POPULATION DYNAMICS

POPULATION DYNAMICS

WHAT DO I NEED TO BE ABLE TO DO:

• Describe and give reasons for the rapid increase in the world's population

• Show an understanding of over-population and under-population

• Understand the main causes of change in population size

• Give reasons for contrasting rates of natural population change

• Describe and evaluate population policies

• Explain and give reasons for population migration

• Demonstrate an understanding of the impacts of migration

• Identify and give reasons for and implications of different types of population structure

• Describe the factors influencing the density and distribution of population

Global Population Change

 In October 2011 the world's population reached the 7 billion mark and has continued to grow at an exponential rate.
This has brought with it a lot of discussion about the impacts of having such a rapidly growing population.
As some countries struggle with ageing and declining populations other face a different problem as they try to
restrict growth through a variety of methods. Both pose a number of challenges and governments must attempt to
manage these challenges and reduce the negative impacts.

Population refers to the number of people living in a particular area. The global population is now estimated to be
over 8 billion and is likely to exceed 9 billion by 2050. Although it has grown throughout history it has not done so at
a steady rate. The global population increased at a relative slow but steady rate until around 1900. After which the
growth has been exponential reflecting advancements in medical technology and healthcare.

The graph shows this pattern of accelerating growth (including the predicted future growth). There are
three main causes of population change, which are birth rate, death rate and migration.

1. Birth Rate - the number of live births per 1,000 people of the population per year

2. Death Rate - the number of deaths per 1,000 people of the population per year

3. Migration - the movement of people in and out of an area

  NATURAL INCREASE when birth rate exceeds death rate so the population rises

 NATURAL DECREASE when death rate exceeds birth rate so the population declines

 Net migration- the difference between immigration and emigration

 Immigration – the movement of people into a country

 Emigration – the movement of people out of their country to another country.

Population and Development

The Demographic Transition Model

The population of MEDCs (more economically developed countries) and LEDCs (less economically
developed countries) differs greatly. In LEDCs death rates are usually higher, due to the lack of adequate
healthcare, poor sanitation, limited access to clean water and limited food supplies. Whereas in MEDCs
birth rates tend to be lower, due to the availability of contraceptions and family planning, women being
more educated, the expense of raising a child, low infant mortality rate and the different cultural
traditions.
Therefore it is clear that birth rate and death rate change as a country develops. This relationship is
 shown by the Demographic Transition Model. As a country passes through the demographic transitions
model, the total population rises. Most LEDCs are at stage 2 or 3, whilst most MEDCs are now at stage 4
of the model (some have entered stage 5).

BIRTH RATE

HIGH

• lack of contraception

• religious beliefs

• agricultural based society

• high infant mortality

• lack of welfare available to the elderly

• pro-natalist policies

LOW

• availability and affordability of contraception

• freedom of women

• improved levels of education

• low infant mortality

• introduction of a welfare state

• development of secondary and tertiary economies

• increased cost of raising a child

• rise in the average age of marriage

• anti-natalist policies

DEATH RATE

HIGH LOW

 poor medical care  availability of clean water

 poor hygiene and sanitation  improved medical care

  shortage of clean safe water  immunisation programmes

 poor diet  improved knowledge of diet and wellbeing

 natural disasters  improved levels of exercise

 conflicts and war  improved preventative testing

 sedentary lifestyle

 high prevalence of diseases

 high levels of drug or alcohol use

Population Structure

As a country develops the birth rate and death rate

will change, this will have impacts on the population
structure of the country. Population pyramids show
the structure or composition of a country’s
population in terms of gender and age. It is a type
of graph that is divided into males and females and
then by age group.
Not all members of the population contribute to the
economy equally, they can therefore be divided
into three groups.

 YOUNG DEPENDENTS the percentage of

the population under the age of 16

 OLD DEPENDENTS the percentage of the

population over the age of 65

 ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE people between 16 LEDC Population Pyramid

and 65, these are the working group who
effectively support the dependent
population

The dependency ratio is the ration between the

amount of dependents and the economically active.
If a country has a higher number of dependents in
comparison to the working population
(economically active) then they will face a high
economic burden as they try to support the large
number of dependents. Whereas if a country has a
high number of people working in comparison to
those who are dependent they will face less of an
economic challenge in trying to support their
dependent population.
The population pyramid of an LEDC will have an
extremely wide base, which shows that there are a
lot of young dependants signalling a high birth rate.
LEDCs will be very triangular in shape, show that
the life expectancy is low and the death rate is
high.
The population pyramid for an MEDC will have a
narrower base than the pyramid of an LEDC. This is
because the birth rate is lower in MEDCs. They are
also barrel shaped, showing that the death rate is
low. Population pyramids for MEDCs are also taller
than LEDCs because of the increased life
expectancy.

MEDC Population Pyramid

Dependent Populations

Due to the declining birth rate of many MEDCs today and the already low death rates many MEDCs, such
as Japan, are now facing a potential crisis which is referred as an ageing population

 AGEING POPULATION the number of old dependents is increasing within a country.

PROBLEMS OF AN AGEING SOLUTIONS TO AN AGEING POPULATIONS

POPULATION

 Increase the retirement age e.g. the UK has increased it from 65 to 67

 Shortage of workers
 Increase the amount of tax charged
 Fewer works will mean the
 Introduce private healthcare
government receives fewer
taxes  Encourage private pensions
 Greater pressure on healthcare  Encourage economic immigration
 Greater pressure on the  Introduce a pro-natal policy
welfare state (pensions)

 Greater need for care homes

and services for the elderly

Whilst it can be a problem to have too many old people within a country, it can also be a problem if a
country has too many young people. However, unlike old dependents it can also be a problem if a
 country has too few young dependents.

 YOUTHFUL POPULATION the number of young dependents is increasing within a country.

PROBLEMS OF A YOUTHFUL POPULATION (TOO MANY) SOLUTIONS TO A YOUTHFUL POPULATION (TOO MANY)

 Increased demand for childcare  Introduce an anti-natal policy

 Greater pressure on education system  Increase family planning

 Greater pressure on healthcare  Increase education of women

 Increased dependency ratio

PROBLEMS OF TOO FEW YOUNG DEPENDENTS SOLUTIONS TO TOO FEW YOUNG DEPENDENTS

 Closure of child related services  Introduce a population policy

 Fewer economically active to pay taxes in the  Subsidise childcare and education
future

 Increase in the average age of the population

 Population decline

Population Change in LEDCs

Most LEDCs are experiencing rapid population growth, as they are in stage 2 or 3 of the demographic
transition model. This means they have a falling death rate, due to improving health care, while birth
rates remain high. This is as a result on the limited access to family planning services and education
about contraception. Children are also viewed as a valuable source of labour and income. Infant
mortality rates are also higher, resulting in women having many children to ensure the survival of some
of their children through to adulthood.
This can have dramatic impacts on an LEDCs, hindering their efforts at developing. Therefore many
governments and international bodies and charities are working to reduce birth rates and slow down
rates of population growth.

Anti-natal Population Policy in China

In the 1950s China was experiencing a population growth rate of 1.9%, as previous governments had
encouraged couples to have large families to produce a large workforce. However, they soon realised
that this was unsustainable and a series of famines occurred. In the late 1970s, the Chinese government
began to introduce measures in an attempt to reduce birth rate and slow population growth. The most
important of the new measures was the ‘One-Child Policy’, which stated that couples could only have
one child.
The One-Child Policy was established in 1979 and meant that each couple was only allowed one child.
Couples would have to seek permission to have a child. They would then receive a series of rewards,
ranging from increased access to education and healthcare to greater availability of loans.
This policy was strictly enforced with some women undergoing forced abortions and sterilisation.
Although the policy was strictly enforced it was resisted in many rural areas, which made it much more
difficult to control.
The ‘One-Child Policy’ was incredibly effective, with population growth rate falling from 1.9% to 0.7%
and almost 400 million births being prevented. However, it has resulted in a gender imbalance as many
prefer male offspring to females. This falling birth rate has led to social problems, as there are now
fewer economically active individuals to support a growing number of elderly dependants.

Population Change in MEDCs

Most MEDCs are experiencing slow rates of population growth and some are even experiencing
population decline. Meaning that most MEDCs are in stage 4 of the demographic transition model. Some
countries have a declining population, so are entering stage 5.
The average life expectancy in MEDCs is rising due to improved healthcare, greater knowledge of
balanced diets and improved living standards. This is resulting in many MEDCs experiencing an ageing
population, meaning they have a large number of elderly dependants, fewer economically active people
and a declining population.

Pro-natal Population Policy in France

 France, like many European countries, has a low fertility rate due to the greater awareness and
education of people about family planning, women pursuing careers, later marriages and state benefits.
This can result in governments introducing pro-natal polices to ensure that the birth rate meets the
replacement level.
France put in place incentives to encourage three-children families. These incentives included offering
cash incentives, reduced transport fares, tax breaks, greater paternal leave and subsided daycare for
families with 3 children. This has resulted in the fertility rate within France increasing over recent years.

POPULATION AND RESOURCES

Population growth is related to the amount of resources available, for example water, wood and
minerals. The number of people the environment can support without there being any negative
effects on the population is referred to as the carrying capacity. Some countries have the perfect
number of people that can be supported, however, this not always the case.

 Overpopulation There are more people than the number of resources available, so the
environment is degraded

 Underpopulation There are fewer people than the carrying capacity, so the resources
cannot be fully utilised and the economic system usually declines

PROBLEMS OF OVERPOPULATION PROBLEMS OF UNDERPOPULATION

 There could be unemployment because there are not enough jobs  There are a shortage of workers
for everyone
 There will be less people
 There could be a shortage of schools and hospitals paying tax

 There could be a shortage of houses and informal settlements grow  Schools and hospitals may close
because there are not enough
 Congestion may increase as there are more cars, buses, etc. on the
clients
road
 Public transport links might
 Prices may increase as demand for houses, resources, etc. increase
close because of less customers
(inflation)
 There may be less innovation
 There may be a shortage of clean drinking water, electricity, etc.
and development (less brain
 There may be an increase in air, noise and water pollution e.g. open power)
sewers, fires, etc.
 Not possible to exploit all
 The rural-urban fringe may be damaged as informal settlements are resources
built
 Hard to defend country

 Necessary to attract migrants

 Causes of overpopulation:
-Flat land- good for farming + building

-Access to coast- trade, fishing, travel routes

-Fertile soil/good quality- good for crops

-Mild climate- perfect for farming, pleasant to live in

-High birth rate (lack of access to contraception, no family planning)

-High immigration rate-Low death rate/ high life expectancy

Causes of underpopulation:
-Landlocked-Low BR/ High DR/ Low LE

-Strict immigration policies

-Harsh climate - unpleasant + unsuitable for farming

-Mountainous terrain + poor soil - hard to live one and to build on

-Far from essential resources e.g water

-Poor soil - unsuitable for farming

A country which is over-populated: Bangladesh

Population - 153 million
Population density- 1062/km² Land area - 147,000 km²

Natural increase- 1.6%

• Resource poor country

• Lack of natural resources

• In 1971, the population was 75 million, now, it is more than the double of it: showing an increasing
population growth rate.

• High poverty leads to a lower standard of living, increasing the need of children to earn to improve the
economy.

• 4/5th of the population live in rural areas

• 40% of the population is under-employed

• Cyclones and flooding makes the situation worse, because 80% are situated on the floodplains of
Ganges, Brahamaputra and Meghna. People living there reach the higher grounds, increasing the crowd
of the already crowded area. This increase rural-to-urban migration (one of the problems faced by
Bangladesh due to overpopulation)
• The capital city Dhaka faces increased population as people move to Dhaka to fulfil their basic needs.
As the population increases, Dhaka also faces pressure of housing, healthcare, water and sanitation.

• The population density of Dhaka - 43000/km²; one of the largest population densities in the world.

• Only 1 qualified doctor for 25,000 village people!

• Due to the increased population, problems faced by Dhaka include more traffic and congestion, and
increasing unemployment. Moreover, getting admission became extremely difficult - 20 seats for 20,000
people.

• Bangladesh’s land area is relatively less than its population, making it a densely populated country.

• The population density is 20 times the global average!

• A few more causes include fertile land for agriculture, a high illiteracy rate and no or little awareness of
cons of a larger population.

Causes for a high growth rate- • High birth rates • High infant mortality rates- 43/1000 (IMR- Infant
mortality is the death of young children under the age of 1. This death toll is measured by the infant
mortality rate, which is the number of deaths of children under one year of age per 1000 live births.)

• Increased poverty so increase need of children for the development of the economy.

• High illiteracy rate - 73.91%

• No awareness of contraception

• No emancipation of women

• Increased subsistence farming as 4/5th live in rural areas.

Causes for high density- • Land area is relatively less than the population

• A very fertile region - attracting farmers and others to live there

• Rural to urban migration in Dhaka • Rice production. • (you can include other causes too - mentioned
above)

Overpopulation in Nigeria

Nigeria occupies only 3% of the African landmass but is home to 15% of its people, it is therefore
incredibly overpopulated.

This has resulted in resources becoming depleted, increased levels of air and water pollution, and a lack
of essential services such as healthcare and education.

Overcrowding has resulted in the spreading of disease, many living with inadequate sanitation and
scarcity of resources of medical care and education.

The hardship faced by many has led to increased levels of crime and over-congestion on many of the
country’s roads and public transport.
A country which is under-populated: Australia
Population - 22 million

Population density- 3/km²

Rate of natural change - 0.7%

Infant mortality rate - 4/1000

Land area- 7.7 million km² (6th largest in the world)

Fertility rate- 1.8/woman

• Resource rich country

• Exports raw materials like coal, iron ore, gold, etc.

• Land area is huge, therefore, population density is quite less.

• There is an uneven population distribution -

• Maximum people live on the fertile coastlines

• Some parts of Australia have 0 population

• There is a positive net migration, leading to a good quality life.

Causes of underpopulation

• There is developed infrastructure and improved health and education.

• Improved levels of healthcare

• Availability and affordability of contraception

• Low fertility rates

• Highly skilled workers are paid high wages, therefore, less need of children

• Emancipation of women

Problems -

• Shortage of workers

• Not possible to exploit all resources

• Less tax payers, therefore, the government receives less money

• Schools and hospitals may close

• Less brain power in the future ➤ Less innovation ➤ Less development of the economy

• Public transport links may close

• Dependancy ratio may increase

Canada: Underpopulation
Canada is regarded as an underpopulated country as the carrying capacity is much higher than the
current population. The 38 million people in Canada cannot fully exploit the available resources and
technology. Canada has a population density of 3.93 people per square kilometer. Canada’s resources
include; crude oil, natural gas, coal, gold, nickel, copper etc.

Problems of underpopulation in Canada:

 Labour shortage: 32% of Canadian employers are encountering difficulties in hiring workers due to a
lack of applicants

 Services (eg. schools, hospitals and transport) close down as there are not enough customers.

 Less innovation and development (lee brain power)

 Difficulties in defending the country

By Jef Wallace
Canada has tried to promote immigration to maintain the fairly high standard of living, but in the
previous decades less people are migrating to Canada, than during the 1950’s and 1960’s.

Solutions:

 relaxing immigrant policies and visa requirements to encourage migration

 Pro-natal goverment support to increase the birth rate eg. subsidies and parental leave programmes

 allow pensioners to continue working

Overpopulation and Underpopulation in Indonesia

 Indonesia is a group of over 13,000 islands in South East Asia. Most of Indonesia’s 200 million people live
in the islands of Java, Bali, Lombok and Madura, which as a result are densely populated. Java alone is
home to 60% of Indonesia’s population, whilst it only accounts for 7% of the total landmass. Therefore
there are a number of islands which are sparsely populated.
The Indonesian government has adopted the idea of transmigration to try to redistribute the
population, persuading people to move from densely populated islands to sparsely populated islands. To
encourage people to move they were offered incentives, ranging from free housing to free land
allocations.

Population Distribution

Population density is a measure of how many people are living in a given area and is usually expressed
as the number of people per km2. Population density varies dramatically from country to country, with
some countries such as Australia having a very low population density, whereas others like Japan have a
much higher population density.
Within Australia the population is very uneven in its distribution, with many people opting to live in
coastal areas. There is a high concentration of people living along the south east coast in cities such as
Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney, some on the south west coast around Perth and a small concentration
around the coast of Tasmania. Whereas there are very few people living in the centre or north of
Australia. We can therefore say that whilst the overall population density of Australia is low, some
regions are densely populated, such as the coast, whilst others are sparsely populated, such as the
centre.

CAUSES OF SPARSE POPULATION CAUSES OF DENSE POPULATION

 mountainous landscape  coastal area

 extreme climate  flat landscape

 heavily forested  close to water supply

 prone to flooding  good natural resources

 little job availability  fertile agricultural land

 few natural resources  well developed transport links

 lack of services e.g.  good job availability

education and healthcare
 good communications
 prone to natural disaster
 good quality services e.g. education and healthcare

Migration

Migration is the movement of people from one place to another, this can be within the same country
(internal) or between countries (international). Migrants can be classified as immigrants or emigrants.

 Emigration - when someone leaves a country

 Immigration - when someone enters a country

People can migrate for economic, social, political or environmental reasons.

 Economic - moving to find employment or follow a particular career path

 Social - moving to be close to family or for a better quality of life

 Political - moving to escape political persecution or war

 Environmental - causes of migration include natural disasters

The majority of migrants have moved out of choice, these are called voluntary or economic migrants.
However, some forced to migrate, such as those escaping a natural disaster or war, these are called
forced migrants. Forced migrants can also be called refugees, they have left their homes and do not
have a clear idea where they will settle.
The reasons why people can classified as either push factors or pull factors.

 Push Factors - the reasons why people leave an area

 Pull Factors - the reasons why people move to a particular area

Migration usually happens as a result of a combination of these push and pull factors.
 Migration can bring a number of benefits to both the country of origin (source country) and the
destination country (host country).

SOURCE COUNTRY HOST COUNTRY

 Reduces pressure on resources  Overcome labour shortages

 Decline in birth rate  Dirty unskilled jobs are filled

 Migrants can bring back new skills  Will work long hours for low salaries

 Money is sent back  Cultural advantages and links

Migration can bring a number of problems to both the country of origin (source country) and the
destination country (host country).

SOURCE COUNTRY HOST COUNTRY

 Loss of people in the working age group  Pressure on jobs

 Loss of educated and skilled people  Low quality and overcrowded housing

 Division of families  Racism

 Left with an elderly population  Language barriers and problems

International migrants also experience a number of problems.

  Lack of qualifications or education me ands they tend to fill unskilled jobs or work informally

 Many end up in low-paid jobs

 Poor working conditions where they are exploited by their employers

 Many cannot speak the language

 Some are unable to obtain employment

 Cannot afford education or healthcare

 Live in poor conditions which are ofter overcrowded

 Discrimination and racism

 Trouble adapting to local culture or religion

International Migration from Poland to the UK

In 2004 eight eastern European countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia , Lithuania,
Slovakia and Slovenia) joined the European Union, these countries have been named the A8 countries.
These countries had a high level of unemployment and wages around 40% of the EU average. With
membership to the EU comes the freedom of movement, meaning many opt to migrate to countries
with greater economic opportunities. In 2004 600 000 migrants chose to work in the UK and 62% of
these were from Poland.

FOR THE UK NEGATIVE

FOR POLAND

 Fewer jobs for

unskilled UK
workers

 May move back

once they have
earned money

 Anti-immigration
issues and racism
POSITIVE
  Services such as
hospitals and
 Jobs filled that UK workers do
schools cannot
not want
cope with extra
 Can pay lower wages numbers

 Will work long hours

 Increased population will

spend more in the local
economy
POSITIVE NEGATIVE

 Change of a job  May leave the family at

home
 Better pay than Poland
 May encounter hostility in
 Can save money and return
the UK
to improve life in Poland
 Language and cultural
 Chance to get away from
issues in the UK
living with parents as they
cannot afford to move out  May struggle to obtain
housing in the UK; some
end up homeless

HIV and AIDs

First discovered in 1981, HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) is believed to have originated from
monkeys and been passed to humans via bushmeat. AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) has
claimed the lives of over 25 millions people, with a further 3 million becoming infected in the last 5
years.
HIV is a virus which is transmitted through infected bodily fluids (blood, seamen and breast milk). The
infected bodily fluid must come into contact with another persons bodily fluid or mucous membrane in
order for the virus to be contracted. The most common ways of transmitting HIV are:

 Unprotected sexual intercourse with a HIV sufferer

 Sharing needles with an infect HIV sufferer (common amongst drug users)

 Receiving a blood transfer from infected blood (nearly all blood around the world is now tested)

 Breast feeding

 Mother to unborn child (this can be prevented if the mother knows that she is infected)

HIV will ultimately develop into AIDS, which is the name for all the symptoms you catch when you
immune system has become severely degraded. Most people will therefore die from minor aliments, as
their weakened immune systems are unable to cope. When HIV was first discovered, victims would have
a fairly short like expectancy (a few years). However, even though there is still no cure peoples lives can
be prolonged for years because of drugs designed to support your immune system.
Africa is the continent that has been hardest hit by HIV. As you can see from the map over 15% of the
adult population in Southern Africa suffer from HIV, this is as high as 40% in some countries like
 Botswana. However, even with these high figures, the true figures might be a lot higher because not
everyone has been tested.

CAUSES OF HIGH HIV RATES

 Lack of education about HIV

 Availability and affordability of condoms, as well as knowledge of how they are used

 Pologymy (the tradition of taking more than one wife)

 Lack of testing so many are unaware they have HIV

 Prostitution (many prostitutes are infected but don't know so continue to transmit the disease)

 Sexual crime

 Urban myths, so many believe urban myths about how they can prevent the transmission of HIV
e.g. Jacob Zuma believed a shower after sex would reduce chance of catching HIV

 Migrant population

 Religious belief as some religions don't allow the use of condoms

 Poor medical hygiene

IMPACTS OF HIV SOLUTIONS TO HIV

 People will experience a decline in their  Providing free condoms and educating people about how to
immune system, becoming sicker and use them correctly
possibly dieing
 Educating about what HIV is and explaining how the spread
 High cost of having to treat HIV and AIDS can be reduced and stopped
patients
 Test more people to find out who is infected
 There will be an effective increase in the
 Legalise prostitution to encourage more prostitutes to be
dependency ratio because less people will
tested and hopefully reduce the spread of HIV
be able to work because of sickness
 Anti-retroviral drugs can be sold cheaper so that more people
 The country may see a reduction in tourism
have access to them
and investment as people are reluctant to
travel to a country with high infection rates  Hopefully, scientists will eventually find a cure for HIV so that
it can be eliminated
 The country will have to pay large amounts
of money to be able to buy anti-retroviral  Encouraging no sex before marriage and trying to reduce the
drugs (this is not a cure, but it helps support number of peoples sexual partners
victims immune system)
 Try and reduce the stigma of HIV and AIDS so more people talk
 Life expectancy rapidly reduces in countries about it and are happy to be tested
with high infection rates and death rates
increase

 There are a large number of orphans as

many parents die

 There may be a shortage of workers which

can lead to economic decline and food
shortages. There may not be enough
essential workers like teachers