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    Economic Worksheet of Pakistan

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    asmaahmed
    The document provides an economic worksheet for Pakistan with data from FY06 to the present (FY12) on key economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, fiscal deficit, exports/imports, foreign reserves, debt levels, and interest rates. GDP growth has averaged around 4% annually while inflation peaked at over 20% in FY09 but has since declined. Foreign reserves have risen steadily and stood at over $18 billion in early 2012. Fiscal deficits have exceeded 6% of GDP in recent years.

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    Economic Worksheet of Pakistan

    Uploaded by

    asmaahmed
    55 views6 pages
    The document provides an economic worksheet for Pakistan with data from FY06 to the present (FY12) on key economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, fiscal deficit, exports/imports, foreign reserves, debt levels, and interest rates. GDP growth has averaged around 4% annually while inflation peaked at over 20% in FY09 but has since declined. Foreign reserves have risen steadily and stood at over $18 billion in early 2012. Fiscal deficits have exceeded 6% of GDP in recent years.

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    The document provides an economic worksheet for Pakistan with data from FY06 to the present (FY12) on key economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, fiscal deficit, exports/imports, foreign reserves, debt levels, and interest rates. GDP growth has averaged around 4% annually while inflation peaked at over 20% in FY09 but has since declined. Foreign reserves have risen steadily and stood at over $18 billion in early 2012. Fiscal deficits have exceeded 6% of GDP in recent years.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    55 views6 pages

    Economic Worksheet of Pakistan

    Uploaded by

    asmaahmed
    The document provides an economic worksheet for Pakistan with data from FY06 to the present (FY12) on key economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, fiscal deficit, exports/imports, foreign reserves, debt levels, and interest rates. GDP growth has averaged around 4% annually while inflation peaked at over 20% in FY09 but has since declined. Foreign reserves have risen steadily and stood at over $18 billion in early 2012. Fiscal deficits have exceeded 6% of GDP in recent years.

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    You are on page 1of 6

    March 8, 2012

    Research Department
    research@scstrade.com

    Economic Worksheet
    of
    Pakistan

    Economic Indicators
    FY06

    FY07

    FY08

    FY09

    FY10

    FY11

    FY12 (to date)

    Growth in M2
    25.0%

    Forex Reserves ($bn)

    13.12

    15.65

    11.40

    12.43

    16.75

    18.24

    20.0%

    16.42
    %

    15.0%
    10.0%

    M2 (PKRmn)

    3,406,905 4,065,155 4,689,143 5,137,205 5,777,234 6,555,481

    5.0%

    6,847,063

    0.0%
    FY06

    GDP (PKRbn)
    Commodity Producing Sector
    Agriculture
    Industry

    FY08

    FY09

    growth in M2 15.1% 19.3% 15.3%

    9.6%

    1,137.037
    1,367.532
    2,504.569
    2,687.140
    5,191.709

    1,148.851
    1,387.117
    2,535.968
    2,847.044
    5,383.012

    1,195.002
    1,385.669
    2,580.671
    2,895.045
    5,475.716

    1,201.945
    1,500.345
    2,702.290
    2,979.241
    5,681.531

    1,216.523
    1,499.360
    2,715.883
    3,101.523
    5,817.406

    GDP Growth (constant prices)

    5.8%

    6.8%

    3.7%

    1.7%

    3.8%

    2.4%

    3.8-4.0%*

    Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)

    4.3%

    4.3%

    7.6%

    5.2%

    6.3%

    6.0%

    5-5.5%*

    FY11

    12.5% 13.5%

    FY12
    (to
    date)
    4.4%

    Fiscal Deficit relationship with GDP


    8.0%
    7.0%
    6.0%
    5.0%
    4.0%
    3.0%
    2.0%
    1.0%
    0.0%
    FY06

    FY07

    FY08

    GDP Growth

    * = Projections

    FY10

    Standard Capital Research

    1,092.098
    1,256.827
    2,348.925
    2,511.551
    4,860.476

    Service Sector
    Real GDP at constant prices

    FY07

    Source: www.sbp.org.pk

    www.finance.gov.pk (economic survey)

    Standard Capital Research

    FY09

    FY10

    FY11

    Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)

    FY12E

    FY06

    FY07

    FY08

    FY09

    FY10

    FY11

    FY12 to date

    CPI Period Averages

    Inflation CPI %
    General
    Food
    Non Food

    7.9
    6.9
    8.6

    7.8
    10.3
    6.0

    12.0
    17.6
    7.9

    20.8
    23.7
    18.4

    11.7
    12.5
    11.1

    13.9
    18.0
    10.5

    10.8
    11.3
    10.4

    FY11

    FY12

    15.0%
    14.0%
    13.0%
    12.0%

    Balance of Payments (US $mn)


    Exports
    Imports
    Trade Balance

    16,553
    (24,994)
    (8,441)

    17,278
    (26,989)
    (9,711)

    20,427
    (35,397)
    (14,970)

    19,121
    (31,747)
    (12,626)

    19,673
    (31,209)
    (11,536)

    25,461
    (35,637)
    (10,176)

    14,100
    (23,157)
    (9,057)

    11.0%
    10.0%
    Jul

    Aug

    Sep

    Oct

    Nov

    Dec

    Jan

    Feb

    Mar

    Apr

    May

    Jun

    Standard Capital Research

    Current A/c ($ mn)

    (4,991)

    (6,878)

    (13,874)

    (9,251)

    (3,946)

    542

    CPI

    (2,633)
    General

    Home Remittances ($ mn)

    4,600

    5,494

    6,451

    7,811

    8,837

    11,201

    7,436

    Food

    Non Food

    25%

    20%
    15%

    Total Domestic Debt (PKRbn)


    Total External Debt (US $bn)

    2,336.8
    35.9

    2,610.3
    39.0

    3,274.6
    44.5

    3,860.7
    50.7

    4,654.0
    57.4

    6,017.0
    61.8

    6,970.0
    61.1

    10%
    5%
    FY06

    Net Foreign Investment (US $bn)

    8.43

    5.48

    2.67

    2.09

    1.92

    FY07

    FY08

    0.45
    Standard Capital Research

    Source: www.sbp.org.pk

    www.finance.gov.pk (economic survey)

    www.statpak.gov.pk/

    FY09

    FY10

    FY11

    FY12 to
    date

    FY06

    FY07

    FY08

    FY09

    FY10

    FY11

    Commodity Producing Sector


    Agriculture
    Manufacturing

    5.1
    6.3
    8.7

    6.6
    4.1
    8.3

    1.3
    1
    4.8

    0.8
    4
    -3.7

    3.6
    2
    5.2

    0.5%
    1.2%
    -0.1%

    Services Sector

    6.5

    1.6

    4.6

    4.1%

    FY12 to date

    Industry Growth %

    Imports and Exports

    Forex Reserves (weekly trend)

    40,000

    Total Liquid Forex Reserves $ bn

    US $mn

    30,000

    18.35

    20,000

    10,000

    b
    i
    l
    l
    i
    o
    n

    0
    (10,000)

    (20,000)

    FY06

    FY07

    FY08

    FY09

    FY10

    FY11

    Exports (US $mn)

    16,553

    17,278

    20,427

    19,121

    19,673

    25,461

    Imports (US $mn)

    24,994

    26,989

    35,397

    31,747

    31,209

    35,637

    Trade Balance (US $mn) (8,441)

    (9,711)

    (14,970) (12,626) (11,536) (10,176)

    Standard Capital Research

    17.85
    17.35
    16.85
    16.35
    5-Feb-11

    5-Apr-11

    Standard Capital Research

    5-Jun-11

    5-Aug-11

    5-Oct-11

    5-Dec-11

    5-Feb-12

    Kibor (6m)

    Discount rate

    CPI (YoY)

    16.0%
    15.0%
    14.0%
    13.0%
    12.0%
    11.0%
    10.0%

    9.0%
    Feb-11

    FY11

    Yield Curve

    Standard Capital Research

    13.40

    12.90

    12.40
    2-Feb-12
    11.90

    9-Feb-12
    20-Feb-12
    29-Feb-12

    11.40

    Standard Capital Research

    Apr-11

    Jun-11

    Aug-11

    Oct-11

    Dec-11

    FY12

    Feb-12

    Research Team:
    Head of Research: Syed Faisal Shaji
    Database:
    M. Naseem Alam

    Address:
    Standard Capital Securities (Pvt.) Ltd.
    Room No. 78 & 79 Karachi Stock Exchange Building,
    I.I Chundrigar Road, Karachi - Pakistan.

    Call us @

    111 111 721 | Ext. 108

    Telephone No # 009221 32410942


    or email your query at info@scstrade.com or research@scstrade.com

    Disclaimer:
    This report has been prepared by Standard Capital Securities (Pvt) Ltd and is provided for information purposes only. The information and data on which
    this report is based are obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Standard Capital
    Securities (Pvt) Ltd accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
    Investors are advised to take professional advice before making investments and Standard Capital Securities (Pvt) Ltd does not take any responsibility and
    shall not be held liable for undue reliance on this report. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose.

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