New Training Slides Forex Jalatama
New Training Slides Forex Jalatama
New Training Slides Forex Jalatama
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Products
Commodities
Stock Indices
EXCHANGE-TRADED DERIVATIVE
Two-Ways Trading
Two-way market environment opportunities arises in opening
a trading position (i.e. entering a new transaction) that
reflects market propensity/taking advantage of market price
movements.
Buy Long :Open Buy
Close Sell
Sell Short: Open Sell
Close Buy
Whats Gold?
Spot Market-Any market that deals in the
current price of a financial instrument
During economic crisis, what most likely will
happen?
Why? Hedging
A strategy to limiting or offsetting the
probability of lost from fluctuations in the
prices of commodities, currencies or securities
History of Gold
For thousands of years, gold has been valued
as a global currency, a commodity, an
investment and simply an object of beauty
Gold has attracted investors throughout the
centuries, protecting their wealth and
providing a 'safe haven' in troubled or
uncertain times
It offers investors insurance against extreme
movements in the value of other asset classes
Limited Supply
Intrinsic Value
A Currency
A Commodity
Safe Haven
More stable
Inflation Hedge
Of all the precious metals, gold is the most
popular as an investment
Maximise Profit
Risk
Tolerance
USD
Monetary
Policy
Short Term
Factors
Technical
Analysis
Fluctuating
Demand
Euro
Issues
Important
Margin Trading
Trading transaction by way of margin trading is a facility provided to you in
order to conduct a transaction whose value exceeds the paid-in capital.
Margin in gold trading serves as collateral that you pay to the futures
brokerage company as a security deposit, which serves to guarantee that
you are able to fulfil the payment obligation, thereby allowing you to
conduct transactions with the brokerage company.
Law No. 32 of 1997 on Commodity Futures Trading defines margin as a
given amount of money or securities that a customer must place in a
futures broker, futures broker in a member of a futures clearing, or a
member of a futures clearing in the futures clearing agency in order to
guarantee a futures contract transaction.
Margin Trading/Leverage
You are probably wondering how a small investor like yourself can trade
such large amounts of money. Think of your broker as a bank who
basically fronts you $100,000 to buy currencies and all he asks from you is
that you give him $1,000 as a good faith deposit, which he will hold for you
but not necessarily keep. Sounds too good to be true?
Well this is how trading using leverage works.
Typically the broker will require a minimum account size, also known as
account margin or initial margin. Once you have deposited your money
you will then be able to trade. The broker will also specify how much they
require per position (lot) traded.
For example, for every $1,000 you have, you can trade 1 lot of $100,000.
So if you have $5,000 they may allow you to trade up to $500,000 of Forex.
The minimum security (margin) for each lot will vary from broker to broker.
In the example above, the broker required a one percent margin. This
means that for every $100,000 traded, the broker wants $1,000 as a
deposit on the position.
How To Invest
Physical
Jewellery
Bullion
Coins
Non-Physical
Futures
ETFs
Disadvantages of Physical
Advantages of Futures/Spot
Technical Analysis
Chart to visualize price movement
Old saying, "History tends to repeat itself"?
By looking at historical price movements,
potential price movement can be determined
Bar Charts
A bar chart is a little more complex. It shows the opening and
closing prices, as well as the highs and lows
The horizontal hash on the left side of the bar is the opening
price, and the right-side horizontal hash is the closing price
Also called "OHLC" charts, because they indicate the Open,
the High, the Low, and the Close for that particular currency
Candlesticks Charts
The sexiest thing about a candlestick, is their body
The larger block (or body) in the middle indicates the range
between the opening and closing prices
If the block in the middle is filled or colored in, then the
currency closed lower than it opened (Bearish)
Mysterious Shadows
Upper shadows signify the session high. Lower shadows
signify the session low
If a candlestick has a long upper shadow and short lower
shadow, this means that buyers bid prices higher, but for one
reason or another, sellers came in and drove prices back down
to end the session back near its open price.
If a candlestick has a long lower shadow and short upper
shadow, this means that sellers forced price lower, but for
one reason or another, buyers came in and drove prices back
up to end the session back near its open price.
Marubozu
No shadows from the bodies
The high and low are the same as its open or close
The small real body (whether hollow or filled) shows little
movement from open to close, and the shadows indicate that
both buyers and sellers were fighting but nobody could gain
the upper hand.
If a spinning top forms during an uptrend, this usually means
there aren't many buyers left and a possible reversal in
direction could occur.
If a spinning top forms during a downtrend, this usually
means there aren't many sellers left and a possible reversal in
direction could occur.
Doji
Very small body that appear as a thin line
Doji candlesticks have the same open and close price or at
least their bodies are extremely short
Implies indecision or a struggle for turf positioning between
buyers and sellers
Neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control and the
result was essentially a draw
4 Types
Significance/ Application
When a Doji forms on your chart after a series of candlesticks
with long hollow bodies (White Marubozu-s), the Doji signals
that the buyers are becoming exhausted and weakening.
Sellers are licking their chops and are looking to come in and
drive the price back down.
Name
Spinning
Top
Doji
White
Marubozu
Black
Marubozu
Bullish
or
How does it look
Bearish
like?
?
Name
Hammer
Hanging
Man
Inverted
Hammer
Shooting
Star
Name
Bullish or
Bearish?
Bullish Engulfing
Bullish
Bearish Engulfing
Bearish
Tweezer Tops
Bearish
Tweezer Bottoms
Bullish
Name
Bullish or
Bearish?
Morning Star
Bullish
Evening Star
Bearish
Three White
Soldiers
Bullish
Bearish
Name
Bullish or
Bearish?
Three Inside Up
Bullish
Bearish
Resistance
The price ceiling that prevent price to rise further
When price increases, sellers more incline to sell, buyers more
reluctant to buy
Resistance level can be broken if bulls have won out over
bears
Once resistance breaks, a higher resistance level will be
established
Trend Lines
Trend lines are probably the most common form of technical analysis used
today. They are probably one of the most underutilized as well.
If drawn correctly, they can be as accurate as any other method.
Unfortunately, most traders dont draw them correctly or they try to make
the line fit the market instead of the other way around.
In their most basic form, an uptrend line is drawn along the bottom of
easily identifiable support areas (valleys). In a downtrend, the trend line is
drawn along the top of easily identifiable resistance areas (peaks).
Profitable Pattern
The Bounce
As the name suggests, one method of trading support and resistance
levels is right after the bounce
Instead of simply buying or selling right off the bat, wait for it to bounce
first before entering.
By doing this, you avoid those moments where price moves fast and break
through support and resistance levels.
The Break
The simplest way to play breakouts is to buy or sell whenever price passes
convincingly through a support or resistance zone. The key word here is
convincingly because we only want to enter when price passes through a
significant support or resistance level with ease.
Conservative Way
Hypothetical Speaking~~
You made a mistake and now, your account balance slowly
falling,
Do you...
Accept defeat, get the heck out, and liquidate your position?
Or
Hold on to your trade and hope price rises up again?
Fibonacci
Leonard Fibonacci was a famous Italian mathematician, and
discovered a simple series of numbers that created ratios
describing the natural proportions of things in the universe
The ratios arise from the following number series: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5,
8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144...
This series of numbers is derived by starting with 1 followed
by 2 and then adding 1 + 2 to get 3, the third number. Then,
adding 2 + 3 to get 5, and so on.
After the first few numbers in the sequence, if you measure
the ratio of any number to the succeeding higher number, you
get .618. For example, 34 divided by 55 equals .618.
If you measure the ratio between alternate numbers you get
.382. For example, 34 divided by 89 = 0.382
Cont-d
Cont-d
Fibonacci retracement levels are used by traders as potential
support and resistance areas
Since so many traders watch these same levels and place buy
and sell orders on them to enter trades or place stops, the
support and resistance levels tend to become a self-fulfilling
prophecy as everyone is using the same tool to predict the
price movements
Thats the reason Fibonacci ratios are called the Golden
Mean"
Formula- Fibo
Golden Rules
Support 3
Support 2
Support 1
Current Price
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
Resistance 3
1567.97
1577.60
1586.58
1596.05
1600.54
1608.41
1615.83
Chart Patterns
Aid to spot conditions where the market is ready to break out
Can also indicate whether the price will continue in its current
direction or reverse
Most common Chart Patterns :
Double Top and Double Bottom
Head and Shoulders and Inverse Head and Shoulders
Rising and Falling Wedges
Bullish and Bearish Rectangles
Bearish and Bullish Pennants
Triangles (Symmetrical, Ascending, and Descending)
Double Top
A double top is a reversal pattern that is formed after there is
an extended move up
The "tops" are peaks which are formed when the price fails to
break through resistance level
After hitting this level, the price bounces off slightly, but then
return back to test the resistance level again
If the price bounces off of that level again, then you have a
DOUBLE top!
Notice how the second top was not able to break the high of
the first top. This is a strong sign that a reversal is going to
occur because it is telling us that the buying pressure is just
about finished.
With the double top, we would place our entry order below
the neckline because we are anticipating a reversal of the
uptrend.
Occasionally, Triple Top might occur
Double Bottom
It is also a trend reversal formation, but this time we are
looking to go long instead of short.
These formations occur after extended downtrends when two
valleys or "bottoms" have been formed.
We can see that this is just like a head and shoulders pattern,
but it's flipped upside down. With this formation, we would
place a long entry order above the neckline.
Our target is calculated just like the head and shoulders
pattern. Measure the distance between the head and the
neckline, and that is approximately the distance that the price
will move after it breaks the neckline.
Wedges
Wedges signal a pause in the current trend. When you
encounter this formation, it signals that traders are still
deciding where to take the pair next.
Wedges could serve as either continuation or reversal
patterns
Rising Wedge
A rising wedge is formed when price consolidates between
upward sloping support and resistance lines.
With prices consolidating, we know that a big splash is
coming, so we can expect a breakout to either the top or
bottom.
What will
happen after this?
Cont-d
Falling Wedge
Just like the rising wedge, the falling wedge can either be a
reversal or continuation signal.
As a reversal signal, it is formed at a bottom of a downtrend,
indicating that an uptrend would come next.
As a continuation signal, it is formed during an uptrend,
implying that the upward price action would resume.
Unlike the rising wedge, the falling wedge is a bullish chart
pattern.
Rectangles
A rectangle is a pattern formed when price is bounded by
parallel support and resistance levels.
A rectangle exhibits a period of consolidation or indecision
between buyers and sellers
The price will "test" the support and resistance levels several
times before eventually breaking out.
Can be either bullish or bearish
Pennants
Similar to rectangles, pennants are continuation patterns
formed after strong moves.
After a big upward or downward move, buyers or sellers
usually pause to catch their breath before taking the pair
further in the same direction. Because of this, the price
usually consolidates and forms a tiny symmetrical triangle,
which is called a pennant
Bearish Pennants
While the price is still consolidating, more buyers or sellers
usually decide to jump in on the strong move, forcing the
price to bust out of the pennant formation.
A bearish pennant is formed because some sellers close their
positions while other sellers decide to join the trend,
offsetting each other, making the price consolidate for a bit.
Triangles
Symmetrical Triangle
A chart formation where the slope of the price's highs and the slope of the
price's lows converge together to a point where it looks like a triangle.
As these two slopes get closer to each other, it means that a breakout is
getting near. No one knows which direction the breakout will be, but we
do know that the market will most likely break out.
Ascending Triangle
This type of formation occurs when there is a resistance level
and a slope of higher lows
Which direction will it go?
2 Possibilities:
- The price will break out past the resistance
- The resistance level is too strong, and there is simply not
enough buying power to push it through (most likely)
Descending Triangle
Same goes with Descending Triangle
"Which direction will it go?
2 Possibilities:
- The price will break through the support level
- The support level is too strong, and there is simply not
enough selling power to push it through (most likely)
Chart Pattern
Forms
During
Type of Signal
Next Move
Double Top
Uptrend
Reversal
??
Double Bottom
Head and
Shoulders
Inverse Head and
Shoulders
Rising Wedge
Rising Wedge
Falling Wedge
Falling Wedge
Bearish Rectangle
Bullish Rectangle
Bearish Pennant
Bullish Pennant
Downtrend
Reversal
??
Uptrend
Reversal
??
Downtrend
Reversal
??
Downtrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Downtrend
Downtrend
Uptrend
Downtrend
Uptrend
Continuation
Reversal
Continuation
Reversal
Continuation
Continuation
Continuation
Continuation
??
??
??
??
??
??
??
??
To Exit Trades
You can also use Parabolic SAR to help you determine whether you should close
your trade or not.
Check out how the Parabolic SAR worked as an exit signal in daily chart above.
Stochastic
The Stochastic is another indicator that helps us determine where a trend
might be ending.
An oscillator that measures overbought and oversold conditions in the
market
When the Stochastic lines are above 90 (the red dotted line ), it means the
market is overbought
When the Stochastic lines are below 10 (the blue dotted line), it means
that the market is oversold.
As a rule of thumb,
we buy when the market is oversold,
we sell when the market is overbought
Fundamental Analysis
Current issues - economic, social, and political forces
For instance, unemployment rates, inflation, GDP..
Certain events like an increase in unemployment rate can
affect a country's economy and the demand for its currency
How?? By reading news~~
Why is this important??
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
Weak EMH prices reflect on all past publicly available information
Semi-strong EMH - prices reflect all publicly available information and that
prices instantly change to reflect new public information
Strong EMH - prices instantly reflect even hidden or "insider" information
Tradable Reports
Employment Growth
Interest Rate decisions
Trade Balance
Gross Domestic Product
Retail Sales
Durable Goods
Inflation reports (Consumer Price Index and Producer Price
Index)
Foreign Purchases report (TIC Data)
Non-Farm Payroll
Gold prices are inversely related to the US Dollar Exchange Rate changes. When
the price of the US Dollar falls, the price of gold will strengthen, due to increasing lack
of public trust in regards to the dollar as well as global foreign exchange/currencies;
i.e. when major currencies start to weaken.
Gold has always been entrusted as a primary mode of transaction/currency for
centuries, and till recently, Gold is often regarded as a
solid investment instrument, moreover in uncertain economic times (i.e. a safe haven
/ form of hedging ones funds against times of global financial crisis).
However, there are times where the price ofgold can rally together to exchange USD.
Case in point, when crude oil price increases whilst the US Dollar is strengthening, as
Crude Oil significantly affects the increase or decrease in gold prices.
As the leading price indicator of most raw commodity markets, crude oil prices are
directly proportional to the price of gold. Examples being the Gold Mining companies
globally purchase their Oil Stocks in bulk, moreover via futures contracts tied to
current oil prices, thus when global price of oil increases, so does the price of gold (&
vice versa).
Another factor affecting the price of gold is war and conflict in a country that affects
global state of economics and politics (Example:
The North African War, European Union Sovereign Debt Crisis, US Debt Crisis @ 2011,
et al)
Sentimental Analysis
In world of Finance, what are the two greatest
emotional motivators?
Greed and Fear
The current economy, act before the market
adjusts itself based on the emotional
motivators..
For instance, US debt ceiling, what
happened??
Risk Management
Cut Loss
Cut your losses" means that if you continue, you will lose
much more. So it would be better to stop now and be content
that your losses didn't get any worse
Holding System
Set a limit or a target for every transaction, at the same time
set a stop loss for you. Don't take any action if the market
pacing up and down and it always will. Take your winning if
happen so and prepare to take risk control if going near your
stop loss.
Locking System
Set a target and stop loss for every trade. When market change direction
and come near your stop loss and you do not wish to use the cut loss
system as strong indicators showing trend will continue, you can lock it by
trading one more transaction. When market starts to pull back and
indicators showing, take your profit for the transaction which is winning
and wait for the first transaction to win too. Market tends to move up and
down, you can gain profit from both ways.
Rolling/Pyramid System
Rolling is one of the techniques used to gain additional profit via
performing a new transaction by doubling up in the same direction from
the former transaction, as it used to gain the equal if not more profit in
the same or faster time taken than the previous transaction.
Switching
Switching is one of the techniques used to change the transaction
direction to the opposition direction via performing a new transaction in
the opposite direction from the former transaction (by doubling up the
lots) as it will switch the risk of the transaction and profit from it. Hence,
the switch covers the loss and gain you profit.
Spread
All two-way price quotes, the bid and ask. The bid is always lower than
the ask price.
The bid is the price in which the dealer is willing to buy the base
instrument in exchange for the quote instrument. This means the bid is
the price at which you (as the trader) will sell.
The ask is the price at which the dealer will sell the base instrument in
exchange for the quote instrument. This means the ask is the price at
which you will buy.
The difference between the bid and the ask price is popularly known as
the spread.
Tick
Financial markets move in different size price increments, and
the minimum price movement is known as a tick. Futures
markets often have specific tick sizes.
Tick sizes and tick values are part of the contract
specifications for all financial markets.
Trading Rules/Specification
Market
Contract Code
XULF
Spread
Leverage
1: 300
Minimum Trade
3 Lots
Maximum Trade
18 Lots
Margin Requirement
= USD$15.00
Day Trade USD$1,500
Straddle
USD$ 3,000
USD$120
Margin Call
In the event that money in your account falls below margin
requirements (usable margin), your broker will close some or
all open positions.
This prevents your account from falling into a negative
balance; nevertheless, you have a choice to top up your
account to continue holding your positions.
Or you may liquid your holding position and do the necessary
Capital
Market
Margin Requirement
Day Trade
USD$1,500
Straddle
USD$ 3,000
= USD$15.00
One Week
5 Days
One Month
20 Days
15 Transaction
20 Ticks
USD $120.00
Clearing House
JFX