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Conditional Probability

The document discusses conditional probability, which measures the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already taken place. It distinguishes between independent and dependent events, providing examples and mathematical formulations, including Bayes' theorem. The text emphasizes that conditional probability is essential in understanding the relationship between events and can be applied to multiple events.

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Conditional Probability

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groovestudy46

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Conditional Probability

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Conditional Probability

Although random events characterize life, they are either independent or dependent.

Independent events do not rely on each other to occur; for instance, tossing a fair coin. Chances

of getting either the head or the tails are independent events with a 50% chance each.

Conversely, dependent events are congruent - one event relies on another having transpired to

occur; for instance, the chances of taking out a colored marble from a bag with two red marbles

and three blue marbles changes with each removal. Conditional probability is one of the most

fundamental probability theories. Conditionally probable events do not need to exhibit a causal

relationship or co-occur to qualify as dependent events. Conditional probability is one of the

most fundamental and vital probability theories that measures the possibility of an event

transpiring provided another event (presumptively, assumptively assertively, or evidently) has

occurred already.

Conditional probability measures the chances of one event occurring, provided another

event has already occurred. The conditional probability of an event F occurring contingent on an

event G having already occurred is the probability of G given F, written as P(G|F) (Blitzstein &

Hwang, 2019). Therefore, P(G|F) is the product of F’s probability and the probability of G

divided by the F’s probability itself. Related to Bayes’ theorem, the conditional probability of an

event G contingent on event F is denoted thus:

P ( F ∩G)
P(G|F) =
P( F)

Where

P(G|F) is the conditional probability of an event G transpiring provided an event F has

occurred already

P(F∩G) is the probability that both events F and G occur.

P(F) is the probability of an event F.

The equation is only valid when P(F) is more than zero.

For instance, in a card game where a player must draw two cards of the same suit to win

the game, if the player draws diamonds in the first draw, the chances of drawing the second

diamond from the remaining suit of 12 cards will be:

P (Draw a second diamond| first diamond)

=12/51

In the first draw, the player drew a diamond leaving 12 diamonds to draw from in the

second draw

As such, the chances of a second draw being diamonds depends on the first draw being a

diamond, which explains why the second draw is out of 12 (contingent on the first draw)

Conditional probability also applies to more than two events. In such cases, one must

consider the probability of all preceding events. For instance, in the case of three events

P (F and G and H) = P(F) P(G|F) P (H| F and G) (Steyer & Nagel, 2017). For example, if a

student determines that he or she has an 80% chance of acceptance into college, the school may

only provide dormitory housing to 60% of these accepted students. Out of those with dormitory

housing, 80% of them have a probability of getting a roommate. Therefore, this student’s chance

of getting accepted, receiving dormitory housing, and not having a roommate is:

P (Acceptance and Dormitory Housing and Without Roommates) = P(Acceptance) P

(Dormitory housing| Acceptance) P (Without Roommates| Dormitory Housing and

Acceptance)

= (0.80) x (0.60) x (0.20)

= 0.096
4

=Therefore, the student has about a 0.10 or 10% chance of getting a room alone in

college.