balancing

environment of mounting geopolitical tensions, ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran and keeping

intense US-China competition, preoccupation of relations with the EU on a positive track.

major powers with wars in Ukraine and the The big unknown is how relations with
Middle East, and the uncertainties spawned by Trump’s America will shape up especially as
Donald Trump’s impending second term in Pakistan’s geopolitical importance has
office. The regional landscape too is fraught diminished for Washington since the US
and unsettled, with security problems casting a withdrawal from Afghanistan. The relationship
long shadow, as laid bare by recent hostilities remains at a crossroads with a reset proving
between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Moreover, elusive during President Joe Biden’s tenure.
these challenges have to be tackled when the The low-level engagement of the past four years
country’s economy remains fragile and was reflected in the fact that the US secretary of
dependent on external financial resources while state never once visited Pakistan. Nor did Biden
the political situation continues to be uncertain. show any interest in interacting with Pakistani
As all foreign policy begins at home, these leaders.
realities weigh heavily on the conduct of its
In Trump’s previous term relations got off
diplomacy.
to a rocky start when he announced a halt in
All challenges in the priority areas of assistance to Pakistan including in Coalition
Pakistan’s foreign policy need to be deftly Support Funds. For over half his tenure, there
handled. They include the country’s relations was no US ambassador in Islamabad. After
with China and the US, while avoiding getting Trump decided on the US exit from Afghanistan,
into the crosshairs of their confrontation, ties warmed as Washington needed Pakistan’s
help to initiate talks with the Taliban and forge security and economic interests but is
agreement with them at Doha. This eventually confronted with problems that need to be
paved the way for the American withdrawal. resolved to keep ties on a strong, positive
Beyond that — and the obvious bonhomie trajectory. The most important is allying Beijing’s
between Trump and former prime minister security concerns over Chinese personnel
Imran Khan — the relationship remained largely working in Pakistan. A spate of attacks that
devoid of bilateral content. killed Chinese workers last year prompted
China, Pakistan’s biggest investor, to publicly
It is against this backdrop that Islamabad
urge Islamabad to guarantee the safety of
seeks re-engagement with Washington to build
thousands of its workers.
a relationship based on Pakistan’s intrinsic
importance. The US remains Pakistan’s largest During the visit of a high-ranking Chinese
export destination, a potential source of FDI and official to Islamabad in June, Beijing’s message
a global power with significant influence, was publicly conveyed in a sharp manner. Liu
including over international financial institutions, Jianchao warned that security issues could
whose assistance Pakistan’s crisis-prone threaten CPEC’s future and was already
economy constantly needs. “shaking the confidence of Chinese investors”.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s constant requests for
A reset, however, faces several
financing/ loan rollovers and rescheduling debt
constraining factors. America’s top strategic
to independent power producers is
priority is to contain China. As Pakistan cannot
overburdening relations with its closest ally.
be part of any anti-China coalition, that limits the
There has been no progress in talks on the latter
space for Pakistan-US relations. Another
issue. Publicly asking for debt relief has also put
limiting factor is Washington’s growing strategic
China in an awkward position, because of
and economic relationship with India, its partner
implications for its lending to other countries.
of choice in the region in its strategy to project
India as a counterweight to China. Thus, the India, with whom a prolonged diplomatic
challenge is to find space for the Pak-US impasse persists, poses an imposing challenge.
relationship between these two strategic Relations have remained frozen and trade
realities. This will not be easy as Pakistan is suspended since August 2019 when Delhi
unlikely to figure in Trump’s foreign policy illegally annexed the disputed state of Jammu
priorities. and Kashmir, bifurcated and absorbed it into
the Indian union. It then carried out
China, of course, remains Pakistan’s
demographic and electoral changes to
overriding foreign policy priority. This time-
consolidate control over a population whose will
tested relationship meets both the country’s
to resist Delhi’s rule it has nonetheless failed to ended up with unstable or insecure borders with
diminish. two neighbours and unresolved border
problems with a third neighbour — Iran. This
India’s claim to have ‘settled’ Kashmir
situation needs to be redressed.
and refusal to talk to Pakistan on the issue
presents the most formidable obstacle to Pakistan’s membership of the UN
normalisation of ties. The Modi government has Security Council, which has just begun for a
shown no interest in resuming dialogue, two-year term, will provide an opportunity to
apparently concluding this hurts Pakistan, not raise the country’s diplomatic standing on the
India. This is apparent from the lack of an Indian world stage and contribute to discussions and
response to peace overtures from Pakistani actions on issues of international peace and
leaders over the past year. With no movement security. But it is unlikely to make its foreign
expected in the near term the immediate task is policy challenges any easier to deal with.
to manage tensions with India to prevent a crisis
from erupting.

Relations with Afghanistan have plunged

to another low after Pakistan recently carried out
air strikes inside Afghanistan targeting hideouts
of the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan.
Islamabad’s hand has been forced by Kabul’s
refusal to take action against TTP that continues
cross-border attacks, which intensified in 2024.
While diplomatic engagement continues it has
yielded nothing on this count. Although Pakistan
has increasingly adopted a coercive approach
towards Afghanistan, this has its limits as it
cannot risk a breakdown in relations. This
makes dealing with Kabul a difficult policy
dilemma for Islamabad in 2025.

Pakistan today has troubled relations in

varying degrees with all three neighbours. For
decades, Pakistan’s security and foreign policy
was aimed at averting a two-front scenario of
hot borders with its neighbours. Today, it has
 Key Takeaways
 A number of foreign policy challenges lie ahead for Pakistan in 2025. They have to be met in an unstable global
environment.
 All challenges in the priority areas of Pakistan’s foreign policy need to be deftly handled.
 They include the country’s relations with China and the US, while avoiding getting into the crosshairs of their
confrontation, dealing with an increasingly troubled relationship with Afghanistan, managing the adversarial
relationship with India, balancing ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran and keeping relations with the EU on a
positive track.
 Pakistan’s geopolitical importance has diminished for Washington since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
 After Trump decided on the US exit from Afghanistan, ties warmed as Washington needed Pakistan’s help to
initiate talks with the Taliban and forge agreement with them at Doha.
 The US remains Pakistan’s largest export destination, a potential source of FDI and a global power with
significant influence, including over international financial institutions, whose assistance Pakistan’s crisis-prone
economy constantly needs.
 America’s top strategic priority is to contain China. As Pakistan cannot be part of any anti-China coalition, that
limits the space for Pakistan-US relations.
 Another limiting factor is Washington’s growing strategic and economic relationship with India, its partner of
choice in the region in its strategy to project India as a counterweight to China.
 The most important is allying Beijing’s security concerns over Chinese personnel working in Pakistan. A spate
of attacks that killed Chinese workers last year prompted China, Pakistan’s biggest investor, to publicly urge
Islamabad to guarantee the safety of thousands of its workers.
 Pakistan’s constant requests for financing/ loan rollovers and rescheduling debt to independent power
producers is overburdening relations with its closest ally.
 Relations with India have remained frozen and trade suspended since August 2019 when Delhi illegally
annexed the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir, bifurcated and absorbed it into the Indian union.
 Relations with Afghanistan have plunged to another low after Pakistan recently carried out air strikes inside
Afghanistan targeting hideouts of the banned TTP.
 Pakistan today has troubled relations in varying degrees with all three neighbours.
 Pakistan’s membership of the UN Security Council, which has just begun for a two-year term, will provide an
opportunity to raise the country’s diplomatic standing on the world stage
 Meanings of Difficult Words
Words Meanings
Persistent : Consistent, Continues to exist
Mounting : A backing, setting, or support for something
Fraught : Of a situation or course of action) filled with or likely to result in (something
undesirable
Casting a long : Great, long-lasting influence over them
shadow
Deftly : Doing something skillfully, cleverly, or quickly
Crosshairs : Used figuratively to describe someone or something being targeted as if through
an aiming device1
Adversarial : Involving or characterized by conflict or opposition
Diminished : Made smaller or less
Elusive : Difficult to find, catch, or achieve
Halt : Bring or come to an abrupt stop
Forge : Create (something) strong, enduring, or successful
Intrinsic : Belonging naturally; essential
Spate : A large number of similar things coming in quick succession:
Rollovers : The extension or transfer of a debt or other financial arrangement
Bifurcated : Divided into two branches or parts
Formidable : Inspiring fear or respect through being impressively large, powerful, intense, or
capable

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