Risk Management Tolosa
Risk Management Tolosa
BY
TOLOSA AMENTE
ID NO. 234/2012
Oct, 2021
BY
TOLOSA AMENTE
ADVISOR
SHEMELIS ZEWDIE (ASSISTANT PROFESSOR)
Oct, 2021
APPROVAL SHEET
This is to certify that the thesis entitled “PRACTICES OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN
CONSTRUCTION PROJECT IN ETHIOPIAN BUILDING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS”
Department of PROJECT MANAGEMENT and has been carried out by recommended that the
student has fulfilled the requirements and hence hereby can submit the thesis to the department
for defense. We the examiners’ board approve that this thesis has passed through the defense and
review process.
. .
Name of chairman Signature Date
. .
Name of co-advisor Signature Date
. .
Name of external examiner Signature Date
. .
Name of internal examiner Signature Date
Final approval and acceptance of the thesis is contingent upon the submission of the final copy of
the thesis to the postgraduate coordinator through the academic council of the candidate’s
academy.
I hereby certify that I have read this thesis prepared under my direction and recommended that it
is accepted as fulfilling the thesis requirements.
. .
Name of major thesis signature date
DECLARATION
I hereby stated that this thesis is for the Degree of Master of art entitled “PRACTICES OF
RISK MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT IN ETHIOPIAN BUILDING
CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS” The research is the original work and has no submitted any
previous research on this title. The researcher then declared that the thesis is his own
authentic work and confirmed by his signature singed below.
ADDIS COLLEGE
Acknowledgment
First of all, my heartfelt thank goes to the Almighty God for his blessings, knowledge,
inspiration and diligence required for the successful completion of this thesis and for making my
dream real. My special thanks and recognition also goes to my research advisor SHEMELIS
ZEWDIE (ASSISTANT PROFESSOR), for his stimulating advice and constructive comments at
every step of writing this thesis as well as for his unreserved efforts to assist me.
My appreciation and thanks is also extended to my family who directly or indirectly contribute
their unlimited initiation and facilitation during my study.
Last but not least, I would like to thank all who have helped me in doing this research, especially
department of project management and Ethiopian building construction workers giving this
success.
1.3. Objectives
2.1. Introduction
This chapter presents the findings from different reviewed literatures on the subjects of
construction, project delivery systems, contract, risk and risk management. The risk facing any
project depends on the type and methods of construction, the stage of construction, the type of
contract and delivery system and project type and complexity etc. similarly the risk management
technique that should be applied also depends on the above factors. Hence, the literature review
tried to highlight these issues in relation to risk with the main focus being on management of
construction risk starting from the contractual stage.
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, defines building construction as the process of adding structure
with walls to real property or construction of buildings. It further discuses that if this buildings
are not designed and constructed by professionals they might lead to undesirable results such as
structural collapse, cost overrun and disputes. A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to
create a unique product, service or result (Project Management institute, 2008). According to
Hillson D., (2009), all projects are risky and there are three separate reasons for that. The first
reason is that all projects share common characteristics which inevitably introduce uncertainty.
Some of this common characteristics are projects are unique, complex, involve assumptions and
constraints, performed by people and involve change from a known present to an unknown
future. The second reason is that all projects are undertaken to achieve some specific objectives.
The final reason is that all projects are affected by the external environment they exist in.
A building construction project, like any other project, also faces different risks throughout the
life of the project. According to Nafishah B., (2006), this is due to the uniqueness of every
project, the uncertainties introduced by the project stakeholders, statutory or regulatory protocols
and other intrinsic and extrinsic constraints. He further discusses that risk can constrain the
achievement of key project objectives, time, cost and quality. Inability to achieve the project
objectives has great consequence on all project stakeholders involved in the construction. For the
client it could mean extra cost and less return on investment, for the consultants it could result in
loss of confidence placed in them by the clients, for the contractor it could mean loss of profit
and bad reputation etc. The construction industry is a very important part of any country. It
highly contributes to the growth and development of the economy in developing countries like
Ethiopia (JillWells. 2001; Moavenzdadeh F. 1976). According to these studies, the construction
industry plays a major role in developing countries since it constitutes a significant portion of
Gross national product and employment; at least three-quarters of the world’s construction
workers are in the less developed countries. The studies also state that construction workers in
the less developed countries are more exposed to accidents and endure much poorer terms and
conditions of work than workers in the developed countries. According to the general labor
office meeting report, Geneva, JillWells, 2001, the construction industry has a poor report image
due to poor construction and inadequate inspection. The report says this poor image is directly a
result of the nature of the work which is difficult and dangerous. Construction is a major
component of investment; hence expansion in construction activity is closely related to economic
growth. Numerous studies have shown that construction output grows particularly fast, often
exceeding the rate of growth of the economy as a whole, as countries put their basic
infrastructure in place during the early stages of development. This implies that construction
plays a major role in improving the economic growth of a country. Despite improvements in the
project risk management practices across the developed countries construction industry, in the
developing countries construction projects are still suffering from ill-defined scope, design and
mismanagement. And as a result, the projects are accompanied by clear time, cost and quality
gaps (Monvenzadeh F., et al, 1976; Jill Wells, 2001) Risk is unavoidable in almost all
construction projects. Because of exposure to the outdoors, construction is affected by both daily
and seasonal weather variations. It is also often influenced significantly by the availability of
local construction financing, labor, materials, and equipment etc. These and all the above
mentioned factors make construction a very risky undertaking. Construction is especially
important in developing countries since it can greatly contribute to the economic growth but as
mentioned above the industry is faced with a lot of problems. Hence, to make the construction
effective and efficient there should be some way to manage and control the risks and minimize
the problems. According to Hillson D., (2009), since all projects are exposed to risk, successful
projects are the ones where that risk is properly managed.
Therefore, ISO 31000 applies to existing legacy management practices to formalize and improve
risk management processes (Robert, 2016). Nevertheless, most texts on project management do
not consider the way uncertainty management should be integrated with project management
more generally, in terms of a wide view of what a coordinated approach to proactive and reactive
uncertainty management can achieve (Chapman and Ward, 2003).
Various risk management tools are available, but unfortunately they are not suitable for many
industries, organizations and projects (Chapman C. & Ward S, 1997). Although today’s
organizations appreciate the benefits of managing risks in construction projects, formal risk
analysis and management techniques are rarely used due to lack of knowledge and to doubts on
the suitability of these techniques for construction projects.
There are four alternative strategies – risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk mitigation, and risk
acceptance, for treating risks in a construction project. As stated by Hillson,2000, risk mitigation
and risk response development is often the weakest part of the risk management process. The
proper management of risks requires that they be identified and allocated in a well-defined
manner. This can only be achieved if contracting parties comprehend their risk responsibilities,
risk event conditions, and risk handling capabilities Opolot, P.K., Buys, N.S. & Slabber, J.M.
2009.
Before the crisis (2004-2008), due to a lack of contractors’ responsibilities and control in various
steps of a project’s development, the time and quality performance levels of construction projects
in the Lithuania were generally inadequate or even poor. In construction projects, many parties
are involved such as owner, consultant, contractor, subcontractor, and supplier. Each party has its
own risks. Risk transfer means the shift of risk responsibility to another party either by insurance
or by contract. Wang and Chou, 2003 reported that contractors usually use three methods to
transfer risk in construction projects. Through insurance to insurance companies; through
subcontracting to subcontractor; through modifying the contract terms and conditions to client or
other parties.
Construction projects can be managed using various risk management tools and techniques.
Ahmed et al. 2007 reviewed techniques that can be used for development of risk management
tools for engineering projects. Techniques for context establishment, risk identification, risk
assessment and treatment were provided. Application of risk management tools depends on the
nature of the project, organization’s policy, project management strategy, risk attitude of the
project team members, and availability of the resources (Smith, N.J., Merna, T., & Jobbling P,
2006). A risk assessor model (RAM) presented by (Jannadi and Almishari ,2003) was developed
to determine risk scores for various construction activities. The model provides an acceptability
level for the risks and determines a quantitative justification for the proposed remedy.
Risks and uncertainties, involved in construction projects, cause cost overrun, schedule delay and
lack of quality during the progression of the projects and at their end (Giannakis, M., & Louis,
M.(2011) and Mazouni, M.H. (2008). As stated by Baloi and Price (2012), poor cost
performance of construction projects seems to be the norm rather than the exception, and both
clients and contractors suffer significant financial losses due to cost overruns.
Oyegoke et al. 2008 discusses the problems of managing risk and uncertainty in construction
project due to the owner dissatisfaction in project outcome and dynamism within agile
construction environment. The authors identified some areas in supply chain processes which are
prone to greater risks and uncertainty and propose an agile management principle based on the
concept of integration and fragmentation in product development and execution processes
respectively.
Many authors have reviewed problems on time performance in construction projects. Aibinu and
Odenyinka (2006) investigated and assessed the causes of delays in building projects in Nigeria.
The nine factor categories evaluated include: client-, contractor-, quantity surveyor-, architect-,
structural engineer-, services engineer-, supplier-, and subcontractor-caused delays, and external
factors (i.e. delays not caused by the project participants). Finally, ten overall delay factors were
identified, namely: contractors’ financial difficulties, client’ cash flow problems, architects’
incomplete drawings, subcontractors’ slow mobilization, equipment break-down and
maintenance problems, suppliers; late delivery of ordered materials, incomplete structural
drawings, contractors’ planning and scheduling problems, price escalation, and subcontractors’
financial difficulties. The authors pointed the poor risk management as one of the principal delay
factors and concluded that actions and inactions of construction project participants contribute to
overall project delays. According to Baloi and Price (2012), the construction contractors
highlight that delay in payments is common both in private and public projects, with the public
sector being the worse defaulter. Moreover, most types of contracts presume compensation
clauses for delay in payments, but clients rarely agree to pay the interests due to the contract.
Nasir et al. 2003 analysed schedule risks and developed a comprehensive construction schedule
risk model is referred to as Evaluating Risk in Construction–Schedule Model (ERIC-S). The
ERIC-S model provides decision support to project owners, consultants, and researchers as a
project delay prediction tool. Similarly, the Cost-Time-Risk diagram (CTR) proposed by
Aramvareekul and Seider (2006) helps project managers consider project risk issues while
monitoring and controlling their project schedule and cost performance in one diagram. The
performance by the project management team highly influences the success of a construction
project. Some of the incidental risks associated with poor project management performance are
(Chan APC, Chan DWM, Ho KSK, 2003):
Many authors have recognized the value of trust within the project business. Lewicki and Bunker
(1996) emphasize that trust is a critical success element to most business, professional, and
employment relationships. Trust is argued to improve the inter-organizational relationships
among principal actors in project development, such as owners, contractors, and suppliers Andi,
(2006). According by Krane et al. (2012) trust between project owners and project managers is
crucial for project success. In business relations, as stated by Kaklauskas et al. (2010), the global
economic crisis brought about distrust of other stakeholders. Trust reinforces the relationships of
the critical stakeholder that often determine the success of a project. Ward and Chapman (2008)
concluded that stakeholders are a major source of uncertainty in construction projects. Smyth et
al. (2010) note that trust provides an important resource for creating greater probability and
certainty. Wilkinson (2004) found that project management companies need to overcome
problems in their relationships with other professionals on the project team and with the client.
For the success of construction projects, there is a need for alignment of the project owners’
interests and the project management team's interests and trust between them.
Construction projects are tendered and executed under different contract systems and payment
methods (2001). According by Zaghloul and Hartman (2003), there is no possibility to eliminate
all the risks associated with a specific project. All that can be done is to regulate the risk
allocated to different parties and then to properly manage the risk. Chapman and Ward (2008)
argue that the contract choice decisions are central to both stakeholder management and the
management of risk and uncertainty. The authors proposed an integrated approach based on a
balanced incentive and risk sharing (BIARS) approach to contracting as well as a best practice
approach to risk management in terms of the whole project life cycle.
Contractors generally aim to make an acceptable range of profit margin. Profit margins in the
industry have been low for most contractors on projects in recent years. Correct understanding
and allocation of risk helps for contractors to avoid erosion of the profit margin. Ökmen and
Öztas (2010) proposed a new simulation-based model – the correlated cost risk analysis model
(CCRAM) – to analyses the construction costs under uncertainty when the costs and risk-factors
are correlated. The CCRAM model captures the correlation between the costs and risk-factors
indirectly and qualitatively. Baloi and Price (2003) determined the most critical risk factors
affecting construction cost performance. The authors stated that global risk factors pose more
challenges to contractors, which are less familiar with them. The authors introduced a fuzzy
decision framework for a systematic modeling, analysis and management of global risk factors
affecting construction cost performance from contractor’s perspective and at a project level.
Similarly, Ismail et al. 2008 provide a ‘Level-Severity-Probability’ approach to determine the
critical risk source and factors. Fuzzy logic is used in the proposed methodology for evaluation
of the risk level, severity and probability. As stated by Zeng et al. 2007, the application of fuzzy
reasoning techniques provides an effective tool to handle the uncertainties and subjectivities
arising in the construction project.
The review of the literature revealed a wide range of risk types and sources in construction
projects, and that various risk management methods and techniques can be employed in the
management of construction projects in order to control potential risks.
Generally two broad categories, namely, qualitative and quantitative analysis are distinguished in
literature on risk assessment. A qualitative analysis allows the key risk factors to be identified.
Risk factors may be identified through a data-driven (quantitative) methodology or qualitative
process such as interviews, brainstorming, and checklists. It is considered as an evaluation
process which involves description of each risk and its impacts or the subjective labeling of risk
(high/medium/low) in terms of both risk impact and probability of its occurrence (Zou PXW,
Zhang G, Wang J, 2007). Qualitative risk analysis assesses the impact and likelihood of the
identified risks and develops prioritized lists of the risks for further analysis or direct mitigation.
Carr and Tah (2001) introduced a hierarchical risk breakdown structure (HRBS), and the HRBS
represents a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. Quantitative analysis involves more
sophisticated techniques and methods to investigate and analyze construction project risks.
Quantitative risk analysis attempts to estimate the frequency of risks and the magnitude of their
consequences by different methods such as the decision tree analysis, the cost risk analysis, and
Monte Carlo simulation (2006). The application of the quantitative risk analysis allows the
construction project exposure to be modelled, and quantifies the probability of occurrence of the
identified risk factors as well as their potential impact.
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
3.1. Introduction
This chapter focused on the research methods used to find answers to the research objectives.
The research methodology and design, target population, sampling procedures and sample size,
data collection methods, reliability and validity of the data collection instruments and
procedures, and finally, the data analysis and ethical considerations is presented in the chapter.
N
n= 2
1+ N (e)
6284
n= 2
1+6284 (0.05)
n=376
Where
n is the sample size
N is the population size 6284, and
e is the level of precision. When this formula is applied to the above sample with 95%
confidence level.
A total of 376 questionnaires were sent to contractors and consultants in the Ethiopian building
construction project. 319 (84.84%) responses were collected, whereas 57(15.16%) questionnaires
were not responded and this small number of unreturned questionnaires does not affect the data
required for the analysis of the study.
A total of 319 respondents were used for the research, out of which 252 were building and
general contractors and 67 were consultants. Grades one up to five were used for the research.
Both close and open ended questions were asked in the questionnaire. The close ended questions
had a number of choices of possible answers and the respondents selected whatever they feel was
most appropriate. The closed ended questions were selected because they are easier to assess and
answer considering how busy the respondents were. Open ended questions were used only in few
places where the response options were relatively wide and not known but unfortunately none of
the respondent used these parts to specify their answers.
3.6.2. Interview
Interview with project participants aimed to get a deeper analysis of the risk management process
and find risk management practices of the companies under study to get some insights. Before
conducting an interview, the researcher prepared an interview schedule consisting of semi
structured questions. Based on these questions, some probing questions were also asked to obtain
an in depth information from the participants. The willingness of the participants was assured
before the interview was conducted to address ethical considerations. Four of the interviews took
place in the respondents ‘site office; the interview was conducted via translation. Since there was
only one translator, it was difficult to address each interviewee separately. So, the interview was
held with all respondents at a time as though it were focus group discussion. Whereas two of the
interviews done at respondents ‘office. Five allowed the interviewer to record the interview
while one allowed only notes to be taken.
4.1 Introduction
This chapter presents data analysis and interpretations, which draws from the objectives of the
study. Descriptive statistics tools presented by using tables, percentages and mean score were
used to analyze information generated from respondents with the help of SPSS v20 software.
The analyses are both qualitative and quantitative. The chapter is structured according to the
questions in the questionnaire and provides discussion of the findings, their implications.
Moreover the additional data and observations, gained from the survey will be as well
incorporated into the discussion.
The percentage distribution of the various professionals indicates that the majority of the
questionnaires were completed directly by professionals involved in the construction
performance.
The survey also shows that it was well represented by better qualified professionals in the
construction management and these groups of respondents are expected to have plenty of
knowledge on the subject matter.
Regarding to profession of respondents from the above table 4.3, Out of the 319 respondents
78(24.5%) were Project Manager, 122(38.2%) of them were project engineer, 36(11.3%) of them
were risk auditor, 45(14.1%) of them Risk chief /officer, 31(9.7%) of them were members of
project and 7(2.2%) of them were Implementation Team.
In the above table 4.3 With regard to their years of experiences in the project, majority the
respondents have accumulated sample amount of experiences in construction projects, and it is
elaborated as follows: 75(23.5%) of the respondents have participated in construction projects
for less than 5 years and 134(42%) of them have between 5-10 years of experiences. Only 110
(34.5%) of the respondents have more than 10 years of experiences in dealing with construction
projects. This indicates that most of the employees have well experienced in the Addis Ababa
building construction project management. This might indicate that the more they are
experienced in undertaking construction projects, the better they might become familiar with
construction project risk management practices.
The finding shows that out of 319 respondents 156(48.9%) respondents answered the
organization has a clear risk identification process while 163(51.1%) respondents answered the
organization has not a clear risk identification process.
Approximately 36.1% of the respondents (115 people) stated that they identify risks by
Knowledge, 21.6% (69 people) was using analysis for risk identification and 129% chose
experience as their answer as presented in table 16. Around 1.9% chose other as an answer
stating they usually combine all of the options when identifying risks or only some of the
options.
Experience from previous projects as well as the usage of checklists was equally chosen amongst
the respondents, at approximately 37.9% (121 out of 319 respondents) and thus exposing them as
the most frequently used methods for risk identification. Thereafter source identification at
around 32.6% as presented in table 17 and brainstorming at 13.2%. Finally interviews at around
8.2%, third party at 4.4%, no method at 1.9% and other at about 1.9%.
The questionnaire consisted of additional statement questions in regard to risk response methods
in order to estimate which methods they usually implement within their organizations. The
majority of the respondents chose the ”agree” option regarding the respondents most often chose
avoidance at 74%, mitigation at 53% and acceptance at 49.9% while transfer had a response rate
of 61.7%. Regarding the ”disagree” option the respondents most often chose acceptance of risks
at 51.1%, transfer of risks 38.2%, Mitigation 47% while avoidance had a response rate of 26.1%.
Number of responses
Time impact Cost impact Quality impact
High Medium Low Mean High Medium Low Mean High Mediu Low Mean
m
Contractual 124 135 60 2.201 133 135 51 2.341 136 123 60 2.197
Financial 115 121 83 1.899 113 121 85 1.912 113 122 84 1.909
Political 159 118 42 1.633 156 120 43 1.648 155 121 43 1.649
Performance 201 75 43 1.505 199 75 45 1.572 199 76 44 1.514
Technical 64 136 119 2.172 60 135 124 2.206 60 136 123 2.197
Geographical 115 121 83 1.899 113 121 85 1.922 113 122 84 1.909
Operator 147 115 57 1.718 156 120 43 1.648 155 121 43 1.649
Table 4.10 shows the impact the different areas of risk have on project objectives, with ‘1’
representing ‘low’, ‘2’ representing ‘medium’ and ‘3’ representing ‘high’ impact. It can be
observed form this table, that the majority of the respondents believe contractual, technical,
financial, geographical risk area have the highest impact on time followed by operator risk.
While political risk and performance risk has the lowest impact on time. The contractual,
technical, financial risk areas were found to have the highest impact on cost while political and
performance risk was said to have the lowest impact on cost. Technical, contractual and financial
risk areas were evaluated to have the highest influence on quality while political, operator and
performance risk area was believed to have the lowest impact on quality. Overall the respondents
believed financial, technical and contractual risk areas have the most influence on project
objectives. As already discussed earlier performance, operator and political risk has low
probability of occurrence and even if it occurs, its impact on project objectives is very low.
Hence performance, operator and political risk is not a major concern in the Ethiopian building
construction projects. On the other hand, technical, financial and contractual risks have high
probability of occurrence and high impact or consequence on projects. Geographical risk was
also identified to have a big effect on time, budget and quality in Ethiopian building construction
projects.
Majority of the respondents, 63% said they use risk management techniques while the remaining
37% stated they don’t use any risk management techniques.
If your answer to (Does your company use risk management techniques?) is no, what is the reason
Frequency Valid Percent
Among the group which don’t use risk management techniques around 47.1% put down lack of
awareness as their main reason. From the other hand 17.6% put they are expensive as an excuse
for not using risk management techniques. A small portion 14.3% doesn’t use this techniques
fearing they are time consuming.
If your answer to (Does your company use risk management techniques?) is yes, at what stage of the
construction does your company use risk management?
Frequency Valid Percent
Others 22 6.9
The fact that most respondents believe there is no need to have a specialized risk management
team shows that a lot needs to be done to disclose the importance of risk management in
achieving project goals. The project manager alone cannot be expected to deal with all the risks
that are encountered in his project especially for big and complex projects.
It is believed that participants working in different positions with different years of experiences
as well as educational levels in construction projects in Ethiopian building construction, it is
important to investigate their experiences of project risk management practices. Hence, in a
Likert scale of 1 to 5, the respondents were required to indicate the level of applicability of
RMPs to the projects they were engaged in. A level of 1 indicated RMP is not applied to the
projects while a level of 5 indicated that the process is very greatly applied to the projects. Thus,
table 4.13 sought the general information about risk management practices of the companies
starting from risk management planning. As indicated in the table, the respondents rated there
was efficient risk management plan with mean 3.351 a frequently applied technique in the firms
to determine the success of a projects. Hold meeting to develop risk management plan and
Develop Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) to define risk categories were techniques applied to
some extent with mean of 3.489 and 3.319 whereas Define risk management activities in the
schedule and estimating resources and cost required for RM were the least applied methods,
recording 3.097 and 3.169 respectively. This was done in order to determine which technique
was frequently practiced in the companies.
Table 4.14 shows that using risk matrix to identify risks that require the most attention by
quantifying their relative contribution to the overall project risk and using a risk matrix that
defines probability/likelihood, assess the probability of achieving specific project objectives and
impact exist in the company to define the probability and impacts of risks in achieving specific
project objectives are the most widely used tools/techniques to qualitatively assess risks. This is
depicted through the corresponding mean scores of 3.3386, 3.2006 3.0846 and respectively. On
the other hand, having well established qualitative risk analysis system, and having processes in
place to quantify risks are applied to the lesser extent by the companies.
Regarding risk response strategies of the companies, acceptable mitigation steps of treating risk
must be employed once the project risks have been known and analyzed. These mitigation steps
are based mostly on the nature and potential consequences involved in the risk. There are a
number of risk response strategies that determine or assist the success of construction project.
Table 4.15 shows the arithmetic mean of the rankings rated by respondents. As indicated in the
table, risk acceptance/ retention is the highest ranked by the respondents with the average mean
of 3.469 followed by Contingency plan is allocated for cost and Based on the analyzed risks, risk
management plan is developed and communicated to all stakeholders with the average mean
3.257 and 3.25 respectively.
The risk management tools and techniques is presented in Table 4.27. The overall use of risk
management tools and techniques is minimal. Out of the five tools and techniques, open and
effective communication channels between/ among project team, the contractors, consultants,
client and using risk register/matrix reviewed by the project team/project manager are ranked as
the most frequently used risk management practices. The use of strategic risk identification
techniques, incorporating risk database system and the use of statistical analysis is rather limited.
Ethiopian building construction rely on expert judgment, experience and intuition to manage
project risks.
It is surprising to see that some of the fundamental risk management tools, such as sensitivity
analysis, decision trees and influence diagrams, are rarely used for construction projects. These
results confirm the findings of Akintoye and MacLeod (1997 in El-Sayegh, 2014) that almost all
organizations depend on intuition or expert judgment/experience to manage risks involved in
construction projects.
CHAPTER FIVE
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
5.1. Conclusions
Risk management is one of the most critical factors in project management practices to verify a
project is successfully completed (Euripides, 2008). The reviewed literature showed that
construction contract risk management is vital in any construction and that different risk
management techniques should be used starting from the contractual stage to make projects
successful. Most building construction projects in Ethiopia fail to meet their objectives and the
questionnaire was devised to discover if lack of proper risk management procedures might be
contributory to this effect among other things. The questionnaire survey was believed to contain
all the important research questions which were helpful in fulfilling the research questions.
Based on the findings of this study the following conclusions are drawn in line with the research
objectives.
The importance of implementing an effective risk management is shared among actors in the
industry, especially in the planning and production phase while risk identification was perceived
to be most important out of the four core processes.
Most of the parties involved in the Ethiopian building construction projects are aware of the
concept of risk management but only a relatively smaller number of this group believe they have
an adequate knowledge needed for applying these risk management techniques to make their
projects successful.
Most parties involved in Ethiopian building construction projects don’t use risk management
techniques in their projects because of lack of awareness about their significance and some don’t
use them fearing they need to hire additional staff and acquire more resources.
Financial difficulty and poor contract management were identified to be the most important
causes of risk with a very high level of occurrence and a high level of impact on project
objectives in the Ethiopian building construction projects.
The type of contract selected for the construction has a great influence on the level of risk
encountered. The most widely used type of contract in the Ethiopian building construction
projects is believed to be the unit rate contract and it is found to involve least level of risk.
The methods and techniques mostly used in the building projects to identify, assess, allocate and
mitigate the risks are highly dependent on an individual’s judgment and past experience. In most
projects, there is no specialized risk management team to deal with different risks that might
arise during the life of the project.
However, overall the ratings on the application of risk management techniques is not high, and
qualitative techniques obtained much higher ratings than quantitative techniques, suggesting
there is much room for improvement for using different risk management approaches, especially
quantitative techniques. For instance, some of the risk management activities that are found to be
insufficient include developing RBS to define risk categories, estimating resources and cost
needed for risk management, conducting brainstorming session with all project key participants
during risk identification, establishing qualitative and quantitative risk analysis methods and
techniques, and reduction strategies etc. are among others.
For risk analysis, the preferred tools used were risk matrix that defines probability/likelihood and
impact exist in the company’ and assess the probability of achieving specific project objectives‘.
For Risk response, respondents stated that the tools avoid the occurrence through proactive way
and Transfer to third party was the most common methods used when responding to risk. For
risk monitoring, it was found that the majority of the respondents indicated the project team
holds periodic meetings specifically for risk discussions as predominant technique. The
predominant risk mitigation technique used in the companies was risk transfer strategy.
Inflation rate is very high in the country and increasing proportionately with time, this causes the
increase in prices of materials like cement, steel which in turn causes financial risk to the land
developers and construction firms. Banks have also raised their interest rates for the loan given
by them, this have affected the construction market hugely. Thus the financial part of risk is very
high than any other risk. Political risk is substantially very low for the large firms when
compared to other risk.
The overall use of risk management tools and techniques is minimal. Out of the five tools and
techniques, open and effective communication channels between/ among project team, the
contractors, consultants, client and using risk register/matrix reviewed by the project
team/project manager are ranked as the most frequently used risk management practices.
5.2 Recommendations
Based on the findings of the research collected by personal observation and though the
questionnaire conducted in the organization; it is necessary to offer the following
recommendations are expected from key role players in construction projects.
Contractors may learn how to share and shift different risks by hiring specialized staff or
specialized sub-contractors.
Since lack of awareness was identified as a major cause for not having enough confidence for
using risk management techniques, regular trainings and workshops on the subject need to be
provided for the parties involved in building construction projects. All parties should be
encouraged to take part and participate in trainings and workshops and try to increase their
knowledge of risk management.
A special attention may be given to managing Financial and Contractual areas of risk since
they were identified as most important risks in Ethiopian building construction projects.
Establishing a risk management team is highly recommended in the Ethiopian building
construction projects.
Relevant clauses that deal with risk may be included in the construction contract and the risk
allocated to the party that is in the best position to control and manage it in order to increase
the odds of achieving the project objectives.
Recommendations for further research is to investigate how the combination of risk
management and knowledge distribution is applied in a particular construction company,
supporting the development of standardized definitions and concepts in the industry.
6. REFERENCES
Adams, F. K., (2008) Risk perception and Bayesian analysis of international construction contract risks:
The case of payment delays in a developing economy, International Journal of Project Management 26(2),
pp. 138–148.
Addis, M., 2014. A Study on Construction Contract Risk Management Practices in Ethiopian Building
Construction Projects. Unpublished MA Thesis. Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa,Ethiopia.
Ahmed A, Kayis B, Amornsawadwatana S. A review of techniques for risk management in projects.
Benchmark Int J 2007;14(1):22–36.
Aibinu AA, Odeyinka HA. Construction delays and their causative factors in Nigeria. J Constr Eng
Manage 2006;132(7):667–677.
Akintoye, A.S. and Macleod, M.J. (1997) Risk analysis and management in construction, International
Journal of Project Management, 12(1), pp. 31–38.
Alhassan, M.M., 2016. Exploring Project Risk Management Practices of Ghanaian Building
Contractors. Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology. Kumasi, Ghana.
Andi, (2006) The importance and allocation of risks in Indonesian construction projects,
Construction Management and Economics 24(1), pp. 69-80.
Antunes, R., Gonzalez, V., 2015. A Production Model for Construction: A Theoretical
Framework. www.mdpi.com/journal/buildings/ 209–228. https://doi.org/0.3390
Aramvareekul P, Seider DJ. Cost-time-risk diagram: project planning and management. Cost
Eng 2006;48(11):12–18.
Baloi, D. & Price, A. D. F. (2003) Modelling global risk factors affecting construction cost
performance. International Journal of Project Management, 21 (4), 261-269.
Baloi, D. (2012). Risk Analysis Techniques in Construction Engineering Projects; Journal of
Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 115-123.
Banaitiene, N., Audrius, B., 2012. Risk Management in Construction Projects. INTECH Open
Sci. 430–448. https://doi.org/10.5772/51460.
Carr V, Tah JHM. A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and analysis:
construction project risk management system. Adv Eng Softw 2001;32(10– 11):847–857.
Chan APC, Chan DWM, Ho KSK (2003). Partnering in construction: critical study of problems
for implementation. J Manage Eng,19:126–135.
Chapman, C. & Ward, S. (2002) Managing project risk and uncertainty: a constructively simple
approach to decision making, Chichester, Wiley.
Chapman, C. & Ward, S. (2004) Why risk efficiency is a key aspect of best practice projects.
International Journal of Project Management, 22 (8), 619-632.
Chapman, C., 1997. Project Risk Analysis and Management - PRAM the Generic Process;.
International Journal of Project Management, Volume 15, pp. 273-281.
Cooper, D., Grey, S., Raymond, G., and Walker, P., 2005. Project Risk Management
Guidelines:
Creswell, J.W., 2003. Research Design. Qualitative, Quantitative and Mixed Methods\
Approaches., in: Research Design. Sage Publication., UK, p. 26.
Dervishi, i., 2015. Menaxhimi i avancuar, analiza e cilësisë dhe vlerësimi i riskut të projekteve
inxhinierike, phd. Tiranë: upt al.
Dey PK, Ogunlana SO, 2004. Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques
for build-operate-transfer projects. Ind Manage Data Syst;104(4):334– 346.
Ejohwomu, I.J., 2014. A Study of Risk Management Practices in the Nigerian Construction
Industry. University of Wolverhampton, Nigeria.
El-Sayegh, S.M., 2014. Project risk management practices in the UAE construction industry. Int
J Proj. Organ. Manag. 6, Nos.1/2. https://doi.org/10.1504.
Euripides, R.A., 2008. Troubled Projects in Constructions due to Inadequate Risk Management.
City University of Seattle, USA.
Falcioni, R., 2016. Ethiopia‘s Construction Industry: Transforming a Nation. A Market Insights
Report by ITE Build & Interior.
Frezwed, A., 2016. Practice of Project Risk Management in Batu and Dukem Town Water
Supply Project. Unpublished MA Thesis. Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Harvett, .Craig Michael, 2013. A Study of Uncertainty and Risk Management Practice Relative
to Perceived Project Complexity. Bond University.
Hillson D. Developing effective risk responses. In Proceedings of the 30th Annual Project
Management Institute Seminars & Symposium, 10-16 October, 1999, Sylva. NC: Project
Management Institute; 2000.
Ismail A, Abbas MA, Zamri BC. Approach to analyze risk factors for construction projects
utilizing fuzzy logic. J Appl Sci 2008,8(20):3738–3742.
Jannadi OA, Almishari S. Risk assessment in construction. J Constr Eng Managet 2003;129(5):492–500.
JillWells, Tripartite Meeting on the Construction Industry in the Twenty-first Century: Its Image,
Employment Prospects and Skill Requirements, Geneva, 2001.
Kaklauskas A, Zavadskas EK, Bagdonavicius A, Kelpsiene L, Bardauskiene D, Kutut V.( 2010).
Conceptual modelling of construction and real estate crisis with emphasis on comparative
qualitative aspects description. Transformations in Business & Economics, 9,1 (19): 42–61.
Kerzner, H., 2009. Project Management, A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling and
Controlling. 10th ed. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Klemetti A. Risk management in construction project networks. Helsinki University of
Technology, Laboratory of Industrial Management, Report 2006/2, Espoo; 2006.
Kothari, C.R., 2004. Research Methodology: Methods and Techniques. Second. ed. New Age
International (P) Ltd., Publishers.
Krane HP, Olsson NOE, Rolstadås A (2012). How project manager–project owner interaction
can work within and influence project risk management. Proj Management, 43(2):54– 67.
Kuang, Z. (2010). Risk Management in Construction Projects. Denmark: VIA University
College, Horsens Campus, Denmark.
Lester, A., 2007. Project management, planning and control, 5th edition. Oxford: Elsevier Ltd
Lewicki RJ and Bunker BB 1996 . Developing and maintaining trust in work relationships. In:
Kramer RM, Tyler TR, editors. Trust in organizations: frontiers of theory and research.
Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications.
Loosemore M, Raftery J, Reilly C and Higgon D, 2006. Risk management in projects. 2and ed.
s.l.:Taylor and Francis.
Lyons, T. & Skitmore, M. (2004) Project risk management in the Queensland engineering
construction industry: a survey. International Journal of Project Management, 22 (1), 51-61.
Marco, 2014. Risk Analysis in Construction Projects: A Practical Selection Methodology. Am. J.
Appl. Sci. 11, 74–84. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2014.74.84.
Mills, A. (2001) A systematic approach to risk management for construction, Structural Survey,
19(5), pp. 245–252.
Moavenzadeh F., Rossow J. 1976, the construction industry in developing countries,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Nafisah Binti Abdul Rahiman, Managing Construction Project Risks; Case Study: University of
technology, Malaysia, 2006.
Nasir, D., McCabe, B., and Hartono, L. (2003), "Evaluating Risk in ConstructionSchedule Model
(ERIC-S): Construction Schedule Risk Model", ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and
Management, 129(5), pp.518-527.
Ofori, D.F., 2013a. Project Management Practices and Critical Success Factors–A Developing
Country Perspective. Int. J. Bus. Manag. 8. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v8n21p14.
Osipova, E. (2007) The impact of contractual and collaboration forms on risk management in
Swedish construction projects. Second International Conference World of Construction Project
Management. Delft, the Netherlands.
Oyegoke AS, Khalfan MMA, McDermott P, Dickinson M (2008), Managing risk and uncertainty
in an agile construction environment: application of agile building specialist model. Int J Agile
Syst Manage;3(3–4):248–262.
Öztas A, Ökmen Ö. Risk analysis in fixed-price design-build construction projects. Build
Environ 2004;39(2):229–237.
Pieplow, B., 2012. Project Risk Management Handbook: A Scalable Approach. Caltrans project
risk management.
PMBOK. (2013). Construction Extension to A Guide to the Project Management Body of
Knowledge. Project Management Institute.
PMBOK. 3rd edition. ,(2004) Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute, Inc.
PMI (2000) A guide to the project management body of knowledge, Newton Square, Project
Management Institute.
Potts, K., 2008. Construction cost management, learning from case studies. Abingdon: Taylor
Francis.
Project Management Institute. 2008, A guide to the project management body of knowledge
(PMBoK@), fourth edition, USA.
Raz Z, Shenhar AJ, Dvir D (2002). Risk management, project success and technological
uncertainty. R&D Manage, 32(2):101–109.
Robert, D., 2016. Project Risk Management. (N.P).
Robson, C. (2002) Real world reseach: a resourse for social scientists and practitioner –
researchers, Oxford, Blackwell Publishing.
Simu, K. (2006) Risk management in small construction projects. Department of Civil, Mining
and Environmental Engineering. Luleå, Luleå University of Technology.
Smith, N.J., Tony, M., and Jobling, P. (2006) Managing risk in construction projects, 2th ed:
Blackwell Publishing.
Smyth H, Gustafsson M, Ganskau E. (2010) The value of trust in project business. Int J Proj
Manage, 28(2): 117–129.
Uher TE and Loosemore M (2004), Essentials of construction project management. Sidney:
University of New South Wales Press.
Ward, S. & Chapman, C. (2003) Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty
management. International Journal of Project Management, 21 (2), 97-105.
Winch, G., 2002. Managing construction projects, an information processing approach. Oxford:
Blackwell Publishing.
Yimam, A.H., 2011. Project Management Maturity in the Construction Industry of Developing
Countries. (The Case of Ethiopian Contractors). University of Maryland, College Park, USA.
Zaghloul R, Hartman F (2003). Construction contracts: the cost of mistrust. Int J Project
Management.
Zeng, J., An, M. & Smith, N. J. (2007) Application of a fuzzy based decision making
methodology to construction project risk assessment. International Journal of Project
Management, 25 (6), 589-600.
Zou PXW, Zhang G, Wang J. Understanding the key risks in construction projects in China. Int J
Project Manage 2007;25(6):601–614.
Zwikael O and Sadeh A (2007). Planning effort as an effective risk management tool. J Oper
Manag, 25(4):755–767.
APPENDIX Questionnaire
Questionnaire Survey
Dear respondent”, I am Student of Masters of project Management, at Addis Collage. As partial
fulfillment of the program, I am undertaking a research on the topic of Practices of Risk
Management in Construction Project in Ethiopian Building Construction Projects. The research
result could be used as an input for decision makers, professionals, academician and other
interested groups to play their respective role for the achievement of project objectives.
It is believed that your participation in this research will contribute in achieving the objectives of
the research. Thus, the quality of your response towards the question items determines the
quality of the research results. Therefore, please answer the questions as thoroughly, objectively
and honestly as possible according to the instructions contained in the body of the questionnaire.
Finally, I want to assure you that all information provided in this survey will be treated with
strict confidentiality and allowed to serve only for the purpose of the research under
consideration.
Interested participant of this study will be given feedback on the overall research results after the
completion of the research work.
16. Which areas of risks occur more frequently in your building project and which areas of
risk cause major problems? Please rate them with their probability of occurrence and
level of consequence (1= low, 2= moderate, 3=high) and tick accordingly.
Risk Areas 1 2 3 1 2 3
Contractual
Financial
Political
Performance
Technical
Geographical
Operator
Other
17, Please rate the importance of risk management during every stage, (1=very low, 2=low, 3=
moderate, 4=high, 5=very high)
18, which area of risk, do you think, affects project objectives more? Please rank the impact the
risk areas have on project objectives.
Impact
Time Cost Quality
Risk Areas High Moderate Low High Moderate Low High Moderate Low
1. Contractual
2. Financial
3. Political
4. Performance
5. Technical
6. Geographical
7. Operator
8. Other
Risk Management Practices, Tools And Techniques/Strategies Applied To The Project.
1. Does your company use risk management techniques?
A, Yes B, No
2. If your answer to (Q. 1) is no, what is the reason (you can tick more than one box)
A, Lack of awareness B, They are expensive C, They are unnecessary D, They are time
consuming E, The need to hire additional staff D, Others, please specify ___________
3. If your answer to (Q. 1) is yes, at what stage of the construction does your company use
risk management?
A, before the start of construction (contractual stage) B, at all stages C, during construction
4. Who is responsible for managing of risk in your company?
A, the project manager B, the consultant C, the client D, a specialized risk
management team E, Others, please specify ___________________________
Kindly indicate the extent to which the following project risk management practices and
Strategies are applicable in your project(s) on a 5-point scale where, 1= Not Applied (NA) 2=
Applied to some extent (ATSE) 3= well applied (WA) 4= greatly applied (GA) and 5= Applied
to very great Extent (VGA). And Mark with a tick (√) against the most applicable response.
1. GENERAL INFORMATION ABOUT RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN
General information about Risk Management Plan 1 2 3 4 5
1 The presence of efficient risk management plan in your company.
2 Hold planning meetings to develop the risk management plan.
3 Develop Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) to define risk categories.
4 Estimated resources and costs needed for risk management activities and
include them in the project budget.
5 Define and include risk management activities in the schedule.
2. RISK ANALYSIS
Risk Analysis 1 2 3 4 5
1 There are established qualitative risk analysis methods and tools.
2 There is a process in place to quantify risks.
3 Assess the probability of achieving specific project objectives.
4 Identify risks that require the most attention by quantifying their relative
contribution to the overall project risk.
5 A risk matrix that defines probability/likelihood and impact exist in the
company.
3 RISK RESPONSE STRATEGIES