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Lecture Notes 2-28

The document discusses mathematical models for the dynamics of infections and epidemics, specifically the SIR model and the Ross-MacDonald model for vector-borne infections. It outlines the equations governing the populations of susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals, as well as the conditions for epidemic growth based on the basic reproduction rate. Additionally, it explores the relationships between these populations and their implications for understanding disease spread and control.

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4 views3 pages

Lecture Notes 2-28

The document discusses mathematical models for the dynamics of infections and epidemics, specifically the SIR model and the Ross-MacDonald model for vector-borne infections. It outlines the equations governing the populations of susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals, as well as the conditions for epidemic growth based on the basic reproduction rate. Additionally, it explores the relationships between these populations and their implications for understanding disease spread and control.

Uploaded by

cepem13540
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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AMATH 423/523 Mathematical Analysis in Biology and Medicine Winter, 2023

16 Dynamics of Infections and Epidemics


16.1 Susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model
The simplest model for the dynamics of an infectious epidemics consider three pupulations:
susceptible (S), infected/infectious (I), and recovered/removed (R):
dS
= SI, (228a)
dt
dI
= SI I, (228b)
dt
dR
= I. (228c)
dt
It is easy to show that the total population S(t) + I(t) + R(t) = N is a constant independent
of time t. Therefore, the system is a planar system. The reasonable initial conditions are
S(0) > 0, I(0) > 0, and R(0) = 0 are given; usually I(0) ⌧ S(0).
It is clear that the nonlinear system has a “degenerated” fixed point: I = 0 for any S!
Therefore, the long time behavior of the system is not uniquely defined just by the equations
alone: It is also dependent upon the initial values. A key question for the infectious disease
problem is “whether the I(t) will increase for t > 0”. To obtain this critical condition, one is
interested in the dI/dt = ( S )I. In fact the per capita growth rate of the infectious specie
is ( S ). Therefore, for the initial S(0) = S0 , the critical value is / ; and with a given
S(0), the critical condition is
S0
⌘ R̂0 , (229)

which is known as the basic reproduction rate of the infection. If R̂0 < 1, the I(t) is
monotonically decreasing with time from I(0); if R̂0 > 1, then the number of infected people,
not counting those recovered, will grow. This last case indicates an epidemic.
The differential equation can be solved in the following sense:
8
>
> dS
< = f (S, I)
dt dI g(S, I)
=) = .
>
> dI dS f (S, I)
: = g(S, I)
dt
Now using the method of separation of variables for the differential equation:
dI SI I r
= = 1+ , (230)
dS SI S
we obtain:
I(t) + S(t) ln S(t) = C = I0 + S0 ln S0 . (231)

Prof. Hong Qian 80 Tuesday 28th February, 2023, 13:54


AMATH 423/523 Mathematical Analysis in Biology and Medicine Winter, 2023

One can solve the Imax : It occurs at S = / and dI/dt = 0. The corresponding Imax
according to Eq. (231) is
✓ ◆ ✓ ◆
Imax = ln + I 0 + S0 ln S0 = N + ln .
S0

16.1.1 S–R relation

One can also combine Eqs. (228a) and (228c):


dS S
= . (232)
dR
This yields ⇢ ⇣ ⌘
S(t) = S0 exp R(t) R(0) = S0 e R(t)/
, (233)

since R(0) = 0. Then substituting this into Eq. (228c) we have obtained a single nonlinear
ODE for R(t):
dR ⇣ ⌘ ⇣ ⌘
= N S(t) R(t) = N R S0 e R/ .
dt
If R/ ⌧ 1, then this equation can be approximated as
( " ✓ ◆2 #)
dR R 1 R
= N R S0 1 +
dt 2
✓ 2 ◆
S0
= N S0 + S 0 R R2 . (234)
2
When S0 > 0, this is a similar equation as logistic growth.

16.1.2 Final population of S

Setting t = 1 in Eq. 233 we have


✓ ◆
R1
S1 = S0 exp .

When an epidemic is over, i.e., I = 0, can there still be a finite S1 ? To answer this
question, we consider
Note that S1 + R1 = N since the I1 = 0, we have
✓ ◆
S1 (N S1 )
= exp .
S0
That is, assuming S0 ' N , ✓ ◆
1 S1
ln ' . (235)
S1 S0 S0

Prof. Hong Qian 81 Tuesday 28th February, 2023, 13:54


AMATH 423/523 Mathematical Analysis in Biology and Medicine Winter, 2023

16.2 Ross-MacDonald model for vector-borne infections


16.2.1 Derivation

Let us now derive the Ross-MacDonald model for vector-borne infections in a host population.
Let I(t) and V (t) be the infected/infectious host population and the infectious vector (e.g.,
mosquito) population at time t:
8
>
> dI(t)
< = âb(N I)V P,
dt
(236)
>
> dV (t)
: = âb̂I(M V ) µV,
dt

in which b is the probability of infection after each bit, from a mosquito to a host, and the b̂
is the probability of infection after each bit from an infectious host to a uninfected mosquito!
â is the mean number of bits per unit time, N is the population number of the host, M is the
population number of the mosquito, is the recovery rate of the infectious person, and µ is the
recovery rate of an infectious mosquito.
In the Ross-MacDonald model, x = I/N represents the population of host that is infected,
thus (1 x) = S/N being susceptible, and y = V /M is the faction of the mosquito that is
infected and thus infectious. Eq. (236) thus becomes
dx
= âbM (1 x)y x, (237a)
dt
dy
= âb̂N x(1 y) µy. (237b)
dt
Comparing these two equations with the standard Ross-MacDonald model,

dx abM (1 x)y
= x, (238a)
dt N
dy
= ab̂x(1 y) µy, (238b)
dt
we see that a = N â. The rate of encountering using a is known as frequency-dependent,
in contrast to using â that is called density-dependent: With same population sizes for all
participants, the â(V ) decreases with increasing size of the space (V ) in which encounters take
place.

Prof. Hong Qian 82 Tuesday 28th February, 2023, 13:54

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