Statistic Introduction

What is Statistics
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ILLUMINATION.
ILLUMINATION.
Statistics
 Thebranch of mathematics
that deals with the
collection,
organization,
analysis, and
interpretation
of numerical data.
Statistics
is especially
useful in drawing
general conclusions
about a set of data
from a sample of the data.
DATA
 SINGULAR -----DATUM.
 PLURAL --------DATA.
WE MAY DEFINE DATA AS

NUMBERS AND THERE IS
TWO KINDS OF NUMBERS
THAT WE USE IN
STATISTICS THE RESULTS OF
: COUNTING AND
MEASUREMENTS.
variable
ANY ASPECT OF AN
INDIVIDUAL THAT IS
MEASURED, LIKE
BLOOD PRESURE,
AGE,
SEX etc.
Variables divide into
different types
QUALITATIVE
(CATEGORICAL)
QUANTITATIVE
(NUMERICAL)
Read
not to contradict
and confute,
not to believe
and take for granted,
not to find talk and discourse,
but to weigh and consider.
Sir Francis Bacon

WHAT MAKE STATISTICS UNIQUE?
ITS ABILITY TO
QUANTIFY
UNCERTAINTY,
TO MAKE IT
PRECISE.
Good thinking!
I’m 95 % confident
that this afternoon
I will score
has probability
between
73 % and 77 %
of being
best player
A more positive example in statistics is
the SALK POLIO VACCINE in 1954
vaccine trials were performed on some
400,000 children, with strict controls to
eliminate biased results.
Good statistical analysis of the

results firmly established the
vaccine’s effectiveness,
and to day
POLIO is almost unknown.
To accomplish their feats of mathematical
LEGERDEMAIN (STATISTICIANS)
 RELY ON THREE RELATED DISCIPLINE:
 Data analysis
The gathering, display, and summary
of data
 Probability
The law of chance
 Statistical Inference
The science of drawing statistical
conclusions from specific data, using a
knowledge of probability.
Objectives of this course
At the end of the course the students
will be able to
1. organize data
2. summarize data
3. reach decision about
a large body of data
by examining
only small part of the data.
 Objective
number 1 and 2
we will discuss in
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS.
 Objective
number 3
we will discuss
INFERENCIAL STATISTICS
What is biostatistics
Biostatistics is
in effect, two words
and two fields of study
combined.
The bio part involves biology,

the study of living things.
The statistics part
involves
Collection,
Organization, Analysis,
and
interpretation
of numerical data
Biostatistics
is the application
of statistics
to a wide range of topics in
biology. It has particular
applications to medicine
and
to agriculture.
Statistics calculations
are an important
part of data analysis,
but interpreting data
also
requires
a great deal of judgment
Understanding
the statistical calculations
is only a small part
of
1. evaluating clinical
2. pharmaceutical
3. biological research.
Why
is it hard
to learn
statistics?
The terminology is deceptive
You have to understand :
1. Significant
2. Error
3. Hypothesis
4. Null hypothesis
5. Confidence interval
Level of significant
p value
Population
Sample
Paired and unpaired
samples
Remember
The phrase
statistically significant
is
seductive
and
is
often misinterpreted.
Statistics
is
at the interface
of
mathematics
and
science
However
You can learn
to use
statistical test
and interpret
the results
even
if you don’t fully understand
how they work.
Inductive reasoning
often described
as
"going from the specific
to the general."
AND
It is based on
observing
specific instances
of a certain quality
in individual members
of a group of
1. people
2. animals or
3. events
noting
the individual members
in which
a certain quality
occurs
belong to a certain group
generalizing
to the conclusion
that
other members
of that group
have the same quality.
For example
if you were to go to a cat show,
you would see many breeds
of cats with tails.
After walking up and down,
you might begin to notice
a pattern,
and your reasoning
might go something like this:
– Siamese cats have tails.
– Persian cats have tails.
– Himalayan cats have tails.
– Russian Blues have tails.
– American Tabbies have tails.
After a while, you would probably
come to the conclusion -
All cats
have tails
The problem with this
conclusion is
that it isn't true.
The manx

is one breed of cat
that has no tail.
So the conclusion
of
an inductive argument
can be shown to be wrong
if only one instance
does not fit
the general pattern.
The Manx is a breed of cats with a naturally
occurring mutation of the spine.
For this reason
the result of
is never considered
to be TRUE or FALSE
instead
we refer to the conclusions reached
through
inductive reasoning
as
MORE OR LESS RELIABLE.
Before proceeding, think about this
question:
What would make the

conclusion from an inductive
argument MORE reliable?
In inductive reasoning,
the more specific instances

you observe,
the more reliable
your conclusion.
Because
the conclusion from
cannot be considered
true or false
the conclusion must be qualified.
The conclusion
from your observations about cats
and their tails might be qualified
in one of the following ways:
–Many cats have tails.
–Some cats have tails.
–Most cats have tails.
Cats,
–in general, have tails.
–Cats tend to have tails.
A conclusion
that is
more or less
reliable
The more specific instances
observed
the more reliable the conclusion.
Deductive reasoning
Inductive Reasoning
allows you to learn
something new
about the world.
Deductive Reasoning
allows you to apply what
you have learned.
The classic example of
a deductive argument
All men are mortal.
Abdullah is a man.
Therefore
Abdullah is mortal.
The first premise
("All men are mortal.")
is the result
of
inductive reasoning.
The second premise
identifies
a specific member
of that group (Abdullah).
While Inductive Reasoning
 results in conclusions that are more

or less reliable,
 Deductive Reasoning results
 in conclusions
 that are true or false:

In order for the conclusion
of
a deductive reasoning process
to be true,
all of its premises
must be true.
.
Most people
would agree
that
the first premise given
is true.
Most people
would also agree
that
the second premise
given is true
IF both of the premises are true,
then
the conclusion must also be true
if and only if it follows necessarily
from
the information
given in the premises.
Suppose
we return to our observations
about cats
and their tails
and the conclusion
we arrived at
by using
inductive reasoning:
Most cats have Remember that this
tails. conclusion had to be
qualified.
Ra is a cat. I could show you pictures.
Ra has a tail. Therefore,

this conclusion
follow necessarily?
A trick question:
When it rains, the streets get wet.

The streets are wet.
Therefore,
it has been raining.
 Is
the conclusion valid?
 Why or why not?
The conclusion to that trick
question is NOT valid:
– When it rains, the streets get wet.

– The streets are wet.
– Therefore, it has been raining.
 The conclusion of a deductive
argument must follow necessarily
from the argument's premises;
however, the first premise in this
argument is a conditional statement.
(It gives a condition under which
something becomes true.) The
statement can be restated like this:
IF it rains,
THEN
the streets get wet.
The problem with the conclusion
from the above argument
is that there are other conditions
which may cause the streets to get wet:
 snow, sleet or other forms of
precipitation besides rain
 fire hydrants being opened
 people washing their cars in the streets
 flooding
When a premise using IF-THEN
(or in our example WHEN)
 isgiven, the second premise must

give the specific condition stated in
the first premise: the IF part of the
statement:
When it rains, the streets get wet.
It has been raining.
Therefore,
the streets are wet.
Giving the second part of a
conditional statement
(the THEN part),
results in
an invalid argument.
Another way of looking at this
problem is to think in terms of
our first argument
(about Abdullah):
Step in Process Socrates Rain Argument
Argument
Identify a shared All men are mortal All rainy days

quality of the set: cause the streets
to get wet.
Identify a member Abdullah is a man It is raining today.

of the set:
Valid conclusion: Abdullah is The streets are

mortal. wet.
All men are mortal.
Abdullah is mortal.
Therefore,
Abdullah is a man.
• This conclusion does not follow necessarily
from the premises
because
Abdullah could be
a cat,
a mule,
a dog,
or any other living thing.

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What is Statistics

WE MAY DEFINE DATA AS

Sir Francis Bacon

Good statistical analysis of the

The bio part involves biology,

What would make the

the more specific instances

("All men are mortal.")

 results in conclusions that are more

 that are true or false:

Ra is a cat. I could show you pictures.

Ra has a tail. Therefore,

When it rains, the streets get wet.

– When it rains, the streets get wet.

 isgiven, the second premise must

Identify a shared All men are mortal All rainy days

Identify a member Abdullah is a man It is raining today.

Valid conclusion: Abdullah is The streets are

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