Geopolitics of Renewable Energy: A

Race for Dominance

The global transition to renewable energy is not merely an environmental imperative; it is
reshaping the geopolitical landscape, creating new alliances, vulnerabilities, and power
dynamics 1. As countries strive to achieve energy independence and dominate the clean energy
market, the race for renewable energy resources is intensifying. This article delves into the
complex interplay between renewable energy and geopolitics, exploring the key players,
potential conflicts, and the implications for global security and stability.

The Rise of Renewable Energy

The past decade has witnessed an unprecedented surge in renewable energy capacity
worldwide. Driven by concerns about climate change, declining costs of renewable
technologies, and increasing government support, solar and wind power have emerged as the
frontrunners in this energy revolution 2. This shift has profound implications for the global
balance of power, challenging the dominance of traditional fossil fuel producers and creating
opportunities for new leaders to emerge.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global renewable electricity generation is
forecast to climb to over 17,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, an increase of almost 90% from
2023 2. This would be enough to meet the combined power demand of China and the United
States in 2030. The IEA's "Renewables 2023" report further emphasizes solar PV's leading role
in this transition, highlighting an unprecedented surge in solar PV capacity 3.

Several key milestones are anticipated in the coming years:

●​ In 2024, solar PV and wind generation together are projected to surpass hydropower
generation.
●​ In 2025, renewables-based electricity generation is expected to overtake coal-fired
generation.
●​ In 2026, both wind and solar power generation are predicted to surpass nuclear power
generation.
●​ In 2027, solar PV electricity generation is anticipated to surpass wind generation 2.

These projections underscore the rapid growth and increasing dominance of renewable energy
sources in the global energy mix.

As of 2023, the world had installed 3,870 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity, representing
43% of the total power generation capacity 4. This significant growth in renewable energy
capacity highlights the ongoing shift towards cleaner energy sources.

Key Players in the Renewable Energy Landscape

China has emerged as a dominant force in the renewable energy sector, boasting the largest
installed capacity of renewable energy in the world 5. In 2021, China produced 31% of global
renewable electricity, followed by the United States (11%), Brazil (6.4%), Canada (5.4%), and
India (3.9%) 6. China's dominance extends across the supply chain, from the manufacturing of
solar panels and wind turbines to the control of critical minerals essential for these technologies
1
. However, it is important to note that while China is a leader in renewable energy, it remains
heavily reliant on fossil fuels 7. This presents a complex picture of China's role in the global
energy transition.

The United States, while lagging behind China in terms of installed capacity, remains a
significant player in the renewable energy race. The U.S. Department of Energy is actively
pursuing research and development initiatives to secure critical mineral supply chains and
promote domestic manufacturing of clean energy technologies 8. This includes efforts to
diversify sources and reduce dependence on China for critical minerals 1.

Beyond China and the United States, several other countries are demonstrating leadership in
renewable energy adoption. Norway, for example, generates 98.3% of its energy from
renewable sources, primarily hydropower 9. Brazil, with 89.3% renewable energy, has surpassed
New Zealand (87.6%) to take second place in the ranking of "cleanest countries" 9. Costa Rica
has also achieved remarkable success, producing 98% of its electricity from renewable sources
for over eight years in a row and holding the world record for the most consecutive days using
solely renewable energy 10. These examples highlight the diverse pathways and achievements
in renewable energy adoption across different countries.

International Agreements and Initiatives

International agreements and initiatives are playing an increasingly important role in promoting
the transition to renewable energy. The Paris Agreement, with its goal of limiting global warming,
has provided a framework for international cooperation on climate change mitigation, including
the promotion of renewable energy 11. Under the Paris Agreement, countries have submitted
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that quantify their commitments to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, with many NDCs including specific renewable energy targets 12.

At COP28 in 2023, 130 countries made a significant pledge to triple the world's renewable
energy capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 13. This
ambitious commitment reflects the growing global momentum towards accelerating the
renewable energy transition.

Initiatives such as the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the Sustainable
Energy for All (SE4All) are also facilitating the global expansion of renewable energy by
providing technical assistance, promoting investment, and fostering knowledge sharing 14.
These initiatives play a crucial role in supporting countries' efforts to transition to cleaner energy
systems.

Geopolitical Risks and Opportunities

The transition to renewable energy presents both risks and opportunities in the geopolitical
landscape. While renewable energy can enhance energy security and reduce reliance on fossil
fuels, it also creates new vulnerabilities and potential for conflict.

One significant risk is the increasing demand for critical minerals, such as rare earths, lithium,
and cobalt, which are essential for renewable energy technologies. This has raised concerns
about resource scarcity, potential conflicts over access to these resources, and the
environmental and social impacts of mining 15. The concentration of critical mineral reserves in
specific regions, often with weak governance structures, could exacerbate existing conflicts or
create new ones 16.

The shift away from fossil fuels could also destabilize traditional energy exporters, potentially
leading to political instability and conflict in regions heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues 17.
This necessitates a careful and managed transition to minimize the risks and ensure a stable
global energy market.

Furthermore, the rapid scale-up of renewable energy could exacerbate geopolitical risks related
to critical minerals, particularly in the Global South, where many mining projects are located 18.
This raises concerns about potential social and environmental injustices associated with the
extraction of these resources.

However, the rise of renewable energy also presents opportunities for international cooperation.
The shared goal of mitigating climate change and achieving energy security can foster
collaboration between countries in areas such as technology development, investment in
renewable energy infrastructure, and the establishment of sustainable supply chains 1.

The increasing reliance on interconnected electricity grids and the vulnerability of renewable
energy infrastructure to cyberattacks could also create new security challenges 19. This
necessitates international cooperation to enhance cybersecurity and ensure the resilience of
energy systems.

The Role of Renewable Energy in Achieving Energy

Security and Independence
Renewable energy plays a crucial role in achieving energy security and independence. By
diversifying energy sources and reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels, countries can
enhance their energy resilience and reduce their vulnerability to geopolitical shocks 20.
Renewable energy sources are domestically available and inexhaustible, reducing dependence
on volatile global energy markets and enhancing national energy security 21.

Renewable energy also contributes to energy security by promoting local electricity generation
and reducing reliance on centralized power plants, which are more susceptible to disruptions 22.
This can be particularly important for remote or isolated communities, enhancing their energy
independence and resilience.

However, it is important to acknowledge the potential challenges and vulnerabilities associated

with renewable energy security. Grid stability and intermittency issues, particularly with solar and
wind power, need to be addressed to ensure a reliable and secure energy supply 19. This
requires investments in grid modernization, energy storage technologies, and demand-side
management strategies.

In addition to enhancing energy security, renewable energy offers significant environmental

benefits. It reduces carbon emissions and air pollution from energy production, contributing to
cleaner air and a healthier environment 23. This aligns with the global goals of mitigating climate
change and promoting sustainable development.

Conclusion
The geopolitics of renewable energy is a complex and evolving landscape. The transition to
renewable energy is driven by a combination of environmental concerns, economic factors, and
geopolitical considerations. While renewable energy presents challenges, it also offers
opportunities for international cooperation and the achievement of greater energy security.

The race for dominance in the clean energy market is intensifying, with countries vying for
leadership in renewable energy production and technology. China has emerged as a dominant
player, but its reliance on fossil fuels and control over critical mineral supply chains raise
concerns. The United States and other countries are actively pursuing strategies to diversify
supply chains and enhance their own renewable energy capabilities.

The shift to renewable energy has the potential to reshape global power dynamics. It could
destabilize traditional energy exporters and create new centers of influence based on renewable
resources and technologies. This necessitates a careful and managed transition to minimize
risks and ensure a stable global energy market.

International cooperation is crucial to navigate the geopolitical challenges and opportunities of

the renewable energy transition. Collaboration in areas such as technology development,
investment, and cybersecurity is essential to ensure a secure and sustainable energy future for
all.

The transition to renewable energy also requires a focus on equity and justice. The extraction of
critical minerals and the development of renewable energy infrastructure should not come at the
expense of vulnerable communities or the environment. A just and equitable energy transition is
essential to ensure that the benefits of renewable energy are shared by all.

In conclusion, the geopolitics of renewable energy is a dynamic and multifaceted field with
significant implications for global security, stability, and sustainability. As the world transitions to
cleaner energy sources, it is crucial for countries to prioritize collaboration, innovation, and a just
and equitable approach to ensure a secure and sustainable energy future for all.

Works cited

1. The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy | The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR),
accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-geopolitics-of-renewable-energy/
2. Global overview – Renewables 2024 – Analysis - IEA, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2024/global-overview
3. IEA report shines spotlight on solar's pivotal role in global energy transition, accessed on
January 14, 2025,
https://www.solarpowereurope.org/news/iea-report-shines-spotlight-on-solar-s-pivotal-role-in-glo
bal-energy-transition
4. IRENA's Report Calls for a Tripled Renewable Power Capacity by 2030 - Statzon, accessed
on January 14, 2025,
https://statzon.com/insights/irenas-report-calls-for-a-tripled-renewable-power-capacity-by-2030
5. Renewable energy capacity worldwide by country 2023 - Statista, accessed on January 14,
2025,
https://www.statista.com/statistics/267233/renewable-energy-capacity-worldwide-by-country/
6. en.wikipedia.org, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_renewable_electricity_production
7. Top 10: Countries Using Renewable Energies, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://energydigital.com/top10/top-10-countries-using-renewable-energies
8. Energy Independence and Security, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://www.energy.gov/eere/energy-independence-and-security
9. Which countries lead on renewable energy? | Know The Story, accessed on January 14,
2025,
https://www.be-the-story.com/en/environment/the-cleanest-countries-leading-the-way-to-renewa
ble-energy/
10. 11 countries leading the charge on renewable energy | Climate Council, accessed on
January 14, 2025,
https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-charge-on-renewable-energy/
11. The Paris Agreement | United Nations, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement
12. Renewable energy and climate pledges: Five years after the Paris Agreement - IRENA,
accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Dec/Renewable-energy-and-climate-pledges
13. Global Overview | Policy - REN21, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://www.ren21.net/gsr-2024/modules/global_overview/02_policy/
14. Renewable Energy - UNFCCC, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://unfccc.int/resource/climateaction2020/tep/thematic-areas/renewable-energy/index.html
15. The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy - Center on Global Energy ..., accessed on January
14, 2025, https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/publications/geopolitics-renewable-energy/
16. How Renewable Energy Could Fuel Future Conflicts, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2018/10/08/renewable-energy-fuel-future-conflicts/
17. Renewable energy will lead to major shifts in geopolitical power - DIIS, accessed on January
14, 2025,
https://www.diis.dk/en/research/renewable-energy-will-lead-to-major-shifts-in-geopolitical-power
18. The Uncomfortable Geopolitics of the Clean Energy Transition | Lawfare, accessed on
January 14, 2025,
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-uncomfortable-geopolitics-of-the-clean-energy-transitio
n
19. The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy - Belfer Center, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/geopolitics-renewable-energy
20. www.energy.gov, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://www.energy.gov/eere/energy-independence-and-security#:~:text=Increasing%20Energy
%20Independence%20and%20Security&text=Renewable%20power%20supports%20energy%2
0security,Local%20electricity%20generation
21. The Role of Renewable Energy in National Security, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://acore.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ACORE_Issue-Brief_-The-Role-of-Renewable-En
ergy-in-National-Security.pdf
22. Renewable Energy to Support Energy Security - NREL, accessed on January 14, 2025,
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/74617.pdf
23. Renewable energy – powering a safer future | United Nations, accessed on January 14,
2025, https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/raising-ambition/renewable-energy