Introduction To Modeling and Simulation

Lecture 1
Introduction 1

Goals Of This Course

Introduce Modeling Introduce Simulation Develop an Appreciation for the Need for Simulation Develop Facility in Simulation Model Building Learn by Doing--Lots of Case Studies
Introduction 2

What Is A Model ?

A Representation of an object, a system, or an idea in some form other than that of the entity itself. (Shannon)
Introduction 3

Types of Models:
Physical (Scale models, prototype plants,) Mathematical (Analytical queueing models, linear programs, simulation)

Introduction

What is Simulation?
A Simulation of a system is the operation of a model, which is a representation of that system. The model is amenable to manipulation which would be impossible, too expensive, or too impractical to perform on the system which it portrays. The operation of the model can be studied, and, from this, properties concerning the behavior of the actual system can be inferred.
Introduction 5

Applications:
Designing and analyzing manufacturing systems Evaluating H/W and S/W requirements for a computer system Evaluating a new military weapons system or tactics Determining ordering policies for an inventory system Designing communications systems and message protocols for them
Introduction 6

Applications:(continued)
Designing and operating transportation facilities such as freeways, airports, subways, or ports Evaluating designs for service organizations such as hospitals, post offices, or fast-food restaurants Analyzing financial or economic systems
Introduction 7

Steps In Simulation and Model Building

1. Define an achievable goal 2. Put together a complete mix of skills on the team 3. Involve the end-user 4. Choose the appropriate simulation tools 5. Model the appropriate level(s) of detail 6. Start early to collect the necessary input data
Introduction 8

Why Teach with Simulations?

1.Deep Learning
Instructional simulations have the potential to engage students in "deep learning" that empowers understanding as opposed to "surface learning" that requires only memorization. A good summary of how deep learning contrasts with surface learning is given at the Engineering Subject Centre

Deep learning means student can learn scientific methods including

the importance of model building. Experiments and simulations are the way scientists do their work. Using instructional simulations gives students concrete formats of what it means to think like a scientist and do scientific work. the relationships among variables in a model or models. Simulation allows students to change parameter values and see what happens. Students develop a feel for what variables are important and the significance of magnitude changes in parameters.

 data issues, probability and sampling theory. Simulations help students understand probability and sampling theory. Instructional simulations have proven their worth many times over in the statistics based fields. The ability to match simulation results with an analytically derived conclusion is especially valuable in beginning classes, where students often struggle with sampling theory. Given the utility of data simulation, it is not surprising that SERC has an existing module on teaching with data simulation. how to use a model to predict outcomes. Simulations help students understand that scientific knowledge rests on the foundation of testable hypotheses.

Learn to reflect on and extend knowledge by:

actively engaging in student-student or instructorstudent conversations needed to conduct a simulation. Instructional simulations by their very nature cannot be passive learning. Students are active participants in selecting parameter values, anticipating outcomes, and formulating new questions to ask. transferring knowledge to new problems and situations. A well done simulation is constructed to include an extension to a new problem or new set of parameters that requires students to extend what they have learned in an earlier context.

 understanding and refining their own thought processes. A well done simulation includes a strong reflection summary that requires students to think about how and why they behaved as they did during the simulation. seeing social processes and social interactions in action. This is one of the most significant outcomes of simulation in social science disciplines such as sociology and political science.

How to Teach with Simulations?

Instructor Preparation is Crucial The good news is that instructional simulations can be very effective in stimulating student understanding. The bad news is that many simulations require intensive pre-simulation lesson preparation. Lesson preparation varies with the type and complexity of the simulation

Active Student Participation is Crucial

Students learn through instructional simulations when they are actively engaged. Students should predict and explain the outcome they expect the simulation to generate. Every effort should be made to make it difficult for students to become passive during the simulation. Students must submit timely input and not rely on classmates to play for them. Instructors should anticipate ways the simulation can go wrong and include this in their pre-simulation discussion with the class.

Post-Simulation Discussion is Crucial

Post-simulation discussion with students leads to deeper learning. The instructor should: 1. Provide sufficient time for students to reflect on and discuss what they learned from the simulation 2. Integrate the course goals into the post-simulation discussion 3. Ask students explicitly asked how the simulation helped them understand the course goals or how it may have made the goals more confusing.

Extremely significant or important=crucial

Steps In Simulation and Model Building(contd)

7. Provide adequate and on-going documentation 8. Develop a plan for adequate model verification (Did we get the right answers ?) 9. Develop a plan for model validation (Did we ask the right questions ?) 10. Develop a plan for statistical output analysis
Introduction 17

Define An Achievable Goal

To model the is NOT a goal!
To model thein order to select/determine feasibility/is a goal. Goal selection is not cast in concrete

Goals change with increasing insight

Introduction 18

Put together a complete mix of skills on the team

We Need:
-Knowledge of the system under investigation

-System analyst skills (model formulation)

-Model building skills (model Programming)

-Data collection skills

-Statistical skills (input data representation)
Introduction 19

Put together a complete mix of skills on the team(continued)

We Need:
-More statistical skills (output data analysis) -Even more statistical skills (design of experiments) -Management skills (to get everyone pulling in the same direction)
Introduction 20

INVOLVE THE END USER

-Modeling is a selling job!
-Does anyone believe the results? -Will anyone put the results into action? -The End-user (your customer) can (and must) do all of the above BUT, first he must be convinced! -He must believe it is HIS Model!
Introduction 21

Choose The Appropriate Simulation Tools

Assuming Simulation is the appropriate means, three alternatives exist: 1. Build Model in a General Purpose Language
2. 3. Build Model in a General Simulation Language Use a Special Purpose Simulation Package
Introduction 22

MODELLING W/ GENERAL PURPOSE LANGUAGES

Advantages:
Little or no additional software cost Universally available (portable) No additional training (Everybody knows(language X) ! )

Disadvantages:
Every model starts from scratch Very little reusable code Long development cycle for each model Difficult verification phase
Introduction 23

GEN. PURPOSE LANGUAGES USED FOR SIMULATION

FORTRAN
Probably more models than any other language.

PASCAL
Not as universal as FORTRAN

MODULA
Many improvements over PASCAL

ADA
Department of Defense attempt at standardization

C, C++
Object-oriented programming language

Introduction

24

MODELING W/ GENERAL SIMULATION LANGUAGES

Advantages:
Standardized features often needed in modeling Shorter development cycle for each model Much assistance in model verification Very readable code

Disadvantages:
Higher software cost (up-front) Additional training required Limited portability
Introduction 25

 GPSS

GENERAL PURPOSE SIMULATION LANGUAGES

Block-structured Language Interpretive Execution FORTRAN-based (Help blocks) World-view: Transactions/Facilities
English-like Problem Description Language Compiled Programs Complete language (no other underlying language) World-view: Processes/ Resources/ Continuous

SIMSCRIPT II.5

Introduction

26

GEN. PURPOSE SIMULATION LANGUAGES (continued)

MODSIM III
Modern Object-Oriented Language Modularity Compiled Programs Based on Modula2 (but compiles into C) World-view: Processes

SIMULA
ALGOL-based Problem Description Language Compiled Programs World-view: Processes
Introduction 27

GEN. PURPOSE SIMULATION LANGUAGES (continued)

SLAM
Block-structured Language Interpretive Execution FORTRAN-based (and extended) World-view: Network / event / continuous

CSIM
process-oriented language C-based (C++ based) World-view: Processes
Introduction 28

MODELING W/ SPECIALPURPOSE SIMUL. PACKAGES

Advantages
Very quick development of complex models Short learning cycle No programming--minimal errors in usage

Disadvantages
High cost of software Limited scope of applicability Limited flexibility (may not fit your specific application)

Introduction

29

SPECIAL PURPOSE PACKAGES USED FOR SIMUL.

NETWORK II.5
Simulator for computer systems

OPNET
Simulator for communication networks, including wireless networks

COMNET III
Simulator for communications networks

SIMFACTORY
Simulator for manufacturing operations

Introduction

30

THE REAL COST OF SIMULATION

Many people think of the cost of a simulation only in terms of the software package price. There are actually at least three components to the cost of simulation: 1. Purchase price of the software 2. Programmer / Analyst time 3. Timeliness of Results
Introduction 31

TERMINOLOGY
System
A group of objects that are joined together in some regular interaction or interdependence toward the accomplishment of some purpose. Entity An object of interest in the system. E.g., customers at a bank

Introduction

32

TERMINOLOGY (continued)
Attribute
a property of an entity E.g., checking account balance

Activity
Represents a time period of specified length. Collection of operations that transform the state of an entity E.g., making bank deposits

Introduction

33

TERMINOLOGY (continued)
Event:
change in the system state. E.g., arrival; beginning of a new execution; departure

State Variables
Define the state of the system Can restart simulation from state variables E.g., length of the job queue.

Introduction

34

TERMINOLOGY (continued)
Process
Sequence of events ordered on time

Note:
the three concepts(event, process,and activity) give rise to three alternative ways of building discrete simulation models
Introduction 35

A GRAPHIC COMPARISON OF DISCRETE SIMUL. METHODOLOGIES

P1 E1 P2 E1

A1
E2 /E3 A1

A2
E4 A2 E2 E3 E4

Simulation Time
Introduction 36

EXAMPLES OF SYSTEMS AND COMPONENTS

System Entities Attributes Activities Events State Variables
# of busy tellers; # of customers waiting

Banking

Customers Checking account balance

Making deposits

Arrival; Departure

Note: State Variables may change continuously (continuous sys.) over time or they may change only at a discrete set of points (discrete sys.) in time.
Introduction 37

SIMULATION WORLDVIEWS
Pure Continuous Simulation
Pure Discrete Simulation
Event-oriented Activity-oriented Process-oriented

Combined Discrete / Continuous Simulation

Introduction 38

Examples Of Both Type Models

Continuous Time and Discrete Time Models: CPU scheduling model vs. number of students attending the class.

Introduction

39

Examples (continued)
Continuous State and Discrete State Models: Example: Time spent by students in a weekly class vs. Number of jobs in Q.

Introduction

40

Other Type Models

Deterministic and Probabilistic Models:
Output Input Input

Output

Static and Dynamic Models: CPU scheduling model vs. E = mc2

Introduction 41

Stochastic vs. Deterministic

System Deterministic
1 3 2

Model Deterministic

Stochastic
4
Introduction

Stochastic

42

MODEL THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL(S) OF DETAIL

Define the boundaries of the system to be modeled. Some characteristics of the environment (outside the boundaries) may need to be included in the model. Not all subsystems will require the same level of detail. Control the tendency to model in great detail those elements of the system which are well understood, while skimming over other, less well - understood sections.
Introduction 43

START EARLY TO COLLECT THE NECESSARY INPUT DATA

Data comes in two quantities: TOO MUCH!! TOO LITTLE!! With too much data, we need techniques for reducing it to a form usable in our model. With too little data, we need information which can be represented by statistical distributions.
Introduction 44

PROVIDE ADEQUATE AND ON-GOING DOCUMENTATION

In general, programmers hate to document.
(They love to program!) Documentation is always their lowest priority item. (Usually scheduled for just after the budget runs out!) They believe that only wimps read manuals. What can we do?
Use self-documenting languages Insist on built-in user instructions(help screens) Set (or insist on) standards for coding style
Introduction 45

DEVELOP PLAN FOR ADEQUATE MODEL VERIFICATION

Did we get the right answers? (No such thing!!) Simulation provides something that no other technique does: Step by step tracing of the model execution. This provides a very natural way of checking the internal consistency of the model.
Introduction 46

DEVELOP A PLAN FOR MODEL VALIDATION

VALIDATION: Doing the right thing Or Asking the right questions How do we know our model represents the system under investigation?
Compare to existing system? Deterministic Case?

Introduction

47

DEVELOP A PLAN FOR STATISTICAL OUTPUT ANALYSIS

How much is enough?
Long runs versus Replications Techniques for Analysis

Introduction

48