macro

CHAPTER FOUR

Money and Inflation

macroeconomics
fifth edition

N. Gregory Mankiw
PowerPoint Slides
by Ron Cronovich
2003 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved

In this chapter you will learn

The classical theory of inflation
causes
effects
social costs

Classical -- assumes prices are

flexible & markets clear.

Applies to the long run.

CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 2

U.S. inflation & its trend, 1960-2003

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Inflation rate
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 3

U.S. inflation & its trend, 1960-2003

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

Inflation rate
CHAPTER 4

1985

1990

1995

2000

Inflation rate trend

Money and Inflation

slide 4

The connection between

money and prices
Inflation rate = the percentage increase
in the average level of prices.

price = amount of money required to

buy a good.

Because prices are defined in terms of

money, we need to consider the nature
of money,
the supply of money, and how it is
controlled.

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Money and Inflation

slide 5

Money: definition
Money is the stock
of assets that can
be readily used to
make transactions.

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Money and Inflation

slide 6

Money: functions
1. medium of exchange
we use it to buy stuf

2. store of value
transfers purchasing power from
the present to the future

3. unit of account
the common unit by which
everyone measures prices and
values
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Money and Inflation

slide 7

Money: types
1.fiat money
has no intrinsic value
example: the paper currency we

use

2.commodity money
has intrinsic value
examples: gold coins,

cigarettes in P.O.W. camps

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Money and Inflation

slide 8

Discussion Question
Which of these are money?
a. Currency
b. Checks
c. Deposits in checking accounts
(called demand deposits)
d. Credit cards
e. Certificates of deposit
(called time deposits)
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Money and Inflation

slide 9

The money supply & monetary policy

The money supply is the quantity
of money available in the economy.

Monetary policy is the control

over the money supply.

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Money and Inflation

slide 10

The central bank

Monetary policy is conducted by a
countrys central bank.
In the U.S.,
the central
bank is
called the
Federal
Reserve
(the Fed).

The Federal Reserve Building

Washington, DC
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 11

Money supply measures, April 2002

_Symbol Assets included
C

Currency

Amount (billions)_
$598.7

M1
C + demand deposits, 1174.0
travelers checks,
other checkable deposits
M2
M1 + small time deposits,
savings deposits,
money market mutual funds,
money market deposit accounts

5480.1

M3
M2 + large time deposits,
repurchase agreements,
institutional money market
mutual fund balances

8054.4

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Money and Inflation

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The Quantity Theory of Money

A simple theory linking the
inflation rate to the growth
rate of the money supply.

Begins with a concept called

velocity

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Money and Inflation

slide 13

Velocity
basic concept: the rate at which money
circulates

definition: the number of times the

average dollar bill changes hands in a
given time period

example: In 2003,
$500 billion in transactions
money supply = $100 billion
The average dollar is used in five

transactions in 2003
So, velocity = 5
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

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Velocity, cont.
This suggests the following definition:

M
V
T

where
V = velocity
T = value of all transactions
M = money supply

CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 15

Velocity, cont.
Use nominal GDP as a proxy for total
transactions.
Then,

M
V
PY

where
P = price of output
Y = quantity of output

(GDP deflator)
(real GDP)

P Y = value of output (nominal GDP)

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Money and Inflation

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The quantity equation

The quantity equation
M V = P Y
follows from the preceding definition
of velocity.

It is an identity:
it holds by definition of the variables.

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Money and Inflation

slide 17

Money demand and the quantity equation

M/P = real money balances, the
purchasing power of the money supply.

A simple money demand function:

(M/P )d = k Y
where
k = how much money people wish to
hold for each dollar of income.
(k is exogenous)

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Money and Inflation

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Money demand and the quantity equation

money demand:

(M/P )d = k Y

quantity equation: M V = P Y
The connection between them: k = 1/V
When people hold lots of money
relative to their incomes (k is high),
money changes hands infrequently (V
is low).

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Money and Inflation

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back to the Quantity Theory of Money

starts with quantity equation
assumes V is constant & exogenous:

VV

With this assumption, the quantity

equation can be written as

MVPY

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Money and Inflation

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The Quantity Theory of Money, cont.

MVPY

How the price level is determined:

With V constant, the money supply

determines nominal GDP (P Y )

Real GDP is determined by the

economys supplies of K and L and the

production function (chap 3)
The price level is

P = (nominal GDP)/(real GDP)

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Money and Inflation

slide 21

The Quantity Theory of Money, cont.

Recall from Chapter 2:
The growth rate of a product equals
the sum of the growth rates.

The quantity equation in growth rates:

MVPY

The

V
is constant,
quantityso
theory
= 0.of money assumes

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Money and Inflation

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The Quantity Theory of Money, cont.

Let (Greek letter pi)

denote the inflation rate:

The result from the

preceding slide was:

MPY

Solve this result

for to get

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Money and Inflation

slide 23

The Quantity Theory of Money, cont.

Normal economic growth requires a

certain amount of money supply growth
to facilitate the growth in transactions.

Money growth in excess of this amount

leads to inflation.

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Money and Inflation

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The Quantity Theory of Money, cont.

Y/Y depends on growth in the factors of

production and on technological progress
(all of which we take as given, for now).

Hence, the Quantity Theory of Money predicts

a one-for-one relation between changes in the
money growth rate and changes in the
inflation rate.
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Money and Inflation

slide 25

International data on
inflation and money growth
Inflation rate10,000
(percent,
logarithmic
scale)
1,000

Democratic Republic
Nicaragua of Congo
Angola
Brazil

Georgia

100

Bulgaria

10
Germany

Kuwait
1

USA
Oman

0.1
0.1

CHAPTER 4

Japan
10

Canada

100
1,000
10,000
Money supply growth (percent, logarithmic sca

Money and Inflation

slide 26

U.S. Inflation & Money Growth, 1960-2003

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1960

1965

1970

1975
Inflation rate

CHAPTER 4

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Inflation rate trend

Money and Inflation

slide 28

U.S. Inflation & Money Growth, 1960-2003

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1960

1965

1970

1975
Inflation rate

CHAPTER 4

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Inflation rate trend

Money and Inflation

slide 29

U.S. Inflation & Money Growth, 1960-2003

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1960

1965

1970

Inflation rate

CHAPTER 4

1975

M2 growth rate

1980

1985

1990

Inflation rate trend

Money and Inflation

1995

2000

M2 growth rate trend

slide 30

U.S. Inflation & Money Growth, 1960-2003

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1960

1965

1970

Inflation rate

CHAPTER 4

1975

M2 growth rate

1980

1985

1990

Inflation rate trend

Money and Inflation

1995

2000

M2 growth rate trend

slide 31

Seigniorage
To spend more without raising taxes or
selling bonds, the govt can print money.

The revenue raised from printing money

is called seigniorage
(pronounced SEEN-your-ige)

The inflation tax:

Printing money to raise revenue causes
inflation. Inflation is like a tax on people
who hold money.
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Money and Inflation

slide 32

Inflation and interest rates

Nominal interest rate, i
not adjusted for inflation

Real interest rate, r

adjusted for inflation:
r = i

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Money and Inflation

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The Fisher Effect

The Fisher equation:

i =r +

Chap 3: S = I determines r .
Hence, an increase in
causes an equal increase in i.

This one-for-one relationship

is called the Fisher effect.

CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 34

U.S. inflation and nominal interest rates,

since 1954
Percent
16
14
12
10
8
6

Nominal
interest rate

Inflation
rate

2
0

-2
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 35

Inflation and nominal interest rates

across countries

100
Nominal
interest rate
(percent,
logarithmic
scale)

Kazakhstan
Kenya
Uruguay

Armenia

Italy
France
10
Nigeria
United Kingdom
United States
Japan

Germany
Singapore

CHAPTER 4

10

100
1000
Inflation rate (percent, logarithmic scal

Money and Inflation

slide 36

Exercise:
Suppose V is constant, M is growing 5% per
year, Y is growing 2% per year, and r = 4.
a. Solve for i (the nominal interest rate).
b. If the Fed increases the money growth rate

by
2 percentage points per year, find i .
c. Suppose the growth rate of Y falls to 1% per

year.
What will happen to ?
What must the Fed do if it wishes to
keep constant?
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 37

Answers:
Suppose V is constant, M is growing 5% per
year, Y is growing 2% per year, and r = 4.
a. First, find = 5 2 = 3.
Then, find i = r + = 4 + 3 = 7.
b. i = 2, same as the increase in the

money growth rate.

c. If the Fed does nothing, = 1.

To prevent inflation from rising, Fed must

reduce the money growth rate by 1
percentage point per year.
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 38

Two real interest rates

= actual inflation rate

(not known until after it has occurred)

e = expected inflation rate

i e = ex ante real interest rate:

the real interest rate people expect

at the time they buy a bond or take out a
loan

i = ex post real interest rate:

the real interest rate people actually end up

earning on their bond or paying on their loan

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Money and Inflation

slide 39

Money demand and

the nominal interest rate
The Quantity Theory of Money assumes
that the demand for real money balances
depends only on real income Y.

We now consider another determinant of

money demand: the nominal interest rate.

The nominal interest rate i is the

opportunity cost of holding money (instead
of bonds or other interest-earning assets).

Hence, i in money demand.

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Money and Inflation

slide 40

The money demand function

MPLiY
d
()(,)

(M/P )d = real money demand, depends

negatively on i
i is the opp. cost of holding money

positively on Y
higher Y more spending
so, need more money

(L is used for the money demand function

because money is the most liquid asset.)
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Money and Inflation

slide 41

The money demand function

MPLiY
d
()(,)

rY
L
e
(,)
When people are deciding whether to
hold money or bonds, they dont know
what inflation will turn out to be.
Hence, the nominal interest rate
relevant for money demand is r + e.

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Money and Inflation

slide 42

Equilibrium

LrY
M
e
(,)

The supply of
real money
balances

CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

Real money
demand

slide 43

What determines what

LrY
M
e
(,)

variable

how determined (in the long run)

exogenous (the Fed)

adjusts to make S = I

Y
P

CHAPTER 4

YFKL
(,)

LiY
M
(,)

P
adjusts to make

Money and Inflation

slide 44

How P responds to M
LrY
M
e
(,)

For given values of r, Y, and e,

a change in M causes P to change
by the same percentage --- just like
in the Quantity Theory of Money.

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Money and Inflation

slide 45

What about expected inflation?

Over the long run, people dont consistently
over- or under-forecast inflation,
so e = on average.

In the short run, e may change when people

get new information.

EX: Suppose Fed announces it will increase

M next year. People will expect next years
P to be higher, so e rises.

This will affect P now, even though M

hasnt changed yet.
(continued)
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 46

How P responds to e
LrY
M
e
(,)

For given values of r, Y, and M ,

(the Fisher effect)

i
d
?
MP
e

to make
?
PMP
to re-establish
fall
eq'm

CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 47

Discussion Question

Why is inflation bad?

What costs does inflation impose on
society? List all the ones you can think
of.

Focus on the long run.

Think like an economist.

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Money and Inflation

slide 48

A common misperception
Common misperception:
inflation reduces real wages

This is true only in the short run, when

nominal wages are fixed by contracts.

(Chap 3) In the long run,

the real wage is determined by labor
supply and the marginal product of labor,
not the price level or inflation rate.

Consider the data

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Money and Inflation

slide 49

Average hourly earnings & the CPI

18
18

Hourly
Hourlyearnings
earnings
inin2001
2001dollars
dollars

16
16
14
14
12
12

22

200
200
175
175
150
150
125
125

10
10
88
Average
Average
$$per
hour
per
66 hourhourly
hourly
earnings
earnings
44

250
250
225
225

Consumer
Consumer
Price
PriceIndex
Index

100
100
75
75

(1983
(198
CPI
CPI

50
50
25
25

00
00
1964
1964 1968
1968 1972
1972 1976
1976 1980
1980 1984
1984 1988
1988 1992
1992 1996
1996 2000
2000
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 50

The classical view of inflation

The classical view:
A change in the price level is merely a
change in the units of measurement.

So why, then, is inflation

a social problem?

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Money and Inflation

slide 51

The social costs of inflation

fall into two categories:
1. costs when inflation is expected
2. additional costs when inflation is

different than people had

expected.

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Money and Inflation

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The costs of expected inflation:

1. shoeleather cost
def: the costs and inconveniences of reducing
money balances to avoid the inflation tax.

i
real money balances

Remember: In long run, inflation doesnt

affect real income or real spending.

So, same monthly spending but lower average

money holdings means more frequent trips to
the bank to withdraw smaller amounts of cash.

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Money and Inflation

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The costs of expected inflation:

2. menu costs
def: The costs of changing prices.
Examples:
print new menus
print & mail new catalogs

The higher is inflation, the more

frequently firms must change their
prices and incur these costs.

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Money and Inflation

slide 54

The costs of expected inflation:

3. relative price distortions
Firms facing menu costs change prices
infrequently.

Example:
Suppose a firm issues new catalog each
January. As the general price level rises
throughout the year, the firms relative price
will fall.

Different firms change their prices at different

times, leading to relative price distortions

which cause microeconomic inefficiencies

in the allocation of resources.
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 55

The costs of expected inflation:

4. unfair tax treatment
Some taxes are not adjusted to account for
inflation, such as the capital gains tax.
Example:
Jan 1: you bought $10,000 worth of

Starbucks stock
Dec 31: you sold the stock for $11,000,

so your nominal capital gain was $1000

(10%).
= 10% during the year.
Your real capital gain is $0.

Suppose

But the govt requires you to pay taxes on

your $1000 nominal gain!!

CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 56

The costs of expected inflation:

5. General inconvenience
Inflation makes it harder to compare
nominal values from different time
periods.

This complicates long-range financial

planning.

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Money and Inflation

slide 57

Additional cost of unexpected inflation:

arbitrary redistributions of purchasing power
Many long-term contracts not indexed,
but based on e.
If turns out different from e,
then some gain at others expense.
Example: borrowers & lenders
If

> e, then (i ) < (i e)

and purchasing power is transferred

from lenders to borrowers.
If

< e, then purchasing power is

transferred from borrowers to lenders.

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Money and Inflation

slide 58

Additional cost of high inflation:

increased uncertainty
When inflation is high, its more
variable and unpredictable:
turns out different from e more
often, and the differences tend to be
larger (though not systematically
positive or negative)

Arbitrary redistributions of wealth

become more likely.

This creates higher uncertainty, which

makes risk averse people worse off.
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 59

One benefit of inflation

Nominal
Nominalwages
wagesare
arerarely
rarelyreduced,
reduced,even
even
when
whenthe
theequilibrium
equilibriumreal
realwage
wagefalls.
falls.

Inflation
Inflationallows
allowsthe
thereal
realwages
wagesto
toreach
reach

equilibrium
equilibriumlevels
levelswithout
withoutnominal
nominalwage
wage
cuts.
cuts.

Therefore,
Therefore,moderate
moderateinflation
inflationimproves
improves
the
thefunctioning
functioningof
oflabor
labormarkets.
markets.

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Money and Inflation

slide 60

Hyperinflation
def: 50% per month
All the costs of moderate inflation described
above become

HUGE

under hyperinflation.

Money ceases to function as a store of value,

and may not serve its other functions (unit of
account, medium of exchange).

People may conduct transactions with barter or

a stable foreign currency.

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Money and Inflation

slide 61

What causes hyperinflation?

Hyperinflation is caused by excessive
money supply growth:

When the central bank prints money,

the price level rises.

If it prints money rapidly enough, the

result is hyperinflation.

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Money and Inflation

slide 62

Recent episodes of hyperinflation

slide 63

Why governments create hyperinflation

When a government cannot raise
taxes or sell bonds,

it must finance spending increases by

printing money.

In theory, the solution to

hyperinflation is simple: stop printing
money.

In the real world, this requires drastic

and painful fiscal restraint.
CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 64

The Classical Dichotomy

Real variables are measured in physical units:
quantities and relative prices, e.g.
quantity of output produced
real wage: output earned per hour of work
real interest rate: output earned in the future
by lending one unit of output today
Nominal variables: measured in money units,
e.g.
nominal wage: dollars per hour of work
nominal interest rate: dollars earned in future
by lending one dollar today
the price level: the amount of dollars needed
to buy a representative basket of goods
slide 65

The Classical Dichotomy

Note: Real variables were explained in Chap
3,
nominal ones in Chap 4.

Classical Dichotomy : the theoretical

separation of real and nominal variables in
the classical model, which implies nominal
variables do not affect real variables.

Neutrality of Money : Changes in the

money supply do not affect real variables.
In the real world, money is approximately
neutral in the long run.
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Money and Inflation

slide 66

Chapter summary
1. Money
the stock of assets used for transactions
serves as a medium of exchange, store

of value, and unit of account.

Commodity money has intrinsic value,
fiat money does not.
Central bank controls money supply.

2. Quantity theory of money

assumption: velocity is stable
conclusion: the money growth rate

determines the inflation rate.

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Money and Inflation

slide 67

Chapter summary
3. Nominal interest rate
equals real interest rate + inflation rate.
Fisher effect: nominal interest rate moves

one-for-one w/ expected inflation.

is the opp. cost of holding money

4. Money demand
depends on income in the Quantity

Theory
more generally, it also depends on the
nominal interest rate;
if so, then changes in expected inflation
affect the current price level.
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Money and Inflation

slide 68

Chapter summary
5. Costs of inflation
Expected inflation

shoeleather costs, menu costs,

tax & relative price distortions,
inconvenience of correcting figures for
inflation
Unexpected inflation
all of the above plus arbitrary
redistributions of wealth between
debtors and creditors

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Money and Inflation

slide 69

Chapter summary
6. Hyperinflation
caused by rapid money supply

growth when money printed to

finance
govt budget deficits
stopping it requires fiscal reforms to

eliminate govts need for printing

money

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Money and Inflation

slide 70

Chapter summary
7. Classical dichotomy
In classical theory, money is neutral--

does not affect real variables.

So, we can study how real variables are

determined w/o reference to nominal

ones.
Then, eqm in money market determines

price level and all nominal variables.

Most economists believe the economy

works this way in the long run.

CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 71

CHAPTER 4

Money and Inflation

slide 72