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Ch13

The document provides an overview of probability concepts including events, conditional probability, independence of events, and various probability rules such as Bayes’ Theorem and the Multiplication Rule. It also introduces random variables and their probability distributions, along with practice exercises and assertion-reason questions related to these topics. The content is structured to aid in understanding and applying probability in different scenarios.

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Ch13

The document provides an overview of probability concepts including events, conditional probability, independence of events, and various probability rules such as Bayes’ Theorem and the Multiplication Rule. It also introduces random variables and their probability distributions, along with practice exercises and assertion-reason questions related to these topics. The content is structured to aid in understanding and applying probability in different scenarios.

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mohinsharma628
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13 Probability Fastracl« Revision >» Probability of an Event: Ina random experiment, let Sbe the random space and let Fc S. Then £ is an event. The probability of occurrence of £ is defined as: pe) Number of outcomesfavourable tof _n(E) Number of allpossibleoutcomes a(S) > Conditional Probability Suppose Eand Fare two events associated with the same random experiment, then the probability of occurrence of E under the condition that Fhas already occurred and (F)#0,{scalled conditional probability, denoted by P(E/F) > Properties of Conditional Probability PE nF) where Pica > PLE/F) = PF) here, P(F) 20. > pcre) =FEOP, where, P(E) #0 > P(E'YF)=1-PE/F) > PILE UFYC]=PLE/<) + P(F/C)~PL(E MFC) > (S/F) =PLF/F > Two events Eand F associated to a random experiment are independent, if the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of Els not affected by the occurrence or non-occurrence of F. > Let E and F be two events associated with the same random experiment, then E and F are sald to be independent if P(E nF) =P(E)-P(F), > IF Eand F are independent events, then PLE MF) =P(E):P(F)= PEF) = P(E), P(F) 20 and P(F/E) =P(F),P(E) #0 > Multiplication Rule of Probability > ENF) =P(E)-P(F/E), provided P(E) #0 (F)-PLE/F), provided P(F) #0 > Theorem of Total Probability: Let (6, £2, E3..Ea) be a partition of sample spaces and suppose that each of E;, Ezy By «4 Ey has non-zero probabllity. Let Abe any ‘event associated with 5, then P(A)=P(E,)-PUA/E;) + PCE.) -P(A/E2) + = ZPlep-eare, + PlE,)-PUA/E,) > Bayes’ Theorem: IF EE, Es, o£, are events which constitute a partition of sample space 5, le, E,, E>, E3y = Eq are palrwise disjoint and E, UE, UE, U... UE, =5 and Abe any event with non-zero probability, then PAE,[A)=PED PALE) for anyin1,2,3, Een PALE) 1M. > Arandom variable is areal valued Function, whose domain Is the sample space of a random experiment. > Probability Distribution of a Random Varlable ‘description giving the values of a random variable along with the corresponding probabilities is called the probability distribution of the random variable. If a random variable X takes the values x4, 2.) X9 with respective probabilities pr, p,.., Po then the probability distribution of Xis given by x He 2 x 2 Xo P(x) PB. Pe PL = Po where, p;>0 and 9°, » Let Xbea random variable whose possible valuesare x, x, you Xq wlth probabiltles py, Pp, Pay ns Py Fespectively. The mean y of X is glven by )’p)%, It Is also called the i ‘expectation of x, denoted by £(X). ledge BOOSTER 1, P(AUB)=P(A)+P(8)-P(ANB) \ 2. P(AUB)+ PAB) =1 © 2 3. PA’ nB))=1- PAU) gS Practice Exercise -Q Multiple choice Questions + 7 Q1. IF P(A)=2 and P(ArB)=Z than P(B/A) is equal to: (ucenrexenrpuan; case 2023) 1 1 7 7 at bt ot ae io a a 20 2, For two events Aand B, if P(A) = 0.4, P(6) = 0.8and P(B/ A)=0.6 then P(AW B)is: (case 2023) a0 b03 cO48 4.096 2 3 id 3. IF P(A)=> P(B)=— and eo th 99. PA)=2 P (B= and PmB)== then (cen exenpuRy at P.(A'/B’ )-P (B'/A' is equal to: az be of. é 7 ad ee ee EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET Q4. The events £ and F are independent. If P(E) =03 and P(E UF) =05, then P(E / F)—P(F / E) equals: (CSSE 2023; NCERT EXEMPLAR) 1 a eZ 1 7 7 5 70 6. If A and B are two independent events such that P(A) =. 2 and P(6) = then P(B'/A) is: a (case 2023) a a c ai 1 a a 6. Given two independent events A and B such that P(A) =03, P(B)=0.6 and P (AnB" )is: (case sop 2022-23) aog b.018 0.28 0.01 Q7. If A and B are events such that P (A)=0.4, P(B)=03 and P(AUB)=05, then P (BA) equals to: (wcenr exensevan) az bt 4 ae 3 z a 5 QB. HA and @ are two events such that P(6)=3, P (A/a) = and P (AUB) =4, then P (A)equalsto: (ucenrexenan 3 1 1 3 ad er eee 0 5 2 5 if 4 9. If P(B)=3, P(A/B) => and P(AUB)=4, then Q (=> PA/B)=> Mus)=5 tl P (AUB) +P (A'UB)is equal to: wcenrexeniPLan) al bt el ay 5 5 2 7 9 4 10. If P(A)=—, P(B) id P (AB) =——, ther Q Adazp Pha and PNB) a, then P (4'/B) is equal to: (WcenrexenseLan) 6 4 4 5 ak bt ce ab 3B 5 3 3 QM. fA and be two events such that P (A)=3 P@)=Zand P(AUB)=3, then P(A/8)-P (4/8) is equal to: (wcenr exentpLan) 2 3 3 6 az b2 eZ af 5 8 20 B 12, If Zand F are events such that 0

0,i =1, 2, Let E be any other event with 0P(E/H,)xP(H,) for i=4,2, Reason (R): ° P(H,)=4 ft Assertion (A): An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. ball is dravm at random, its colour is noted andis returned to the um. Moreover, 2 additional balls of the colour drawn are put in the urn and then a ball is drawn at random. Then, the probability that the second ball is red sh Reason (R):A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls, another bag contains 2 red and 6 black balls. One of the two bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from the bag which is found to be red. Then, the probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag is 3 Assertion (A): The mean of a random variable X is also called the expectation of X, denoted by E(X). Reason (R): The mean or expectation of arandom variable X is not sum of the probabilities of all possible values of X by their respective probabilities. Assertion (A): The mean number of head: tosses of a fair coin is 1.5. Reason (R): Two dice are thrown simultaneously. IfX denotes the number of sixes, the expectation of Xis = 3 three Answers 1@Q 20 80 46 8 6 7 B86) 8 10 1.) 12@ 124 40 160 60 176 86 1921 200 21. (6) 22.0) 23. (0) 28 () 25.) 28) 27.2) -2BL(C) BH). © 30.) 3.) 23) BHD = 35.) 38.) 37.) 38.0). 40.) 41.) 42. (o) EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET @) Case Study Based Questions COVID PCR test, and the pathologist reports him/her a as COVID positive Case Study 1 The reliability of a COVID PCR testis specified as follows: Of people having COVID, 90% of the test detects the disease but 10% goes undetected. Of people free of COVID, 99% of the test is judged COVID negat but 1% are diagnosed as showing COVID positive. From a large population of which only 0.1% have COVID, one person is selected at random, given the ee Based on the given information, solve the following questions: 1. What is the probability of the ‘person to be tested as COVID positive’ given that ‘he is actually having coviD? aooo) bor coe do9 2. What is the probability of the ‘person to be tested as COVID positive’ given that ‘he is actually not having COVID? aon} 6099 cor ooo 3. What is the probability that the ‘person is actually not having COVID'? 20998 b.0999 coon dom 9.4. What is the probability that the ‘person is actually having COVID' given that ‘he is tested as COVID positive’? 2083 6.00803 0083 0089 5. What is the probability that the ‘person selected will be diagnosed as COVID positive’? 2.01089 b.0.01089 «0999 So, option (b) is correct 4, Probability that the person is actually having COVID given that he is tested as COVID positive PIE) xP| aoe, mrenae(2}-P(€.)-A( 2) ae 19086 TE x90% + 999% ve 1x90 "01x907999x) Required probability = 0083 So. option (c) is correct. 5. Probability that the person selected will be diagonosed as COVID positive P(A)=P(E) (2) nies)se( 2) = 01% «90% +. 99.9% ve1%6 so_, 9991089 “0000 * 7a0000 ~ 1oo00G So, option (b) Is correct. Case Study 2 = 001089 An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two classes: those who are accident prone and those who are not. The company’s statistics show that an accident-prone person will have an accident at sometime within a fixed one-year period with probability 0.6, whereas this probability is 0.2 for a person who is not accident prone. The company knows that 20 per cent of the population is accident prone. Based on the above information, solve the following questions: (case sop 2022 Term2) (Q1. What is the probability that a new policyholder will have an accident withina year of purchasing a policy? 2. Suppose that a new policyholder has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy. What is the probability that he or she is accident prone? ca Solutions . 1. Let €)= The policy holder Is accident prone. E = The policy holder is not accident prone. E =The new poticy holder has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy. P(E) = P(E,) xP(E/E,) + (Ez) xP(E/E,) 20,2 80 280 7 {0 “i00" 10 “100” 1000" 25 2. By Bayes’ theorem, pte fe) =P acre Case Study 3 A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds Ay, A, Aj. They are sold in the form of a mixture, where the proportions of these seeds are 4: 4: 2, respectively. The germination rates of the three types, of seeds are 45%, 60% and 35% respectively. Based on the above information, solve the following questions (c0s€S07 2022 Term-2) Q1. Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen seed will germinate. 2. Calculate the probaility that the sedis of type Az, given that a randomly chosen seed germinates. Case Study 4 There are two antiaircraft guns, name as A and B. The probabilities that the shell fired from them hits an airplane are 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. Both of them fired one shell at an airplane at the same time. Based on the above information, solve the following questions. (case sop 2022-23) Q1. What is the probability that the shell fired from exactly one of them hit the plane? 2. Ifit is known that the shell fired from exactly one of them hit the plane, then what is the probability that it was fired from B? e Solutions - 1. We have, Ay:Az:Ag = 4:4:2 4 4 2 =a P (An) = FG andP (As) = where Ay Az and Az denote the three types of flower seeds, Let € be the event that a seed germinates. P(E) = P(A\):P(A/E,) P(Az)-P(A/E2) + P(43)-P(A/ Es) oA, 400, 2 38 "io "100" "oo = 499 Lo49 ioo0 A P(Az)-P(E/ Az) 2 (2) mame P(E / Az)+ P(Ag)P(E / A) (By Baye's theorem} 10 “too * io “00 * 10 “100 240/1000 430/1000 ) | | | ) | | ) | | pte ) | ) | ) | ) | ) ) Solutions ° 1. P(Shell fired from exactly one of them hits the plane) ‘=P ((Ghell from ahits the plane and shell framadoes not hit the plane) or (shell from A does not hit the plane and shell from B hits the plane)) =03x08+07x02=024+ 014-038, 2. P Ghell fired from hit the plane/Exactly one of them hit the plane) P (hell fired from Bhit the plane Exactly one of them hit the plane) - P (Exactly one of them hit the plane) P (Shell from only @ hit the plane) P (Exactly one of them hit the plane) fe P(A m8) = PCA) xP(6) = (1-03) x02 = 014) Case Study 5 A building contractor undertakes a job to construct 4 flats on a plot alongwith parking area. Due to strike the probability of many construction workers not being present for the job is 0.65. The probability that many are not present and still the work gets completed on time is 0.35. The probability that work will be completed on time when all workers are present is 0.80. Let E\: represent the event when many workers were not present for the job E: represent the event when all workers were present and E : represent completing the construction work on time, (cBs€2023) ee Based on the above information, solve the following questions: 1. What is the probability that all the workers are present for the job? 92. What is the probability that construction will be completed on time? 93. What is the probability that many workers are not present given that the construction work is completed on time? or What is the probability that all workers were present given that the construction job was completed on time? EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET Solutions * ©) caasolE £)-0sse(E)- os e(E)-asse(E) ono P(E) =1-065 =035 2. P(E) =P(E;) xP| E) srtearr é) =065 x035 +035 x80 =02275 +028 = 05075 3. p(£) 2035 Ey, p{£) -o80 E2 or Case Study 6 In an office three employees James, Sophia and Oliver process incoming copies of a certain form. James processes 50% of the forms, Sophia process 20% and Oliver the remaining 30% of the forms. James has an error rate of 0.06, Sophia has an error rate of 0.04 and Oliver has an error rate of 0.03. Based on the above information, solve the following questions: (cose sop 2023-24) Q1. Find the probability that Sophia processed the form and committed an error. 2. Find the total probability of committing an error processing the form. (3. The manager of the company wants to doa quality check. During inspection, he selects a form at random from the days output of processed form. If the form selected at random has an error, find the probability that the form is not processed by James. Or Let E be the event of committing an error in processing the form and let E, , E, and E, be the events that James, Sophia and Oliver processed the form. Find the value of )” P(E, / E). P= Solutions * Given P(J) = 50% P(S) = 20% P(0)=30 2 (5) o0s.o(£) 004 ande(£) aoa 7 5 3 1. Probability that Sophia processed the form and committed an error = P(S)P| 5) 3,004 0008 5 2. The total probability of committing an error In pracessing the form : eune( 5} Pcse(£) +P(0) a(S) 1.006 +2004 +2.003 5 i0 2 =003+0008 +0009 =0047 3. Probability that an error Is committed by james In processing, Oem e +Pes)e(= +P(O)P| “goa "a7 "7 . Required probability that error was not processed by lames =1-P(2) 3017 ; vtey-#(E) srte,)-0( ©) sates £) Es neve(E) ' mee] ' mei(E) ee Qn Q2 a3. 94. a6. a6. 7. a8. a9. Quo. an. 12. 12. qu. y Very Short Answer Type Questions Let A, and 8 be two events Puy=3, (a) =4 and P(A/ B) => 2 4 of P(B/ A). such that ind the value (case 2022 rem2) A pair of dice is thrown and the sum of the rnumbers appearing on the the dice is observed to be 7. Find the probability that the number 5 has appeared on atleast onedie. _(c0s¢2022Term2) The probabilities of A and B solving a problem independently are and respectively. If both of them try to solve the problem independently. What is the probability that the problem is solved? ‘The probability that A hits the target is and the 2 5 targetindependently, find the probability thatthe targetisit. (case2022tern2) if E and F are two events such that PlE)=0.6 P(F)=03 and P(E VF) =0.2. Find the values of P(E/F) and P(F/E). (cent exenese 5 snaa(4) a2 Find P(A 8) 294A) = (a) = and e(4)-2 Aand Bare two independent events. If P(A) = 0.3, P(8)=0.4, then find (i) P(A), (i) PUB). Suppose A and B are independent events, such that P(A) = 05and P(8)= 04 then ind P 4) probability that 8 hits - If both try to hit the (cenrexencise WW PUY=S, lB)=F and PIALB)=2. Are the events Aand B independent? If Aand Bare two independent events then prove that the probability of occurrence of at least one of Aand Bis given by 1-P(A') P(B’). (cen EXERCISE) ‘Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards one-by-one without replacement, What is the probability of getting first card red and second card Jack? (C8S€0P 2022 Term-2) Three distinct numbers are chosen randomly from the first 50 natural numbers. Find the probability that all the three numbers are te by both 2 and 3. (case 2020) If P (not A) =0.7, P(B)= 0.7 and P(B/A) =05, then find P(A/B). (case 2019) If P(A) =0.4, P(B) =p, P(AUB)=0.6 and A and B are given to be independent events, find the value ofp. (case 2017) Short Answer type-1 Questions 1. A,room has three lamp sockets. From a collection of 10 light bulbs of which only 6 are defective, three bulbs are selected at random and placed in the socket. What is the probability that there will be light in the room? (92. Find [P(B/A) + P(A/B)], if P(A) = 3 2 , P(8) = and (8) =Zan 10 (wceRT EXEMPLAR; C8SE2020) P(AUB) =: 5 3. A black and a red die are rolled together. Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8, given that the red die resulted in a number less than 4, (c85E2018) 04, Ten cards numbered 1 to 10 are placed in a box after thoroughly mixing. One card is drawn from the box at random. If itis known that the number on the card is more than 3 then find the probability that this number is even number. 5. A couple has 2 children. Find the probability that both are boys, if itis known that (i) one of them is a boy, (ii) the older child is a boy. 6. From a pack of 52 playing cards, two are drawn one byone. After drawing they are not returned to the pack again, then find the probability of both cards to the betel. Q7. Given two independent events A and B such that P(A)= 0.3 and P(B) =0.6, find P(A’ 8 ).(cBs€2020) Q8. A die marked 4, 2, 3 in red and 4, 5, 6 in green is tossed. Let A be the event “number is even" and 8 be the event “number is marked red". Find whether the events A and 8 are independent or not. (case2019,17) (9. Prove that if £and F are independent events, then, the events £ and F’ are also independent. (WceRT exERCISe; C8se2017) Q10. A can hit a target 4 times in 5 shots, 8 3 times in 4 shots and C 2 times in 3 shots, Find the probability that target will be hit. QM. There are 4 red and 5 black balls in a bag A In another bag B there are 6 red and 3 black balls. One red ball is taken from bag A and transferred to bag B. After this one ball is taken from bag 8, find the probability of that to be red. ‘A speaks truth in 80% cases and B speaks truth in 90% cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely to agree with each other in stating the same fact? 12. ee EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET 13. ia. 916. Q16. qu. q1a. a1. 20. Three persons A,B and C, fire at a target in turn, starting with A. Their probability of hitting the target are 0.4, 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. Find the probability of two hits. (NCERTEXENPLAR) A refrigerator box contains 2 milk chocolates and, 4 dark chocolates. Two chocolates are drawn at random. Find the probability distribution of the number of milk chocolates. What.is the most likely outcome? ‘A bag contains 1 red and 3 white balls. Find the probability distribution of the number of red balls if 2 balls are drawn at random from the bag one-by-one without replacement. (CBSE Sop 2022 Term-2) Two balls are drawn at random from a bag containing 2 red balls and 3 blue balls, without replacement. Let the variable X denotes the number of red balls. Find the probability of X. (€8SE2022 Tera2) Two Cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well shuffled pack of 52 Cards. Find the probability distribution of the (c08e2022 Yerm2) number of spade cards. Abiased die i are equally likely. The di the ‘number of four obtai There are 4 cards numbered 1, 3, 5 and 7, one number on one card. Two cards are drawn at random without replacement. Let X denote the sum of the numbers on the two drawn cards. Find the mean of X. (case 2017) Find the mean of the number obtained on a throw of an unbiased die. (weenr exercise) ‘@ Short Answer type-ti Questions Qt a2. There are 4 white and 3 black balls in a bag. In these ball drawn ane by one without replacement then find the probability that first ball is white, second ball is black, third ball is white, fourth ball is black, fifth ball is white, sixth ball is black and seventh ball is white. In a class 40% students read Mathematics, 20% read Biology and 10% read both Mathematics and Biology. One student is selected at random. Find the probability that: {i) he reads Mathematics, when it is know that he reads Biology. (ji) he reads Biology when it is known that he reads Mathematics. a3. 04. 08. 06. Q7. Qa, Qa. Qo. Qu. From integers 1 to 11 two integers are selected at random. If their sum is even, then find the probability that both integers are odd Three friends go for coffee. They decide who will pay the bill, by each tossing a coin and then letting the ‘odd person’ pay. There is no odd person fall three tosses produce the same result. If there is no odd person in the first round, they ‘make a second round of tosses and they continue to do so until there is an odd person. What is the probability that exactly three rounds of tosses are made? (8st Sop 2022-23) ‘Suppose that 5 men out of 100 and 25 women out (0F 1000 are good orators. Assuming thatthere are equal number of men and women, find the probability of choosing a good orator. ‘Abag A contains 4 black and 6 red balls and bag 8 contains 7 black and 3 red balls. A die is thrown. If 4 or 2 appears on it, then bag A is chosen, otherwise bag B. If two balls are drawn at random (without replacement) from the selected bag, then find the probability of one of them being red and another black. A bag contains (2n-+1) coins. It is known that (1-1) of these coins have a head on both sides, whereas the rest of the coins are fair. A coin is, picked up at random from the bag and is tossed. IF the probability that the toss results in a head is, 3 determine the value of n. _(NCERTEXEWPLAR) Three machines E, ,£) and E, in a certain factory producing electric bulbs, produce 50%, 25% and 25% respectively, of the total daily output of electric bulbs, It is known that 4% of the bulbs produced by each of machines & and E, are defective and that 5% of those produced by machine E; are defective. If one bulb is picked up at random from a day's production, calculate the probability that itis defective. wcenrexenpcaty Ina bag there are 5 red, 4 black and 3 white balls. If one by one three balls are taken out and not again returned to the bag, then find the probability that all the three balls drawn are red. Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards. What is the probability that first two cards are kings and the third card drawn is an ace? (nicenr exercise) Aand Bare two independent events. Prove that: (i) 4 and & will also be independent events (i) P(B/A)=P(B/A')=P(8) (ncenr exempum ee EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET qi qi. Qu. 16. Q16. qv. 018. Q19. ‘Aman is known to speak truth 7 out of 10 times. He threw a pair of dice and reports that doublet appeared. Find the probability that it was actually adoublet. (€BS€2022 Tera2) ‘A person A speaks truth in 70% of the cases while second person Bspeaks truth in 80% of the cases. Find the probability that in what percentage of cases they wil (agree (ii) oppose to each other, for the same statement of fact. Aand B throwa pair of dice alternately. A wins the game if he gets.a total of 9 and 8 wins if he gets a total of 7. If Astarts the game, find the probability of winning the game by 8. Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets 1 or 2, she tosses a coin three times and notes the number of tails. If she gets 3, 4, 5 or 6, she tosses a coin once and notes whether a ‘head’ or ‘tail’ is obtained. If she obtained exactly one ‘tail, what is the probability that she threw 3, 4, 5 or 6 with the die? (c8se 2018) Ina shop X, 30 tins of ghee of type A and 40 tins of ghee of type B which look alike, are kept for sale. While in shop Y, similar 50 tins of ghee of type A and 60 tins of ghee of type Bare there. One tin of ghee is purchased from one of the randomly selected shop and is found to be of type &. Find the probability that it is purchased from shop Y. (c#SE 2020, 17) Of the students in a school, itis known that 30% have 100% attendance and 70% students are irregular. Previous year results report that 70% of all students who have 100% attendance attain A grade and 10% irregular students attain A grade in their annual examination. At the end of the year, one student is chosen at random from the schooland he was found to have an A grade. What is the probability that the student has 100% attendance? Is regularity required only in school? Justify your answer. (case 2017) AA factory has two machines A and 8. Past record shows that machine A produced 60% of the items of output and machine B produced 40% of the items further 2% of the items produced by machine A and 1% produced by machine B were defective. All the items are put into one stock and then one item is chosen at random from this and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was produced by machine A? (cenr exercise) Often itis taken that a truthful person commands, ‘more respect in the society. A man is known to speak the truth 4 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six. (case 2017) 920. gan gz. 923. Q24, 926. 026. 27. Given three identical boxes |, I and Ill, each containing two coins. In box!, both are gold coins, in box Il, both are silver coins and in box Il, there is one gold and one silver coin. Apperson chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If coin is of gold, what isthe probability that the other coin in tthe box is also of gold? (uceRT EXERCISE) A patient travels to a doctor by train, bus, scooter or any other means of transport whose aa 3, ae, Fe Probabilities are = 3, 75 oF g respectively. If he bus or scooter, he reaches late For respectivel Fg er He reaches on time if he travels by any other means of transport. If he reached late, find the probability of his coming by train, The random variable X has a_ probability distribution P(X) of the following form, where ‘i is some real number: travels by trai and their probabilities are kif x20 pure) 2hrif x=4 00 st, it 0, otherwise (i) Determine the value of k. (cese2019) (i) Find P(X <2) (ii) Find PX >2) (cose sop 2023-24) ‘The random variable X can take only the values 0, 4, 2, 3. Given that PQ) = PQ) = and P(0) = 2P(1). If P,x? =22P,x,, find the value of p. (c9se2017) A coin is biased so that the head is three times as likely to occur as tail. If the coin is tossed twice, find the probability distribution of number of tails. Hence, find the mean of the number of tails. Find the mean number of defective items in a sample of two items drawn one-by-one without replacement from an urn containing 6 items, which include 2 defective items. Assume that the items are identical in shape and size. (cuse sop 2022-28) From a lot of 30 bulbs which include 6 defective bulbs, a sample of 2 bulbs is drawn at random one by one with replacement. Find the probability distribution of the number of defective bulbs and hence find the mean number of defective bulbs. (cose 2023) ‘Two fair dice are thrown simultaneously. If X denotes the number of sixes, find the mean of X. (case 2023) 1. Given, P(A) = 2 and P(6) = 928. Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from the first five positive integers. Let X denotes the larger of the two numbers obtained. Find the mean of X. (case 2018) 0.29. Thereare 4 cards numbered 1 to 4, one number on. ‘one card. Two cards are drawn at random without replacement. Let X denote the sum of the numbers fon the two drawn cards. Find the mean of X. ® Long Answer type Questions Q1. Inanswering a question on a multiple choice test, student ether knows the answer or guesses. Let 3 be the probability that he knows the answer and Ze the probability that he guesses. Assuming that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability > What is the probability that the student knows the answer, given that he answered it correctly. (case 2023) Q2.A and B are two independent events. The probability of their simultaneously occurrence is : and the probability of their simultaneously non-occurrence isd Find the probabilities of the occurrence of A and B separately. 93. A manufacturer has three machine operators A,B and C. The first operator A produces 1% of defective items, whereas the other two operators a4 Q6. B and C produces 5% and 7% defective items respectively. Ais on the job for 50% of time, 8 on. the job 30% of the time and C on the job for 20% of the time. All the items are put into one stockpile and then one item is chosen at random. from this and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was produced by A? (case 2019) ‘An urn contains 4 balls. Two balls are drawn at random from the urn (without replacement) and are found to be white. What is the probability that all the four balls in the um are white. 3. A box contains 10 tickets, 2 of which carry a prize of @ Beach, 5 of which carry a prize of @ 4each and remaining 3 carry a prize of %Zeach. fone ticket is. drawn at random, find the mean value of the prize. (case 2023) Let a pair of dice be thrown and the random variable X be the sum of the numbers that appear ‘on the two dice. Find the mean or expectation of x (ucerrexencise) Q7. Two cards are drawn simultaneously (or Qa. Three numbers are selected at random (1 Very Short Answer Type Questions Also, Total ways for numbers on the dle for the sum to be 7 =((0.6). (6.1) (2.5). (5.2). (3.4). (4.3) Thus. there are 6 ways possible for the sum to be 7. Here, favourable cases = (2.5). (5. 2)) So, out of these six ways, there are 2 ways where Sis ane of the outcome. Thus, required probability = 1 Pa 3 4, successively without replacement) from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the mean of the number of kings. (case 2019) out replacement) from first six positive integers, If X denotes the smallest of the three numbers ‘obtained, find the probability distribution of xX. ‘Also, find the mean of the distribution. Given, and ——P(6") =1-P(8)= a4 TRICK The probability that the problem is solved robability that none of them solved the problem. Required probability = 1-P(A’)-P(8") «1 “34272 Given, _P(A)=P (Ais the target) = P(6)=P (@hits target) = Now, P(AUB)=P (target will be hit by either A or &) = (AUB) = P(A)+P(B)-P(AnB) = (AUB) = P(A) + P(B) -P(A)-P(8) (:Aand are independent) 546-29 3 “BS 5. Plein) PEE 02. and ateye) =e RS) Bt 6 Given, 2°(A)=PtB)= 3 = Paes and P(@)=3 and (4) 2 ptane)-(2) P(@) 2.5. (AUB) =P(A)+P(B)-P(An8) 3 7. () Aand Bare twa independent events P(AmB)=P(A)-P(6)=03 x04 =012 (i) (AUB) =P(A)-P(B)-P(AnB) =03+04-012=058 8. Given, P(A) =03 and P(8)=0.4 ‘When and Bare independent events, P(AMB) = P(A)xP(6)=03 «0.4 =a12 (4) meas a2 3 6)" Pe) 04 0 12. There are only 8 numbers in first 50 natural ‘numbers, which are divisible both 2 and 3, Le. 6. 6.12.18... 48 TRICK Anumber divisible by both 2 and 3 ie.,LCM (2,3) = 6 Now, total number of possible outcames Favourable number of outcomes =' ee So, required probability = ic, 8x7x6 =o 5x9 x40 350 Bx2at 12. Given, (not ) =0.7=P(A) and P(6)=07 P(A) =1-P(A)=1-07=03 Also given,P(B/A)=05 (Ans) =P(4)-P(B/A) =03x05 = 015 PAnB) O15 15 _ 3 so, playa) =r) 9162 14, Given, P(A) =0.4,P(8) = p and P(AUB) =06 P(AuB) =P(A)+P(6) -P(AnB) [Byaddition theorem of probability) ‘A)+ (6) -P(AUB) 4+ p-O6=p-02 * P(AnB) Since, A and Bare independent events, TiP P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B| (ANB) P(A 8) =P(A)+P(8)-P(AUB) 1,12 342-4 1 6 6 while P(A)-P(@) <4 3°76 le, P(A)-P(@)=P(AnB) Events A and Bare independent. TiP Theeventsore independentifand oniyif Pans) =P) Pa), P(A)-P(8) = P(An8) > 4 xp =p-02 = p-U4p=02 = sp =02 a2_1 a673 10. Probability of non-occurrence of any of the events A Short Answer Type-1 Questions and =P(A’n8') = P(AUB) =1-P(AvB) (P(4) +P(6)-P(An8)) =1-(P(4)+P(6) -P(A)-P(S)) (: Aand Bare Independent events) =1-P(A)-P(B)(I-P(A)) =(I-P(A))(-P(6)) =P(A')P(6') Therefore, the probability of occurrence of atleast ‘one of Aor =1-P(A’) P(6"). Hence proved. 11. The required probability ‘=P [(The first Is a red jack card and the second Is a jack card) or (The first is a red non-jack card and the second is a jack-card)) 23,244 1 "52 5251" 26 1. Number of bulbs =10 Number of selection of 3 bulbs out of 10 = "C3 Now, given that 6 bulbs are defective, then 4 bulbs are good Probabilty that there will be no light In the room = Probability of selection of three defective bulbs 6! 6c, i 6! 317! 7,3 Tr m7 x54, 3x21 “ge “19x86 Probability that there will be light in the room = 1-Probability that there will beno light in the room 5 PEE EEE EEE EEE EEE EEE IEEE EIDE IE III EI III IDI II II II II II II IIE EE ET and (Aus) P(AUB) =P(A)+P(8)-P(An8) P(AnB) =P(A)+P(8)-P(AUB) 03+04-06 =07-06=01 (BA) , P(AMB) P(A) P(e) aor 117 Now, P(B/A)+ P(A/8) = 3. Let the first observation be from the black die and ssecond from the red die. When two dice (one black and another red) are rolled. the sample space (5) has 6 x6=36 number of elements. €: Sum of the observation Is 8 = {(2. 6). (3.5). (4.4). (6.3). (6.2)) F :Red dle resulted in a number less than 4 (1.1. (1.2). (1. 3). (2 0) (2. 2), (2.3)... .2).(3.3). (4.1). (4.2). 4.3). (5.0. (5.2). (5. 3). (6.1). (6. 2). (6.3) Ear ={(5.3).(6.2)) 1 Now, P(F) = and P(E F) 36 18 The conditional probability of obtaining the sum ‘equal to 8. given that the red die resulted in a number less than 4, is given by P(E/F). PENA) 2/86 2 ot Therefore, P(E/F)= “pert P= das ERROR ‘Students get confused in deciding whether to find P(A/8) or P(B/A). So, more practice is required. 4, Let E = event that the number on the card Is more than 3 TiP Lear the concepts of conditional probability and its copplications. and F = event that the number on the card Is even Here, n(s)=10 €=(4,5,6,7.8.9,10) > —n(€)=7 F=(2.4,6,8,10) = n(F)a5 EnF =(4, 6.8.10) = nlEAF)=4 Now, P(F/E) = probability that the number Is even \when It fs known that itis more than 3. PEF OE) 4/0 4 PE) 70-7 * By Demorgan’s law, (OB) =An BAB) = AUB, * P(E) +P(E)=1 * By addition theorem of probability, 5. Given, a couple has 2 children, then sample space (5)= (88.6 6,.6,8.6,6,) where 8, and G, are the older boy and girt respectively. Let €=both the children are boys. E <0ne of the children is a boy. 3 =the alder child sa boy. PE) RPE) PEE na)= and PIE Es)= Ene) i) P(E Ey) = PEE a) 6 te e,)= AEE , PEE) V4.1 OPES)" Bley “27472 6. Let Event A frst card of betel Event 8: second card of betel Probability of getting ist card of betel P(a)= a1 (Number ofbetel cards=13) R24 Remaining cards: betel cards =12, total cards = 51 - Probability of getting secand card of betel. 4 (8) mat a) a7 Hence, required probability (both cards to be betel) P(AnB)= m(aye(2) a7 7 7. Given that, (A) = 03 and (8) = 06 Since, A and 8 are twa independent events, TRICKS: P(AUB)=P(A) + P(8)-P ANB). P(AnB) = P(A)-P(6)=03 x06 =018 So, P(A'N")=1-P (nd) =1-P(AUB) (P(A) +P(6)-P(A 8) =1-(03+06-018)=1~(09 -018) -09 + O16 =118-09=028 When a dle Is thrown, the sample space is: 5=(1.2.3.4.5,6) = n(5)=6 ‘Also, A Number Is even and Bt number is red Ax(2,4,6},8={1.2.3) and An8=(2} = n(A)=3.n(8) =3 and Now, and ee PEE EEE EEE EEE EEE EEE IEEE EIDE IE III EI III IDI II II II II II II IIE EE ET © If Eand F are independents events, then P(EMF)= P(E) PIF) © IE and F are dependents events, then P(EMF)# P(E) -P(F) Now, P(A) xP(8) -t de}e z-P(4 na) PAB) #P(A)-P(B) Thus. A and B are not independent events. 9. Since, € and F are independent events. P(E mF) =P(E)-P(F) () t a) : (enP) cho (enn it fs clear from the following Venn dlagram that events E mF and nF’ are mutually exclusive and E=(EnF) UEnF’) EF and mF are mutually exclusive PIE) = PE nF) + P(E MF”) (E)-P(E nF) =P(E)-PIE)-P(F)—(Fromeq.(}) (E) (1-P(F)) = P(E) PEF") [e P(F)+P(F')=1) Hence, € and Fare independent events. Hence proved, 10, Hitting the target means that A.B and C all trying to hit the target together. Glven, a can hit a target 4 times in 5 shots Probability to hit the target by A= 21a) Bcanhita target 3 times in 4 shots. Probability to hit the target by 8= 3+ (6) C can hita target 2 times in 3 shots Probability to hit the target by C = ge P(C). So, required probability to hit the target 1=1-P(A)H{I=P(8)){1-P(C)) “lest “eo 60 Mostly students find P (A> B 7 C) instead of finding PABLO) TL Here, Ry =(4red balls) B, =(5 black balls} Ry = (6 red balls} and B, =(3 black balls) Let event €, = one red ball is taken from first bag and transferred to second bag. €, =one black ball is taken from first bag and transferred to second bag. and event =a red ball drawn randomly from second bag £).7 p(€).6 lg)-m rlé)-s Pele PE)=E Event and Hence, P(E) =PLE,) o(E) +n.) (E) “90° 90° 90° 45 COMMON) ERROR Mostly students have a confusion whether to opply total probability theorem or Baye's theorem. eo _4 909 1 Here, P(a)= Fo = 3 aa P (Agree)= P (both speaking truth or both telling Le) (AB or AB) = P(A)P(B) or P(A)P (3) 9 Bed t-rtaye-r(e) 4)(,_3)_18,1,1 (aaa “35*50° 50 "50° 100 13. Here, P(A) =04, P(8)=03 and P(C) =02 P(A) =1-P(A) P(B)=1-P(8) P(A) =1-P(A)=1-0.4 =06, p(B) =1-03=07,P(C)=1-02 508 So, probability of two hits = P(A)-P(B).P(C) +P(A)-P(B)-P(C)+P(A)-P(a)-P(C) = (04)(03)(08) + (0.4)(0.7)(0.2) + (06) (03)(02) 0096 +0056 +0036 -0188 {cOMMONJERR()R ‘Students face problems in deciding when to add or when and P(8)= tomultiply probability.So,adequate practice is required, 14, Let X denotes the number of milk chocolate drawn, So, X canbe 0, land 2. Px ni)e(2xf) 2-35, 2 2 Pika 2)eZnteZ PEE EEE EEE EEE EEE EEE IEEE EIDE IE III EI III IDI II II II II II II IIE EE ET Required probability distribution i 1B. Hore, x Is the numberof fours obtained. So, X can x [oo 7 : take values 0.1 and 2 2 i 2 Probability dstbutlon Is Poo! 55 5 3 " x|_0 1 2 Most Ukely outcome Is getting one chocolate of each oe 911 POX) 25107100 (COMMONJ ERROR Students get confused whether the items are drawn with Now, Mean p =X P(X) = XoFh + X1 P+ X2P2 replacement orwithout replacement. onl 1, 18 1 2 2 yoo*'“ioa** “iao~ 19a“ 70 15, Let X be the random variable defined as the number of red balls, 19. Given, X denotes the sum of the numbers, Then S0, X can be 4, 6,8, 10,12. PX a | Nummer: P(X) xP(X) P(X 2 Probability distribution table is: 4} (13) z x a 1 P(X) v2 w2 S| fue : 16. Given, the variable X denotes the number of red balls. (as) Then, al o &, of 3 (17) 2 10] (7) = 2] (67) 2 Probability distribution table is TRICK i a 7 3 Let X be a random variable taking values x, X),.-.%q With P(X) =z 2 1 probabilities py, Pp, .. Pq respectively. Then mean of a 0 5 io ‘fandom variable Xis Sx). 7. Let X denotes the number of spade cards drawn. Then the value of X will be O, 1 and 2. ‘Mean ® XP(X) Now. the probability of drawing 2 spade card 20. Sample space of test: =(1.2.3.4 5.6) m4 Let X be the number that appear on the dle, then Xisa and the probablity of not drawing a spade card random varlable, which can take the values 1.2,3,4.5, or 1 P() =P(2)=PQa)=P(4)=P(5)=P(6)=2 Probability distribution of X Is as following x{if2z2{3][4[s5]e6 Fe Po) st selselselele So, the probability distribution of the number of Now. Mean E(x) = 5° P(x) spade cards is: Bl x o 1 2 P(X) a, a ab, 4 6 a i ee Short Answer Type-ll Questions 1 Number of white balls = 4 and_ Number of black balls =3 Number of balls ina bag=4+3=7 Allthese balls drawn one by onewithout repetition. Probability of getting fist balls white = = Probability of getting second ball Is black 3 “Gay 672 Probability of getting third ball is white = Probability of getting seventh ball is whit 13 Zale d 2°5°2"3"2"" 35 2. Let M= event of the group of students read mathematics and B = event ofthe group of students read biology, Suppose (5) =100 then nM) = 40,n(8) =20 and r(MinB)=10 Py = Xt). 402 m5) 1005 So, required probably = TiP eam the concepts of conditional probity and is applications. ofa)_ 20 1 P)=76)" i005 o(Mae) 10 1 nfs)" 100 10 and (M8) = (i) Required probability =P (he reads mathematics, when itis known that he reads biology) 1 (i) Pins) iG 51 5)" Pe) Lo 5 (i) Required probability =P (he read biology when it Js known that he reads Mathematics) 1 PiMin8) ig 511 8 °() aoa BS 5-7 5 PEE EEE EEE EEE EEE EEE IEEE EIDE IE III EI III IDI II II II II II II IIE EE ET 3. Let event wsumof the mumiberstseven TiP Practice more problems on elementary probability, imvoting combinations. and event 8 =bath numbers are odd. From integers 1 to Il the sum will be even only when either both the numbers are odd or both are even There are 6 add numbers and 5 even numbers. §C,45C, P(A) = £c, Pla Ra plane an (= qe=PtAne) B)_P(An8) He jired probability = P| —|=———— crc ete pravtany o9(2) «PUA Sc, 6! Ny Sc 21a +5, +8, TT aoe zai" 231 2 1515 3 i5+10 25 5 {EOMMON] ERROR Mostly students go wrong in problems involving permutations and combinations. 4, P (not abtalning an odd person In a single round) =P (All three of them throw talls or all three of them throw heads) Zee and P (obtaining an odd person in a single round) ~P (not obtaining an odd person ina single round) 13 Required probability (in first round there Is no odd person’ and ‘in second round there is no add person’ and'in third round there Is an odd person’) 143.3 Aaa ee 5, Let E, and E, denote the events that the person is a good orator.£) =Man orator and, =Woman orator P(E,)=4 and P(E;) 3 Zz Also let, A= Selecting good orator 5 PLAIE,) =a 25 and PA/E,) = == So, (choosing good orator) = P(A) = P(E))-P(A/E)) + P(E2)-P(A/E2) 51,2575 3 "Soo" 2 “tooo” 2000" Bo ee ee EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET 6. Let €)=€vent selecting bag AE = Event selecting age TiP Total probability theorem gives the total probability of an event whereas the Baye's theorem is basically o| conditional probability. and Event A= Getlingonered and ane black ball. 1 Here. P(E, 2 Also. P(AIE; and The probability that getting one red and one black ball, P(A) = P(E,)-P(A/E)) + P(E): PCA/E2) 1.8,2.7_22 35 45 {ECOMMON] ERROR Mostly students have a confusion whether to apply total probability theorem or Baye's theorem. 7. Given, number of cains with head on both sides ~(a-t=an+2 Picking a coin with head on both sides icking a fair coin ‘A =Getting a head on tossing the coin ai wa (2-4 Now, P(A) = P(E,)P(A/E,) + P(E 2) P(A/E2) (o-1) 4, (n+2) 1 30 Pre” n+) "2 2eneH ‘The probabiity thatthe toss results in ahead = 22 —# 3) 2(2n+)” 42 = 6302620431 ss ne3l {cOMMON| ERROR ‘Mostly students have a confusion whether to apply total probabilitytheorem or Baye's theorem. 8. Let A,: Event thatthe bulb is produced by machine E} ‘A, Event that the bulb is produced by machine €;. ‘Ag :Event that the bulb is produced by machine E3. A: Event that the picked up bulb is defective TiP Total probability theorem gives the total probability of an event whereas the Baye's theorem is basically o conditional probability. Here, —_-P(A,) = 50% The probability that the picked bulb Is defective, P(A) P(A) xP (4) -rtsn°( 2) + vuas)°( 2) Ltt ag Uae 2°35 4°35" 5°30 yoy 1 8t4s5 50" 100" 80" ~ 400 wal 00425 a 9. Let event A: first red ball: event 8: second red ball, event C: third red ball Probability of first red ball, P(A) = Z 2 remaining balls. red = 4, black = 4 and white =3 Probability of second red vat.e(3) ; Remaining balls, red = 3, black = 4 and white =3 Probability of third red ball, (se a3 Hence, required probability (all the three balls are red), P(ANBAC)= maye(2) (555) Aas, 1 = PlANBnC)= Mess WO. Let event K =card drawn Isa king and event A = card drawn Is an ace 7 Now, P(K)= = sa (seme rant ot sean ng wth condition that one king has already been drawn, Now. there are three kings in (52-1) =51 cards. (f)-2 K) 5 PEE EEE EEE EEE EEE EEE IEEE EIDE IE III EI III IDI II II II II II II IIE EE ET 1 oA A be an ace, with the condition that two kings have already been drawn. Now, there are four aces in left 50 cards. (8) om i) “50 By multiplication law of probability. vo) 434 2 “5251 50 5525 (i) Aand Bare independent events P(AMB)=P(A)-PIB) Now. P(4'8")=1-P(AUB) =1-{P(A)+P(8)-P(An8)} = P(A) -P(8)+ P(A)-P(B) & P(AM8) =P(A)-P(6) -P(A)}(1-P(6) = Plana’) =P(4')-P(8") Therefore, A' and 6’ are also independent events. Hence proved. w (8) =a P(B)-P(A) a, P(A) PCA) (+ Aand Bare independent events) "Aa na) PL) Pe) P(A‘ 8) _ PLA) PCB may Pay) Therefore, (2) = P(6) ana p(B) Hence proved. Let E be the event that threw a pair of dice reports doublet Again let 5; be event that it comes a doublet and 52 be the event that it does not come a doublet. P(E /5))=Man speaks a trutt P(E/S;)=Man does not speak a truth | 010 B8y using Baye's theorem, Pp 3) = Man speak that it is a doublet, butitis actually a doublet. (5) «PIE 15, PIS) «PCE /5,) + PS) xPIET Sa) ent that A does not speak truth svent that 8 speaks truth 808 100710 P(E! )=1-P(E,) =1- PED Let € = event that A and 8 agree with each other. Now A and 6 can agree with each other in the following two cases: (@) Aand&, both speak truth this event is denoted by E,n€>. (b) Aand 8, both do not speak truth. this event is denoted byE')E'2. Above two events are mutually exclusive. = P(E) = P(E NE 2)+ P(E E'2) (E))-P(E 2) + P(E')):P(E'2) 78,32 56 6 62 00100" 100 i010" 10 "10 Therefore, A and 8 agree with each other in 62% of cases, (ll) Prababitity that they oppose each other probability that both agree with each other ‘Therefore, they oppose each other in3B96 of cases. 4 Let E event getting a total of 9 and F sevent gettinga total of 7 Pejeed So, P (Bwins the game) (E+ EFEF + EFEFEF +...) = P(E)-P(F)+(P(E)}? -P(F):P(F) 7 PEP (PYF APF) + PIE)-P(F) “1=PEE)P TRICK Sumofinfnite terms of GP. s $= = 15. Let E,be the event that the girl gets Tor 2. €, be the event that the girl gets 3.4,5 or 6 and Abe the event the girl gets exactly a tail: Then. P(E;) (4) =P(getting exactly one tall when a coin is 1 tossed three times) = 3 a p (é)- P (getting exactly a tail when a coin stossed 2 Students forget to define the events and apply Boye's ) theorem directly and lose marks. 16. Let be the event that the ghee of type Shop X contains 30 tins of ghee of type Aand 40 tins of ghee of typeB. ‘. Probability of ghee of type B = P(B/ x)= = Shop ¥ contains 60 tins of ghee of type And 60 tins of ghee of pen, TiP For Baye’s theorem and total probability theorem, events should bewell defined. Probability of ghee of type 8 = P(8/Y) = s é Also, probability of choosing a shop is. 3 ‘as both shop have equal probability of choosing, 1 P(X) =P(V)= $0, required probability. PY) xP(B/Y) PUYIB) = a xP(GIX) + PIV) xP(BIY) 16 1,8 TT. Let, E; is event of students which have 100% attendance. E, Is event of students which are irregular. Then, and Let, A =event of students which attendance A grade then A A o(A)=a7 and o(A)-0 TiP For Boye's theorem, events should be well defined. So, by Baye's theorem, P (Students has 100% attendance) (3) PlE;) o(2)+Pts (2) oaxa7 03407 _ 03 03x074+07x01 07(03+0)) 04 075 a As per answer, the probability of regular students Is more than 50%. So, the regularity s required. 18. Lot E, = event that selected item Is produced from machine A TiP For Baye’s theorem and total probability theorem, events should be well defined. and , = event that selected item Is produced from machine & Let A = event that produced item is defective Probability that selected item Is produced from machine A P(E) =60%=06 Probability that selected item Is produced from machine 8 P(E) = 40%=04 Probability that produced item from machine A Is defective P (4) =2% 2002 &) Probability that produced item fram machine B Is defective o(€)-m-om £2 From Baye's theorem, probability that defective item is produced by machine A when an item is chosen randomly EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET 6 x02 oor “06«002+04x00) O012 +0004 go 123 a06 164 19, Let, = The event that six comes an the die. he event that six does not comes on the die. fhe event that man reports it Is a six 1 E, PE) and P(E,)=1-P(E,) (P(E) +P(E2)=1) oa Probability that the man report that there Is a sb an the die given that slx comes on the die = (@) = roby ht man speaks ruth Probability that the man reports that there is a six on the die given that six does nat cames on the dle ) = Probability that man does not speak truth 55 By Baye's theorem, we have p (3) =Probabllity that there Is a six given that man reports that there Is a six on die Now. the probability that the other coin in the box Is, of gold = the probability that gold coin in drawn from the box |=P(E,/A) From Baye's theorem, Plea) S P(E) PALE) neve(2)-ee:1e(A]+e0-(2) 1 da Tt pele geoe {COMMON ERROR Mostly students have a confusion whether to opply total probability theorem or Baye's theorem. 21. Let A.&.C and Dbe the events that the patient travet by train. bus, scooter and any other means of transport Given that 3 1 Pla)= e)=2 (a2 rte) -2 od PC)=a and P0)== Let € be the event that he reaches late. E/A event that he reaches late when he travels, by train. €/8 =event that he reaches late when he travels bybus. E/C = event that he reaches late when he travels by scooter. E/D = event that he reaches late when he travels by any other means. : 5 a 1 ms vfe)r(A}rteye(& PEIA)=7 PEE) = 5 14 plesc)=L and P(E/0)=0 ae _ 25 2s a - a “ZT as Now required probability = P(A/E) 6°56 5 1% 6 “30 P(A)-P(E/ A) 2 2 4 p(a)-p(E).. (a). (E) . e(c).0( a ERROR +(0)°(F) Mostly students have a confusion whether to apply total 3 probability theorem or Baye's theorem an ssf 20. Let €, £2 and €; be the events that boxes |, II and Ill jo.4°5"3' "Ds are chosen respectively 3 then, PCE) 1 =P(E,)=PlEs)=1 (E2)=PlEs)=3 Let Abe the event that cain drawn Is of gold. Then, P(A/E;) = P (a gold coln from box!) == Zeit P(A/E,) =P (a gold coin fram box I) =O P(A/E3) =P (a gold coln from box Il) = ee 3 -sh th 3 4 70" 15" 0 "720 {EOMMON] ERROR Students forget to define the events and apply Baye's theorem directly and lose marks. EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET kif 2k if x=1 3k if |O. otherwise 22. Given P(X) = os SA a ki 2k+3k+0. = ke (i) P(X <2) = PC =k+2k (il) P(X >2) = P(x =0+0+ 23, itis given that the random variable X can take only the values 0,1, 2,3 Given, P(2)=P( and P(0)=2()) Let P()) = 4, then P(O) = 24 Now. P(X =0)+P( TRICK Let X be a random variable which can toke'n’ values x;, 3,4 NM Pi, Py Py FeSpective probabilities then Pit Prt pat = 2q+qtptpel () Since, 2px? =22 px, = pord + put + prxd + paxd =2 (poXo + Pixi + 2X2 + P3Xa} 32q-049-()?4P-27 +P. =2 (29-04 q-14 p-2+p-3) 3049+ pl4+9)=2(0+9+2p+3p) = q+13p =2(9+5p) = +13p =29+ 109 = [From eq. (1)) 24, TiP Practice mare problems with based coins and dice. 3 1 Here, P(Head) «2 and (Tal) 2 Lot X be the number of tals in two cases. Clearly X can be 0, land 2 ee Probability distribution is given by, x 0 1 2 33,3 7 PO) | a7a7is [2°44 7i6| 44 "16 So, Mean =2XP(X) = XePy + XP + XP 651.81 2Oxd4 2424-821 16°16" 1672 COMMON] ERROR ‘Mostly students have no idea in finding the probability of head and tail in case of biased coins. 25. Let X denotes the random variable defined by the number of defective items. So. probability distribution is as follows: x) o 1 2 Pi 215. Bs ws Thus, mean =2 ppx;= pyxy+ P22 + PaXs Ona xa ea 2 5 6 8 3 26, Its given that out of 30 bulbs, 6 are defective. Therefore, number of non-defective bulbs =30-6=24 Let X be the random variable that denotes the ‘number of defective bulbs in the selected bulbs. Inaglven sample we have to drawn 2 bulbs le. X=O12 Here, probability of defective Bulb Is, p= 5 andprobabty of nondetective bug = 24 Now P(X: = P (Two non-defective bulbs) =9xq P(x =) =P (one defective and one non-defective bulbs) The probability distribution of X is x oO 1 2 waxy | = + 25 25 25 PEE EEE EEE EEE EEE EEE IEEE EIDE IE III EI III IDI II II II II II II IIE EE ET Mean (X) = E(X) = Xi Pr X> Pa + Xa Pa 16 8 a2 1 eet te 27. Probability of getting six in single die é bbs of geting ron sini d= Let X represents the numbers of sixes abtained, When two dice are thrown simultaneously. Therefore X-can take the value of 0, 1or 2. Now P(X =0) =P (getting nan six on both dice) BS 6 P(X =1) =P (getting sb on first die and non six on seconddie) +P (getting non sixon first die and six on second die) 1,5,5,1_10 pe 666 36 P(X =2) =P (getting six on both dice) wd 6"6 36 Mean of X =0xP(X =0)41xP(X =1) +2 P(X =2) 28. Total number of possible outcomes =P, TiP Practice more problems on elementary probabitity| involving permutetlons and combination. 5! = FS 04220 Here, x denotes the larger of two numbers obtained X can take values 2, 3,4 and 5: 1 Now, P(X =2)=P (getting (1, 2) or (2, )J=2= 20°10 P(X =3)=P (getting (1,3) or (3,1) or (2,3) or (3. 2)) 41 “25 P(X = 4) =P (getting (1.4) ar (4,1) or (2. 4) or (4, 2) 3 or (3,4) oF (4.3) o as andP(X = 5)=P (getting(1.5) or (5.1) or (2,5) or (5.2) g 2 or (3.5) oF (5,3) or (4,5) or (5.4))= = 2 TRICK Let Xbe a random variable taking values x3, 42, %n With probabilities py, pz, --. Py respectively. Then mean of a random variable Xis xp, ee ‘Thus, the probability distribution of X is x 2 3 4 5 T 7 3 z PO) | io 5 io 5 Now, Mean of X= €(X)=2X-P(x) = XGPy + XGPs + XePa + XP, 43-44-3452 5" 0 28, Here, S=((1,2). (1.3). (1.4).(2,).(2,3).(2.4), (3.1), (3.2). (3. 4). (4.1). (4.2). (4. 3)} => n(5)=12 Let random variable x denotes the sum of the numbers on two cards drawn. So, the random varlables X may have values 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. TiP ‘Let X be 0 random variable which con take n volues 4s Xap Xp LOL, sD DE the respective probabilities, then py+ p2+ Ps ++ Py =1 where, Pi>0, F= 1.2m zak 2 y AtX25,P(X)= Dat Atx 26,P(X)=5 Wes5 BPO) SS At X=3 P(X) ACK 24, PUx)ed. Axe 7.P(X) = 3, TRICK Let X be a random variable taking values xy, X2....%q With 1 & probabilities ps, p2, .» Pn respectively. Then mean of a rondom variable Xis,$ xp) Therefore, the required probability distribution Is as follows: x [3a [s4f[sfel7 p(x) | ve | ve | v3 | ve | vs Mean, E(X) =2X P(X) = XgPy + XaPa + XP + XePs + XP SBxbe Gabe Sxh 4 6xne Txt 6 6 3 6 6 25108 720s 6 6°6 6 Long Answer Type Questions 1, Let€} =event student knows the answer TiP For Baye's theorem, events should be well defined. and E, = gvent, student guesses the answer, then PUEDE. PEa)= 5 Let As events, student gives the right answer. IF student knows the answer a answer Is correct. ee EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET Probability that if answer knows, answers correct A Ala E, Probability that if answer he gusses, answer Is correct =P(A) + E73 By Baye’s theorem. probability that student knows the answer of question, if it Is known that he gives right answer PEW E q rev(e) nerd) 2 ” and but |-P(AUB) = (P(A) P(@)-P(Ane)) = |=P(A) -P(8)+ P(A 8) = P(A)+P(B) 2 = P(e) =2-p(a) then from eq. (I) 5 1 alee] =z 5 1 = Zh) (PAP =a = 5P(A)-6[P(A)?? =1 = 6(P(A)}? -50(A)+1=0 = 6(P(A))?-3°(A)-2P(A)+1=0 = (2P(A)-1(3(A)-1] <0 = P(A)= Lor P(A)= 3 Now, POl= say (Fromeq. (0) when (4) = 3. then (a) when P(A) =} then Ple)=5 ‘Therefore, required probabllitles are and 3 3. Let A: Event that item produced by operator A 8: Event that item produced by operator 8 C: Event that item produced by operator C. 1D: Event that item produced as defective. Now. P(A)= Probability of item Is produced by operator A 50 | 250% == 05 a) ~Probablty of em produced by operator 8 =30%= aa a3 joo P(C) = Probability of item is produced by operator C =20%- 22 a2 io P(D/A) = Probability of a defective item produced by operator A ; =Yo=G5- O01 P(0/8) =Probabilty of a defective item produced by operator 8 =5%=— -005 100 P(D/C) = Probabllity of a defective item produced by operator C 7 = 1-2 #007 Probability that items produced by operator Aifit Is defective Le, P(A/D) P(A)-P(0/ A PUA)-POTA)+P(B)-P(O/B) + P(C) (OIC) . 5 001 * @5,001+03~005 +02 007 aos os 5 * O05 +0015 +a0N4) ~ Do34~ 34 ERROR ‘Mostly students have a confusion whether to apply total probability theorem or Baye's theorem. 4, Let: Event that urn has 2 white balls. €, : €vent that urn has 3 white balls. E, : Event that urn has 4 white balls. A: Event that 2 balls drawn are white. 3 3 taza and PAVE) agate 2 (Adame Maas : 32,201 3G 22,2211 PAE ae Tat aa" 4c, P(A/Es)=q=2=1 C2 Required probability, P(E3/A) . P(E)-P(A/Es) PIE; )P (ATE) + P(Ez)P(A/Ez) + P(E) P(ATEs) Students forget to define the event and opply Baye's theorem directly and lose marks. EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET 5. The probability of drawing a ticket with a prize of 78 201 .p(ee)= 2-2 The probability of drawing a ticket with a prize of € 4 1 Ei rltde dad The probability of drawing a ticket with a prize of £2 is, p(t2)-2 io Mean value of the prize =P(8) xB + P(E 4) x4 + P(22) x2 6. The sample space of the experiment consists of 36 elernentary events in the form of ordered pairs (x. y) where x; =1,2,3,4,5,6 andy, =1.2,3.4,5.6 ‘The random varlable X, le, the sum of the numbers on the two dice takes the values 2.3,4.5,6,7.8,9. 10, Tor 12. TiP ‘At random meons without replacement. Now, P(X =: P(x. P(X. =P (( (1.3) (2.2). (3) P(X =5)=P (1.4). (2.3). (3.2). (4.1) P(X =6)=P ({(1, 5). (2,4). (3.3), (4 2). (5.1))) = = P(X = 7)=P ({(1. 6). (2.5). (3.4), (4.3). (5.2). (6.0) % P(x 8) =P (2.6). (3.5). 4.4) (5.3) (6.2)) = P(X m9) mP (3.6) (4.5) 6.4) (6.3) = P(X =10)=P ({(4, 6), (5.5). (6. 4) P(X ati) =P (((5.6). (6.5))) P(X =12)=P (((6.6))) “= ‘The probability distribution of X is: xem, [2]2]4]5 [6] 7] 2] 2 [2] " [2 V2\2l4/slsll4elzn P(x) or, | 55] 36) 36 [36 36] 36| 36 | 3s |36] 36 36 4 a a2 1 9B sx S eS ae =(2+64124204304-424.404 36430 1 422412)« 36 252 5 ‘hus the ees the mum of runribers ta appar on throwing two far ce 67 7. Let X be the number of kings obtained. Weeanget 0, Yor 2 lang. So wale oF X50, 1062 Total number of ways to draw 2 cards out of 52 Le, Total ways = °C, =1326 P(X =0) Le. Probability of getting Q king, TiP ‘Practice more problems on elementary probability| involving combinations. Number of ways to get 0 king =Number of ways to select 2 cards out of non-kin cards lumber of ways to select 2 cards out of (524) 48 cards = “8c, =1128 gy _ Number of ways to get Oking _ 1128 P(X =0)= Trak number of ways "1326 (X =I) 1. Probabllity of getting 1 king Number of ways to get Iking =Number of ways to select Iking out of 4 king cards x Number of ways to select I card from 48 noneking cards Cy MC y= 4 x48 2192 Number of ways to get king, _ 192 Xa) = Humber of ways to pata 182. rt D ‘Total number of ways 1326 P(X =2) Le, Probability of getting 2 kings. Number of ways to get 2 kings = Number of ways of selecting 2 kings out of 4 king cards "C226 P(x 22) = Number of ways to get 2kings 6 Total number of ways” 1326 Mean (i) = €(X)= 5X, im = KP + aR) + KP l28, 5, 192.9, 6 126" “Ta26"* “1326 192412 _ 204 34 1326 , ee TRICK Let Xbe Case Study Based Questions 5. Case Study 1 A coach is training 3 players. He observes that the Player A can hit a target 4 times in 5 shots, Player B can hit 3 times in 4 shots and the Player C can hit 2 times in 3 shots. In an event, a coach gives an opportunity to all three persons to hit the target. — > Pe de Based on the given information, solve the following questions: (i) Find the probability that 4, Band all will hit. (ji) What is the probability that 8, C will hit and A will lose? (iii) What is the probability that any two of A, B and C will hit? Or What is the probability that none of them will hit the target? Q6. Case Study 2 By examine the test, the probability that a person is diagnosed with CORONA when he is actually suffering from it, is 0.99. The probability that the doctor incorrectly diagnosed a person to be having CORONA, on the basis of test reports, is 0.001. In a certain city, 1 in 1000 persons suffers from CORONA. A person is selected at random and is diagnosed to have CORONA. Based on the above information, solve the following questions: (]) What is the P(CORONA is diagnosed, when the person actually has CORONA)? Whatiis the (CORONA is diagnosed, when the person has not CORONA)? What is (CORONA is Or What is the P(Person has CORONA given CORONA is diagnosed)? Very Short Answer Type Questions 97. Find the probability distribution of X, the number of heads in a simultaneous toss of two coins. iagnosed)? 8. The probabilit ity of Awinning the race is Sand that of B winning the race is ; What is the probability that both will never win this race? EERE EEE IEEE EE EID EI EI IDI IDI EI IDI ID II II III II II IID IEEE EO ET ee Short Answer Type-| Questions 5. Given that E and F are events such that P(E) =| P(F) = 0.7, PEF) =0.6. Find P(E/F). 10. A question paper of mathematics is given to three students A,B,C to solve, for which the possibilities of solving ares 4 4 then find the probability of 8, solving the question. Short Answer Type-II Questions Q1. Arandom variable X has the following probability distribution: x loli[2[s]4][s]lel7 po | a | 40 | 30 | 70 | 80 |100| 60 | 90 Find P(X <3), P(X 24), P(0.

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