Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Fundamental Simulation Concepts

What We’ll Do ...

• Underlying ideas, methods, and issues in
simulation
• Software-independent (setting up for Arena)
• Centered around an example of a simple
processing system

Decompose the problem

Terminology

Simulation by hand

Some basic statistical issues

Overview of a simulation study

The System:
A Simple Processing System
Machine
(Server)
Arriving Departing
7 6 5 4
Blank Parts Finished Parts
Queue (FIFO) Part in Service
• General intent:

Estimate expected production

Waiting time in queue, queue length, proportion of time
machine is busy
• Time units

Can use different units in different places … must declare

Be careful to check the units when specifying inputs

Declare base time units for internal calculations, outputs

Be reasonable (interpretation, roundoff error)

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Model Specifics
• Initially (time 0) empty and idle
• Base time units: minutes
• Input data (assume given for now …), in minutes:
Part Number Arrival Time Interarrival Time Service Time
1 0.00 1.73 2.90
2 1.73 1.35 1.76
3 3.08 0.71 3.39
4 3.79 0.62 4.52
5 4.41 14.28 4.46
6 18.69 0.70 4.36
7 19.39 15.52 2.07
8 34.91 3.15 3.36
9 38.06 1.76 2.37
10 39.82 1.00 5.38
11 40.82 . .
. . . .
. . . .
• Stop when 20 minutes of (simulated) time have
passed

Goals of the Study:

Output Performance Measures
• Total production of parts over the run (P)
• Average waiting time of parts in queue:
N N = no. of parts completing queue wait
∑ WQ i WQi = waiting time in queue of ith part
i =1
Know: WQ1 = 0 (why?)
N
N > 1 (why?)
• Maximum waiting time of parts in queue:
max WQ i
i = 1,..., N

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Goals of the Study:

Output Performance Measures (cont’d.)

• Time-average number of parts in queue:

20
∫0 Q ( t ) dt Q(t) = number of parts in queue
20 at time t
• Maximum number of parts in queue: max Q ( t )
0 ≤ t ≤ 20
• Average and maximum total time in system of
parts (a.k.a. cycle time):
P
∑ TS i
i =1 , TS TSi = time in system of part i
max i
P i = 1 ,..., P

Goals of the Study:

Output Performance Measures (cont’d.)

• Utilization of the machine (proportion of time

busy)
20
∫0 B ( t ) dt , 1
B (t ) = 
if the machine is busy at time t
20 0 if the machine is idle at time t

• Many others possible (information overload?)

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Analysis Options
• Educated guessing

Average interarrival time = 4.08 minutes

Average service time = 3.46 minutes

So (on average) parts are being processed faster than they
arrive
– System has a chance of operating in a stable way in the long run,
i.e., might not “explode”
– If all interarrivals and service times were exactly at their mean, there
would never be a queue
– But the data clearly exhibit variability, so a queue could form

If we’d had average interarrival < average service time, and
this persisted, then queue would explode

Truth — between these extremes

Guessing has its limits …

Analysis Options (cont’d.)

• Queueing theory

Requires additional assumptions about the model

Popular, simple model: M/M/1 queue
– Interarrival times ~ exponential
– Service times ~ exponential, indep. of interarrivals
– Must have E(service) < E(interarrival)
– Steady-state (long-run, forever)
– Exact analytic results; e.g., average waiting time in queue is
µ S2 µ A = E(interarr ival time)
,
µ A − µS µ S = E(service time)

Problems: validity, estimating means, time frame

Often useful as first-cut approximation

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Mechanistic Simulation
• Individual operations (arrivals, service times) will
occur exactly as in reality
• Movements, changes occur at the right “time,” in
the right order
• Different pieces interact
• Install “observers” to get output performance
measures
• Concrete, “brute-force” analysis approach
• Nothing mysterious or subtle

But a lot of details, bookkeeping

Simulation software keeps track of things for you

Pieces of a Simulation Model

• Entities

“Players” that move around, change status, affect and are
affected by other entities

Dynamic objects — get created, move around, leave
(maybe)

Usually represent “real” things
– Our model: entities are the parts

Can have “fake” entities for modeling “tricks”
– Breakdown demon, break angel
Though Arena has built-in ways to model these examples directly

Usually have multiple realizations floating around

Can have different types of entities concurrently

Usually, identifying the types of entities is the first thing to
do in building a model

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Pieces of a Simulation Model (cont’d.)

• Attributes

Characteristic of all entities: describe, differentiate

All entities have same attribute “slots” but different values
for different entities, for example:
– Time of arrival
– Due date
– Priority
– Color

Attribute value tied to a specific entity

Like “local” (to entities) variables

Some automatic in Arena, some you define

Pieces of a Simulation Model (cont’d.)

• (Global) Variables

Reflects a characteristic of the whole model, not of specific
entities

Used for many different kinds of things
– Travel time between all station pairs
– Number of parts in system
– Simulation clock (built-in Arena variable)

Name, value of which there’s only one copy for the whole
model

Not tied to entities

Entities can access, change variables

Writing on the wall (rewriteable)

Some built-in by Arena, you can define others

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Pieces of a Simulation Model (cont’d.)

• Resources

What entities compete for
– People
– Equipment
– Space

Entity seizes a resource, uses it, releases it

Think of a resource being assigned to an entity, rather than
an entity “belonging to” a resource

“A” resource can have several units of capacity
– Seats at a table in a restaurant
– Identical ticketing agents at an airline counter

Number of units of resource can be changed during the
simulation

Pieces of a Simulation Model (cont’d.)

• Queues

Place for entities to wait when they can’t move on (maybe
since the resource they want to seize is not available)

Have names, often tied to a corresponding resource

Can have a finite capacity to model limited space — have
to model what to do if an entity shows up to a queue that’s
already full

Usually watch the length of a queue, waiting time in it

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Pieces of a Simulation Model (cont’d.)

• Statistical accumulators

Variables that “watch” what’s happening

Depend on output performance measures desired

“Passive” in model — don’t participate, just watch

Many are automatic in Arena, but some you may have to
set up and maintain during the simulation

At end of simulation, used to compute final output
performance measures

Pieces of a Simulation Model (cont’d.)

• Statistical accumulators for the simple

processing system

Number of parts produced so far

Total of the waiting times spent in queue so far

No. of parts that have gone through the queue

Max time in queue we’ve seen so far

Total of times spent in system

Max time in system we’ve seen so far

Area so far under queue-length curve Q(t)

Max of Q(t) so far

Area so far under server-busy curve B(t)

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Simulation Dynamics:
The Event-Scheduling “World View”
• Identify characteristic events
• Decide on logic for each type of event to

Effect state changes for each event type

Observe statistics

Update times of future events (maybe of this type, other
types)
• Keep a simulation clock, future event calendar
• Jump from one event to the next, process,
observe statistics, update event calendar
• Must specify an appropriate stopping rule
• Usually done with general-purpose programming
language (C, FORTRAN, etc.)

Events for the

Simple Processing System
• Arrival of a new part to the system

Update time-persistent statistical accumulators (from last
event to now)
– Area under Q(t)
– Max of Q(t)
– Area under B(t)

“Mark” arriving part with current time (use later)

If machine is idle:
– Start processing (schedule departure), Make machine busy, Tally
waiting time in queue (0)

Else (machine is busy):
– Put part at end of queue, increase queue-length variable

Schedule the next arrival event

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Events for the

Simple Processing System (cont’d.)

• Departure (when a service is completed)

Increment number-produced stat accumulator

Compute & tally time in system (now - time of arrival)

Update time-persistent statistics (as in arrival event)

If queue is non-empty:
– Take first part out of queue, compute & tally its waiting time in
queue, begin service (schedule departure event)

Else (queue is empty):
– Make the machine idle (Note: there will be no departure event
scheduled on the future events calendar, which is as desired)

Events for the

Simple Processing System (cont’d.)

• The End

Update time-persistent statistics (to end of the simulation)

Compute final output performance measures using current
(= final) values of statistical accumulators
• After each event, the event calendar’s top record
is removed to see what time it is, what to do
• Also must initialize everything

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Some Additional Specifics for the

Simple Processing System
• Simulation clock variable (internal in Arena)
• Event calendar: list of event records:

[Entity No., Event Time, Event Type]

Keep ranked in increasing order on Event Time

Next event always in top record

Initially, schedule first Arrival, The End (Dep.?)
• State variables: describe current status

Server status B(t) = 1 for busy, 0 for idle

Number of customers in queue Q(t)

Times of arrival of each customer now in queue (a list of
random length)

Simulation by Hand
• Manually track state variables, statistical
accumulators
• Use “given” interarrival, service times
• Keep track of event calendar
• “Lurch” clock from one event to the next
• Will omit times in system, “max” computations
here (see text for complete details)

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Simulation by Hand:
Setup
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l t im e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s t s . in q u e u e

N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le t e d w a it in g w a it in g t im e s in q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
t im e s in q u e u e

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u t e s )
I n t e r a r r iv a l t im e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v ic e t im e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 0.00, Initialize
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l t im e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s t s . in q u e u e [1 , 0 .0 0 , A rr]
0 .0 0 0 0 < e m p ty > [– , 2 0 .0 0 , E nd]

N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le t e d w a it in g w a it in g t im e s in q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
t im e s in q u e u e
0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u t e s )
I n t e r a r r iv a l t im e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v ic e t im e s 2 . 9 0 , 1 . 7 6 , 3 . 3 9 , 4 . 5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 . 3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 . 3 6 , 2 . 3 7 , 5 . 3 8 , . . .

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Simulation by Hand:
t = 0.00, Arrival of Part 1
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l t im e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s t s . in q u e u e [2 , 1 .7 3 , A rr]
1 0 .0 0 1 0 < e m p ty > [1 , 2 .9 0 , D ep]
[– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le t e d w a it in g w a it in g t im e s in q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
t im e s in q u e u e
1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u t e s )
I n t e r a r r iv a l t im e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v ic e t im e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 1.73, Arrival of Part 2
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l t im e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s ts . in q u e u e [1 , 2 .9 0 , D ep]
2 1 1 .7 3 1 1 (1 .7 3 ) [3 , 3 .0 8 , A rr]
[– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le te d w a itin g w a i t i n g t i m e s in q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
t im e s i n q u e u e
1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 .7 3

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u te s )
I n te ra rr iv a l tim e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v ic e t i m e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Simulation by Hand:
t = 2.90, Departure of Part 1
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l t im e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s ts . in q u e u e [3 , 3 .0 8 , A rr]
2 2 .9 0 1 0 < e m p ty > [2 , 4 .6 6 , D ep]
[– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le te d w a itin g w a i t i n g t i m e s in q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
t im e s i n q u e u e
2 1 .1 7 1 .1 7 2 .9 0

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u te s )
I n te ra rr iv a l tim e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v ic e t i m e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 3.08, Arrival of Part 3
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l t im e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s ts . in q u e u e [4 , 3 .7 9 , A rr]
3 2 3 .0 8 1 1 (3 .0 8 ) [2 , 4 .6 6 , D ep]
[– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le te d w a itin g w a i t i n g t i m e s in q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
t im e s i n q u e u e
2 1 .1 7 1 .1 7 3 .0 8

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u te s )
I n te ra rr iv a l tim e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v ic e t i m e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Simulation by Hand:
t = 3.79, Arrival of Part 4
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l t im e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s ts . in q u e u e [5 , 4 .4 1 , A rr]
4 3 2 3 .7 9 1 2 (3 .7 9 , 3 .0 8 ) [2 , 4 .6 6 , D ep]
[– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le te d w a itin g w a it in g t im e s in q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
t im e s in q u e u e
2 1 .1 7 1 .8 8 3 .7 9

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u te s )
I n te ra rr iv a l tim e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v ic e t im e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 4.41, Arrival of Part 5
S y s te m C lo c k B ( t) Q (t) A r r iv a l tim e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s ts . in q u e u e [2 , 4 .6 6 , D ep]
5 4 3 2 4 .4 1 1 3 (4 .4 1 , 3 .7 9 , 3 .0 8 ) [6 , 1 8 .6 9 , A rr]
[– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le te d w a itin g w a itin g t im e s in q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
t im e s in q u e u e
2 1 .1 7 3 .1 2 4 .4 1

4
3
Q ( t) g r a p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B ( t) g r a p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u t e s )
I n t e r a r r iv a l tim e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 . 7 1 , 0 . 6 2 , 1 4 . 2 8 , 0 . 7 0 , 1 5 . 5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 . 0 0 , .. .
S e r v ic e t im e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 . 3 9 , 4 . 5 2 , 4 . 4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 . 3 7 , 5 . 3 8 , .. .

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Simulation by Hand:
t = 4.66, Departure of Part 2
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l tim e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s t s . in q u e u e [3 , 8 .0 5 , Dep]
5 4 3 4 .6 6 1 2 ( 4 .4 1 , 3 .7 9 ) [6 , 1 8 .6 9 , A rr]
[– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le t e d w a it in g w a itin g tim e s in q u e u e Q ( t) B (t)
tim e s in q u e u e
3 2 .7 5 3 .8 7 4 .6 6

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u te s )
In t e r a r r iv a l tim e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e rv ic e tim e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 8.05, Departure of Part 3
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l tim e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s t s . in q u e u e [4 , 1 2 .5 7 , Dep]
5 4 8 .0 5 1 1 ( 4 .4 1 ) [6 , 1 8 .6 9 , A rr]
[– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le t e d w a it in g w a itin g tim e s in q u e u e Q ( t) B (t)
tim e s in q u e u e
4 7 .0 1 1 0 .6 5 8 .0 5

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u te s )
In t e r a r r iv a l tim e s 1 . 7 3 , 1 . 3 5 , 0 . 7 1 , 0 . 6 2 , 1 4 . 2 8 , 0 . 7 0 , 1 5 . 5 2 , 3 . 1 5 , 1 . 7 6 , 1 . 0 0 , . ..
S e r v ic e tim e s 2 . 9 0 , 1 . 7 6 , 3 . 3 9 , 4 . 5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 . 0 7 , 3 . 3 6 , 2 . 3 7 , 5 .3 8 , .. .

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Simulation by Hand:
t = 12.57, Departure of Part 4
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l t i m e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s t s . in q u e u e [5 , 1 7 .0 3 , Dep]
5 1 2 .5 7 1 0 () [6 , 1 8 .6 9 , A rr]
[– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le t e d w a it in g w a itin g tim e s in q u e u e Q ( t) B (t)
tim e s in q u e u e
5 1 5 .1 7 1 5 .1 7 1 2 .5 7

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u t e s )
I n t e r a r r iv a l t i m e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e rv ic e tim e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 17.03, Departure of Part 5
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r i v a l t im e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s ts . in q u e u e [6 , 1 8 .6 9 , A rr]
1 7 .0 3 0 0 () [– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]

N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le te d w a itin g w a it in g t i m e s i n q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
tim e s in q u e u e
5 1 5 .1 7 1 5 .1 7 1 7 .0 3

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u te s )
I n t e r a r r iv a l t im e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v i c e t im e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Simulation by Hand:
t = 18.69, Arrival of Part 6
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l t im e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s ts . in q u e u e [7 , 1 9 .3 9 , A rr]
6 1 8 .6 9 1 0 () [– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
[6 , 2 3 .0 5 , D ep]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le te d w a it in g w a it in g t im e s in q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
tim e s in q u e u e
6 1 5 .1 7 1 5 .1 7 1 7 .0 3

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M in u t e s )
In te r a r riv a l tim e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v ic e t im e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

Simulation by Hand:
t = 19.39, Arrival of Part 7
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A rriv a l tim e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s ts . in q u e u e [– , 2 0 .0 0 , End]
7 6 1 9 .3 9 1 1 (1 9 .3 9 ) [6 , 2 3 .0 5 , D ep]
[8 , 3 4 .9 1 , A rr]
N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p le te d w a itin g w a itin g tim e s in q u e u e Q (t) B (t)
tim e s in q u e u e
6 1 5 .1 7 1 5 .1 7 1 7 .7 3

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g r a p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e (M in u te s )
In te r a rriv a l tim e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v ic e tim e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Simulation by Hand:
t = 20.00, The End
S y s te m C lo c k B (t) Q (t) A r r iv a l t im e s o f E v e n t c a le n d a r
c u s t s . in q u e u e [6 , 2 3 .0 5 , D ep]
7 6 2 0 .0 0 1 1 ( 1 9 .3 9 ) [8 , 3 4 .9 1 , A rr]

N um ber of T o ta l o f A re a u n d e r A re a u n d e r
c o m p l e t e d w a it in g w a i t in g t i m e s in q u e u e Q ( t) B (t)
t im e s in q u e u e
6 1 5 .1 7 1 5 .7 8 1 8 .3 4

4
3
Q (t) g ra p h 2
1
0
0 5 10 15 20
2
B (t) g ra p h 1
0
0 5 10 15 20

T im e ( M i n u t e s )
I n t e r a r r iv a l t im e s 1 .7 3 , 1 .3 5 , 0 .7 1 , 0 .6 2 , 1 4 .2 8 , 0 .7 0 , 1 5 .5 2 , 3 .1 5 , 1 .7 6 , 1 .0 0 , ...
S e r v i c e t im e s 2 .9 0 , 1 .7 6 , 3 .3 9 , 4 .5 2 , 4 .4 6 , 4 .3 6 , 2 .0 7 , 3 .3 6 , 2 .3 7 , 5 .3 8 , ...

Simulation by Hand:
Finishing Up
• Average waiting time in queue:
Total of times in queue 15 . 17
= = 2 . 53 minutes per part
No. of times in queue 6
• Time-average number in queue:
Area under Q ( t ) curve 15 . 78
= = 0 . 79 part
Final clock value 20
• Utilization of drill press:
Area under B ( t ) curve 18 . 34
= = 0 . 92 (dimension less)
Final clock value 20

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Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Complete Record of the Hand

Simulation

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Event-Scheduling Logic via

Programming
• Clearly well suited to standard programming
language
• Often use “utility” libraries for:

List processing

Random-number generation

Random-variate generation

Statistics collection

Event-list and clock management

Summary and output
• Main program ties it together, executes events in
order

Simulation Dynamics: The Process-

Interaction World View
• Identify characteristic entities in the system
• Multiple copies of entities co-exist, interact,
compete
• “Code” is non-procedural
• Tell a “story” about what happens to a “typical”
entity
• May have many types of entities, “fake” entities
for things like machine breakdowns
• Usually requires special simulation software

Underneath, still executed as event-scheduling
• The view normally taken by Arena

Arena translates your model description into a program in
the SIMAN simulation language for execution

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Randomness in Simulation
• The above was just one “replication” — a sample
of size one (not worth much)
• Made a total of five replications:

Note
substantial
variability
across
replications

• Confidence intervals for expected values:

In general, X ± t n − 1,1 − α / 2 s / n

For expected total production, 3 . 80 ± ( 2 . 776 )( 1 . 64 / 5)
3 . 80 ± 2 . 04

Comparing Alternatives
• Usually, simulation is used for more than just a
single model “configuration”
• Often want to compare alternatives, select or
search for the best (via some criterion)
• Simple processing system: What would happen
if the arrival rate were to double?

Cut interarrival times in half

Rerun the model for double-time arrivals

Make five replications

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 Chapter 2 modeling And Simulation with Arena

Results: Original vs. Double-Time

Arrivals
• Original – circles
• Double-time – triangles
• Replication 1 – filled in
• Replications 2-5 – hollow
• Note variability
• Danger of making
decisions based on one
(first) replication
• Hard to see if there are
really differences
• Need: Statistical analysis
of simulation output data

Overview of a Simulation Study

• Understand the system
• Be clear about the goals
• Formulate the model representation
• Translate into modeling software
• Verify “program”
• Validate model
• Design experiments
• Make runs
• Analyze, get insight, document results

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