Section C: Challenges for Pakistan

3.1 Indicators of development, population patterns and trends

Population distribution in Pakistan

Population is the number of people living in a specified area
Terms:
> Birth rate: The average number of births per thousand people
>Death rate: The average number of deaths per thousand people
>Rate of natural increase = Birth rate (minus) Death rate
>Overpopulation: When an area’s population is too large to be supported by its available
resources like wealth, food, fresh water and land
>Demographic transitional model
: Graphs suggesting sequence of change in relationships between birth and death rates over a
period of time
>Population structures
: It is the percentage of males and females in different age groups. Depends on the population’s
birth and death rates and life expectancy of a particular area. It is divided into age groups for
both males and females
>Population pyramids
: It is the graphical representation of population structures
Q: Explain the difference between emigration and immigration

Emigration –moving out of an area

Immigration – moving into an area

Life expectancy: The number of years that a person expected to live at birth
Urbanization: The increase in the proportions of a country population that lives in its urban areas.

Internal migration: The movement of people with in the country.

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Rural-Urban migration: The movement of people from the rural areas of a country to its urban
areas.
Why is there a high birth rate?

Lack of awareness about the impact of overpopulation on development and economy of

Pakistan

High illiteracy rate thus people are unaware of family planning methods

Contraceptives are not available in remote areas/ And are expensive

Contraceptives are considered to be unislamic

Large families are considered as a blessing

Desire for more sons

Early marriages which increase the span of productivity

Children are expected to look after their parents at old age

Most of the farmers are subsistence farmers who cannot afford machinery therefore family
labor is preferred
: How has the death rate fallen/rising life expectancy?

More awareness about balanced diet

Use of clean and fresh water

Better sanitation

More personal hygiene

More availability of medical facilities

More medical facilities in remote areas e.g. mobile clinics

Better transport facilities which means that patients can easily be taken to hospitals

Easy availability of life saving medicines

Free medical facilities in government hospitals

Reasons for reduction in birth rate

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More literacy so more awareness about the impact of high population on
development/economy

More young people question traditions

Contraceptives are available in remote areas

Many women getting higher education so prefer to enter careers than early marriages, thus late
marriages reduce the span of productivity

Understand the importance of small families

Improvement in standard of living so people are more concerned of materialistic requirements

than family size

Educated people pay more attention to quality of their children rather than their quantity
Education is expensive
Health facilities are expensive
Impacts of reduction of Birth rate on education and employment

• Education. The reduction in the number of live births for each woman will mean that there
are less children over-all to educate. This will mean that the teacher/student ratio should increase
and education provision should improve.
• • Employment. The reductions in births will decrease the number of young workers in the
2030’s, this means that there will be fewer workers available which may cause worker shortages

Why is there a high illiteracy rate in Pakistan?

·Poverty
·Lack of budget for education
·Shortage of schools in rural areas
·Shortage of trained teachers
·Education is not free in government schools
·Private schools are expensive
·Many people prefer child labor
·People in rural areas sometimes do not send girls to schools due to tradition

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·Landlords do not allow their tenants to get education
Explain why it is vital for Pakistan to improve its education/literacy standard for different
sectors of the economy.
·Illiteracy holds back their development
·Engineering skills are required for mining/manufacturing
·Professional skills are needed in education/health
·Better use of machinery in agriculture if literate
·Farmers will follow the instruction of modern methods of agriculture e.g. HYV seeds, chemical
fertilizers, etc.
·Use of IT
Density of population
Number of people living per unit area.
·Density = (Number of people living) / (Area)
Factors affecting population density
Physical factors

The relatively flat Indus river valley and the Indus delta have fertile soil, available water and
provide flat land for urban developments, therefore have high population densities.
Mountainous areas such as the Himalayan foothills have steep slopes and thin, infertile soils have
low population densities.
More temperate and monsoon areas climatic areas, such as the Indus
Valley, which has relatively few extremes of weather and climate, have a higher population
density than areas more extreme variations. Areas which are very arid, such as the Thar Desert
(83 people per km2) or have low temperatures such as Gilgit–Baltistan tend to have sparse
population densities.
• Areas with natural resources such as coal or minerals, such as Duki in Balochistan, have higher
local population density than surrounding low population density areas (19 people km2).
Areas with well-developed farming or other intensive primary industries are often densely
populated. In Pakistan the fertile alluvial soils and availability of water the Indus valley encourage
intensive agriculture resulting a high population density (approximately 500 people per square
kilometre or above). Areas which are difficult to develop for agriculture such as Balochistan,
which has thin infertile soils and little surface drainage, the population density is very low, ranging
from 0 to approximately 50 per square kilometre.
Human factors
Urbanisation and employment are important factors. Over 36% of

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Pakistan's population live in urban areas. Rural to urban migration and natural increase result in
a high population density in urban areas. For example Karachi has a population density of 24'000
people per square kilometre.
Areas with a well-developed transport infrastructure increasing accessibility are more densely
populated than areas which have a poorly developed transport infrastructure. In Pakistan, most
of the transport networks are concentrated in the densely populated Indus Valley and coastal
regions while sparsely populated areas such as Balochistan have a very limited network.
Political decisions and government policies can affect population densities.
In Pakistan the decision to make Islamabad the capital city has greatly increased the population
density of the area north-east of Rawalpindi, which is now approximately 2,020/km².

Infant and Maternal Mortality Rates

Infant mortality is the death of an infant before his or her first birthday. The infant mortality rate
is the number of infant deaths for every 1,000 live births. In addition to giving us key information
about maternal and infant health, the infant mortality rate is an important marker of the overall
health of a society.
The infant mortality rate for Pakistan in 2020 is 59.109 deaths per 1000 live births, a 1.84%
decline from 2019. Pakistan’s Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is approximately 299 per 100,000
live births. Both figures have social and financial effects for health provision in Pakistan.

Causes for high infants and mortality rate

Many areas of Pakistan, especially rural areas, lack sufficient nutritious food and access to clean
water is a common problem in the informal settlements around many urban centres, both of
these factors result in higher than average infant mortality rates which help to lower the over-all
life expectancy.

In many areas of Pakistan, especially the tribally controlled areas, children are not vaccinated
against infectious diseases. This increases infant mortality rates. Pakistan is one of the few
countries where measles is still endemic.
This causes implications for health care as health care workers are often regarded with suspicion
and have to gain the trust and agreement of local leaders before a vaccination programme can
take place. This is expensive in terms of time and money.
The COVID crisis has reduced the number of health workers and the health services available to
concentrate on infant and maternal mortality. Schemes such as the Vaccinators on Wheels
(World bank financed) have partly helped, but health services in Pakistan remain over-stretched.

Infant and maternal mortality rates have implications for healthcare provision in Pakistan.

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 The current life for Pakistan expectancy is estimated at
67.33 years (2020), this is a 0.23% increase from 2019.
Consequently, the number of elderly dependent people in
Pakistan is projected to rise after 2025.
Increasing life expectancy will make demands on services in
Pakistan, especially medical and health services. This means that less money is available for
economic and other development.
Pakistan is been attempting to improve health care, for example investing in training
programmes and in public health and running accelerated programmes for training nurses to
meet increasing demands.
However, Pakistan has only approximately 10% of the required number nurses for its
population size, and very few of these are trained in geriatric care.
There are relatively few hospitals in rural areas of Pakistan, and only the large public and private
hospitals the bigger cities, such as Karachi, provide geriatric services. Therefore, service provision
for an older population in Pakistan will have an increasing rural/urban lack of balance.
Expanding any services to meet the demands of an increasing older population will require
considerable investment. Pakistan’s negative balance of payments mean that the government is
unlikely to be able to provide this, as reflected by current expenditure on health care which is
relatively low, approximately
2.4% of GPD.
Families traditionally care for older people, however, falling birth rates and rising life
expectancy rates are increasing the dependency ratios of the elderly. Pakistan may move from
traditional care to greater use of homes for the elderly, putting an increasing strain on service
provision.
An over-all assessment might suggest a negative impact for
Pakistan. However, longer life expectancy will mean that people need to be economically active
for longer which might provide additional government income for service provision.

Demographic data and Trends

Growth rate: 2.10%
Birth rate: 29.birth per 1000
Death rate: 7.5deaths per 1000
Life expectancy: 67.7 years
Total fertility rate: 2.62 children per woman (child bearing years (15-49)
Maternal mortality rate: 18 deaths per 1000

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Infant mortality rate: 50.4 per 1000

Practice Questions
Q State two ways in which birth rate has declined in Pakistan. [2]
Q State two ways in which death rate has declined in Pakistan. [2]
Q State two factors which influences population structure of Pakistan. [2]
Q Explain one physical factor which affects density of population.[3]
Q Explain one Human factor which affects density of population.[3]
Q State two trends in fertility rate of Pakistan.[2]
Q Suggest one reason for high infant mortality rate in Pakistan.[3]
Q explain the factors affecting the distribution and density of population in Pakistan.[6]

3.2 Factors influencing the quality of life

HDI (The Human Development Index)

The Human Development Index is a statistical composite index of life expectancy, education, and per
capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A
country scores a higher HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the GDP
per capita is higher.
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistical tool used to measure a country's overall
achievement in its social and economic dimensions. The social and economic dimensions of a
country are based on the health of people, their level of education attainment and their standard of
living.
Pakistan has gone down one place, from 149 to 150th spot, in the latest human development index
(HDI) ranking issued by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Factors of HDI

 Life expectancy at birth

 Expected years of schooling
 Income measured by Gross National Income
Indicators such as: Average number of people per doctor/percentage dying from specified illness; Life
expectancy; GDP/GNP/GNI/National Income per capita; Literacy/% completing secondary education;
IMR/death rate; Birth Rate; Employment structure/% employed in primary/secondary/tertiary etc. mark

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for identification of indicator with a further mark for explaining how it can be used. E.g. life expectancy
will be higher when a country is at a higher level of development.

Explain how the HDI measures the level of development of a country.

The percentage of working population in each sector) can be compared with other
countries; (The change in percentage of working population in each sector) can be
compared over time; Primary sector is smaller as a country becomes more developed;
Secondary sector grows as country becomes developed; Secondary sector decreases as it
becomes even more developed; Tertiary sector grows as a country becomes more
developed; Quaternary sector grows when countries have very high GNP etc

Quality of life in rural Pakistan: challenges of life in rural communities

Rural population structure is a challenge;

In some rural communities, there is an in-balance of male to females in the economically
productive age group (16 –65) as many of the men migrate to urban areas to work. This means
that rural areas have a reduced work force and agricultural production declines.
There is a higher % of males than females in rural Pakistan (approximately 34% to 32% 2013).
This means that a number of men may not marry and will lack the social status that marriage
provides.

Illiteracy rates: there is a very low literacy rate in many rural communities of Pakistan. The gender
parity index in case of participation in primary education is 0.82%. And it is estimated that 6.7
million children are out of school and majority of them are girls (62%).
Access to education in rural communities is limited which can affect the ability of people to get
skilled jobs. Therefore lack of access to quality education is another challenge facing our rural
regions/ areas. Social constraints and rural traditions mean that there is opposition to education in some
rural areas, especially for girls. This increases gender inequality and means that the development potential
of rural communities is not realised. Therefore, rural communities are less likely to be able to afford
medical and other services.

• There are limited government funds for education, Pakistan spends approximately 2.4% of its
GDP on education (1). However, much of the funding is used for education in urban areas so
there is less money available for rural communities (1) which leads to low levels of literacy and
consequently reduces the economic development of rural communities (1).

Poor health

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Lack of qualified medical professionals and facilities in rural areas such as balochistan and FATA.
This resulted in more health issues such as high infant and maternal mortality rates.
Rural based craft industries: These industries are important source of income for household with
many members of the family being involved particularly for women and children cannot get
educated.

Subsistence farming: Many of the farms are very small only 1-3 hectares so the farmer only
produces enough for a family and there is not enough circular to sell. Thus rural community does
not have income to help with development projects. Subsistence in rural communities leads to
less food supply.

:
Incentives and strategies to support rural communities
Incentives such as the Khushhal Pakistan Fund (2006) aimed to increase the standard of
life, rural productivity and income. A number of individual programmes have benefitted rural
communities, or will do so in the future. The Pakistan Electric Power Company plans to increase
rural access to electricity. The Wellbeing Green Rural Lighting Programme is an incentive to
provide solar-powered lanterns, resulting in stainable and affordable lighting. However, the
impact is limited a Pakistan does not produce enough electricity, and most of the power
produced is used by urban areas.

Green Revolution) have helped to increase output and incomes of rural

communities who depend on farming.

Plans to improve enrolment in education, especially at primary level, which is

generally lower in rural areas have had variable success. Some of the incentives
such as female education, are opposed in the more rural and less-accessible
villages with traditional values. Enrolment in education remains low in rural areas
overall.

invest in improved seeds, machinery and fertilisers. Most farms in Pakistan are
small scale and lack money for investment.

Access to micro-finance allows families to develop a small business which can allow
them to move away from subsistence farming.

• Introducing financial incentives for health workers to try and increased amount of
health workers in rural areas in order to reduce mortality rates.
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• Investment in education facilities to ensure children have sufficient skills to be
able to get a job and support their families in the future.
The Green Revolution was introduced to Pakistan in the 1960s. The use of specially bred high
yielding wheat varieties and synthetic fertilisers have almost doubled the amount of wheat and
other crops produced. This supports rural communities by improving food security and by
producing a surplus which can be sold.
• Land reforms, such as the first legislation passed by Ayub Khan's government, aimed to
redistribute land in rural Pakistan so that land owners could not own more than 500 acres of
irrigated and 1,000 acres of unirrigated land. It also permitted the re-distribution of land among
tenants. This supported rural communities by allowing the tenants to have sufficient land to
grow crops and use the technology introduced by the Green Revolution. This helped rural
communities to avoid food deficits and raised their standard of living.
• •
• • Government programmes, which aim to raise agricultural production (e.g., the Green
Revolution and the introduction of drought resistant crops) have helped to increase output and
incomes of rural communities who depend on farming. However, such schemes tend to benefit
landlords and larger landowners.
• • There are also non-government schemes designed to help rural communities. The Aga
Khan Rural Support Programme is a private, non-profit company, established to help improve
the quality of life of the villagers of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral. This programme has resulted in
the construction or repair of small infrastructure projects such as bridges, irrigation channels
and hydropower units and tree planting. Although this programme has had notable successes, it
is limited to a relatively small

Explain two strategies used to improve quality of life in rural areas.

• NGOs providing assistance to improve farming methods to increase yields meaning
people can move beyond subsistence farming.
• Increased funding for education facilities in rural areas to ensure skilled workers are created
to support economic growth.
• Improved rural infrastructure to reduce isolation and increase access to services.

3.3 Quality of life in urban Pakistan: challenges of life in urban communities

Urban Issues/Challenges/Problems
As a result of inadequate attention to spatial planning at the national, provincial and local levels,
urbanization phenomena and urban development are not being addressed comprehensively.
With indiscriminate conversion of the rich agricultural land for urban uses, there has been
haphazard growth around big cities and along national highways.
Most of the cities (Karachi, Lahore, and Rawalpindi) in the country are dominated by areas of
poor housing, inadequate infrastructure and social services and poor transport, with a large
proportion of the residents living in Kachi Abadis or informal settlements. In large cities in
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particular, the problem of high land values is one of the biggest constraints on a poor family’s
ability to acquire shelter.

Karachi

Housing
Rapid growth of the city has led to a housing shortage. Most of the rural migrants begin their life
in Karachi in shanty towns called ‘Slum areas'. They are found mainly on the edges of the city, on
poor quality land that is not suitable for urban development. People here are squatters, with no
legal rights to the land they occupy. They live in overcrowded conditions, often in home-made
shelters constructed from scavenged materials like timber, tarpaulins and corrugated iron.
The shanty towns have grown spontaneously with no planning, and so have no proper roads,
pavements or local services like hospitals. The largest shanty towns includes called Khuda ki Basti,
Gadap Town in the south of the city.
• The State Bank of Pakistan estimates that urban housing was approximately 4.4 million units
short of demand in 2015. Pakistan’s five largest cities will account for 78 per cent of the total
housing shortage by 2035. Even when the government provides housing it is often low quality.
Karachi, one of the world’s fastest growing megacities with an estimated 17 million people, has
the second highest amount of substandard housing in South Asia and sixth highest globally

Unemployment –
There are few job opportunities in the Slum areas. Poor transport systems make it hard for
residents in the shanty towns to travel to work. Many citizens of Karachi work in the informal job
sector as street sellers, shoe shiners, etc.
Urban poverty
There is considerable urban poverty, with over 20 per cent of the urban residents classified as
poor. The causes of urban poverty include high cost of land, long journeys to work, exposure to
greater environmental risk, and greater vulnerability to changes in market conditions in urban
areas. Conditions of urban poverty have been worsened by the speed and scale of urbanization
in Karachi, with which the municipal agencies have not been able to keep pace.

Urban Sprawl
Urbanisation has increased the size of Pakistan’s biggest cities so rapidly that the national,
regional and local governments are unable to deliver public services or create productive jobs.
Urban poverty is increasing, with one in eight urban dwellers living below the poverty line. This
is particularly true in Karachi.

Environmental challenges
• Urban sprawl - this is an issue as the city continues to grow rapidly, encroaching on
surrounding rural (countryside) areas.

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 • Pollution - from traffic congestion in the city Centre, and from industrial zones. Litter is
an issue on the beaches.
• Waste disposal - a particular problem in the favelas, where there is no organized sewage
or waste recovery systems.

Opportunities in mega cities

Karachi
Benefits
• Employment. As the financial hub of Pakistan, Karachi provides many job opportunities.
However, this are usually for educated people and most of Karachi’s population are unable to
access these.
• Culture and entertainment. Karachi is known as the ‘City of Lights’ because of its culture and
nightlife. This includes the National Academy of Performing Arts and the National Museum of
Pakistan.
• Historical connections. Karachi contains some important historical sites, for example the
hundred-year-old tombs in the Chowkandi graveyard and a number of buildings from the Raj era.
• Recreation. Karachi has a number of scenic beaches and parks, including the Kirthar National
Park. However, the majority of Karachi’s population live a long way from these facilities and are
unable to afford the cost of travel.
• Education availability. Karachi has a large number of schools and Pakistan’s largest university.
However, the poorer areas have few education establishments, although incentives such as the
Footpath School in Karachi provides a free, basic education.
• Transport. Karachi has severe traffic congestion, however there are plans to reduce this and
provide residents with an effective system with new flyovers and bypasses constructed on the
busiest roads.
Challenges
• Poor infrastructure. Lack of investment in the road network means that these are poorly
maintained and causes traffic congestion and pollution. Roads also flood during the monsoon
period which causes both rod and vehicle damage.
• Approximately 70% of Karachi’s inhabitants have low incomes, and the majority live in relatively
more affordable peripheral areas and are not able to afford or do not have access to culture and
entertainment.
• The poorer areas such as Afghan Basti and Manghopir have few education establishments, so
the children growing up in these areas tend to be illiterate and work in unskilled jobs in the informal
sector as they become older.
• Traffic congestion. Public transport options are limited and inadequate. An urban rail line closed
in 1999, after years of poor station maintenance and service levels left the system under-used.
Karachi’s public buses, although numerous, tend to be poorly maintained and unpredictable. The
lack of public transport has led to the increasing use of private rickshaws and cars, resulting in
traffic congestion, pollution and grid lock.
• Pollution. Karachi is the world’s fourth greatest polluted city as its air quality index has
frequently increased to 11.8 times higher than the WHO annual air quality guideline value.
Local authorities estimate that Karachi produces around 500 million gallons (2202441900
litres) a day of waste water. Around one fifth of water comes from industries, while and the
remainder is domestic or municipal sewerage. This waste water is pumped, untreated,

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 into the sea, killing fish. There are not any landfill sits in Karachi, so rubbish is thrown
directly into drainage ditches and is eventually washed in the sea by monsoon rains.

Lahore
Benefits
• Health care. Lahore has one of the most developed health systems in Pakatan and provides
better levels of health care than most regions of Pakistan
• Education. Lahore provides opportunities for higher education and has a number of universities.
Lahore is known as the educational capital of the country. However, 30% of Lahore’s population
live in poorer areas where health care, education, and basics such as sanitation and electricity,
are extremely limited.
• Transport. Lahore has one of the most efficient public transport systems in Pakistan, however,
low paid and workers in the informal sector are unlikely to live near the main transport networks,
or to be able to afford the fares.
• Employment. There are many opportunities for work in the health, transport and education
sectors. However, much of this work requires skills and a level of education which people living
in the informal housing areas are unlikely to have.
Challenges
• Health care and other services 30% of Lahore’s population live in poorer areas where health
care, education, and basics such as sanitation and electricity, are extremely limited.
• Education. Despite availability of educational facilities, the low paid and workers in the informal
sector are unlikely to live near the main transport networks, or to be able to afford the fares to
reach these facilities. The poorer areas have very limited schools and the illiteracy rates in such
areas is high.
• Pollution. Too many vehicles and road congestion, emissions from industries and waste from
the industries cause severe pollution in Islamabad. Chemical industries do not have
environmental management plans to recycle their waste and hazardous waste is put into open
sites into the land resulting in pollutants contaminating with the soil with toxic waste.

Strategies to resolve urban issues

Bottom-up strategies
are development project that tend to be focused on local communities, and will often include
involvement of local people. • while others suggest focusing on the household level most likely
through bottom-up projects. • Each of the suggestions has the potential to make improvements,
but potentially over different timescales.

Top down strategies

Some views suggest a top-down approach could be preferable in terms of needing large scale
investments, or having an impact at a national scale,

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The local community becomes involved (bottom up strategy) in the official planning process for
housing settlements, for example the Orangi Pilot Project, Karachi, based on the concept that
that community designs, plans and implements on their ideas for urban improvements
. • Improving air quality and reducing pollution in urban areas for example in Lahore, by changing
the method of firing bricks in brick kilns (zigzag technology) which reduces greenhouse gas
emissions.

The Orangi Pilot Project (OPP) has become one of the best known NGO projects in the provision
of sanitation. In the 16 years since its inception, the Project has directly and indirectly assisted
about one million people in Orangi (Karachi) to improved sanitation.
From the beginning, OPP staff have sought to minimise external support in order to assist
households to achieve their objectives for local development. From their first activities, their
work has been extended in two directions.
The Project has started to work with the people of Orangi and the surrounding area in the
provision of a number of additional services including housing, health, credit for entrepreneurs,
education and rural development. More recently, staff have been assisting both government and
non-government agencies to initiate a number of new projects in other cities in Pakistan drawing
on the experience of the Orangi Pilot Project.

Top down strategies

Law and order in Karachi have improved due to ‘Karachi operation’, and is now considered one
of the safer cities in Pakistan This has improved the global image of Karachi and made foreign
investment more likely.
• More than 50 % of the population of major cities live in slums and squatter settlements. To
reduce the severe housing backlog the government has built low-cost housing under a dedicated
Prime Minister’s Programme. In addition, the government has approved a programme of urban
renewal and slum improvements. The Government of Sindh has prepared specific development
plans to reduce problems in Karachi.

• The city government is developing a plan to ban the registration of more diesel buses and to
convert old public transport vehicles with CNG. The 'Green Bus’ and other schemes will help to
reduce the severe air pollution which exists in some parts of Karachi.

Q: Different strategies have been used to deal with the challenges of living in mega cities.
Evaluate the strategies used in one named megacity in Pakistan.[8]
Named megacity
Law and order in Karachi have improved due to ‘Karachi operation’, and is now considered one
of the safer cities in Pakistan This has improved the global image of Karachi and made foreign
investment more likely.
• More than 50 % of the population of major cities live in slums and squatter settlements. To
reduce the severe housing backlog the government has built low-cost housing under a dedicated
Prime Minister’s Programme. In addition, the government has approved a programme of urban

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renewal and slum improvements. The Government of Sindh has prepared specific development
plans to reduce problems in Karachi.
• The city government is developing a plan to ban the registration of more diesel buses and to
convert old public transport vehicles with CNG. The 'Green Bus’ and other schemes will help to
reduce the severe air pollution which exists in some parts of Karachi.
Urbanisation has increased the size of Pakistan’s biggest cities so rapidly that the national,
regional and local governments are unable to deliver public services or create productive jobs.
Urban poverty is increasing, with one in eight urban dwellers living below the poverty line. This
is particularly true in Karachi.
• The State Bank of Pakistan estimates that urban housing was approximately 4.4 million units
short of demand in 2015. Pakistan’s five largest cities will account for 78 per cent of the total
housing shortage by 2035. Even when the government provides housing it is often low quality.
Karachi, one of the world’s fastest growing megacities with an estimated 17 million people, has
the second highest amount of substandard housing in South Asia and sixth highest globally.

Climate change
Causes: Fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – are by far the largest contributor to global climate change,
accounting for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all
carbon dioxide emissions.

As greenhouse gas emissions blanket the Earth, they trap the sun’s heat. This leads to global
warming and climate change. The world is now warming faster than at any point in recorded history.
Warmer temperatures over time are changing weather patterns and disrupting the usual balance of
nature. This poses many risks to human beings and all other forms of life on Earth.

Cutting down forests

Cutting down forests to create farms or pastures, or for other reasons, causes
emissions, since trees, when they are cut, release the carbon they have been storing.
Each year approximately 12 million hectares of forest are destroyed. Since forests
absorb carbon dioxide, destroying them also limits nature’s ability to keep emissions
out of the atmosphere. Deforestation, together with agriculture and other land use
changes, is responsible for roughly a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions.

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Causes of global warming/ climate change

● In recent times, human activities have had a significant impact on climate change and
the associated enhanced greenhouse effect.

● Human activities such as industry, transport, energy production and farming produce
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane that have enhanced the
greenhouse effect leading to global warming.

● Greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, acting like a blanket and lead to
increases in the temperature of the Earth.

● Greenhouse gases can be produced by both human activity and natural causes.
Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide occur naturally in the atmosphere although
human activity has significantly enhanced their concentration. Other greenhouse gases
such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are only produced by human activity.

Natural/physical causes

● Variations in solar output can take place due to sunspot activity.

● Increased sunspot activity has been recorded in periods of increased temperatures

with decreased sunspot activity being recorded in cooler periods of the Earth’s history.

● Periods of increased volcanic activity have been associated with periods where there
has been a reduction in global temperatures as a consequence of ash clouds reflecting
solar energy.

● In the long-term, research has suggested that volcanic activity can have a warming
effect due to the emission of carbon dioxide, contributing to the greenhouse effect.

● Changes in the Earth’s orbit, the Earth’s tilt and the Earth’s wobble have resulted in
variations in the amounts of solar energy reaching the Earth’s surface.

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The impacts of climate change on Pakistan

Increases in the frequency and severity of tropical storms may cause more loss of human life,
plus damage to buildings and infrastructure.

Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to large areas of low-lying land, high
population densities and inadequate infrastructure.
• Climate change is projected to change the intensity and frequency of natural disasters,
exacerbate the extent of river and coastal flooding as well as negatively impact agricultural
productivity, infrastructure and development projects.

With increasing glacier melt, protracted droughts, scorching winters and early summers, Pakistan
is experiencing the negative effects of climate change, significantly affecting water supplies and
total agricultural production.
Because the country has a low forest cover (4.5 percent) and a high pace of deforestation (0.2-
0.4 percent per year), the carbon sinks are rapidly depleting. Climate change is projected to have
long-term consequences for biodiversity (species extinction and habitat loss), water availability,
food security, human health, and overall well-being.
Food Security
Due to increase in global warming shifts in length of the day and night and increasing
temperature, not only humans but also plants are effected. Major crops that provide large
portion of food to the world are being affected by climate changes. Wheat, rice, maize and
sugarcane are major crops of Pakistan. Pakistan possesses world largest irrigation system of the
world watered by Indus and its tributary rivers. Due to rapid depletion of ground water, changes
in rain spells, melting of glaciers and political and geographical issues, Pakistan is going to face
scarcity of water in future.
According to an estimate every 1 Celcius rise in temperature, shifts core crop production area 3
degree (latitude) towards north. In this scenario mare 3 Celcius increase in temperature will
deprive whole lower Sindh to grow wheat and 6 Celcius increase will make all of the Pakistan
unable to grow wheat. Same is the case with other major crops.
Floods and Glaciers Melting
In the recent decade, Pakistan has faced many floods but the worst of them was flood of 2022.
And 2010 flood destroyed agriculture fields, infrastructures and villages in central Punjab, south
Punjab and Sindh. About 20 million people were badly effected and 1800 direct fatalities were
reported. 2010 flood proved very burdensome on Pakistan’s economy.
Pakistan is host to world’s third largest glaciers of Himalaya and Karakorum ranges that feed
major rivers of the region. Due to climate changes and continuous human activities glaciers are
deteriorating and melting day by day. This situation poses a strong danger of flood and scarcity
of water in future.

Rain Fall Pattern Change

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Due to continuous variations in climate increased global warming, prolonged summer season and
intense heat extremes, intensity, timing and pattern of rain fall, especially Monsoon is changing.
It is estimated that rain fall in southern areas will decrease causing shortage of water while it will
increase in northern areas which will result in heavy floods and destruction of agriculture
infrastructure. Timing of monsoon is changing and reducing but its intensity is increasing which
will have drastic impact over crops.

The impact of climate change may affect the economy of Pakistan.

• Responding to climate change requires high levels of financial investment from

government which diverts money from other services and economic development
programmes. Being implemented through the Ministry of Climate Change Division with a huge
allocation of Rs 4050 million under Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) in the budget
2023-24, budget but is likely to need to increase to cover all the costs identified for
adapting to climate change.
• • People may be forced to leave their homes. More than half of Pakistan’s
population live in Indus plain, and 10% live on the coast.
• • Any rise in sea level has the potential to flood a lot of homes, businesses and
agricultural land. Loss of agricultural land means loss of crops and therefore potential
exports which could lead to a reduced GDP and greater imbalance of trade.
• • Many farmers have reported changes associated with climate change
including unseasonable rain, a more intense dry season, and less rain. Given the
economy of Pakistan is dependent on agriculture it is particularly vulnerable.
• • Increases in the frequency and severity of tropical storms may cause more
loss of human life, plus more damage to buildings and infrastructure. This means
there will be greater investment required for disaster monitoring and prevention
which will divert money from other services, as well as money needed to respond to
the disaster events which may occur more frequently.

3.4 Present and future impacts of climate change on the people, economy and environment of
Pakistan and possible mitigation strategies

Mitigation measures are those actions that are taken to reduce and curb greenhouse gas
emissions, while adaptation measures are based on reducing vulnerability to the effects of
climate change.

Adaptation can be understood as the process of adjusting to the current and future effects of
climate change.

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Mitigation means making the impacts of climate change less severe by preventing or reducing
the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere.

Why is mitigation important for climate change?

The goal of mitigation is to avoid significant human interference with the climate system, and
“stabilize greenhouse gas levels in a timeframe. This allows ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic
development to proceed in a sustainable way.

Why is adaptation important for climate change?

Adaptation can help decrease climate risk via the three risk factors: hazards, vulnerability and
exposure. Impacts of climate hazards may be reduced with the help of ecosystem-based
adaptation. For instance, coastal flooding may be prevented if mangroves have the ability to
reduce storm energy.

Local actions for mitigation

 Use of public transport instead of cars, choice of electric vehicles, use of bicycles and walk.

 Planting more trees helps to reduce carbon emissions

 Adopting renewable energy sources like solar energy at local scale

 Water conservation strategies / awareness among people about use of water/less

wastage

Government strategies/Actions for mitigation

 Adopting renewable energy sources like HEP( Hydro-electric power) wind energy at
national scale

 Large scale afforestation campaign

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  Drive progress in clean energy technologies and bring them to commercial use.

 Switch to sustainable transport. ·

Local actions for adaptation

 Improve air conditioning in houses/building design

 Empower people to plan for and cope with the impacts of climate change.

 Boost immunity against the spread of tropical diseases

• Plant trees to provide shade/absorb carbon dioxide

• Painting roofs white

• • Increasing the use of renewable energy resources
• • Reducing water loss from irrigation schemes


Government strategies/Actions for adaptation

 New construction and functional improvements of embankments to cope with sea level
rise and storm surges.

 Measures to prevent outbreaks of contagious diseases such as dengue fever.)

 Raise the awareness and understanding of the overall population and government
personnel responsible for adaptation measures.

 Promotion of the development of monitoring and prediction technology.

 Improved weather forecasting/glacial monitoring.

Why adaptation is important for Pakistan?

Pakistan, a country increasingly exposed to disasters, is trying to cope with the impacts of climate
change and extreme weather, but has a long way to go due to its low technical and financial
capacity.

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 Countries are discussing how lives are still being lost to climate catastrophes, resulting in
irreplaceable losses. This is forcing people to rethink how climate change is being tackled.
For Pakistan this means a number of actions: identifying and prioritizing key hazards and
understanding the socio economic vulnerabilities of its people in order to calculate risks. Some
of these actions have already been taken in different parts of the country but there is no uniform
methodology that can help identify current issues and future challenges.
Adaptations initiatives
Pakistan prepared its National Climate Change Policy in 2012 which cover the broad issues that
Pakistan faces due to the changing climate. As one of the smallest carbon emitters, the country’s
policy primarily focuses on adaptation efforts rather than mitigation. It takes a sectoral approach,
suggesting policy measures for water, agriculture and livestock, forestry and biodiversity.
However, little has been done to implement this policy and there has been little progress on the
ground.
Pakistan court orders government to enforce climate law
Part of the reason may be that the policy was developed at a national level before the mandate
was moved to the provinces. While some of the provinces are making plans – such as the
reforestation drive and hydropower generation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the solar power
plant in Punjab – these standalone efforts have not been mainstreamed into development plans.
With the current government’s major focus on infrastructure, it becomes even more important
to do so.
Once there is a clear sense of what is at stake, Pakistan will be in a position to start sketching out
its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) – an international process established for all developing
countries as a means of identifying medium- and long-term adaptation needs. This process is
designed to be a country-driven, participatory process and will need to include the new narrative
on loss and damage as well.
Evaluate the extent to which the government of Pakistan has adapted to climate change. [8]
Pakistan, a country increasingly exposed to disasters, is trying to cope with the impacts of climate
change and extreme weathers. Pakistan will be in a position to start sketching out its National
Adaptation Plan (NAP) – an international process established for all developing countries as a
means of identifying medium- and long-term adaptation needs. Pakistan prepared its National
Climate Change Policy in 2012 which cover the broad issues that Pakistan faces due to the
changing climate. As one of the smallest carbon emitters, the country’s policy primarily focuses
on adaptation efforts rather than mitigation.
However, little has been done to implement this policy and there has been little progress on the
ground.
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Pakistan has a long way to go due to its low technical and financial capacity. These standalone
efforts have not been mainstreamed into development plans. With the current government’s
major focus on infrastructure, it becomes even more important to do so.

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