Untitled
Untitled
4 15
2025 DR
1
1
Mohamed Nada
Statistics for Business and
Economics
Chapter 1
Statistics, Data, &
Statistical Thinking
Contents
1. The Science of Statistics
2. Types of Statistical Applications in Business
3. Fundamental Elements of Statistics
4. Processes
5. Types of Data
6. Collecting Data
7. The Role of Statistics in Managerial Decision
Making
1 ـLearning Objectives
1. Introduce the field of statistics
2. Demonstrate how statistics applies to business
3. Establish the link between statistics and data
4. Identify the different types of data and data-
collection methods
5. Differentiate between population and sample
data
6. Differentiate between descriptive and inferential
statistics
1.1
• Economics • Engineering
– Forecasting – Construction
– Demographics – Materials
• Sports • Business
– Individual & Team – Consumer Preferences
Performance – Financial Trends
Statistics: Two Processes
and
Descriptive Inferential
Statistics Statistics
Descriptive Statistics
1. Involves
• Collecting Data $
50
• Presenting Data
• Characterizing Data 25
2. Purpose 0
• Describe Data Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
X = 30.5 S2 = 113
Inferential Statistics
1. Involves
• Estimation Population?
• Hypothesis
Testing
2. Purpose
• Make decisions about
population characteristics
1.3
Fundamental Elements
of Statistics
Fundamental Elements
1. Experimental unit
• Object upon which we collect data
2. Population • P in Population
& Parameter
• All items of interest
• S in Sample
3. Variable & Statistic
• Characteristic of an individual
experimental unit
4. Sample
• Subset of the units of a population
Fundamental Elements
1. Statistical Inference
• Estimate or prediction or generalization about a
population based on information contained in a
sample
2. Measure of Reliability
• Statement (usually qualified) about the degree
of uncertainty associated with a statistical
inference
Four Elements of Descriptive
Statistical Problems
1. The population or sample of interest
2. One or more variables (characteristics of the
population or sample units) that are to be
investigated
3. Tables, graphs, or numerical summary tools
4. Identification of patterns in the data
Five Elements of Inferential
Statistical Problems
1. The population of interest
2. One or more variables (characteristics of the
population units) that are to be investigated
3. The sample of population units
4. The inference about the population based on
information contained in the sample
5. A measure of reliability for the inference
1.4
Processes
Process
A process is a series of actions or operations that
transforms inputs to outputs. A process produces or
generates output over time.
Process
A process whose operations or actions are unknown or
unspecified is called a black box.
Types of Data
Types of Data
Quantitative Qualitative
Data Data
Quantitative Data
Measured on a numeric 4
scale. 943
• Number of defective 52
items in a lot.
21
• Salaries of CEOs of 120 12
oil companies. 8
• Ages of employees at 71 3
a company.
Qualitative Data
Classified into categories.
• College major of each
student in a class.
• Gender of each employee
at a company.
• Method of payment
(cash, check, credit card).
$ Credit
1.6
Collecting Data
Obtaining Data
2. Need Statistical
Understanding
• Assumptions
• Limitations
Key Ideas
Types of Statistical Applications
Descriptive
1. Identify population and sample (collection
of experimental units)
2. Identify variable(s)
3. Collect data
4. Describe data
Key Ideas
Types of Statistical Applications
Inferential
1. Identify population (collection of all
experimental units)
2. Identify variable(s)
3. Collect sample data (subset of population)
4. Inference about population based on sample
5. Measure of reliability for inference
Key Ideas
Types of Data
Data-Collection Methods
1. Observational
2. Published source
3. Survey
4. Designed experiment
Key Ideas
1. Selection bias
2. Nonresponse bias
3. Measurement error
2. Descriptive Statistics
Stem Leaf
3 6
4
5 37
6 235899
7 011346778999
8 00111233568889
9 02238
2.Numerical descriptions
Let y denote a quantitative variable, with
observations y1 , y2 , y3 , … , yn
Mean:
y1 y2 ... yn yi
y
n n
Example: Annual per capita carbon dioxide emissions
(metric tons) for n = 8 largest nations in population
size
Ordered sample:
Median =
Mean y =
Example: Annual per capita carbon dioxide emissions
(metric tons) for n = 8 largest nations in population
size
Ordered sample: 0.3, 0.7, 1.2, 1.4, 1.8, 2.3, 9.9, 20.1
Median =
Mean y =
Example: Annual per capita carbon dioxide emissions
(metric tons) for n = 8 largest nations in population
size
Ordered sample: 0.3, 0.7, 1.2, 1.4, 1.8, 2.3, 9.9, 20.1
yi y
The variance of the n observations is
( yi y ) ( y1 y ) ... ( yn y )
2 2 2
s
2
n 1 n 1
The standard deviation s is the square root of the variance,
s s 2
Example: Political ideology
• For those in the student sample who attend religious
services at least once a week (n = 9 of the 60),
• y = 2, 3, 7, 5, 6, 7, 5, 6, 4
y 5.0,
(2 5) 2
(3 5) 2
... (4 5) 2
24
s
2
3.0
9 1 8
s 3.0 1.7
For entire sample (n = 60), mean = 3.0, standard deviation = 1.6, tends
to have similar variability but be more liberal
• Properties of the standard deviation:
• s 0, and only equals 0 if all observations are equal
• s increases with the amount of variation around the mean
• Division by n - 1 (not n) is due to technical reasons (later)
• s depends on the units of the data (e.g. measure euro vs $)
•Like mean, affected by outliers
p = 50: median
p = 25: lower quartile (LQ)
p = 75: upper quartile (UQ)
Happiness
Income Very Pretty Not too Total
-------------------------------
Above Aver. 164 233 26 423
Average 293 473 117 883
Below Aver. 132 383 172 687
------------------------------
Total 589 1089 315 1993
Can summarize by percentages on response
variable (happiness)
Data available at
http://www.stat.ufl.edu/~aa/social/data.html
Example: Survey in Alachua County, Florida,
on predictors of mental health
(data for n = 40 on p. 327 of text and at
www.stat.ufl.edu/~aa/social/data.html)
% income
spent on
lottery
e.g., at x = 0, predicted y =
at x = 100, predicted y =
Regression analysis gives line
predicting y using x
Example:
y = mental impairment, x = life events
– Remains skeptical
• Relies on sound clues (good statistics), and
information from the crime scene (experiment), not
the “fad” of the day.
What is a statistician?
The Honest Attorney
– Worst case:
• Ignore disconfirming data or make up the data.
What is a statistician?
A Good Storyteller
• A Good Storyteller:
– In order for the findings to be published, they
must be put together in a clear, coherent
manner that relates:
• What happened?
• What was found?
• Why it is important?
• What does it mean for the future?
All statistics are not alike
Conservative vs. Liberal statisticians
• Conservative
• Use the tried and true methods
• Prefer conventional rules & common practices
– Advantages:
• More accepted by peers and journal editors
• Guard against chance influencing the findings
– Disadvantages:
• New statistical methods are avoided
All statistics are not alike
Conservative vs. Liberal statisticians
• Liberal
• More likely to use new statistical methods
• Willing to question convention
– Advantages
• May be more likely to discover previously
undetected changes/causes/relationships
– Disadvantages
• More difficulty in having findings accepted by
publishers and peers
All statistics are not alike
Types of statistics
• Descriptive:
– Describing the information (parameters)
• How many (frequency)
• What does it look like (graphing)
• What types (tables)
All statistics are not alike
Types of statistics
• Inferential:
– Making educated guesses (inferences) about
a large group (population) based on what we
know about a smaller group (sample).
On the science of science
• The role of science
• Theories
– What are they?
• Hypotheses:
– Usually generated by a theory.
• Research:
– Provides the investigator with an opportunity
to examine an area of interest and/or
manipulate circumstances to observe the
outcome.
– Test a theory/hypotheses.
On the science of science
The scientific method: Observations
• Observations:
– The results of an experiment.
– Observations can:
• Support or detract from a theory
• Suggest revision of a theory
• Generate a new theory
Why do we need it?
• Statistics help us to:
– Understand what was observed.
– Communicate what was found.
– Make an argument.
– Answer a question.
– Be better consumers of information.
Why do we need it?
Better consumers of information
Variables
Quantitative Qualitative
Discrete Non-
Numeric
Continuous numeric
Explanation of Terms
– Continuous variables
• What is measured varies along a line scale and
can have small or large units of measure
assume values that can take on all values
between any two given values;
Length
– Temperature
– Age
– Distance
– Time
Levels of Measurement
• Measurement scales
– Nominal scales
• Separated into different categories
• All categories are equal
– Cats, dogs, rats
– NOT: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
• There is no magnitude within a category
– One dog is not more dog than another.
Learning a new language
Measurement scales: Nominal
• No intermittent categories
– No dog/cat or cat/fish categories
– Ordinal scales
• What is measured is placed in groups by a ranking
– 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Learning a new language
Measurement scales: Ordinal
Time
– Interval scales
• Someone or thing is measured on a scale in which
interpretations can be made by knowing the
resulting measure.
• The difference between units of measure is
consistent.
– Height
– Speed
Length
Learning a new language
Measurement scales
– Ratio scale
• Just like an interval scale, and there is a definable
and reasonable zero point.
– Time, weight, length
• Seldom -20used-10
in social0 sciences
+10 +20
• All ratio scales are also interval scales, but not all
interval scales are ratio scales
Getting our toes wet
• Rounding numbers
– Less than 5, go down
– Greater than 5, go up
• Useful symbols
• Σ (sigma): used to indicate that the group
of numbers will be added together
x is 3, 78, 32, 15
Σx = 3 + 78 + 32 + 15
Σx = 128
Getting our toes wet
Σ (sigma)
• Let’s try it
x = 7, 33, 10, 19
Σx =
x
x
N
Getting our toes wet
(‘x’ bar)
60
x
8
x 7.5
Getting our toes wet
(‘x’ bar)
• Let’s try it
x = 3, 7, 1, 4, 4, 2
x
x = 28, 36, 22, 40, 34, 29
x
Getting our toes wet
Σx2 (Sigma x squared)
x = 2, 4, 6, 8
Σx2 = (2)2 + (4)2 + (6)2 + (8)2
Σx2 = 4 + 16 + 36 + 64
Σx2 = 120
Getting our toes wet
Σx2 (Sigma x squared)
• Let’s try it
x = 1, 3, 5, 7
Σx2 =
x = 4, 3, 9, 1
Σx2 =
Getting our toes wet
(Σx)2 (The square of Sigma x)
• Let’s try it
x = 7, 7, 3, 2, 5
(Σx)2 =
x = 3, 8, 1, 2
(Σx)2 =
Getting our toes wet
Σx2 versus (Σx)2