Lecture 7

Defining Econometrics, Economic Models, and Econometric Models

Introduction to Econometrics
BSc Eco 2023, Spring 2025
Instructor: Sunaina Dhingra
Email-id: sunaina@jgu.edu.in
Lecture Date: 24th February
 Revision of
Estimation and Interpretation of OLS
Estimators
The Simple Regression Model
• Definition of the simple regression model
• “Explains variable y in terms of variable x”

3
The Simple Regression Model
• Interpretation of the simple linear regression model
• Explains how y varies with changes in x

• The simple linear regression model is rarely applicable in practice

but its discussion is useful for pedagogical reasons.

4
The Simple Regression Model
• Example: Soybean yield and fertilizer

• Example: A simple wage equation

5
The Simple Regression Model
• When is there a causal interpretation?
• Conditional mean independence assumption

• Example: wage equation

6
The Simple Regression Model
• Population regression function (PRF)
• The conditional mean independence assumption implies that

• This means that the average value of the dependent variable

can be expressed as a linear function of the explanatory variable.

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The Simple Regression Model

8
The Simple Regression Model
• Deriving the ordinary least squares estimates
• In order to estimate the regression model one needs data
• A random sample of n observations

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The Simple Regression Model
• Deriving the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators
• Defining regression residuals

• Minimize the sum of the squared regression residuals

• OLS estimators

10
The Simple Regression Model
• OLS fits as good as possible a regression line through the data points

11
 Estimation of OLS parameters
• The Wage1 dataset is used to estimate wage

PRF: 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 + μ𝑖 −−−−−−−(1)

• The model is estimated using a sample from the population

෢0 + 𝛽
SRF: 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 = 𝛽 ෢1 𝑒𝑑𝑢cation𝑖 + μෝ𝑖 -------(2)

𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 = 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒
ෟ𝑖+ෞ μ𝑖

• 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒
ෟ 𝑖 is the estimated conditional mean value of 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖

• The parameters of this regression model are estimated using Ordinary Least
Squares (OLS) method
 Estimation of OLS parameters(contd.)
෢0 + 𝛽
𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 = 𝛽 ෢1 𝑒𝑑𝑢cation𝑖 + μෝ𝑖 -------(2)

෢0 − 𝛽
μෝ𝑖 = 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 − 𝛽 ෢1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 −−−−−−−(3)

• As the sum of disturbances equals zero, the mean also equals zero
E μ = μത = 0−−−−−−−(4)

• As the average value of residual equals zero , we square the residuals, sum them and
then try to minimize that sum
n n
2 2
෢0 − β
min ෍ μෝi = min ෍ wagei − β ෢1 educationi −−−−−−−(5)
i=1 i=1

෢0 and 𝛽
• The estimators 𝛽 ෢1 are obtained by minimizing the sum of squared residuals.
Estimation of OLS parameters(contd.)
2
𝑚𝑖𝑛 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝜇ෝ𝑖 2 = 𝑚𝑖𝑛 σ𝑛𝑖=1 ෢0 − 𝛽
𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 − 𝛽 ෢1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 −−−−−−−(5)

෢0 , and equate them to 0

• Take the FOC of equation 5 with respect to 𝛽

෢0 − 𝛽
−2 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 − 𝛽 ෢1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 = 0 −−−−−−−(6)

෢1 , and equate them to 0

• Take the FOC of equation 5 with respect to 𝛽

෢0 − 𝛽
−2 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 − 𝛽 ෢1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 = 0 −−−−−−−(7)
Estimation of OLS parameters(contd)
෢0 & β
• Solving 6 and 7 simultaneously, we get the OLS estimators β ෢1

෢0 − 𝛽
−2 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 − 𝛽 ෢1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 = 0 −−−−−−−(6)

෢0 − 𝛽
−2 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 − 𝛽 ෢1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 = 0 −−−−−−−(7)

෢0 = 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒 − 𝛽
𝛽 ෢1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛------(8)

σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 − 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 − 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒)

෢1 =
𝛽 −−−−−−(9)
2
σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 − 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

• These estimators are also referred to as least-squares estimators

 Fitted Values and Residuals
• Thus, we can write the OLS estimator for any y and x as

෢0 = 𝑦ത − 𝛽
𝛽 ෢1 𝑥ҧ −−−− − 10

σ𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 −𝑥ҧ (𝑦𝑖 −𝑦)
ത
෢1 =
𝛽 2 −−−− − 11
σ𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑥−𝑥ҧ
• Equation 11 can be re written as

෢1 = 𝐶𝑜𝑣(𝑥𝑦)
𝛽 −−−− − 12
𝜎𝑥2

• Covariance and slope have the same sign . Thus, the sign of covariance determines
the expected direction in which x affects y
 Fitted Values and Residuals(contd.)
෢0 and 𝛽
• Predicted y: For any given value of 𝑥𝑖 , using the estimated 𝛽 ෢1 values we
get
𝑦ෝ𝑖 = ෢
𝛽0 +𝛽 ෢1 𝑥𝑖 -----(13)

𝑦𝑖 = 𝑦ෝ𝑖 + 𝑢ෝ𝑖 −−−−−(14)

• The fitted regression line is called the line of best fit

• The OLS residual associated with each observation i , 𝑢ෝ𝑖 is

𝑢ෝ𝑖 = 𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦ෝ𝑖 −−−−−(15)

• If 𝑢ෝ𝑖 is positive, the line under predicts 𝑦𝑖 and if 𝑢ෝ𝑖 is negative, the line over
predicts 𝑦𝑖
The Simple Regression Model
• Example of a simple regression
• CEO salary and return on equity

• Fitted regression

• Causal interpretation?

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The Simple Regression Model

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The Simple Regression Model
• Example of a simple regression
• Wage and education

• Fitted regression

• Causal interpretation?

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The Simple Regression Model
• Example of a simple regression
• Voting outcomes and campaign expenditures (two parties)

• Fitted regression

• Causal interpretation?

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 STATA Results
• The Wage1 dataset is used to estimate wage- education model

𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒
ෟ 𝑖 = −0.91 + 0.54 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖
STATA Result 1: Estimation of OLS Regression Line Figure 1: Line of best fit
. reg wage education

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 526

F(1, 524) = 103.36
Model 1179.73204 1 1179.73204 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual 5980.68225 524 11.4135158 R-squared = 0.1648
Adj R-squared = 0.1632
Total 7160.41429 525 13.6388844 Root MSE = 3.3784

wage Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval]

education .5413593 .053248 10.17 0.000 .4367534 .6459651

_cons -.9048516 .6849678 -1.32 0.187 -2.250472 .4407687

Source: Author’s estimation using Wage1 dataset in STATA, refer Do file for command
Algebraic Properties: Numerical & Statistical
• Algebraic properties are classified into numerical properties and statistical properties

• Numerical Propoerties:
• Numerical properties always hold as they were calculated using the Ordinary
Least Squares principles which uses differential calculus

• If the technique is used correctly, the β0 and β1 estimates will satisfy the
numerical properties regardless of how the data were generated

• These properties are true for any sample of data.

 Numerical Property:1
• Numerical Property 1: The sum and sample average of OLS residuals is zero

• The equation below follows the first order condition with respect to 𝛽0
𝑛

෍ 𝑢ෝ𝑖 = 0 −−−−−−−(1)
𝑖=1

• The equation below follows the first order condition with respect to 𝛽1

෢0 − 𝛽
−2 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 − 𝛽 ෢1 𝑥𝑖 = 0 -------(2)

σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑢ෝ𝑖
𝜇Ƹ ҧ = = 0 if equation 1 holds true
𝑛
 Numerical Property:2
• Numerical Property 2: The sample covariance between regressors and OLS residuals
is zero
Cov (ොμ,x) = E[(ොμ -E(ොμ)) (x-E(x))]-------(3)

= E[(ොμ) (x-E(x))] as E(ොμ)=0

Cov (ොμ,x)= E[ොμ x] -----(4)

• If Covariance is zero, then
𝑛

෍ μෝ𝑖 . 𝑥𝑖 = 0 −−−−−(5)
𝑖=1
෢1 for any x
• The First order condition with respect to 𝛽

෢0 − 𝛽
−2 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑦𝑖 − 𝛽 ෢1 𝑥𝑖 = 0 -------(6)
 Numerical Property 2: Example
• The Wage1 dataset is used to estimate the wage

Source: Author’s estimation using Wage1 dataset in STATA, refer Do file for command

• Cov(ොμ, education) = 0
 Numerical Property: 3
• The point (𝑥,ҧ 𝑦)
ത is always on the OLS regression line

𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒
ෟ =𝛽 ෢0 + 𝛽
෢1 𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 ------(7)

• In the equation above if we plug in the mean of education, 𝑒𝑑𝑢cation on for

education, then the predicted value of wage will be its mean i.e., 𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒

• These properties can be used to write each 𝑦𝑖 as its fitted value, plus its residuals as
given below
𝑦𝑖 = 𝑦ෝ𝑖 + 𝑢ෝ𝑖 ------(8)
 The Simple Regression Model
obsno roe salary salaryhat uhat
1 14.1 1095 1224.058 -129.058
• This table presents fitted
2 10.9 1001 1164.854 -163.854
values and residuals for 15
3 23.5 1122 1397.960 -275.969
CEOs.
4 5.9 578 1072.348 -494.348
5 13.8 1368 1218.508 149.493
• For example, the 12th
6 20.0 1145 1333.215 -188.215 CEO’s predicted salary is
7 16.4 1078 1266.611 188.611 $526,023 higher than their
8 16.3 1094 1264.761 -170.761 actual salary.
9 10.5 1237 1157.454 79.546
10 26.3 833 1449.773 -616.773
11 25.9 567 1442.372 -875.372 • By contrast the 5th CEO’s
12 26.8 933 1459.023 -526.023 predicted salary is
13 14.8 1339 1237.009 101.991 $149,493 lower than their
14 22.3 937 1375.768 -438.768 actual salary.
15 56.3 2011 2004.808 6.192

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Measure of Goodness of Fit (R )
2
 Introduction
• Goodness of fit measures how well the independent variables explain the dependent
variable y

• From numerical property1: The average of residuals is zero as the sum of residuals is
𝑛
zero ҧ ෞ𝑖
෌𝑖=1 μ
𝜇Ƹ = = 0 𝑖𝑓 σ𝑛𝑖=1 μෝ𝑖 = 0 −−−−−− − 1
𝑛

• Actual yi consists of a fitted value and a residual

𝑦𝑖 = 𝑦ෝ𝑖 + μෝ𝑖 −−−−−− − 2

• From eq2, the sample average of the fitted values can be written as

𝑦തො = 𝑦--------(3)
ത Summing eq2, diving by n and plugging in eq 1.
 Introduction(contd.)

• The covariance between residuals μෝ𝑖 , and x is 0

C𝑜𝑣 μෝ𝑖 , 𝑥𝑖 = E[μෝ𝑖 , 𝑥𝑖 ] =0 as σni=1 μෝi . xi = 0-----(4)

• The covariance between the fitted value and residuals is 0

෢0 − 𝛽
C𝑜𝑣 𝑦ෝ𝑖 , μෝ𝑖 = E 𝑢ෝ𝑖 . 𝑦ෝ𝑖 = E μෝ𝑖 . 𝑦𝑖 − 𝛽 ෢1 𝑥𝑖 = 0 -------(5)
𝑛
෢0 − 𝛽
𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 ෍ μෝ𝑖 . 𝑦𝑖 − 𝛽 ෢1 𝑥𝑖 =0
𝑖=1
 Variation in a regression model

• Total sum of squares (SST): Measure of total sample variation in 𝑦𝑖

𝑛
Total variation: SST = ෌𝑖=1(𝑦𝑖 ത 2 = 0 −−−−−−−(6)
− 𝑦)

• Explained Sum of Squares (SSE): Measures sample variation in 𝑦ෝ𝑖

𝑛
Explained variation: SSE=෌𝑖=1(𝑦ෝ𝑖 ത 2 = 0-------(7)
− 𝑦)

• Residual Sum of Squares (SSR): Measures sample variation in μෝ𝑖

𝑛
Unexplained variation: SSR=෌𝑖=1(𝑢ෝ𝑖 )2 = 0 -------(8)
 Variation in a regression model(contd)

• The total variation in y can be written as the sum of explained and unexplained variation
SST = SSE + SSR---------(9)

• Dividing the equation above throughout by SST

1= SSE/SST + SSR/SST --------(10)

 Coefficient of determination (R2)
• It is the ratio of the explained variation(SSE) compared to the total variation (SST)

• Fraction of the sample variation in y that is explained by x

𝑆𝑆𝐸
R2 = −−− −(11)
𝑆𝑆𝑇
• The value of R2 is always between zero and one, because SSE can be no greater than SST
2 𝑆𝑆𝑅
R =1- −−− −(12)
𝑆𝑆𝑇

𝑆𝑆𝑅
• If the regression model fits well, then is nearly zero and so R2 is one
𝑆𝑆𝑇

𝑆𝑆𝑅
• If the regression model fits badly, then is nearly one and so R2 is zero
𝑆𝑆𝑇
 STATA Results
• The Wage1 dataset is used to estimate wage
STATA Result 1: Regression Result

. reg wage education

Source SS df MS Number of obs = 526 R2= 100* 0.1632

F(1, 524) = 103.36 =16.32% : Explained
Model 1179.73204 1 1179.73204 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual 5980.68225 524 11.4135158 R-squared = 0.1648
Adj R-squared = 0.1632 Unexplained: 83.6%
Total 7160.41429 525 13.6388844 Root MSE = 3.3784

wage Coefficient Std. err. t P>|t| [95% conf. interval]

education .5413593 .053248 10.17 0.000 .4367534 .6459651

_cons -.9048516 .6849678 -1.32 0.187 -2.250472 .4407687
Source: Author’s estimation using Wage1 dataset in STATA, refer Do file for command

• Low R2 value does not mean OLS regression equation is useless

• Using R-squared as the main gauge of success for an econometric analysis can lead to
trouble
The Simple Regression Model
• Goodness of fit
• How well does an explanatory variable explain the dependent variable?

• Measures of variation:

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The Simple Regression Model
• Decomposition of total variation

• Goodness-of-fit measure (R-squared)

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The Simple Regression Model
• CEO Salary and return on equity

• Voting outcomes and campaign expenditures

• Caution: A high R-squared does not necessarily mean that the

regression has a causal interpretation!

38
The Simple Regression Model
• Expected values and variances of the OLS estimators
• The estimated regression coefficients are random variables
because they are calculated from a random sample

• The question is what the estimators will estimate on average and

how large will their variability be in repeated samples

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Assumptions and Unbiasedness
Property of OLS Estimators
 SLR.1: Linear in parameters

Source: Wooldridge, Chapter 2

• We need linearity in parameters, i.e., the β’s should have power 1 but our equation
may not be linear in variables y and x
 SLR.2: Random Sampling

Source: Wooldridge, Chapter 2

• As the primary goal is to draw conclusions about the population, the sample that
we used must be drawn at random from the population

• If the sample is not drawn at random, it may not be representative of the

population and the conclusions that we draw from it may be biased
The Simple Regression Model
• Discussion of random sampling: Wage and education
• The population consists, for example, of all workers of country A
• In the population, there is a linear relationship between wages and years
of education.
• Draw completely randomly a worker from the population
• The wage and the years of education of the worker drawn are random
because one does not know beforehand which worker is drawn.
• Throw that worker back into the population and repeat the random draw n
times.
• The wages and years of education of the sampled workers are used to
estimate the linear relationship between wages and education.

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The Simple Regression Model

44
 SLR.3: Sample Variation in the explanatory variable
Source: Wooldridge, Chapter 2

• This assumption requires that our x

needs to vary in some way

• Assumption SLR.3 fails if the sample

standard deviation of xi is zero;
otherwise, it holds.
• If this is zero, we cannot find beta1hat,
or beta0hat
Source: Author’s estimation using Wage1 dataset in STATA, refer Do file for command
 SLR.4: Zero Conditional Mean

Source: Wooldridge, Chapter 2

• It states that the average value of the disturbance, conditional on x, equals zero for all
possible values of the explanatory variable.

• It also implies the cloud of data centers on a straight line at every possible value of x
 Statistical Property 1: Unbiasedness
• Bias means our estimator’s expected value does not equal the true value in the population

• In some ways, biased estimators aren't even "correct on average.“

• The estimators are unbiased if

መ = 𝛽-------(1)
E(𝛽)

• Unbiasedness does not imply that the 𝛽መ for every possible sample is equal to its
population value

• It only means that on an average 𝛽መ are not too large or small in comparison to the
population value
 Theorem1: Unbiasedness of OLS Estimates
Source: Wooldridge, Chapter 2

• If assumptions hold, we have a very important theorem that states that under assumptions SLR.1
through SLR.4, OLS estimates of 𝛽 ෢0 and 𝛽෢1 are unbiased, i.,e they are equal to the population 𝛽
෢0 and 𝛽
෢1
, on average.
• In real world, simple linear regression estimators will most commonly be biased
• Unbiased SLR parameters (Theorem 1) only works if E(u|x)=0 i.e. SLR.4 is true

Interpretation of unbiasedness
• The estimated coefficients may be smaller or larger, depending on the sample that is the result of a random draw.
• However, on average, they will be equal to the values that characterize the true relationship between y and x in the
population.
• “On average” means if sampling was repeated, i.e. if drawing the random sample and doing the estimation was
repeated many times.
• In a given sample, estimates may differ considerably from true values.
 Failure of SLR.4 may lead to biased Estimates

• Usually SL.4 fails to be true due to:

❑ Reverse causality

❑ Wrong functional form

❑ Expected values of y conditional on x do not really fall on a straight line

❑ Error in measurement of x variable

❑ Omitted variables