Unit-7
Unit-7
Exchange Rate
Regimes
Structure
7.0 Objectives
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Concepts
7.3 Importance of foreign exchange for the economy
7.4 Evolution of international exchange rate regimes
7.4.1 The Pre-World War I (WWI) financial order (1870–1914)
7.4.2 Between the World Wars (1919–1939)
7.4.3 The Bretton Woods Era (1945–1971)
7.4.4 The post-Bretton Woods system (1971–present)
7. 5 Forms of Exchange rate regime
7.5.1 Fixed exchange rate
7.5.2 Floating exchange rate
7.5.3 Managed floating
7.5.4 Recurrence of instability suggests a new regime
7.6 India’s exchange rate regime
7.7 Let us sum up
7.8 Key Words
7.9 Some Useful References
7.10 Answer/Hints to Check your Progress Exercises
7.0 OBJECTIVES
After studying this Unit, you should be able to:
explain the concepts of:
foreign exchange,
exchange rate, and exchange rate regimes;
distinguish between different forms of exchange rate regimes;
discuss the advantages and disadvantages of: fixed, floating, and managed
float;
trace briefly the historical development of international exchange rate
regimes;
examine operational aspects of the current exchange rate regimes; and
provide an overview of India’s exchange rate regime.
Contributed by Prof. S.K. Singh, Retd. Prof. IGNOU
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Exchange Rate and
Balance of Payments 7.1 INTRODUCTION
The exchange rate regime greatly impacts world trade and financial flows. The
volume of such transactions and the speed at which they are growing highlight
the crucial role of the exchange rate in today’s world, thereby making the
exchange rate regime a central piece of any national economic policy framework.
The choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime—floating, managed or fixed
arrangements—for individual countries is important. After all, an exchange rate
regime that looks soft to one observer may look hard to another—which reflects,
among other things, a lack of information among different players about foreign
exchange markets and purchases or sales of foreign exchange by central banks.
Which exchange rate regime and associated policies are appropriate for a country
depending on its circumstances? No country can afford to be entirely indifferent
to the behaviour of its exchange rate as it is closely related to the country's
monetary policy, with both depending on common factors of influence and
impact. In this unit, we discuss various aspects of the foreign exchange regime.
7.2 CONCEPTS
It is important to understand terms such as ‘foreign exchange’, ‘exchange rate’,
and ‘exchange rate regime’ as they are central to understanding the economy
around.
Foreign Exchange: ‘Foreign exchange’ refers to money denominated in a
currency other than the domestic currency. Foreign exchange can be cash, funds
available on credit cards and debit cards, and bank deposits.
Exchange rate: The rate at which a currency of one country exchanges for
another country's currency is called the ‘exchange rate'. The exchange rate can
either be expressed in terms of the number of units of domestic currency per unit
of foreign currency (direct quotation) as in the case of most currencies such as
the Indian rupee. For example, if the exchange rate between the rupee and the US
dollar (USD) is quoted as Rs.65, this means that Rs.65 is required to purchase
US$1.00. Or the number of units of foreign currency per unit of domestic
currency (indirect quotation) as in the case of some major trading currencies such
as the pound sterling and the Australian dollar. When the value of the domestic
currency increases in terms of another currency, it is referred to as a nominal
appreciation of the domestic currency. In contrast, a decrease in the value of the
domestic currency in terms of a foreign currency is known as nominal
depreciation.
Exchange rate regime: An exchange rate regime is the process by which a
country manages its currency with respect to foreign currencies. Exchange rate
regimes can broadly be categorized into two extremes: fixed and floating.
Between these, there are several combinations of the two. The exchange rate
system refers to the arrangement for the movement of the exchange rate.
138 Countries in the world operate under different exchange rate regimes.
Exchange Rate
7.3 IMPORTANCE OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOR Regimes
THE ECONOMY
The exchange rate is a key financial variable that affects decisions made by
foreign exchange investors, exporters, importers, bankers, businesses, financial
institutions, policymakers and tourists in the developed and developing world.
Exchange rate fluctuations affect the value of international investment portfolios,
the competitiveness of exports and imports, the value of international reserves,
the currency value of debt payments, and the cost to tourists in terms of the value
of their currency. Thus, exchange rate movements have important implications
for the economy's business cycle, trade and capital flows and are therefore crucial
for understanding financial developments and changes in economic policy.
The exchange rate performs the same function as other prices in a mixed
economy market. It provides information and incentives to guide decisions about
what to produce and what to consume. Considered as a price, however, the
exchange rate has special qualities. It is probably the single most important price
in the economy. It affects numerous other prices and touches the interests of
many people. This makes it the centre of much controversy with major exchange
rate changes inviting popular attention. The exchange rate further links the
general level of prices in the national economy with prices in other countries.
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2) Why do exchange rates exist?
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3) Why is it important to study the exchange rate regime?
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Exchange Rate and
Balance of Payments 7.4 EVOLUTION OF INTERNATIONAL
EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
The first modern international exchange rate regime was the gold standard. The
adoption of the Gold Standard was a gradual process. There was no international
legal foundation—no treaties, agreements or conferences. The various versions of
the gold standard used were:
a) gold specie standard,
b) gold bullion standard, and
c) gold exchange standard.
Fiat currencies are the norm in today's national economies and the current
exchange rate regime. Stages in the development of an exchange rate regime
may be grouped under the following four heads:
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2) Examine the exchange rate regime from the Bretton Woods era to the present.
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A B
In the Table, as one moves from point A on the left to point B on the right, both
the frequency of intervention by domestic monetary authorities and the required
level of international reserves tend to be lower. Under a pure fixed-exchange-rate
regime (point A), authorities intervene so that the value of the domestic currency
vis-a-vis another country's currency says the US Dollar, is maintained at a
constant rate. Under a freely floating exchange-rate regime, authorities do not
intervene in the market for foreign exchange and there is minimal need for
international reserves.
However, it remains true that there is no single exchange rate regime that is best
for all countries in all circumstances. Countries continue to have the scope to
choose the type of exchange rate regime that best suits their needs, always with
the proviso that the chosen regime must be credibly supported by policies
consistent with the choice. In light of important changes which include the
general increase in capital mobility and the abrupt reversals of capital flows to
developing and transition economies.
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The recurrence of concerns and phases of instability suggests a need to look for Exchange Rate
Regimes
durable remedies. Leaders continue to campaign for Bretton Woods II. It has
been a feature of the non-system that exchange rates have at times, moved to
positions that appear to be at variance with conditions prevailing in, and the
longer-term interests of, domestic economies. Currently, the world economy is
generally organised along flexible lines, but many countries choose to manage
their currencies either alongside or in partnership with other currencies and
countries.
There is a demand for reform in the International Monetary System. Zhou
Xiaochuan, the former governor of the People's Bank of China proposed a
gradual move towards increased use of IMF special drawing rights (SDRs) as a
centrally managed global reserve currency. His proposal attracted much
international attention. In December 2011, the Bank of England published a
paper arguing for reform, saying that the current regime has performed poorly
compared to the Bretton Woods system.
The steps required to move to an SDR-based system would be groundbreaking. A
somewhat less ambitious alternative would be to make the SDR one of the
alternative reserve currencies in a multicurrency system. Despite its relative
stability, the current ‘non-system’ has the inherent weaknesses of a setup with a
dominant country-issued reserve currency, wherein the reserve issuer runs fiscal
and external deficits to meet growing world demand for reserve assets and where
there is no ready mechanism forcing surplus or reserve-issuing countries to
adjust.
The current system has flaws, including occasional bouts of serious instability,
but it has proved its strength and resilience when the conceivable alternatives
have not. Charting the road ahead, the main task should be to help policymakers
think beyond the status quo in fundamental ways. In this spirit, serious
consideration should be given to alternatives to self-insurance, and to the
potential—practical and political—for other currencies to acquire a greater role
in the global reserve system. Such work could help the system evolve to shape
developments rather than the other way around, as has historically tended to be
the norm.
Neither the theory nor country experiences are very conclusive nor do exchange
rate regimes have their benefits and costs. The suitability of a particular regime,
however, depends on the policy target of a country.
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Exchange Rate and
Balance of Payments 2) Explain the differences between fixed and flexible exchange rate systems and
the advantages and disadvantages of each.
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3) What is Managed Floating Exchange Rate System?
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4) What are the main factors which determine the effectiveness of a floating
exchange rate policy? Currently, which type of system determines the values
of the major currencies, such as the Dollar, Yen, and Euro?
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5) What is a currency appreciation or depreciation? Point out the advantages and
disadvantages of each.
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6) Explain how the choice of an exchange rate regime alters the conduct of
monetary policy?
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7) Do you think the operation of non-system and recurrence of crisis needs a
new regime for currency?
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2) Discuss some of the features of the current exchange rate system in India.
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Krugman, Paul R., Maurice Obstfeld, and Marc Melitz (2014): International
Economics: Theory and Policy, 10th edition, Pearson Education Ltd., New Delhi
Mark Stone, et, al, (2008): Exchange Rate Regimes, Finance and, Development,
IMF, March
Mulhearn, Chris, et. al, (2008): Economics for Business, Chapter 14, Palgrave,
New York, USA
Pugel, Thomas A (2016): International Economics, Chapter 17, 16th edition, Tata
McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, Ltd, New Delhi
Salvatore, Dominick (2004): International Economy, 8th edition, Wiley India Pvt.
Ltd., New Delhi
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Exchange Rate and
Balance of Payments 7.10 ANSWERS/HINTS TO CHECK YOUR
PROGRESS EXERCISES
Check your progress 1
1) see section 7.2
2) see section 7.2
3) see section 7.3
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