Sources of Data

UNIT 3 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

Structure:
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Demographic Transition
3.2.1 First Stage
3.2.2 Second Stage
3.2.3 Third Stage
3.2.4 Fourth Stage
3.2.5 The Last Stage of Demographic Transition
3.3 Demographic Profile of India
3.3.1 Growth Rate of Population in India
3.3.2 Phase of Stagnant Population (1901-1921)
3.3.3 Phase of Steady Growth (1921-51)
3.3.4 Phase of Rapid High Growth (1951-1981)
3.3.5 Phase of High Growth with Definite Signs of Slowing Down (1981-2001)
3.4 Let Us Sum Up
3.5 References and Suggested Readings
3.6 Check your Progress- Possible Answer

3.1 INTRODUCTION
Demographic transition examines long-term trends of declining death rate and birth
rate, resulting in a change in the age distribution of the population. The composition
and age structure of the population is mainly affected by the death and birth rates
and also by other factors such as famine, migration, natural disaster, War, political
and social changes. Demographic transition and population patterns are very much
affected by the level of economic development. Population growth and economic
development are both cause and effect for each other. Change in one factor led to
change in other factor. There has been a debate about population growth and
economic development. Pessimists argued that population growth impedes economic
growth and in turn lowers the per capita income and availability of resources. The
Malthusian view was also pessimistic and argued that food supply could not make
pace with the ever-increasing population and the end result will be misery and death
of the people. In contrast, the optimistic argument emphasised that population growth
accelerates economic growth and development as experienced by many East Asian
countries.
After you have read the unit, you should be able to
1) Explain the concept of demographic transition
2) Elaborate the different phases of demographic transition
3) Describe the effects of transition over time
4) Explain the population growth rate in different periods
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Population Dynamics
3.2 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Demographic transition refers to the population cycle that begins with a decline in
the death rate and ends with a decrease in the birth rate. It analyses variations in
birth and death rates, as well as population growth rates in association with the
process of growth and development. A significant shift in a population’s age distribution
was reported during the demographic transition. Demographic transition is also used
to predict the future population growth of any area. The theory of demographic
transition is based on the actual demographic changes of western countries which
passed from a condition of high fertility and high mortality with the consequent slow
growth of population to conditions of low fertility and low mortality and resulting
in a slow growth of population. The term demographic transition was first coined
by Warren S. Thompson (1929), and later on by Frank W. Notestein (1945)
to describe the transition from a stage of high fertility and mortality to a stage of
low fertility and mortality in today’s industrialised societies, particularly European
societies. So, it is a process of change in fertility and mortality with the progress of
societies. As societies moved from largely rural agrarian and illiterate to highly urban,
industrialised, and modern ones, both fertility and mortality eventually declined. Many
developed countries witnessed the process of demographic transition in the late 18th
century. Socio-economic transformation of societies occurs along with demographic
transformation. This theory states that every country passes through different stages
of population development.
In 1947, C. P. Blackers attempted to identify the following five stages of demographic
transition:

1. The high stationary stage, characterised by high birth rates and high death
rates;
2. The early expanding stage, characterised by falling birth rate but rapidly
declining mortality, and high population growth;
3. The late expanding stage, declining birth rates and low death rates, and
declining rate of population growth;
4. The low stationary stage, low birth and death rates, and slow population
growth;
5. The declining stage, with low mortality, deaths exceeding births.

3.2.1 First Stage

This stage is characterised by a high birth rate and high death rate. In this stage
fertility is over 35 per thousand and the mortality rate is also high being more
than 35 per thousand. The countries that pass through this stage are at a low
level of economic development. People are mostly engaged in agriculture. Their
mode of production is primitive and has a very low level of income. People’s
standard of living is poor; due to a low lack of medical facilities, pandemics,
disease, famine, and hunger, and the death rate is reported exceptionally high.
Due to some socio-economic factors, birth rates are also high. Agriculture is
predominately practiced which is in its infancy stage. Stagnant type of economy,
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no surplus production takes place, only a subsistence type of living. This stage is Demographic Transition

characterised by low population densities, and low productivity, large size family
are assets, life expectancy is low, masses are illiterate, technological know-how
is low, and urban development is limited. About two hundred years ago, all the
countries of the world were at this stage of demographic transition. The societies
were religiously dominated. At present, Sierra Leone and Somalia may be in this
stage of demographic transition. A high birth rate and high death rate are reported
because humans produce more to compensate for fatalities caused by disease,
pandemics, and erratic food supply that is why the population remained stable
throughout the first stage of the demographic transition. Improvement in medical
facilities has been so fast, almost every country experiences a decline in mortality.
The population pyramid in this stage expands at the bottom meaning many young
people and very few old people.Two hundred years ago all the countries of the
world were at this stage.In the context of a stagnant and subsistence economy
and primitive type of living, the first stage has been called as the preindustrial
and premodern stages.

3.2.2 Second Stage

The second stage of demographic transition is characterised by a high and gradually
declining in fertility and a sharply reduced mortality rate. The fertility and mortality
rate reaches over 30 and 15 per thousand. It results in a high growth rate of the
population. In this expanding stage of demographic transition, mortality declined
sharply because of the improvement in health, sanitation conditions, and assured
supply of food. The birth rate is still high because of socio-economic backwardness
and limited use of contraceptives. At the end of this stage, fertility shows signs of
gradual decline.
A distinction has often been made between the early second stage with high fertility
and declining mortality and the late second stage with slowly declining fertility and
sharply declining mortality. The second stage as a whole characterised by population
expansion, firstly at a gradual increasing rate and afterward at a gradual subsiding
rate. This stage is also regarded a stage of population explosion as the population
increases very sharply due to a widening gap between two vital rates- birth rate
and death rate. The main notable features are a rapidly expanding population pyramid,
a rapidly declining death rate, and remaining below the birth rate. The fertility rate
remains high in the early stage, as the second stage prolongs, fertility shows signs
of decline, the life expectancy starts improving resulting from a declining death rate.
Societies transform from highly rural agrarian to highly industrialised, and urbanised
one. The process of modernisation become prominent. Large families are no longer
considered an asset. Consequently, fertility undergoes a gradual decline leading to
a gradual squeeze of the rate of natural increase at the tail end of the second stage.
At present, most of the developing countries of the world are passing through this
stage of demographic transition where mortality sharply declines because of the
infusion and penetration of modern medical facilities and improved sanitation whereas
fertility still remains high. The countries like Kenya, Indonesia, Yemen, Nepal, Bhutan,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Malaysia, etc. are in the second stage of demographic
transition where fertility rates have started declining but since the decline in mortality
rates has been sharper, so there is a population explosion.
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3.2.3 Third Stage

The third stage of demographic transition is characterised by the overall low population
growth rate due to a declining birth rate and low death rate. As the process of
economic transformation and urbanisation accelerated, people started considering
large families as a liability. The main notable characteristics of this stage are low
birth rate, low death rate, and small family size, low growth of population, high life
expectancy, and stationary population pyramid. Declining in the death rate is associated
with the growth of urban/industrial society and an increase in women’s status as
education and access to birth control increase.
In the third stage women usually tend to pursue higher education and participate in
economic activities which shorten the childbearing years. Many pieces of research
show educated women favour small family norms and having few children. Countries
with a higher standard of education normally have small family sizes. A transition
from the second stage to the third stage vary much depends on the attainment of
women’s education, and increasing access to healthcare facilities related to women’s
reproductive system. The countries passing through the third stage of demographic
transition include India, Jamaica, Botswana, Mexico, South Africa, UAE, Germany,
Turkey, the UK, France, Italy, and Spain, etc. Population growth is stable in these
countries. This stage provides opportunities for the population to create the strong
economic base. Improvements in the standard of living are reported as the income
of the people is increasing in many folds. The level of poverty also comes down.
The food choices of the people get diversified.

3.2.4 Fourth Stage

This stage of demographic transition is characterised by a low birth rate and low
death rate. The population gets stable due to low birth and death rate. The standard
of living rises as a result of fast economic progress. Quality of life becomes a prominent
factor in considering the family size. The population pyramid is shrinking. Population
growth is stable or sluggish. A long life expectancy is reported in countries passing
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through this stage. The birth rate is almost equal to the death rate. The fertility rate Demographic Transition
is at a replacement level of about 2.1 or lower until countries and regions enter to
stage 5 of the demographic transition. The elderly population is increasing as a result
of technological break-through in medical facilities and government old age protection
programmes. This stage provides an ideal situation for economic development. At
present, countries considered in stage four are China, Argentina, Canada, Australia,
Brazil, Singapore, and most of the counties of Europe.

3.2.5 The Last Stage of Demographic Transition

This stage is characterised by an appreciable decline in both the birth and death
rate. In this stage, the population is highly industrialised and urbanised. The technical
know-how is abundant. People deliberately control their family size. The level of
education is very high and the degree of labour specialisation is also very high.
Countries of Anglo-America, west European, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, etc.
are considered to be reached in this stage of demographic transition.
Check your progress 1
Note : (a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
(b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1. Write a short note on Demographic Transition.
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2. Explain the last stage of the theory of Demographic Transition.
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3.3 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF INDIA

Demographic profiles contain information about the population characteristics such
age, sex, residence, population structure and distribution. Population growth is the
determinant of demographic profile.

3.3.1 Growth Rate of Population in India

India is one of the most populous countries of the world. The average growth rate
for the 1991-2001 decade was 2.15 percent per annum. It come down a little bit
and was recorded at 1.64 percent for the 2001-2011 decade. Prosperity in a nation
very much depends on the working population rather than the total population.
Unfortunately, two-thirds of our population consists of non-workers and only one-
third of people are workers. 129
Population Dynamics In terms of population, India is ahead of China. India has got only 2.4 percent of
the total land area in the world but is the home of 16.7 percent of the world’s
population. In terms of geographical area, Russia, China, Canada, Brazil, America,
and Australia are larger than India. Thus India is the seventh largest country in the
world.In 2011 the population of India was 1210 million, making it the largest in
the world (in 2023) Area-wise, India is at the seventh position in the world. There
has always been a positive population growth rate in India since the first census of
India was conducted except in 1921 when the growth rate was negative. Numerous
attempt has been made to estimate the population of India before the first census
in 1872. In 1600, India’s population was just 100 million. It rose to 120 million in
1800, 130 million in 1841, and 255 million in 1871. The growth rate was modest
prior to the twentieth century.
A dynamic relationship between population and economic development in India can
be better understood by the model of demographic transition. The theory of
demographic transition analyses and predicts the changes in the birth and death and
death rates over a long period of time. There are some turning points in the
demographic history of India which are the census years 1921, 1951, and 1981.
The demographic history of India during the 20th century can be divided into four
distinct phases.
1. Phase of Stagnant Population (1901-1921)
2. Phase of Steady Growth (1921-1951)
3. Phase of Rapid High Growth (1951-1981)
4. Phase of High Growth with Definite Signs of Slowing Down (1981-2001)

3.3.2 Phase of Stagnant Population (1901-1921)

India witnessed a sporadic and irregular population growth rate during throughout
the 19th century. Until 1921, population growth was slow and stagnant as compared
to the consequent phases of India’s demographic history. In this period, a high birth
rate was counterbalanced by a high death rate. The progressive growth rate was
only 5.42 percent in 1921 over 1901. A negative growth rate of -0.31 percent
was reported in the census 1921.This negative growth rate was reported once
throughout the demographic history of India. The year 1921 is called the
‘demographic divide’ because of the decrease in the birth rate in place of increasing.
The high mortality was reported during this phase due to epidemics of influenza,
plague, smallpox, cholera and erratic food supply. The reason for the erratic food
supply was frequent droughts in 1911, 1913, 1915, 1918, and 1920. Moreover, a
large number of soldiers lost their lives during the First World War (1914-1918).

3.3.3 Phase of Steady Growth (1921-51)

There was a steady growth of population in between 1921 to 1951. During these
years, the population increased by 2.8 crore in 1931, to 4 crores in 1941, and to
5 crores in 1951. The less decadal growth rate was reported in the 1951 census
by 0.9 percentage points as compared to the previous census 1941. The death
rate declined from 36.3 to 27.4 and the birth rate from 46.4 to 39.9 over the same
period. During this phase of 30 years, an average natural growth rate of 12.2 was
reported. The mortality rate started showing downward trends due to improvements
in health and sanitation conditions after 1921. Improvement in water quality and
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sanitation facilities facilitated in controlling epidemics like cholera, and plague. In Demographic Transition
1951, the crude death rate declined from 47 per thousand in 1921 to 27 per
thousand. While the crude birth rate remained abnormally at high level and decline
from 48 per thousands in 1921 to 40 per thousand in 1951. The decline in mortality
was due to improvements in the distributive system and sanitation. Improved
transportation systems made it possible to transfer food to scarcity-driven areas.
Since the death rate declined considerably, the crude birth rate continued at a high
level, giving steady population growth. In this stage, the growth rate of the population
was mortality-induced growth.

3.3.4 Phase of Rapid High Growth (1951-1981)

In a span of 30 years,India’s Population grew to 683 million in 1981 from 361
million in 1951. During this period, the population of India increased by 322 million
with a compound growth rate of 1.22 percent per annum. With the extension of
medical facilities and technological break-through in it, a sharp decline in mortality
was reported during the third phase of the demographic transition. The death rate
sharply declined to 15 per thousand but the birth rate slightly fell from 40 to 34
per thousand and this led to a population explosion in this period.

3.3.5 Phase of High Growth with Definite Signs of Slowing

Down (1981-2001)
This phase is known by high growth with definite signs of slowing down. In 20
years, the total population of India increased by 34.37 crores. But a decline in average
annual growth rate was reported as 1.93 percent in 2001 as against 2.2 percent in
1981. During this phase, a definite declining trend of population growth is visible.
The total population increased by 34.37 crores over 20 years. But the average
annual growth rate definitely declined to 1.93 percent in 2001 as against the highest
ever growth rate of 2.2 percent in 1981. However, the trend of population explosion
still persists even now.
Check your progress 2
Note : (a) Write your answer in about 50 words.
(b) Check your answer with possible answers given at the end of the unit.
1. Write a short note on the second phase of the demographic history of India.
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2. Why the third stage of rapid high growth of population as known as a stage
‘population explosion’, explain?
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Population Dynamics
3.4 LET US SUM UP
Theory of demographic transition explain the transformation of a society from highly
agrarian to the most industrialised and urban society. Changes in birth and death
rate with the passes of time can better be explained by the theory of demographic
transition. It is the most acceptable theory of population growth. It does not lay
emphasis on food supply like the Malthusian theory, nor does it develop a pessimistic
outlook towards population growth. The theory is helpful in explaining the population
trends over a long period of time. The theory lay emphasis on the stages of population
growth. Every country of the world bound to pass through these stages of population
growth and development with the passes of time. In the first stage, every country
has high birth and death rates which gradually decline in successive stages; at the
end population get stabilise or further decline below the replacement level.

3.5 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READINGS

Bloom, D. E. (2012). Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic
Growth.
Chandrasekhar, C. P., Ghosh, J., & Roy Chowdhury, A. (2006). The Demographic
Dividend and Young India’s Economic Future. Economic and Political Weekly,
5055-5064.
Chesnais, J. C. (1992). The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic
Implications. OUP Catalogue.
Kapila, Uma. (2017). Demography and Development. AcademicFoundation
Publication.
Kirk, D. (1996). Demographic Transition Theory. Population Studies, 50(3), 361-
387.
Mehrotra, S. (2015). Realising the Demographic Dividend: Policies to Achieve
Inclusive Growth in India. Cambridge University Press.
Mitra, S., & Nagarajan, R. (2005). Making Use of the Window of Demographic
Opportunity:an Economic Perspective. Economic and Political Weekly, 5327-
5332.
Jhingan, M.L., Bhatt, B.K., Desai, J.N. (2005). Demography. Virendra Publication
Ltd., New Delhi.
Bhende, A. A., & Kanitkar, T. (2011). Principles of Population Studies. Bombay:
Himalaya Publishing House.

3.6 CHECK YOUR PROGRESS - POSSIBLE

ANSWERS
Check Your Progress 1
Q1. Write a short note on Demographic Transition.
A. Demographic transition refers to the population cycle that begins with a
132 decline in the death rate and ends with a decrease in the birth rate. It
 analyses variations in birth and death rates, as well as population growth Demographic Transition
rates in association with the process of growth and development. A
significant shift in a population’s age distribution was reported during the
demographic transition. Demographic transition is also used to predict the
future population growth of any area.
Q2. Explain the last stage of the theory of Demographic Transition.
A. In the last stage of demographic transition, death rate exceed the birth
rate leading to overall decline in population growth. Birth rate continue
to decline, but it is not possible to lower death rate further in more
advanced countries lead to declining stage of population. A reduction in
fertility is result of delay the age of marriage of both men and women.
People favour small family norms. Advanced countries of the world are
passing through this stage.
Check Your Progress 2
Q1. Write a short note on the second phase of the demographic history of India.
A. The second phase is stage of steady population growth.During these years,
the population increased by 2.8 crore in 1931, to 4 crores in 1941, and
to 5 crores in 1951. The less decadal growth rate was reported in the
1951 census by 0.9 percentage points as compared to the previous census
1941. The death rate declined from 36.3 to 27.4 and the birth rate from
46.4 to 39.9 over the same period.Since the death rate declined
considerably, the crude birth rate continued at a high level, giving steady
population growth. In this stage, the growth rate of the population was
mortality-induced growth.
Q2. Why the third stage of rapid high growth of population as known as a stage
‘population explosion’, explain?
A. The third phase is of rapid high growth of population.With the extension
of medical facilities and technological break-through in it, a sharp decline
in mortality was reported during the third phase of the demographic
transition. In 20 years, the total population of India increased by 34.37
crores. But a decline in average annual growth rate was reported as 1.93
percent in 2001 as against 2.2 percent in 1981.The death rate sharply
declined to 15 per thousand but the birth rate slightly fell from 40 to 34
per thousand and this led to a population explosion in this period.

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