NCP 26 For PGPCM of NICMAR
NCP 26 For PGPCM of NICMAR
NCP 26 For PGPCM of NICMAR
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SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
PERT analysis
Project completion (event) time:
Governed by Longest (Critical) path
Normal probability distribution
Average Expected project duration
Te = EOT of the last event
Variance & standard deviation of project duration
Var
proj
= var along Longest (Critical) Path
proj proj
var = o
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
PERT analysis
Probability calculations:
Normal value
z = (Ts Te)/
proj
Area under cumulative normal distribution
curve gives the probability of completing the
project on or before the target time Ts
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Activity Preceding
activity
to
(weeks)
tm
(weeks)
tp
(weeks)
A - 2 3 5
B - 3 5 7
C - 6 7 9
D A 5 7 9
E A 3 4 7
F B 1 2 3
G C 7 10 13
H D 3 5 8
K B,G 5 8 9
L B,G 2 4 6
M H 4 6 8
N E,F,K 1 3 4
P M,N 3 6 8
Q L 8 9 10
PERT Problem
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Determine the critical path & the expected
project duration
What is the probability of completing the
project within 30 weeks?
What is the probability of completing the
project within 35 weeks?
What is the project duration for 90 % certainty
of on-time project completion?
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Activity Preceding
activity
to tm tp te
A - 2 3 5 3.17 0.25
B - 3 5 7 5 0.44
C - 6 7 9 7.16 0.25
D A 5 7 9 7 0.44
E A 3 4 7 4.33 0.44
F B 1 2 3 2 0.11
G C 7 10 13 10 1
H D 3 5 8 5.16 0.69
K B,G 5 8 9 7.67 0.44
L B,G 2 4 6 4 0.44
M H 4 6 8 6 0.44
N E,F,K 1 3 4 2.83 0.25
P M,N 3 6 8 5.83 0.69
Q L 8 9 10 9 0.11
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
10
20
30
50
80
40
70
60
100
90
110
0
0
3.17
A
3.17
B
5
C
7.16
G
10
D
7
H
5.16
E
4.33
F
2
L
4
Q
9
P
5.83
M
6
N
2.83
10.17
15.33
5
7.16
17.16
24.83
27.67
33.50
21.16
33.50
24.50
27.67
24.83
17.16
7.16
21.67
16.50
9.50
17.16
K
7.67
i j
Act
te
EOT EOT
LOT LOT
Average expected project duration, Te = 33.50
CP: 10-40-60-80-100-110 (C-G-K-N-P)
Var
proj
= 2.63 ;
proj
= 1.62
PERT Network
Probability of completing project in 30 weeks
Te = 33.50 weeks;
proj
= 1.62; Ts=30 weeks
z = (Ts Te)/
proj
Z = (30-33.50)/1.62 = -2.16
Corresponding, p = 0.0154 = 1.54%
Probability of completing project in 35 weeks
Te = 33.50 weeks;
proj
= 1.62; Ts=35 weeks
z = (Ts Te)/
proj
Z = (35-33.50)/1.62 = 0.93
Corresponding, p = 0.8238 = 82.38%
Duration for 90% certainty
For, p = 0.90 => Z = 1.28
z = (Ts Te)/
proj
1.28 = (Ts 33.50)/ 1.62
Ts = 35.57 weeks
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Project costs:
Direct costs
Attributed to a particular activity
Indirect costs
Cannot be attributed to an activity
Project overheads
Penalties / incentives
Time-cost trade-off
Determining the minimum possible total cost for a particular
project duration.
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Time- cost trade-off:
Determining the minimum possible total cost for a
particular project duration.
Compression:
Reducing project duration
Compressing critical activities
Increase in Direct cost
Reduction in Indirect cost
Crashing:
Ultimate stage of compression
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Time - Cost trade-off:
Project duration
Indirect Cost
Total Cost
Minimum
Total Cost
Optimum PD
Direct Cost
Cost
Normal PD
Minimum PD
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Steps in compression:
Determine activity compression potential &
cost slope
Draw network for normal durations
List all paths, with their durations
Identify CP
Compress activities along CP (s)
Continue till at least one CP is fully
compressed (crashed)
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Activity Preceding
activity
NT
(weeks)
CT
(weeks)
NC
(x Rs 1000)
CC
(x Rs 1000)
A - 6 4 64 76
B - 4 3 30 33
C A 9 5 54 74
D A 3 2 28 34
E B 7 4 70 91
F B 5 4 82 92
G C 4 4 47 47
H D,E 6 5 39 45
K F 3 2 27 30
L G 9 6 86 98
M F,H 5 3 55 65
N K 2 1 27 29
Indirect cost is Rs. 10000 per week
Numerical problem:
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Activity NT CT NC CC Compression
potential
Cost
slope
A 6 4 64 76 2 6
B 4 3 30 33 1 3
C 9 5 54 74 4 5
D 3 2 28 34 1 6
E 7 4 70 91 3 7
F 5 4 82 92 1 10
G 4 4 47 47 0 0
H 6 5 39 45 1 6
K 3 2 27 30 1 3
L 9 6 86 98 3 4
M 5 3 55 65 2 5
N 2 1 27 29 1 2
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
A(6)
START FINISH
E(7)
D(3)
C(9)
K(3)
H(6)
G(4)
N(2)
M(5)
L(9)
B(4)
F(5)
Paths
Duration along path @ each stage
0 1 2 3 4
A-C-G-L 28*
A-D-H-M 20
B-E-H-M 22
B-F-M 14
B-F-K-N 14
A-O-N Network
(normal durations)
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Paths
Duration along path @ each stage
0 1 2 3 4
5
A-C-G-L 28* 25* 22* 21* 20* 19
A-D-H-M 20 20 20 20 18 16
B-E-H-M 22 22 22* 21* 20* 19
B-F-M 14 14 14 13 12 11
B-F-K-N 14 14 14 13 13 13
A(6)
START FINISH
E(7)
D(3)
C(9)
K(3)
H(6)
G(4)
N(2)
M(5)
L(9)
B(4)
F(5)
A-O-N Network
(normal durations)
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Compression table:
Stage Act CS Dur
of
comp
PD Incre
ase
in DC
DC IC Penal
ty
TC
0 - - - 28 - 609 280 889
1 L 4 3 25 12 621 250 871
2 C 5 3 22 15 636 220 856
3 C 5
1
21
08
644
210
854
B 3
4 A 6
1
20
11
655
200
855
M 5
5 A 6
1
19
11
666
190
856
M 5
NPD
Min
PD
OPD
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
A(6)
START FINISH
E(7)
D(3)
C(5)
K(3)
H(6)
G(4)
N(2)
M(5)
L(6)
B(3)
F(5)
A(4)
START FINISH
E(7)
D(3)
C(5)
K(3)
H(6)
G(4)
N(2)
M(3)
L(6)
B(3)
F(5)
A-O-N Network
(Optimum PD)
A-O-N Network
(Minimum PD)
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Resources scheduling:
Scheduling the work for effective utilization of
resources
Resources allocation
Assigning the resources for each activity
Resources aggregation
Daily resource requirement
Resources smoothing
Time constrained scheduling
Resources leveling
Resource constrained scheduling
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Resource utilization factor (RUF)/ Effective
force ratio (EFR):
RUF or EFR =
Idle Force ratio (IFR) = 1- EFR
Higher the RUF, more effective the resource
utilization
Total resource-days required
Peak resource requirement x project duration
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Activities, their durations & resource requirements are
given below. Schedule the work for the most effective
resource utilization.
Activity Preceding activity Duration (days) Resource rate
A - 6 5
B - 4 4
C A 9 6
D A 3 5
E B 7 4
F B 5 2
G C 4 6
H D,E 6 3
K F 3 2
L G 9 5
M F,H 5 7
N K 2 6
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Days 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
DRR (ESS)
9 9 9 9 11 11 17 17 17 12 12 11 15 15 9 9 9 13 13 12 12 12 5 5 5 5 5 5 293
A/5
B/4
C/6
D/5
E/4
F/2
G/6
H/3
K/2
N/6
M/7
L/5
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Days 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
DRR (ESS)
9 9 9 9 11 11 17 17 17 12 12 11 15 15 9 9 9 13 13 12 12 12 5 5 5 5 5 5 293
DRR (LSS)
5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 9 11 10 10 10 10 14 14 14 18 18 293
A/5
B/4
C/6
D/5
E/4
F/2
G/6
H/3
K/2
N/6
M/7
L/5
ESS
A/5
B/4
C/6
D/5
E/4
F/2
G/6
H/3
K/2
N/6
M/7
L/5
LSS
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Days 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
DRR (ESS)
9 9 9 9 11 11 17 17 17 12 12 11 15 15 9 9 9 13 13 12 12 12 5 5 5 5 5 5 293
DRR (Trial 1)
9 9 9 9 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 17 17 9 9 9 9 9 8 12 12 12 12 12 5 5 5 293
A/5
B/4
C/6
D/5
E/4
F/2
G/6
H/3
K/2
N/6
M/7
L/5
ESS
A/5
B/4
C/6
D/5
E/4
F/2
G/6
H/3
K/2
N/6
M/7
L/5
TRIAL1
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Days 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
DRR (ESS)
9 9 9 9 11 11 17 17 17 12 12 11 15 15 9 9 9 13 13 12 12 12 5 5 5 5 5 5 293
DRR (Trial 2)
9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 9 9 11 11 10 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 5 293
A/5
B/4
C/6
D/5
E/4
F/2
G/6
H/3
K/2
N/6
M/7
L/5
ESS
A/5
B/4
C/6
D/5
E/4
F/2
G/6
H/3
K/2
N/6
M/7
L/5
TRIAL 2
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Time chainage diagram:
Suitable for repetitive type of projects
Same activities are sequentially repeated at
regular interval/ stage/ location
Resource work continuity
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Sample problem:
On a 12 km long road project, following four activities are
repeated, sequentially. Prepare time-chainage schedule.
Activity Progress
rate
(km/day)
Duration
for 12 km
Buffer Start
buffer
End
buffer
Start
time
Finish
time
Subgrade 1.0 12 - - - 0 12
Sub-base 0.5 24 2 2 - 2 26
Base 0.5 24 2 2 - 4 28
Wearing
course
1.5 8 2 - 2 22 30
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Sub-grade
Sub-base
Base
Wearing
Time-chainage Diagram
Time (days)
C
h
a
i
n
a
g
e
(
k
m
)
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Project Monitoring & Control:
Monitoring:
Establishing progress of the project
Periodic Review of current status
Control:
Comparing the planned versus actual progress
Identifying deviations & reasons for such deviations
Analyzing the effect on time, cost & performance
parameters of the project
Corrective actions
Updating plans
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Base Plan
-schedule
-budget
-scope
Deviations
-schedule
-budget
-scope
Actual status
-schedule
-budget
-scope
Impact on Schedule, Budget & Scope
Corrective Actions
Revised Plan
-schedule
-budget
-scope
Raplace
Base plan
Project Control
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Project time-cost control:
S- curve
Project budget plan
Actual cost of work performed
Budgeted cost of work performed
Earned value
Planned cost allocated to the completed work
EV = BCWP
EV = [Budgeted cost of activity x % activity completion]
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Project performance status:
Schedule variance
SV = BCWP - BCWS
Cost variance
CV = BCWP - ACWP
Schedule performance index
SPI = BCWP/ BCWS
Cost performance index
CPI = BCWP/ ACWP
Project performance index = SPI x CPI
Estimated cost to project completion
ECPC = BCPC/ CPI
Estimated time to project completion
ETPC = STPC/ SPI
Sample problem:
Task Duration
(weeks)
Preceding
task
Budgeted
cost
(Rs in
lacs)
Status by end of 5
th
week
Actual
expendit
ure
(Rs in
lacs)
% complete
A 3 - 6 100 8
B 5 A 20 40 6
C 3 A 30 33.33 12
D 4 A 24 50 9
E 2 A 16 50 7
F 4 C 16 0 0
G 3 D,E 9 0 0
H 2 B,F,G 18 0 0
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Task Duration
(weeks)
Weightage
s
Budgeted
cost
(Rs in
lacs)
Status by end of 5
th
week
Actual
expendit
ure
(Rs in
lacs)
%
complete
% project
Progress
A 3 11.54 6 100 11.54 8
B 5 19.24 20 40 7.70 6
C 3 11.54 30 33.33 3.85 12
D 4 15.38 24 50 7.70 9
E 2 7.69 16 50 3.85 7
F 4 15.38 16 0 0 0
G 3 11.54 9 0 0 0
H 2 7.69 18 0 0 0
100 34.64
SANJAY BHOYAR
NICMAR, PUNE
Weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Weekly progress (%)
3.85 3.85 3.85 15.38 15.38 11.54 11.54 11.54 7.70 7.70 3.85 3.85
% progress (ESS)
3.85 7.70 11.54 26.92 42.3 53.85 65.38 76.92 84.62 92.31 96.15 100
Weekly cost (ESS)
2 2 2 28 28 20 14 11 7 7 9 9
Cumulative cost (ESS)
2 4 6 34 62 82 96 107 114 121 130 139
ESS
A/2
B/4
C/10
D/6
E/8
F/4
G/3
H/9
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Status of progress: At end of 5
th
week
Task Durat
ion
Budgeted
cost
(BC)
Sched
uled
Start
Sched
uled
Finish
% completion Cost Earned
value
(BCWP)
Sched
uled
(WS)
Actual
(WP)
Schedul
ed
(BCWS)
Actual
(ACWP)
A 3 6 0 3 100 100 6 8 6
B 5 20 3 8 40 40 8 6 8
C 3 30 3 6 66.67 33.33 20 12 10
D 4 24 3 7 50 50 12 9 12
E 2 16 3 5 100 50 16 7 8
F 4 16 6 10 0 0 0 0 0
G 3 9 7 10 0 0 0 0 0
H 2 18 10 12 0 0 0 0 0
62 42 44
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Review date: 5 weeks from start
WS = 42.3 %
WP = 34.64 %
BCWS = 62
ACWP = 42
BCWP = 44 = EARNED VALUE
CV = BCWP ACWP = 44 42 = +2 (cost savings)
SV = BCWP BCWS = 44 62 = -18 (behind schedule)
CPI = BCWP/ACWP = 44/42 = 1.05
SPI = BCWP/BCWS = 44/62 = 0.71
Project performance index = SPI x CPI = 0.7455
ECPC = BCPC / CPI = 139/1.05 = 132.68 lacs
ETPC = STPC / SPI = 12/0.71 = 16.91 weeks
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Table below gives the budgeted monthly cashflow
requirement for a construction project. At end of
Oct 06, the actual project expenditure is Rs 114
lakhs & the progress is 50%
Draw s curve, & calculate project performance indices.
Estimate the delay in project completion.
Month May
06
Jun
06
Jul 06 Aug
06
Sep 06 Oct
06
Nov 06 Dec
06
Jan
07
Feb
07
Mar
07
Cash-
flow
8.5 11.5 13.5 15.5 30.5 27.0 22.5 20.0 20.0 12.5 2.5
Cumm
CF
8.5 20 33.5 49 79.5 106.5 129 149 169 181.5 184
Numerical Problem
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
S curve
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
M
a
y
,
0
6
j
u
n
,
0
6
j
u
l
,
0
6
a
u
g
,
0
6
s
e
p
,
0
6
o
c
t
,
0
6
n
o
v
,
0
6
d
e
c
,
0
6
j
a
n
,
0
6
f
e
b
,
0
6
m
a
r
,
0
6
time
c
o
s
t
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Review date: Oct 06
ACWP = 114
WS = (6/11)x 100 = 54.54 %
WP = 50 %
BCWP = (79.5+106.5) / 2 = 93 = EARNED VALUE
BCWS = 106.5
CV = BCWP ACWP = -21
SV = BCWP BCWS = -13.5
CPI = BCWP/ACWP = 0.8158
SPI = BCWP/BCWS = 0.8732
ECPC = BCPC / CPI = 225.55
ETPC = STPC / SPI = 12.6 months
Delay in project completion = ETPC STPC = 1.6
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
SANJAY BHOYAR NICMAR, PUNE
Contact NICMAR:
www.nicmar.ac.in
020-27291342
Prof. Sanjay Bhoyar
sanbhoyar@nicmar.ac.in
9552546301; 020-66859116