Bridging History with AI: A Comparative Evaluation of GPT-

3.5, GPT-4, and Google-BARD in Predictive Accuracy and Fact-

Checking

Davut Emre TAŞAR1 Ceren ÖCAL TAŞAR1

Karabuk University Independent Researcher
Computer Engineering
Karabük, Turkey İzmir, Turkey
2228126453@ogrenci.karabuk.edu.tr ceren.ocaltasar@gmail.com
ORCID:0000-0002-7788-0478 ORCID: 0000-0002-0652-7386

Abstract performance of three LLMs—GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Google-

BARD—in historical fact-checking and predictive analysis.
The rapid proliferation of information in the digital era
underscores the importance of accurate historical 2. Materials and Methods:
representation and interpretation. While artificial intelligence
The study employs three advanced LLMs, namely, GPT-3.5,
(AI) has shown promise in various fields, its potential for
GPT-4, and Google-BARD. GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 are
historical fact-checking and gap-filling remains largely
transformer-based language models developed by OpenAI,
untapped. This study evaluates the performance of three
noted for their large-scale training datasets and sophisticated
large language models (LLMs)—GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Google-
architecture [6, 7]. Google-BARD is a BERT-based model
BARD—in the context of predicting and verifying historical
developed by Google Research, leveraging similar machine
events based on given data. A novel metric, "Distance to
learning principles [8]. A comprehensive set of historical
Reality" (DTR), is introduced to assess the models' outputs
events and their potential outcomes, listed in the appendix,
against established historical facts. The results reveal a
served as input prompts for the models. The models' outputs
substantial potential for AI in historical studies, with GPT-4
were assessed based on a novel metric, "Distance to Reality"
demonstrating superior performance. This paper underscores
(DTR), which gauges the alignment of AI predictions with
the need for further research into AI's role in enriching our
actual historical facts. The Distance to Reality (DTR) is a
understanding of the past and bridging historical knowledge
measure of how closely an AI model's output aligns with
gaps.
recorded historical facts. It is essentially a measure of error
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Large Language Models, between the predicted and actual outcomes. A lower DTR
GPT-3.5, GPT-4, Google-BARD, Historical Fact-Checking, score indicates a higher degree of accuracy in the AI model's
Distance to Reality, History, AI in Education, Gap Bridging prediction.

1. Introduction The DTR can be calculated using the following steps:

Historical knowledge, with its complex tapestry of events,

personalities, and timelines, is crucial for understanding 1-Compute the AI model's prediction: Run the AI model on
societal evolution. However, the sheer volume of digital the given historical data to generate a predicted outcome.
information today has heightened the risk of
2-Establish the ground truth: Use recorded historical facts as
misinterpretations and inaccuracies, making fact-checking an
the ground truth against which the AI model's prediction will
essential practice [1]. With the advent of artificial intelligence
be compared.
(AI), particularly the development of large language models
(LLMs), we have an unprecedented opportunity to not only 3-Calculate the DTR: The DTR is calculated as the absolute
validate historical facts but also predict and fill knowledge difference between the AI model's predicted outcome and
gaps [2, 3]. AI's potential for historical fact-checking and the ground truth.
predictive analysis is a burgeoning area of research that could
revolutionize our approach to historical studies [4, 5]. This
study embarks on an exploratory journey to evaluate the
If we denote the AI model's prediction as P and the actual he scope of this study provides a springboard for further
historical fact as F, the DTR can be calculated as follows: explorations into AI's potential to reconstruct incomplete or
ambiguous historical narratives. The emerging field of AI in
history presents a new frontier in the pursuit of a more
DTR = |P - F| comprehensive and accurate understanding of our past.

The smaller the DTR, the closer the AI model's prediction is to This study's findings suggest that AI, particularly advanced
the actual historical event. It is worth noting that the DTR is a LLMs like GPT-4, can play a significant role in historical
simple measure of error and may not capture all aspects of studies, both as a reliable fact-checking tool and a predictive
the AI model's performance. Other metrics, such as precision, mechanism for filling historical knowledge gaps. However, it's
recall, and F1 score, could be used in conjunction to provide crucial to bear in mind the limitations of AI in its current state.
a more comprehensive evaluation of the model's While it can provide valuable insights, AI doesn't replace the
performance. nuanced understanding and critical analysis that human
historians bring to the study of the past.

3. Experiment and Results

Nevertheless, the integration of AI into historical studies can
The experiment involved presenting the LLMs with a series of complement traditional research methods, opening new
historical events and potential outcomes. The LLMs' avenues for exploration and interpretation. By embracing this
responses were evaluated based on the DTR metric, which technology, we can possibly uncover novel perspectives on
quantifies the disparity between AI predictions and historical our past, enriching our collective understanding of history.
reality. A lower DTR score indicates a higher degree of
accuracy in the AI model's prediction. Results are provided in
Table 1 given below:

TABLE-1 Distance to Reality

Event No GPT-3.5 GPT-4 Google-BARD 4. Conclusion
In conclusion, this study underscores the potential of AI,
1 0,1 0,1 0,1
particularly LLMs, in historical fact-checking and knowledge
2 0,2 0,05 0,3 gap bridging. GPT-4 demonstrated the highest accuracy
among the models evaluated, suggesting its superior
3 0,1 0,05 0 capability in understanding complex historical contexts. The
4 0,3 0,01 0,6 introduction of the DTR metric provides a quantitative means
to assess the performance of AI in predicting historical events,
5 0,1 0 0,2 contributing to the growing body of research in this area.
6 0,1 0 0
AVG 0,15 0,035 0,20 However, while the potential of AI in historical studies is
promising, it's important to approach these technological
tools as complementary to, rather than a replacement for,
GPT-4 achieved the lowest average DTR score (0.035), traditional historical inquiry. Future research should aim to
followed by GPT-3.5 (0.15) and Google-BARD (0.20). The refine these AI models, enabling more accurate predictions
superior performance of GPT-4 could be attributed to its and a deeper understanding of historical events. As we
larger training dataset and more advanced architecture, continue to harness AI's potential, we move closer to a future
enabling a better understanding of complex historical where historical studies are enriched by the insights gleaned
contexts. from these advanced technologies.

References:
These findings highlight the potential of AI, particularly LLMs,
in historical fact-checking and knowledge gap bridging. While
the models showed competency in discerning established [1] Luengo, María, and David García-Marín. "The performance
historical facts, their capability to 'fill in the gaps' in historical of truth: politicians, fact-checking journalism, and the
knowledge is a fertile ground for future research. struggle to tackle COVID-19 misinformation." American
Journal of Cultural Sociology 8 (2020): 405-427.
[2] Zhao, Liang. "Event prediction in the big data era: A of 1. Example: info2 can be %90 possible because... and %10
systematic survey." ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR) 54.5 impossible because...
(2021): 1-37.
### I want you to reason not guess what i am asking*
[3] van Heerden, Imke, and Anil Bas. "Ai as author–bridging
*This one added because BARD was trying to guess the ratio
the gap between machine learning and literary theory."
of what i am trying to ask not if the event has happened or
Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 71 (2021): 175-189.
not.
[4] Alam, Ashraf. "Possibilities and apprehensions in the
landscape of artificial intelligence in education." 2021 Events:
International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Event No 1:
Computing Applications (ICCICA). IEEE, 2021.
<<<info1>>>
[5] Lambers, Karsten, Wouter B. Verschoof-van der Vaart, and
Quentin PJ Bourgeois. "Integrating remote sensing, machine
learning, and citizen science in Dutch archaeological Main Event:
prospection." Remote Sensing 11.7 (2019): 794..
[6] Brown, Tom, et al. "Language models are few-shot
learners." Advances in neural information processing systems 1492: Christopher Columbus' Voyage to the Americas.
33 (2020): 1877-1901.. This event is considered a turning point in world history.
[7] Humbert, M., Ayday, E., Hubaux, J. P., & Telenti, A. (2013). Columbus, backed by the Spanish monarchs Ferdinand II of
Peng, Baolin, et al. "Instruction tuning with gpt-4." arXiv Aragon and Isabella I of Castile, ventured westward in search
preprint arXiv:2304.03277 (2023). of a new route to Asia but instead landed in the Bahamas,
marking the first recorded contact between Europeans and
[8] https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search- the Americas. This voyage initiated widespread exchange and
updates/ interaction between the Old World (Europe, Asia, Africa) and
the New World (the Americas).

Appendix:
Connected Events in 1493 (directly resulting from Columbus'
Promt For GPT 3,5 & GPT 4: voyage):
### I will provide you two historical information above ###
### Information one will be provided between <<<info1>>> The Return of Columbus to Spain (March 1493): After his
<<<info1>>> successful voyage, Columbus returned to Spain, bringing with
him news and items from the New World. This event ignited
### Information two will be provided between <<<info2>>>
interest and anticipation throughout Europe, setting the
<<<info2>>>
stage for subsequent explorations and invasions.
### You dont know info2 and you will try to guess it based on
info1
Pope Alexander VI issues the Bull Inter Caetera (May 1493):
### in order you to guess info2 i will ask you based on info1
This was a series of Papal bulls that granted Spain the rights
can info2 be possible or not. Provide ratio of possibility and
to colonize the newly discovered lands, leading to further
not possibility with sum of 1. Example: info2 can be %90
expeditions and the start of intense colonization efforts.
possible because... and %10 impossible because...

Beginning of the Columbian Exchange: The term "Columbian

Promt For Google Bard: Exchange" refers to the transfer—both ways—of plants,
### I will provide you two historical information above animals, culture, human populations, technology, diseases,
and ideas between the Americas, West Africa, and the Old
### ### Information one will be provided between World in the wake of Columbus' 1492 voyage.
<<<info1>>> <<<info1>>>
### Information two will be provided between <<<info2>>>
<<<info2>>> Introduction of Smallpox in the Americas: One of the most
devastating aspects of the Columbian Exchange was the
### You dont know info2 and you will try to guess it based on introduction of diseases like smallpox to the Americas, which
info1 ### I Want you to guess if info2 is true or not based on caused widespread death among indigenous populations
information i have provided you with info1. with no immunity.
### guess if info2 based on info1. Can info2 be possible or
not? Provide ratio of possibility and not possibility with sum
Introduction of New Crops to Europe: The Americas
introduced a variety of new crops to Europe, including maize,
First Large-Scale Use of Chemical Weapons (April 1915): At
potatoes, and tomatoes, leading to changes in European diet
the Second Battle of Ypres, the Germans used chlorine gas for
and agriculture.
the first time, marking a new and devastating form of warfare.

The Introduction of the Horse to the Americas: The

The Gallipoli Campaign (April 1915 - January 1916): This
reintroduction of the horse, which had gone extinct in the
unsuccessful attempt by the Allied forces to control the sea
Americas, had a significant impact on Native American
route from Europe to Russia was a significant event in the war
cultures, particularly in the Great Plains region.
and had far-reaching impacts on nations involved, notably
Australia, New Zealand, and Turkey.
Start of the Atlantic Slave Trade: With the colonization of the
New World, the demand for labor increased, leading to the
The Shell Crisis of 1915 (May 1915): In Britain, a shortage of
start of the transatlantic slave trade where millions of
artillery shells led to political crisis and the establishment of
Africans were forcibly brought to the Americas.
the Ministry of Munitions, reflecting how the war influenced
domestic policy and industry.
Expansion of Spanish Influence: With the discovery of the
New World, Spain became a leading world power, controlling
Italy Joins the War (May 1915): Originally a member of the
vast territories and resources in the Americas.
Central Powers, Italy switched sides in the Treaty of London
<<<info1>>> and joined the Allies, altering the dynamics of the conflict.

<<<info2>>> The Battle of Loos (September - October 1915): This major

British offensive in France was one of the largest battles for
British troops up to that point and highlighted the immense
Preparation of Columbus' Second Voyage (September 1493) human cost of the war.

<<<info2>>> The Great Retreat on the Eastern Front (July - September

1915): This was a key moment in the war between Germany,
Austria-Hungary, and Russia, resulting in significant territory
changes.
Event No 2: <<<info1>>>
<<<info1>>>
<<<info2>>>
Main Event:
The Zeppelin Raids on London (January - October 1915):
German airship bombings brought the war to the British
1914: Start of World War I.
home front, affecting civilian morale and prompting changes
World War I, also known as the Great War, was a global war in defensive strategies.
that lasted from 1914 to 1918. It was one of the deadliest
conflicts in history, and it significantly shaped the course of
the 20th century. It began following the assassination of <<<info2>>>
Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary in June 1914.

Connected Events in 1915 (directly resulting from the start of

World War I):
Event No 3:
<<<info1>>>
The Sinking of the Lusitania (May 1915): The sinking of this
British passenger liner by a German submarine heightened
tensions between Germany and the United States,
Main Event:
influencing U.S. involvement in the war later.
 The Zeppelin Raids on New Zealand (January - October 1915):
German airship bombings brought the war to the Auckland
1914: Start of World War I.
home front, affecting civilian morale and prompting changes
World War I, also known as the Great War, was a global war in defensive strategies.
that lasted from 1914 to 1918. It was one of the deadliest
conflicts in history, and it significantly shaped the course of
the 20th century. It began following the assassination of <<<info2>>>
Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary in June 1914.

Event No 4:
Connected Events in 1915 (directly resulting from the start of
<<<info1>>>
World War I):

Main Event:
The Sinking of the Lusitania (May 1915): The sinking of this
British passenger liner by a German submarine heightened
tensions between Germany and the United States,
1914: Start of World War I.
influencing U.S. involvement in the war later.
World War I, also known as the Great War, was a global war
that lasted from 1914 to 1918. It was one of the deadliest
First Large-Scale Use of Chemical Weapons (April 1915): At conflicts in history, and it significantly shaped the course of
the Second Battle of Ypres, the Germans used chlorine gas for the 20th century. It began following the assassination of
the first time, marking a new and devastating form of warfare. Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary in June 1914.

The Gallipoli Campaign (April 1915 - January 1916): This Connected Events in 1915 (directly resulting from the start of
unsuccessful attempt by the Allied forces to control the sea World War I):
route from Europe to Russia was a significant event in the war
and had far-reaching impacts on nations involved, notably
Australia, New Zealand, and Turkey. The Sinking of the Lusitania (May 1915): The sinking of this
British passenger liner by a German submarine heightened
tensions between Germany and the United States,
The Shell Crisis of 1915 (May 1915): In Britain, a shortage of influencing U.S. involvement in the war later.
artillery shells led to political crisis and the establishment of
the Ministry of Munitions, reflecting how the war influenced
domestic policy and industry. First Large-Scale Use of Chemical Weapons (April 1915): At
the Second Battle of Ypres, the Germans used chlorine gas for
the first time, marking a new and devastating form of warfare.
Italy Joins the War (May 1915): Originally a member of the
Central Powers, Italy switched sides in the Treaty of London
and joined the Allies, altering the dynamics of the conflict. The Gallipoli Campaign (April 1915 - January 1916): This
unsuccessful attempt by the Allied forces to control the sea
route from Europe to Russia was a significant event in the war
The Battle of Loos (September - October 1915): This major and had far-reaching impacts on nations involved, notably
British offensive in France was one of the largest battles for Australia, New Zealand, and Turkey.
British troops up to that point and highlighted the immense
human cost of the war.
The Shell Crisis of 1915 (May 1915): In Britain, a shortage of
artillery shells led to political crisis and the establishment of
The Great Retreat on the Eastern Front (July - September the Ministry of Munitions, reflecting how the war influenced
1915): This was a key moment in the war between Germany, domestic policy and industry.
Austria-Hungary, and Russia, resulting in significant territory
changes.
Italy Joins the War (May 1915): Originally a member of the
<<<info1>>>
Central Powers, Italy switched sides in the Treaty of London
and joined the Allies, altering the dynamics of the conflict.
<<<info2>>>
The Battle of Loos (September - October 1915): This major reduce regional differences, which was a significant
British offensive in France was one of the largest battles for administrative change aiming to create a more unified and
British troops up to that point and highlighted the immense egalitarian France.
human cost of the war.

Fête de la Fédération (July 1790): This massive feast and

The Great Retreat on the Eastern Front (July - September official event celebrated the unity of the French nation during
1915): This was a key moment in the war between Germany, the French Revolution.
Austria-Hungary, and Russia, resulting in significant territory
changes.
First Assignats Issued (April 1790): The National Assembly
<<<info1>>>
issued the first assignats, a form of paper money, to address
the national debt, marking the start of significant economic
changes and challenges during the Revolution.
<<<info2>>>

Suppression of Monastic Vows (Feb 1790): The National

The Zeppelin Raids on Turkey (January - October 1915):
Assembly decided to suppress religious orders and monastic
German airship bombings brought the war to the Turkish
vows, furthering the secularization of French society.
home front, affecting civilian morale and prompting changes
in defensive strategies.
Introduction of the Metric System (Dec 1790): France started
the process of metrication, leading to the development of the
<<<info2>>>
metric system, a significant scientific achievement of the
Revolution.
Event No 5:
<<<info1>>> Le Chapelier Law (June 1791): This law prohibited guilds and
trade unions, setting the foundation for liberal, laissez-faire
economics in France.
Main Event:
<<<info1>>>

1789: The French Revolution Begins.

<<<info2>>>
The French Revolution was a period of radical political and
Flight to Varennes (June 1791): King Louis XVI attempted to
societal change in France that lasted from 1789 until 1799.
escape Paris, which ended in his capture. This event deeply
This revolution was triggered by economic hardships, political
affected public opinion and led to a shift towards
corruption, and Enlightenment ideals, leading to a shift from
republicanism.
an absolute monarchy to a republic.
<<<info2>>>
Event No 6: <<<info1>>>
Connected Events in 1790 (directly resulting from the
beginning of the French Revolution):
Main Event:
Abolition of the French Nobility (June 1790): The National
Assembly voted to abolish the feudal system entirely,
1789: The French Revolution Begins.
stripping nobles of their privileges. It marked the end of the
Ancien Régime's social structure. The French Revolution was a period of radical political and
societal change in France that lasted from 1789 until 1799.
This revolution was triggered by economic hardships, political
Civil Constitution of the Clergy (July 1790): This law passed by corruption, and Enlightenment ideals, leading to a shift from
the National Assembly turned the remaining clergy into an absolute monarchy to a republic.
employees of the state, a controversial measure that caused
a significant rift within the French population.
Connected Events in 1790 (directly resulting from the
beginning of the French Revolution):
Establishment of Departments (Dec 1790): France was
divided into 83 departments to replace the provinces and
Abolition of the French Nobility (June 1790): The National Event 1:
Assembly voted to abolish the feudal system entirely,
stripping nobles of their privileges. It marked the end of the Based on the provided information, I will assess the possibility
Ancien Régime's social structure. of info2 being "Preparation of Columbus' Second Voyage
(September 1493)." Info2 can be considered highly possible,
with a ratio of approximately 90% possibility and 10%
Civil Constitution of the Clergy (July 1790): This law passed by impossibility. Here's the reasoning behind the possibility:
the National Assembly turned the remaining clergy into Historical Context: The events mentioned in info1, such as
employees of the state, a controversial measure that caused Christopher Columbus' successful voyage to the Americas in
a significant rift within the French population. 1492 and his return to Spain in March 1493, created
significant interest and anticipation throughout Europe. This
interest led to subsequent explorations and invasions, making
Establishment of Departments (Dec 1790): France was it highly likely that Columbus would embark on a second
divided into 83 departments to replace the provinces and voyage. Timing: The timeframe mentioned in info2 is
reduce regional differences, which was a significant September 1493, which aligns with the sequence of events
administrative change aiming to create a more unified and following Columbus' initial voyage. After returning to Spain,
egalitarian France. Columbus brought back news and items from the New World,
which further fueled the desire for exploration and
colonization. It is plausible that preparations for his second
Fête de la Fédération (July 1790): This massive feast and voyage would have taken place within months of his return.
official event celebrated the unity of the French nation during Colonial Ambitions: The issuance of the Bull Inter Caetera by
the French Revolution. Pope Alexander VI in May 1493 granted Spain the rights to
colonize the newly discovered lands. This formal
authorization and the desire to expand Spanish influence in
First Assignats Issued (April 1790): The National Assembly the Americas would have necessitated subsequent voyages
issued the first assignats, a form of paper money, to address and colonization efforts. Historical Precedent: Throughout
the national debt, marking the start of significant economic history, explorers and conquerors often embarked on
changes and challenges during the Revolution. multiple expeditions to expand their knowledge, territories,
and influence. Given the significance of Columbus' first
voyage and the opportunities presented by the New World, it
Suppression of Monastic Vows (Feb 1790): The National is reasonable to assume that preparations for his second
Assembly decided to suppress religious orders and monastic voyage would have been made. However, it is important to
vows, furthering the secularization of French society. note that historical events can be influenced by various
factors, and there might be unknown circumstances that
could make info2 impossible. Nevertheless, based on the
Introduction of the Metric System (Dec 1790): France started information provided, the possibility of "Preparation of
the process of metrication, leading to the development of the Columbus' Second Voyage (September 1493)" is high.
metric system, a significant scientific achievement of the
Event 2:
Revolution.
Based on the provided information, I will assess the possibility
of info2 being "The Zeppelin Raids on London (January -
Le Chapelier Law (June 1791): This law prohibited guilds and October 1915)."
trade unions, setting the foundation for liberal, laissez-faire
economics in France.
Info2 can be considered quite possible, with a ratio of
<<<info1>>>
approximately 80% possibility and 20% impossibility.
Here's the reasoning behind the possibility:
Historical Context: The events mentioned in info1,
<<<info2>>> particularly the start of World War I in 1914 and the
subsequent connected events in 1915, illustrate the
Flight to Varennes (June 1791): King Louis XVI attempted to
widespread nature of the conflict and its impact on various
escape Paris, which ended in his victory. This event deeply
fronts. The use of new technologies and strategies, such as
affected public opinion and led to a shift towards monarchy.
the large-scale use of chemical weapons and the Gallipoli
<<<info2>>> Campaign, characterized the evolving nature of warfare
during this period.
Technological Advancements: The Zeppelin airships were a
AI answers for the events: GPT 3.5 notable technological innovation during World War I, and
they were employed by Germany for strategic bombing
missions. These airships were capable of reaching long Limited Capabilities of Zeppelins: Zeppelins were formidable
distances and carrying substantial payloads, making them a aerial platforms for their time, but their operational range
potential threat to enemy cities. and payload capacity were limited. Conducting raids on a
distant location like New Zealand would have been logistically
Chronological Alignment: The timeframe mentioned in info2
challenging and strategically unfeasible, considering the
is January to October 1915, which falls within the time range
resources and risks involved.
of the connected events of World War I provided in info1.
Considering the fluid nature of warfare during the early years While historical events can sometimes surprise us with
of the conflict, it is plausible that Zeppelin raids on London unexpected occurrences, the possibility of Zeppelin raids on
occurred during this period. New Zealand during the specified period is highly unlikely
based on the geographical, strategic, and historical factors
Impact on Civilian Morale: The Zeppelin raids on London had
mentioned above.
a significant psychological impact on the British home front.
The bombings brought the war directly to civilian populations,
causing fear, damage, and casualties. These raids prompted
changes in defensive strategies, such as the implementation Event 4:
of blackout measures and the development of anti-aircraft Based on the provided information, I will assess the possibility
defenses. of info2 being "The Zeppelin Raids on Turkey (January -
However, it is important to acknowledge that historical October 1915)."
events can be influenced by various factors, and there might Info2 is unlikely, with a ratio of approximately 30% possibility
be unknown circumstances that could make info2 impossible. and 70% impossibility.
The possibility of Zeppelin raids on London taking place in the
specified timeframe is supported by historical context and Here's the reasoning behind the possibility:
technological advancements of the time. Nonetheless, Technological Advancements: The use of Zeppelin airships as
further research into specific dates and details of the raids a strategic bombing tool during World War I was employed by
would be necessary for a definitive confirmation. Germany. Zeppelins were capable of long-range flights and
carrying significant payloads, making them a potential threat
to enemy targets.
Event 3: Chronological Alignment: The timeframe mentioned in info2
Based on the provided information, I will assess the possibility falls within the year 1915, which is the same period as the
of info2 being "The Zeppelin Raids on New Zealand (January - connected events provided in info1. This suggests that it is
October 1915)." feasible for Zeppelin raids on Turkey to have occurred during
this time, as the war was in full swing and various powers
Info2 is highly unlikely, with a ratio of approximately 10%
were actively engaging in military operations.
possibility and 90% impossibility.
Strategic Importance of Turkey: Turkey, then known as the
Here's the reasoning behind the impossibility:
Ottoman Empire, was a significant player in World War I. It
Geographical Considerations: New Zealand, being a remote held a strategic location linking Europe and Asia and
island nation located in the southwestern Pacific Ocean, was controlled access to important waterways like the
far removed from the main theater of World War I. The major Dardanelles and the Bosporus. As a result, it was a target of
combatants in the war, such as Germany and the Allied military operations by various powers, including the Allied
powers, were primarily focused on Europe and other regions forces. Zeppelin raids on Turkey could have been part of these
closer to their territories. The distance and logistical military strategies.
challenges involved in conducting Zeppelin raids on New
Zealand make it highly improbable.
However, it is important to consider the following points that
Lack of Strategic Significance: New Zealand, while being a part
suggest the impossibility of info2:
of the British Empire and providing troops for the war effort,
did not hold significant strategic value for the main Lack of Historical Records: There are no specific historical
belligerents involved in World War I. The major military records or accounts indicating Zeppelin raids on Turkey
operations and engagements of the war were concentrated during the specified timeframe. While Zeppelins were used
in Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Africa, where vital for strategic bombing in different theaters of World War I, the
resources, trade routes, and political interests were at stake. focus of their attacks was primarily on enemy cities and
industrial centers closer to German territories.
Absence of Historical Records: There are no historical records
or accounts indicating Zeppelin raids on New Zealand during Limited Zeppelin Operations: Zeppelins had certain
the specified timeframe of January to October 1915. The use operational limitations, including their relatively slow speed,
of Zeppelins as a strategic bombing tool was primarily vulnerability to anti-aircraft fire, and the need for favorable
employed by Germany against targets closer to their own weather conditions. These factors would have made long-
territories, such as British cities and industrial centers. distance raids on Turkey from German bases more
challenging.
Focus on Gallipoli Campaign: The Gallipoli Campaign, which Based on the provided information, I will assess the possibility
took place in Turkey from April 1915 to January 1916, was a of info2 being "Flight to Varennes (June 1791): King Louis XVI
significant event in the war and involved extensive Allied attempted to escape Paris, which ended in his victory. This
operations to control the sea route to Russia. The focus of event deeply affected public opinion and led to a shift
military activities in the region during that time was primarily towards monarchy."
on ground and naval operations, rather than air raids by
Info2 is highly unlikely, with a ratio of approximately 10%
Zeppelins.
possibility and 90% impossibility.
Based on these factors, while the possibility of Zeppelin raids
Here's the reasoning behind the impossibility:
on Turkey cannot be completely ruled out, it appears unlikely
given the lack of historical records and the focus of military Historical Accuracy: The information provided in info2
operations in the region during that period. contains inaccuracies. The flight to Varennes in June 1791 did
not end in King Louis XVI's victory; rather, it ended in his
Event 5: capture and return to Paris. King Louis XVI and his family were
Based on the provided information, I will assess the possibility recognized and detained in the town of Varennes as they
of info2 being "Flight to Varennes (June 1791): King Louis XVI attempted to flee to the eastern border of France. This event
attempted to escape Paris, which ended in his capture. This deeply affected public opinion but had the opposite effect,
event deeply affected public opinion and led to a shift contributing to a shift away from monarchy.
towards republicanism." Impact on Public Opinion: The failed escape attempt by King
Info2 is highly possible, with a ratio of approximately 90% Louis XVI and his subsequent capture were seen as a betrayal
possibility and 10% impossibility. and a sign of the king's lack of commitment to the ideals of
the revolution. The event further eroded public trust in the
Here's the reasoning behind the possibility: monarchy and strengthened the calls for the abolition of the
Historical Significance: The events mentioned in info1, monarchy, not a shift towards it.
particularly the French Revolution that began in 1789, were Historical Records: The flight to Varennes is well-documented
characterized by a radical shift in political and societal in historical records and is recognized as a significant event in
structures. The monarchy, represented by King Louis XVI, was the French Revolution. The capture of King Louis XVI and his
under increasing pressure and scrutiny during this period. The return to Paris marked a turning point in the revolution,
flight attempt by King Louis XVI to escape Paris and his leading to increased calls for his deposition and the
subsequent capture were significant events in the Revolution. establishment of a republic.
Chronological Alignment: The timeframe mentioned in info2 Given these factors, it is highly improbable that info2 refers
is June 1791, which falls within the period of the connected to the "Flight to Varennes" ending in King Louis XVI's victory
events provided in info1. The flight to Varennes occurred and leading to a shift towards monarchy. The historical facts
during this time, making it plausible that it deeply affected indicate the opposite, with the event contributing to a shift
public opinion and influenced the trajectory of the away from monarchy and strengthening the revolutionary
Revolution. sentiments of the time.
Impact on Public Opinion: The failed escape attempt by King
Louis XVI was seen as a betrayal by the French people. It
shattered any remaining illusions of a compromise between
the monarchy and the revolutionary forces. The event further
galvanized republican sentiments and strengthened the
resolve to abolish the monarchy, leading to a shift towards
republicanism.
AI answers for the events: GPT 4
Historical Records: The flight to Varennes is a well-
documented event in the French Revolution. It is widely Event 1:
recognized as a turning point that diminished support for the Based on the information provided in info1, the possibility of
monarchy and increased support for a republic. info2 ("Preparation of Columbus' Second Voyage in
However, it is important to acknowledge that historical September 1493") occurring is quite high.
events can be influenced by various factors, and there might Info1 details the success of Christopher Columbus' initial
be unknown circumstances that could make info2 impossible. voyage and the widespread enthusiasm it ignited throughout
Nonetheless, based on the information provided, the Europe. Furthermore, the Spanish monarchs supported
possibility of "Flight to Varennes (June 1791)" is high, given its Columbus, and the Pope issued the Bull Inter Caetera, which
historical significance, chronological alignment, impact on granted Spain the rights to colonize the newly discovered
public opinion, and available historical records. lands. This further incentivized more exploration and
colonization efforts.
Event 6:
Given these circumstances, it is reasonable to infer that Info1 outlines the significant events of World War I, which
preparations for a second voyage by Columbus would be was indeed a global conflict. However, the vast majority of the
initiated swiftly. The Spanish monarchy, excited by the fighting and events were concentrated in Europe and the
prospects of the New World and eager to establish a strong Near East, far from New Zealand.
presence there, would have likely planned for further
While Zeppelins were used by Germany during the war, their
expeditions. Columbus himself, having returned successfully,
range and capabilities were significantly limited by the
would have been eager to continue his explorations.
technology of the time. New Zealand, located in the
Therefore, I would say the possibility of info2 happening southwestern Pacific Ocean, is thousands of kilometers away
based on info1 is 90%. The reason I don't say 100% is that from any major European power involved in World War I. It
even with all the impetus for a second voyage, there could would have been practically impossible for a Zeppelin to
have been unforeseen circumstances that delayed or travel such a distance, conduct a bombing raid, and return to
prevented preparations in that exact timeframe (September base.
1493). Factors such as logistical issues, political disputes, or
Also, there's no mention of the involvement of the Pacific
even health concerns for Columbus or his crew could have
region in the conflict, and New Zealand's main contribution
potentially delayed the preparations.
was troops fighting on the European front, as seen in the
So, I would say there is a 90% possibility and a 10% Gallipoli campaign. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that a
impossibility based on the information from info1. German Zeppelin would or could target Auckland or any part
of New Zealand.
Given these reasons, I would say the possibility of info2
Event 2: happening based on info1 is about 5%. This small percentage
Based on the information provided in info1, the possibility of accounts for the uncertainty inherent in any historical event.
info2 ("The Zeppelin Raids on London from January to There may have been outlier scenarios, for example, where a
October 1915") occurring is very high. rogue Zeppelin went drastically off course or a highly
unconventional mission was attempted. However, these
Info1 outlines the significant events of World War I and clearly seem highly improbable given the constraints of the time.
indicates that the conflict was escalating on multiple fronts in
1915. It was a global war with many countries participating So, I would say there is a 5% possibility and a 95% impossibility
and was characterized by the use of new and devastating based on the information from info1.
forms of warfare, as evidenced by the first large-scale use of
chemical weapons.
Event 4:
Given these circumstances, it is reasonable to infer that other
forms of warfare, such as aerial bombardments, would also Based on the information provided in info1, the possibility of
have been employed. Zeppelins, which were airships info2 ("The Zeppelin Raids on Turkey from January to October
primarily built in Germany, were used for bombing raids 1915") occurring is extremely low.
during World War I. As the capital and largest city of one of During World War I, Turkey was part of the Central Powers,
Germany's main adversaries, London would have been a likely aligned with Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Bulgaria.
target for these raids. Therefore, it wouldn't make sense for Germany, a key ally, to
Furthermore, the "Shell Crisis of 1915" mentioned in info1 conduct bombing raids on Turkey, particularly using
indicates that Britain was under significant pressure from the Zeppelins, which were a significant asset for the German
war, suggesting that attacks on the British home front, such military at the time.
as Zeppelin raids, were a real possibility.

Moreover, the info1 states that Germany and Turkey were in

Therefore, I would say the possibility of info2 happening fact fighting together against Russia on the Eastern Front in
based on info1 is 95%. The reason I don't say 100% is that 1915. This further supports the idea that Germany would not
there could always be unforeseen circumstances that might have conducted bombing raids on an ally during the same
have prevented these raids from occurring, such as technical period.
issues with the Zeppelins or changes in strategic priorities. Given this, I would say the possibility of info2 happening
So, I would say there is a 95% possibility and a 5% impossibility based on info1 is about 1%. This small percentage allows for
based on the information from info1. extremely unlikely scenarios or errors, such as a misdirected
Zeppelin causing unintended damage.
Conversely, there is a 99% probability that info2 would not
Event 3: occur based on info1 due to the alliance between Germany
Based on the information provided in info1, the possibility of and Turkey during World War I.
info2 ("The Zeppelin Raids on New Zealand from January to
October 1915") occurring is quite low.
Event 5: him news and items from the New World that ignited interest
and anticipation throughout Europe. This led to further
Based on the information provided in info1, the possibility of explorations and invasions, including Columbus' own Second
info2 ("Flight to Varennes in June 1791") occurring is highly Voyage, which set sail in September 1493.
probable.
I would say that info2 is 90% possible and 10% impossible. The
The French Revolution brought about significant social, 10% impossibility comes from the fact that there is always
political, and economic changes, as outlined in the connected some uncertainty in history. However, based on the
events of 1790. The abolition of the French nobility, the Civil information that I have, I believe that info2 is very likely to be
Constitution of the Clergy, and the suppression of monastic true.
vows all contributed to a radical shift in power dynamics and
societal structure, which would have put significant pressure
on King Louis XVI. The increasing radicalism of the Revolution
and the escalating hostility towards the monarchy provide a Event 2:
plausible context for Louis XVI's attempted escape. Based on the information you have provided, it is possible
Furthermore, the Flight to Varennes is a well-known historical that the Zeppelin Raids on London occurred in 1915. The
event directly associated with the French Revolution. It information you have provided about the events of 1915
marked a significant turning point where the constitutional shows that the war was having a significant impact on the
monarchy failed, and the radical phase of the Revolution world, and it is reasonable to assume that Germany would
began, leading to the establishment of the First French have been looking for ways to bring the war to the British
Republic. home front. The Zeppelin Raids were a way for Germany to
do this, and they did have a significant impact on civilian
Given these reasons, I would say the possibility of info2 morale. Additionally, the information you have provided
happening based on info1 is about 100%. The events and about the Great Retreat on the Eastern Front shows that
circumstances described in info1 align well with the known Germany was experiencing some setbacks in the war, and it
historical context leading up to King Louis XVI's attempted is possible that they would have been looking for ways to turn
escape in June 1791. the tide of the war. The Zeppelin Raids were a way for
Germany to do this, and they did have some success in
disrupting British operations.
Event 6:
Therefore, I believe that it is possible that the Zeppelin Raids
Based on the information provided in info1, the event on London occurred in 1915. The information you have
described in info2 ("Flight to Varennes in June 1791") is not provided does not definitively prove that they occurred, but
historically accurate as per my knowledge cutoff in it does provide some evidence to support the possibility.
September 2021.
The probability that the Zeppelin Raids on London occurred in
In the historical event known as the Flight to Varennes, King 1915 is about 70%. The remaining 30% of the probability is
Louis XVI of France did attempt to escape Paris in June 1791. due to the fact that the information you have provided is not
However, his attempt was not successful. He and his family definitive proof that the raids occurred.
were recognized and arrested in Varennes, a town near the
French border, and then returned to Paris. The failed escape
significantly damaged the king's credibility and the
monarchy's standing with the French public, leading to
increasing calls for a republic rather than a shift towards
monarchy.
While the events leading up to the flight are accurately Event 3:
represented in info1, the outcome of Louis XVI's attempted
escape as described in info2 is inconsistent with historical Based on the information provided, it is possible that there
records. Therefore, the possibility of the described outcome were Zeppelin raids on New Zealand in 1915. However, there
in info2 occurring, based on info1, is about 0%, given that it is no definitive evidence to support this claim.
contradicts the well-documented historical event. The information provided in info1 lists a number of events
that occurred in 1915 as a direct result of the start of World
War I. These events include the sinking of the Lusitania, the
AI answers for the events: Google Bard first large-scale use of chemical weapons, the Gallipoli
Campaign, the Shell Crisis of 1915, Italy joining the war, the
Event 1: Battle of Loos, and the Great Retreat on the Eastern Front.
Based on info1, I can reason that info2 is likely to be true. This Info2 states that there were Zeppelin raids on New Zealand in
is because the preparation of Columbus' Second Voyage was 1915. However, this event is not listed in info1. This suggests
a direct result of the success of his first voyage. After that there is no definitive evidence to support this claim.
Columbus returned to Spain in March 1493, he brought with
 I believe that the Flight to Varennes is a possible event that
could have happened in 1790. It is a plausible event given the
Event 4: circumstances of the time. I would rate the possibility of this
Based on the information provided, it is possible that there event happening as 80%.
were Zeppelin Raids on Turkey in 1915. The information
shows that Germany was using airships to bomb targets in
other countries during World War I, and Turkey was a Event 6:
member of the Central Powers, which were fighting against
Based on the information you have provided, I believe that
the Allies. It is therefore possible that Germany would have
the Flight to Varennes (info2) is not possible.
bombed Turkey in an attempt to weaken its ability to fight.
The Flight to Varennes was a major turning point in the French
However, there is no specific evidence that Zeppelin Raids did
Revolution. It showed that the king was not trustworthy, and
occur in Turkey in 1915. The information provided does not
that he was willing to flee the country rather than rule under
mention Turkey specifically, and there are no other historical
the new constitution. This event led to a decline in public
records that I can find that confirm the existence of these
support for the monarchy, and contributed to the
raids. Therefore, it is also possible that the Zeppelin Raids on
radicalization of the Revolution.
Turkey never happened.
Ultimately, the truth of the matter is unknown. There is
evidence to support both the possibility that the raids
happened and the possibility that they did not. Without more
information, it is impossible to say for sure what happened.
Probability of possibility: 60%
Probability of impossibility: 40%

Event 5:
Based on the information you have provided, I believe that
the Flight to Varennes is a possible event that could have
happened in 1790. The French Revolution was a time of great
change and upheaval, and it is not surprising that the king
would have tried to escape from Paris. The fact that he was
captured and returned to the city only served to further
alienate the people from the monarchy, and it is likely that
this event played a role in the eventual overthrow of the king.
Here are some reasons why I believe the Flight to Varennes is
possible:
The French Revolution was a time of great political and social
unrest. The people were angry with the monarchy and the
aristocracy, and they were demanding change.
King Louis XVI was a weak and indecisive leader. He was not
able to control the situation, and he was not popular with the
people.
The king had many enemies, both within and outside of
France. They were all waiting for an opportunity to overthrow
him.
The Flight to Varennes was a risky move, but it was not
impossible. The king had the support of some loyal followers,
and he had a plan to escape. However, things did not go
according to plan, and he was captured.
The Flight to Varennes was a turning point in the French
Revolution. It showed the people that the king was not
trustworthy, and it led to a shift towards republicanism. It is
likely that this event played a role in the eventual overthrow
of the king.