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U n d e r s ta n d a b l e s tat i s t i c s

co n c e p t s a n d br ase
methods br ase
12E

Copyright 2018 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
TWELFTH EDITION

Understandable
Statistics
CONCEPTS AND METHODS

Charles Henry Brase

REGIS UNIVERSITY

Corrinne Pellillo Brase

ARAPAHOE COMMUNITY COLLEGE

$XVWUDOLDä%UD]LOä0H[LFRä6LQJDSRUHä8QLWHG.LQJGRPä8QLWHG6WDWHV
 This book is dedicated to the memory of
a great teacher, mathematician, and friend
Burton W. Jones
Professor Emeritus, University of Colorado

Understandable Statistics: Concepts and © 2018, 2015, 2012 Cengage Learning

Methods, Twelfth Edition
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright herein
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Printed in the United States of America

Print Number: 01 Print Year: 2016
Contents
Preface xv
Table of Prerequisite Material 1

1 Getting Started 2
FOCUS PROBLEM: Where Have All the Fireflies Gone? 3
1.1 What Is Statistics? 4
1.2 Random Samples 13
1.3 Introduction to Experimental Design 22
Summary 32
Important Words & Symbols 32
Chapter Review Problems 33
Data Highlights: Group Projects 35
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 36

USING TECHNOLOGY 37

2 Organizing Data 40
FOCUS PROBLEM: Say It with Pictures 41
2.1 Frequency Distributions, Histograms, and Related Topics 42
2.2 Bar Graphs, Circle Graphs, and Time-Series Graphs 59
2.3 Stem-and-Leaf Displays 69
Summary 78
Important Words & Symbols 78
Chapter Review Problems 79
Data Highlights: Group Projects 82
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 84

USING TECHNOLOGY 85

3 Averages and Variation 88

FOCUS PROBLEM: Water: Yellowstone River 89
3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode, Median, and Mean 90
3.2 Measures of Variation 102
3.3 Percentiles and Box-and-Whisker Plots 121
Summary 132
Important Words & Symbols 132
Chapter Review Problems 133
Data Highlights: Group Projects 135
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 137

USING TECHNOLOGY 138

Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 1-3 139

iii
iv CONTENTS

4 Elementary Probability Theory 142

FOCUS PROBLEM: How Often Do Lie Detectors Lie? 143
4.1 What Is Probability? 144
4.2 Some Probability Rules—Compound Events 155
4.3 Trees and Counting Techniques 177
Summary 188
Important Words & Symbols 188
Chapter Review Problems 189
Data Highlights: Group Projects 191
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 193

USING TECHNOLOGY 194

5 The Binomial Probability

Distribution and Related Topics 196
FOCUS PROBLEM: Personality Preference Types: Introvert or Extrovert? 197
5.1 Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions 198
5.2 Binomial Probabilities 212
5.3 Additional Properties of the Binomial Distribution 229
5.4 The Geometric and Poisson Probability Distributions 242
Summary 260
Important Words & Symbols 260
Chapter Review Problems 261
Data Highlights: Group Projects 264
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 266
USING TECHNOLOGY 268

6 Normal Curves and Sampling Distributions 270

FOCUS PROBLEM: Impulse Buying 271
PART I: Normal Distributions 272
6.1 Graphs of Normal Probability Distributions 272
6.2 Standard Units and Areas Under the Standard Normal Distribution 288
6.3 Areas Under Any Normal Curve 299
PART II: Sampling Distributions and the Normal Approximation to Binomial
Distribution 314
6.4 Sampling Distributions 314
6.5 The Central Limit Theorem 320
6.6 Normal Approximation to Binomial Distribution and to p̂ Distribution 332
Summary 343
Important Words & Symbols 344
Chapter Review Problems 344
Data Highlights: Group Projects 347
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 348
USING TECHNOLOGY 350
Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 4-6 354

7 Estimation 358
FOCUS PROBLEM: The Trouble with Wood Ducks 359
PART I: Estimating a Single Mean or Single Proportion 360
7.1 Estimating m When s Is Known 360
 CONTENTS v

7.2 Estimating m When s Is Unknown 374

7.3 Estimating p in the Binomial Distribution 387
PART II: Estimating the Difference Between Two Means or Two Proportions 400
7.4 Estimating m1  m2 and p1  p2 401
Summary 423
Important Words & Symbols 423
Chapter Review Problems 424
Data Highlights: Group Projects 429
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 430

USING TECHNOLOGY 432

8 Hypothesis Testing 436

FOCUS PROBLEM: Benford’s Law: The Importance of Being Number 1 437
PART I: Testing a Single Mean or Single Proportion 438
8.1 Introduction to Statistical Tests 438
8.2 Testing the Mean m 454
8.3 Testing a Proportion p 470
PART II: Testing a Difference Between Two Means or Two Proportions 481
8.4 Tests Involving Paired Differences (Dependent Samples) 481
8.5 Testing m1  m2 and p1  p2 (Independent Samples) 496
Summary 522
Finding the P-Value Corresponding to a Sample Test Statistic 522
Important Words & Symbols 523
Chapter Review Problems 524
Data Highlights: Group Projects 527
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 528

USING TECHNOLOGY 529

9 Correlation and Regression 532

FOCUS PROBLEM: Changing Populations and Crime Rate 533
PART I: Simple Linear Regression 534
9.1 Scatter Diagrams and Linear Correlation 534
9.2 Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination 552
9.3 Inferences for Correlation and Regression 573
PART II: Multiple Regression 593
9.4 Multiple Regression 594
Summary 610
Important Words & Symbols 610
Chapter Review Problems 611
Data Highlights: Group Projects 614
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 615

USING TECHNOLOGY 616

Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 7-9 618

10 Chi-Square and F Distributions 622

FOCUS PROBLEM: Archaeology in Bandelier National Monument 623
PART I: Inferences Using the Chi-Square Distribution 624
Overview of the Chi-Square Distribution 624
10.1 Chi-Square: Tests of Independence and of Homogeneity 625
vi CONTENTS

10.2 Chi-Square: Goodness of Fit 640

10.3 Testing and Estimating a Single Variance or Standard Deviation 650
PART II: Inferences Using the F Distribution 663
Overview of the F Distribution 663
10.4 Testing Two Variances 664
10.5 One-Way ANOVA: Comparing Several Sample Means 673
10.6 Introduction to Two-Way ANOVA 689
Summary 701
Important Words & Symbols 701
Chapter Review Problems 702
Data Highlights: Group Projects 705
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 705

USING TECHNOLOGY 707

11 Nonparametric Statistics 710

FOCUS PROBLEM: How Cold? Compared to What? 711
11.1 The Sign Test for Matched Pairs 712
11.2 The Rank-Sum Test 720
11.3 Spearman Rank Correlation 728
11.4 Runs Test for Randomness 739
Summary 748
Important Words & Symbols 748
Chapter Review Problems 748
Data Highlights: Group Projects 750
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 751

Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 10-11 752

Appendix I: Additional Topics A1

Part I: Bayes’s Theorem A1
Part II: The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution A5

Appendix II: Tables A9

Table 1: Random Numbers A9
Table 2: Binomial Coefficients Cn,r A10
Table 3: Binomial Probability Distribution Cn,r prqnr A11
Table 4: Poisson Probability Distribution A16
Table 5: Areas of a Standard Normal Distribution A22
Table 6: Critical Values for Student’s t Distribution A24
Table 7: The x2 Distribution A25
Table 8: Critical Values for F Distribution A26
Table 9: Critical Values for Spearman Rank Correlation, rs A36
Table 10: Critical Values for Number of Runs R
(Level of Significance a  0.05) A37

Answers and Key Steps to Odd-Numbered Problems A39

Answers to Selected Even-Numbered Problems A73
Index I1
Critical Thinking
Students need to develop critical thinking skills in order to understand and evaluate the limitations of
statistical methods. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods makes students aware of method
appropriateness, assumptions, biases, and justifiable conclusions.

CRITICAL
 Critical Thinking
THINKING Unusual Values
Critical thinking is an important
Chebyshev’s theorem tells us that no matter what the data distribution looks like, skill for students to develop in
at least 75% of the data will fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean. As order to avoid reaching misleading
we will see in Chapter 6, when the distribution is mound-shaped and symmetric,
conclusions. The Critical Thinking
about 95% of the data are within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Data values
beyond 2 standard deviations from the mean are less common than those closer
feature provides additional clari-
to the mean. fication on specific concepts as a
In fact, one indicator that a data value might be an outlier is that it is more safeguard against incorrect evalua-
than 2.5 standard deviations from the mean (Source: Statistics, by G. Upton and tion of information.
I. Cook, Oxford University Press).

UNUSUAL VALUES
For a binomial distribution, it is unusual for the number of successes r to be
higher than m 1 2.5s or lower than m 2.5s.

We can use this indicator to determine whether a specified number of successes

out of n trials in a binomial experiment are unusual.
For instance, consider a binomial experiment with 20 trials for which probability
of success on a single trial is p 5 0.70. The expected number of successes is m 5 14,
with a standard deviation of s < 2. A number of successes above 19 or below 9
would be considered unusual. However, such numbers of successes are possible.

Interpretation  SOLUTION: Since we want to know the number of standard deviations from the mean,
we want to convert 6.9 to standard z units.
Increasingly, calculators and computers are used
to generate the numeric results of a statistical pro- x m 6.9 8
cess. However, the student still needs to correctly z5 5 5 2.20
s 0.5
interpret those results in the context of a particu-
lar application. The Interpretation feature calls Interpretation The amount of cheese on the selected pizza is only 2.20 standard
attention to this important step. Interpretation is deviations below the mean. The fact that z is negative indicates that the amount of
stressed in examples, in guided exercises, and in cheese is 2.20 standard deviations below the mean. The parlor will not lose its fran-
the problem sets. chise based on this sample.

6. Interpretation A campus performance series features plays, music groups,  Critical Thinking and Interpretation
dance troops, and stand-up comedy. The committee responsible for selecting
the performance groups include three students chosen at random from a pool
Exercises
of volunteers. This year the 30 volunteers came from a variety of majors. In every section and chapter problem set, Critical Thinking
However, the three students for the committee were all music majors. Does
this fact indicate there was bias in the selection process and that the selection problems provide students with the opportunity to test their
process was not random? Explain. understanding of the application of statistical methods and
7. Critical Thinking Greg took a random sample of size 100 from the popula- their interpretation of their results. Interpretation problems
tion of current season ticket holders to State College men’s basketball games. ask students to apply statistical results to the particular
Then he took a random sample of size 100 from the population of current application.
season ticket holders to State College women’s basketball games.
(a)
venience, random) did Greg use to sample from the population of current
season ticket holders to all State College basketball games played by
either men or women?
(b) Is it appropriate to pool the samples and claim to have a random sample of
size 200 from the population of current season ticket holders to all State
College home basketball games played by either men or women? Explain. vii
 viii Chapter 1 GETTING STARTED

Statistical Literacy
No language, including statistics, can be spoken without learning the vocabulary. Understandable
Statistics: Concepts and Methods introduces statistical terms with deliberate care.

 What Does (concept, method,

What Does the Level of Measurement Tell Us? statistical result) Tell Us?
The level of measurement tells us which arithmetic processes are appropriate for the This feature gives a brief summary of the informa-
data. This is important because different statistical processes require various kinds of tion we obtain from the named concept, method, or
arithmetic. In some instances all we need to do is count the number of data that meet statistical result.
specified criteria. In such cases nominal (and higher) data levels are all appropriate. In
other cases we need to order the data, so nominal data would not be suitable. Many
other statistical processes require division, so data need to be at the ratio level. Just
keep the nature of the data in mind before beginning statistical computations.

Important Features of a
(concept, method, or result)  Important Features of a Simple Random Sample
For a simple random sample
In statistics we use many different types of graphs,

n from the population has an equal chance
samples, data, and analytical methods. The features
of being selected.
of each such tool help us select the most appropriate


No researcher bias occurs in the items selected for the sample.
ones to use and help us interpret the information we


receive from applications of the tools.
For instance, from a population of 10 cats and 10 dogs, a random sample
of size 6 could consist of all cats.

 Statistical Literacy Problems

SECTION 6.1 PROBLEMS 1. Statistical Literacy Which, if any, of the curves in Figure 6-10 look(s) like a
normal curve? If a curve is not a normal curve, tell why.
In every section and chapter problem set,
2. Statistical Literacy m,
m 1 s, and s. Statistical Literacy problems test student under-
FIGURE 6-10 standing of terminology, statistical methods, and
the appropriate conditions for use of the differ-
ent processes.
FIGURE 6-11

Definition Boxes 
Box-and-Whisker Plots
Whenever important terms are introduced in
The quartiles together with the low and high data values give us a very useful
text, blue definition boxes appear within the
number summary of the data and their spread.
discussions. These boxes make it easy to reference
or review terms as they are used further.
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY
Lowest value, Q1, median, Q3, highest value

box-and-whisker plot. Box-and-whisker plots provide another useful technique

viii from exploratory data analysis (EDA) for describing data.
 IMPORTANT WORDS & SYMBOLS  Important Words & Symbols
SECTION 4.1 Multiplication rules of probability (for The Important Words & Symbols within the
Probability of an event A, P(A) 144 independent and dependent events) 156
Intuition 144 More than two independent events 161 Chapter Review feature at the end of each
Relative frequency 144 Probability of A or B 161 chapter summarizes the terms introduced in the
Equally likely outcomes 144 Event A and B 161
Law of large numbers 146 Event A or B 161 Definition Boxes for student review at a glance.
Mutually exclusive events 163
Statistical experiment 146
Addition rules (for mutually exclusive and general
Page numbers for first occurrence of term are
Event 146
Simple event 146 events) 163 given for easy reference.
Sample space 146 More than two mutually exclusive events 165
Complement of event Ac 148 Basic probability rules 168

SECTION 4.2 SECTION 4.3

Independent events 156 Multiplication rule of counting 177
Dependent events 156 Tree diagram 178
Probability of A and B 156 Factorial notation 181
Event A | B 156 Permutations rule 181
Conditional probability 156 Combinations rule 183
P1A | B2 156

Linking Concepts:
Writing Projects  LINKING CONCEPTS: Discuss each of the following topics in class or review the topics on your own. Then
WRITING PROJECTS write a brief but complete essay in which you summarize the main points. Please
Much of statistical literacy is the ability include formulas and graphs as appropriate.
1. What does it mean to say that we are going to use a sample to draw an inference
to communicate concepts effectively. The about a population? Why is a random sample so important for this process? If
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects feature we wanted a random sample of students in the cafeteria, why couldn’t we just
at the end of each chapter tests both choose the students who order Diet Pepsi with their lunch? Comment on the
statement, “A random sample is like a miniature population, whereas samples
statistical literacy and critical thinking by that are not random are likely to be biased.” Why would the students who order
asking the student to express their under- Diet Pepsi with lunch not be a random sample of students in the cafeteria?
standing in words. 2. In your own words, explain the differences among the following sampling
-
ter sample, multistage sample, and convenience sample. Describe situations in
which each type might be useful.

5. Basic Computation: Central Limit Theorem Suppose x has a distribution  Basic Computation
with a mean of 8 and a standard deviation of 16. Random samples of size Problems
n 5 64 are drawn. These problems focus student
(a) Describe the x distribution and compute the mean and standard deviation attention on relevant formulas,
of the distribution. requirements, and computational pro-
(b) Find the z value corresponding to x 5 9. cedures. After practicing these skills,
(c) Find P1x 7 92. students are more confident as they
(d) Interpretation Would it be unusual for a random sample of size 64 from approach real-world applications.
the x distribution to have a sample mean greater than 9? Explain.

30. Expand Your Knowledge: Geometric Mean When data consist of percent-
ages, ratios, compounded growth rates, or other rates of change, the geomet-
ric mean is a useful measure of central tendency. For n data values,
Expand Your Knowledge Problems  n
Geometric mean 5 1product of the n data values, assuming all data
values are positive
Expand Your Knowledge problems present
optional enrichment topics that go beyond the average growth factor over 5 years of an investment in a mutual
material introduced in a section. Vocabulary -
and concepts needed to solve the problems are metric mean of 1.10, 1.12, 1.148, 1.038, and 1.16. Find the average growth
included at point-of-use, expanding students’ factor of this investment.
statistical literacy.

ix
Direction and Purpose
Real knowledge is delivered through direction, not just facts. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and
Methods ensures the student knows what is being covered and why at every step along the way to statis-
tical literacy.

Chapter Preview 
Questions Normal Curves and Sampling
Preview Questions at the beginning of
each chapter give the student a taste Distributions
of what types of questions can be
answered with an understanding of the
knowledge to come.

PREVIEW QUESTIONS
PART I
What are some characteristics of a normal distribution? What does
the empirical rule tell you about data spread around the mean?
How can this information be used in quality control? (SECTION 6.1)

Pressmaster/Shutterstock.com
Can you compare apples and oranges, or maybe elephants and butter-
flies? In most cases, the answer is no—unless you first standardize
your measurements. What are a standard normal distribution and
a standard z score? (SECTION 6.2)
How do you convert any normal distribution to a standard normal
distribution? How do you find probabilities of “standardized
events”? (SECTION 6.3)

PART II
FOCUS PROBLEM As humans, our experiences are finite and limited. Consequently, most of the important
decisions in our lives are based on sample (incomplete) information. What is a prob-
ability sampling distribution? How will sampling distributions help us make good
Benford’s Law: The Importance decisions based on incomplete information? (SECTION 6.4)
There is an old saying: All roads lead to Rome. In statistics, we could recast this saying: All
of Being Number 1 probability distributions average out to be normal distributions (as the sample size
increases). How can we take advantage of this in our study of sampling
distributions? (SECTION 6.5)
Benford’s Law states that in a wide variety of circum-
The binomial and normal distributions are two of the most important probability
distributions in statistics. Under certain limiting condi-
disproportionately often. Benford’s Law applies to such
diverse topics as the drainage areas of rivers; properties of
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images

magazines, and government reports; and the half-lives of

radioactive atoms!

“1” about 30% of the time, with “2” about 18% of time,
and with “3” about 12.5% of the time. Larger digits occur
less often. For example, less than 5% of the numbers in
circumstances such as these begin with the digit 9. This
is in dramatic contrast to a random sampling situation, in
which each of the digits 1 through 9 has an equal chance 8. Focus Problem: For online student
Benford’s Law resources, visit theyou
Again, suppose Brase/Brase,
are the auditor for a very
Understandable Statistics, 12th edition web site
of appearing. at http://www.cengage.com/statistics/brase
-
puter data bank (see Problem 7). You draw a random sample of n 5 228 numbers
r 5 92 p represent the popu-

i. Test the claim that p is more than 0.301. Use a 5 0.01.

▲ Chapter Focus Problems ii. If p is in fact larger than 0.301, it would seem there are too many num-

The Preview Questions in each chapter are followed by a

Focus Problem, which serves as a more specific example of from the point of view of the Internal Revenue Service. Comment from
what questions the student will soon be able to answer. The the perspective of the Federal Bureau of Investigation as it looks for
Focus Problems are set within appropriate applications and
iii. Comment on the following statement: “If we reject the null hypothesis at
are incorporated into the end-of-section exercises, giving a, we have not proved H0 to be false. We can say that
students the opportunity to test their understanding. the probability is a that we made a mistake in rejecting H0.” Based on the
outcome of the test, would you recommend further investigation before
accusing the company of fraud?
x
Focus Points 
SECTION 3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode,
Each section opens with bul- Median, and Mean
leted Focus Points describing FOCUS POINTS
the primary learning objectives t Compute mean, median, and mode from raw data.
t Interpret what mean, median, and mode tell you.
of the section. t Explain how mean, median, and mode can be affected by extreme data values.
t What is a trimmed mean? How do you compute it?
t Compute a weighted average.

The average price of an ounce of gold is $1350. The Zippy car averages 39 miles
This section can be covered quickly. Good per gallon on the highway. A survey showed the average shoe size for women is
discussion topics include The Story of Old size 9.
Faithful in Data Highlights, Problem 1; Linking In each of the preceding statements, one number is used to describe the entire
Concepts, Problem 1; and the trade winds of
sample or population. Such a number is called an average. There are many ways to
Hawaii (Using Technology).
compute averages, but we will study only three of the major ones.
Average The easiest average to compute is the mode.

Mode The mode of a data set is the value that occurs most frequently. Note: If a data set
has no single value that occurs more frequently than any other, then that data set
has no mode.

EXAMPLE 1 Mode
Count the letters in each word of this sentence and give the mode. The numbers of
letters in the words of the sentence are

5 3 7 2 4 4 2 4 8 3 4 3 4

 Looking Forward
LOOKING FORWARD
This feature shows students where the presented material will be used
In later chapters we will use information based later. It helps motivate students to pay a little extra attention to key
topics.
on a sample and sample statistics to estimate
population parameters (Chapter 7) or make
decisions about the value of population param-
eters (Chapter 8).

CHAPTER REVIEW
SUMMARY
In this chapter, you’ve seen that statistics is the study of how r
Sampling strategies, including simple random,
to collect, organize, analyze, and interpret numerical infor-
mation from populations or samples. This chapter discussed Inferential techniques presented in this text are based
some of the features of data and ways to collect data. In on simple random samples.
particular, the chapter discussed r
Methods of obtaining data: Use of a census, simula-
r
Individuals or subjects of a study and the variables tion, observational studies, experiments, and surveys
associated with those individuals r
Concerns: Undercoverage of a population, nonre-
r
sponse, bias in data from surveys and other factors,
levels of measurement of data effects of confounding or lurking variables on other
r
Sample and population data. Summary measurements variables, generalization of study results beyond the
from sample data are called statistics, and those from population of the study, and study sponsorship
populations are called parameters.

▲ Chapter Summaries
The Summary within each Chapter Review feature now also appears in bulleted
form, so students can see what they need to know at a glance.
xi
Real-World Skills
Statistics is not done in a vacuum. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods gives students valu-
able skills for the real world with technology instruction, genuine applications, actual data, and group
projects.

REVISED! Tech Notes  > Tech Notes Box-and-Whisker Plot

Both Minitab and the TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire calculators support box-
and-whisker plots. On the TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire, the quartiles Q1 and Q3
Tech Notes appearing throughout the text are calculated as we calculate them in this text. In Minitab and Excel 2013, they are
give students helpful hints on using TI- calculated using a slightly different process.
84Plus and TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus Keypad) Press STATPLOT ➤On.
keypad) and TI-83Plus calculators, Highlight box plot. Use Trace and the arrow keys to display the values of the
Microsoft Excel 2013, Minitab, and Minitab
Express to solve a problem. They include
display screens to help students visualize
and better understand the solution.

Med = 221.5

Excel 2013 Does not produce box-and-whisker plot. However, each value of the
Home ribbon, click the Insert Function
fx. In the dialogue box, select Statistical as the category and scroll to Quartile. In

> USING TECHNOLOGY

the dialogue box, enter the data location and then enter the number of the value you

Minitab Press Graph ➤ Boxplot. In the dialogue box, set Data View to IQRange Box.
MinitabExpress Press Graph ➤ Boxplot ➤ simple.

Binomial Distributions -
Although tables of binomial probabilities can be found in priate subtraction of probabilities, rather than addition of
most libraries, such tables are often inadequate. Either the
value of p (the probability of success on a trial) you are look- 3 to 7 easier.
ing for is not in the table, or the value of n (the number 3. Estimate the probability that Juneau will have at most 7
of trials) you are looking for is too large for the table. In clear days in December.
Chapter 6, we will study the normal approximation to the bi- 4. Estimate the probability that Seattle will have from 5 to
nomial. This approximation is a great help in many practical 10 (including 5 and 10) clear days in December.
5. Estimate the probability that Hilo will have at least 12
 REVISED! Using Technology
applications. Even so, we sometimes use the formula for the
binomial probability distribution on a computer or graphing clear days in December.
calculator to compute the probability we want. 6. Estimate the probability that Phoenix will have 20 or Further technology instruction is
more clear days in December. available at the end of each chapter in
Applications 7. Estimate the probability that Las Vegas will have from
The following percentages were obtained over many years 20 to 25 (including 20 and 25) clear days in December. the Using Technology section. Problems
of observation by the U.S. Weather Bureau. All data listed Technology Hints are presented with real-world data from
are for the month of December.
TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84 a variety of disciplines that can be
Long-Term Mean % of Plus keypad), Excel 2013, Minitab/MinitabExpress
Location Clear Days in Dec.
solved by using TI-84Plus and TI-nspire
Juneau, Alaska 18% for binomial distribution functions on the TI-84Plus/
(with TI-84Plus keypad) and TI-83Plus
Seattle, Washington 24% TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus keypad) calculators, calculators, Microsoft Excel 2013, Minitab,
Hilo, Hawaii 36% Excel 2013, Minitab/MinitabExpress, and SPSS.
Honolulu, Hawaii 60%
and Minitab Express.
SPSS
Las Vegas, Nevada 75%
In SPSS, the function PDF.BINOM(q,n,p) gives the prob-
Phoenix, Arizona 77%
ability of q successes out of n trials, where p is the prob-
Adapted from Local Climatological Data, U.S. Weather Bureau publication, “Normals, ability of success on a single trial. In the data editor, name
Means, and Extremes” Table.
a variable r and enter values 0 through n. Name another
In the locations listed, the month of December is a rela- variable Prob_r. Then use the menu choices Transform ➤
tively stable month with respect to weather. Since weather Compute. In the dialogue box, use Prob_r for the target
patterns from one day to the next are more or less the same, variable. In the function group, select PDF and Noncentral
it is reasonable to use a binomial probability model. PDF. In the function box, select PDF.BINOM(q,n,p). Use
1. Let r be the number of clear days in December. Since the variable r for q and appropriate values for n and p. Note
December has 31 days, 0 r 31. Using appropriate that the function CDF.BINOM(q,n,p), from the CDF and
Noncentral CDF group, gives the cumulative probability of
the probability P(r) for each of the listed locations when 0 through q successes.
r 5 0, 1, 2, . . . , 31.
2. For each location, what is the expected value of the
probability distribution? What is the standard deviation?

xii
 EXAMPLE 13 Central Limit Theorem
A certain strain of bacteria occurs in all raw milk. Let x be the bacteria count per
milliliter of milk. The health department has found that if the milk is not contami-
 UPDATED! Applications
nated, then x has a distribution that is more or less mound-shaped and symmetric. Real-world applications are used
The mean of the x distribution is m 5 2500, and the standard deviation is s 5 300.
In a large commercial dairy, the health inspector takes 42 random samples of the milk from the beginning to introduce each
produced each day. At the end of the day, the bacteria count in each of the 42 samples statistical process. Rather than just
is averaged to obtain the sample mean bacteria count x. crunching numbers, students come
(a) Assuming the milk is not contaminated, what is the distribution of x? to appreciate the value of statistics
SOLUTION: The sample size is n 5 42. Since this value exceeds 30, the central
through relevant examples.
limit theorem applies, and we know that x will be approximately normal, with
mean and standard deviation

11. Pain Management: Laser Therapy “Effect of Helium-Neon Laser

Auriculotherapy on Experimental Pain Threshold” is the title of an article in
the journal Physical Therapy (Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 24–30). In this article, laser
therapy was discussed as a useful alternative to drugs in pain management of
chronically ill patients. To measure pain threshold, a machine was used that de-
livered low-voltage direct current to different parts of the body (wrist, neck, and
back). The machine measured current in milliamperes (mA). The pretreatment

Most exercises in each section  detectable) at m 5 3.15 mA with standard deviation s 5 1.45 mA. Assume that
are applications problems. the distribution of threshold pain, measured in milliamperes, is symmetric and
more or less mound-shaped. Use the empirical rule to
(a) estimate a range of milliamperes centered about the mean in which about
68% of the experimental group had a threshold of pain.
(b) estimate a range of milliamperes centered about the mean in which about
95% of the experimental group had a threshold of pain.
12. Control Charts: Yellowstone National Park Yellowstone Park Medical
Services (YPMS) provides emergency health care for park visitors. Such
health care includes treatment for everything from indigestion and sunburn
to more serious injuries. A recent issue of Yellowstone Today (National Park

DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Break into small groups and discuss the following topics. Organize a brief outline in
GROUP PROJECTS which you summarize the main points of your group discussion.
 Data Highlights: Group
1.Examine Figure 2-20, “Everyone Agrees: Slobs Make Worst Roommates.”
This is a clustered bar graph because two percentages are given for each re-
sponse category: responses from men and responses from women. Comment
about how the artistic rendition has slightly changed the format of a bar graph. Projects
Do the bars seem to have lengths that accurately the relative percentages
of the responses? In your own opinion, does the artistic rendition enhance or Using Group Projects, students gain
confuse the information? Explain. Which characteristic of “worst roommates” experience working with others by
does the graphic seem to illustrate? Can this graph be considered a Pareto chart
for men? for women? Why or why not? From the information given in the - discussing a topic, analyzing data,
ure, do you think the survey just listed the four given annoying characteristics? and collaborating to formulate their
Do you think a respondent could choose more than one characteristic? Explain
response to the questions posed in
FIGURE 2-20 the exercise.

Source: Advantage Business Research for Mattel Compatibility

xiii
Making the Jump
Get to the “Aha!” moment faster. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods provides the push
students need to get there through guidance and example.

 Procedures and
PROCEDURE
Requirements
How to test M when S is known Procedure display boxes summarize
simple step-by-step strategies for
Requirements
carrying out statistical procedures
Let x be a random variable appropriate to your application. Obtain a simple and methods as they are intro-
random sample (of size n) of x values from which you compute the sample duced. Requirements for using
mean x. The value of s is already known (perhaps from a previous study). the procedures are also stated.
If you can assume that x has a normal distribution, then any sample size n Students can refer back to these
will work. If you cannot assume this, then use a sample size n 30. boxes as they practice using the
Procedure procedures.
1. In the context of the application, state the null and alternate hypothe-
ses and set the a.
2. Use the known s, the sample size n, the value of x from the sample, and m
from the null hypothesis to compute the standardized sample test statistic.

x m
z5 GUIDED EXERCISE 11 Probability Regarding x
s
1n In mountain country, major highways sometimes use tunnels instead of long, winding roads over high passes. However,
too many vehicles in a tunnel at the same time can cause a hazardous situation. Traffic engineers are studying a long
3. Use the standard tunnel in Colorado.
normal distribution and theIf x represents
type ofthetest,
time for a vehicle to go
one-tailed orthrough the tunnel, it is known that the x distribution
has mean m 5 12.1 minutes and standard deviation s 5 3.8 minutes under ordinary traffic conditions. From a
P-value corresponding to the test statistic.
histogram of x values, it was found that the x distribution is mound-shaped with some symmetry about the mean.
4. Conclude the test. If P-value a, then reject H0. If P-value 7 a,
Engineers have calculated that, on average, vehicles should spend from 11 to 13 minutes in the tunnel. If
then do not reject H0. the time is less than 11 minutes, traffic is moving too fast for safe travel in the tunnel. If the time is more than
5. Interpret your conclusion in 13
theminutes,
contextthereof
is athe
problem of bad air quality (too much carbon monoxide and other pollutants).
application.
Under ordinary conditions, there are about 50 vehicles in the tunnel at one time. What is the probability that the
mean time for 50 vehicles in the tunnel will be from 11 to 13 minutes?
We will answer this question in steps.

(a) Let x represent the sample mean based on sam- From the central limit theorem, we expect the x dis-
ples of size 50. Describe the x distribution. tribution to be approximately normal, with mean and
standard deviation
s 3.8
mx 5 m 5 12.1 sx 5 5 < 0.54
1n 150

(b) Find P111 6 x 6 132. We convert the interval

11 6 x 6 13
Jupiterimages/Stockbyte/Getty Images

to a standard z interval and use the standard normal

probability table to find our answer. Since
x m x 12.1
Guided Exercises  z5
s/ 1n
<
0.54
11 12.1
Students gain experience with new x 5 11 converts to z < 5 2.04
0.54
procedures and methods through 13 12.1
Guided Exercises. Beside each problem and x 5 13 converts to z < 5 1.67
0.54
in a Guided Exercise, a completely Therefore,
worked-out solution appears for im- P111 6 x 6 132 5 P1 2.04 6 z 6 1.672
mediate reinforcement. 5 0.9525 0.0207
5 0.9318

(c) Interpret your answer to part (b). It seems that about 93% of the time, there should be no
xiv safety hazard for average traffic flow.
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