The Stock Market, The Theory of Rational Expectations, and The Efficient Market Hypothesis

Chapter 7
The Stock
Market, the
Theory of
Rational
Expectations,
and the Efficient
Market
Hypothesis
20-1 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

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• In this chapter we examining the theory of

rational expectations. When this theory is
applied to financial markets, the outcome is
the efficient market hypothesis, which has
some general implications for how markets
in other securities besides stocks operate.

Learning Objectives
• Calculate the price of common stock.

• Recognize the impact of new information on
stock prices.
• Compare and contrast adaptive and rational
expectations.
• Explain why arbitrage opportunities imply
that the efficient market hypothesis holds.

Learning Objectives
• Identify and explain the implications of the

efficient market hypothesis for financial
markets.
• Summarize the reasons why behavioral
finance suggestions that the efficient market
hypothesis may not hold.

Common Stock
• Principal way for corporations to raise

fund.
• Stockholders:
– Own an interest in the corporation proportional to the
percentage of outstanding shares they own.
– Entitled for the voting rights.
– Residual claimant
– Received dividend from the net earnings of the corporation.
• Common stock valuation:
– Present value of all cash flows in the investment.

Computing the Price of Common
Stock
The One-Period Valuation Model:
Div1 P1
P0  
(1  ke ) (1  ke )
P0 = the current price of the stock
Div1 = the dividend paid at the end of year 1
ke = the required return on investment in equity
P1 = the sale price of the stock at the end of the first period

Stock
Example:
Compute the price of the Intel stock if, after a
careful consideration, you decide that you
would be satisfied to earn 12% return on
investment. You are also told that Intel pays
$0.16 per year in dividends and forecast the
share price of $60 for next year.

Stock

Stock
The Generalized Dividend Valuation Model:
The value of stock today is the present value of all future cash flows
D1 D2 Dn Pn
P0    ...  
(1  ke )1 (1  ke ) 2 (1  ke ) n (1  ke ) n
If Pn is far in the future, it will not affect P0

Dt
P0  
t 1 (1  ke )t
The price of the stock is determined only by the present value of
the future dividend stream

The Generalized Dividend Valuation
Model
Example:
Find the value of the stock that sells for $50
seventy-five years from now using a 12%
discount rate. Assuming the stock pays no
dividend.

The Generalized Dividend Valuation
Model

The Gordon Growth Model
D0 = the most recent dividend paid

g = the expected constant growth rate in dividends
ke = the required return on an investment in equity
Multiply both sides of the equation with (1+ke)/ (1+g) and subtract from the
original equation
ke > g

The Gordon Growth Model

Stock
The Gordon Growth Model:

D0 (1 g) D1
P0  
(ke  g) (ke  g)
D0 = the most recent dividend paid
g = the expected constant growth rate in dividends
ke = the required return on an investment in equity
Dividends are assumed to continue growing at a constant rate forever
The growth rate is assumed to be less than the required return on equity

How the Market Sets Stock Prices
• The price is set by the buyer willing to pay

the highest price.
• The market price will be set by the buyer
who can take best advantage of the
asset.
• Superior information about an asset can
increase its value by reducing its perceived
risk.

Expected dividend $2 next year

Dividend expected to grow at 3%
Investor Discount Rate Stock Price

You 15%
Jennifer 12% $22.22

Bud 10% $28.57

• Information is important for individuals to

value each asset.
• When new information is released about a
firm, expectations and prices change.
• Market participants constantly receive
information and revise their expectations,
so stock prices change frequently.

Application: The Global Financial
Crisis and the Stock Market
• The financial crisis that started in August

2007 led to one of the worst bear markets
in 50 years.
• Downward revision of growth prospects: ↓g
• Increased uncertainty: ↑ke
• Gordon model predicts a drop in stock
prices.

The Theory of Rational Expectations
• Adaptive expectations:
– Expectations are formed from past
experience only.
– Changes in expectations will occur slowly
over time as data changes.
– However, people use more than just past
data to form their expectations and
sometimes change their expectations
quickly.

The Theory of Rational Expectations
• Expectations will be identical to optimal

forecasts using all available information.
• Even though a rational expectation equals the
optimal forecast using all available information,
a prediction based on it may not always be
perfectly accurate.
– It takes too much effort to make their expectation
the best guess possible.
– The best guess will not be accurate because the
predictor is unaware of some relevant information.

Formal Statement of the Theory
X e  X of
X e  expectation of the variable that is being forecast
X of = optimal forecast using all available information

Rationale Behind the Theory
• The incentives for equating expectations

with optimal forecasts are especially strong
in financial markets. In these markets,
people with better forecasts of the future
get rich.
• The application of the theory of rational
expectations to financial markets (where it
is called the efficient market hypothesis or
the theory of efficient capital markets) is
thus particularly useful.

Implications of the Theory
• If there is a change in the way a variable

moves, the way in which expectations of
the variable are formed will change as well.
– Changes in the conduct of monetary policy (e.g.
target the federal funds rate)
• The forecast errors of expectations will, on

average, be zero and cannot be predicted
ahead of time.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Rational
Expectations in Financial Markets
Recall
The rate of return from holding a security equals the sum of the capital
gain on the security, plus any cash payments divided by the
initial purchase price of the security.
Pt 1  Pt  C
R
Pt
R = the rate of return on the security
Pt 1 = price of the security at time t + 1, the end of the holding period
Pt = price of the security at time t , the beginning of the holding period
C = cash payment (coupon or dividend) made during the holding period

At the beginning of the period, we know Pt and C.

Pt+1 is unknown and we must form an expectation of it.
The expected return then is
P  Pt  C e
R  e t 1
Pt
Expectations of future prices are equal to optimal forecasts using all
currently available information so
P P R R
e
t 1
of
t 1
e of
Supply and Demand analysis states Re will equal the equilibrium

return R*, so Rof = R*
• Current prices in a financial market will be

set so that the optimal forecast of a
security’s return using all available
information equals the security’s
equilibrium return.
• In an efficient market, a security’s price
fully reflects all available information.

Rationale Behind the Hypothesis
R of  R*  Pt  R of 
R of  R*  Pt  R of 
until
R of  R*
In an efficient market, all unexploited profit opportunities will
be eliminated

How Valuable are Published Reports
by Investment Advisors?
• Information in newspapers and in the
published reports of investment advisers is
readily available to many market
participants and is already reflected in
market prices.
• Acting on this information will not yield
abnormally high returns, on average.
• The empirical evidence for the most part
confirms that recommendations from
investment advisers cannot help us
outperform the general market.

Efficient Market Prescription for the
Investor
• Recommendations from investment advisors

cannot help us outperform the market.
• A hot tip is probably information already
contained in the price of the stock.
• Stock prices respond to announcements
only when the information is new and
unexpected.
• A “buy and hold” strategy is the most
sensible strategy for the small investor.

Why the Efficient Market Hypothesis
Does Not Imply that Financial Markets
are Efficient
• Some financial economists believe all prices
are always correct and reflect market
fundamentals (items that have a direct
impact on future income streams of the
securities) and so financial markets are
efficient.
• However, prices in markets like the stock
market are unpredictable- This casts serious
doubt on the stronger view that financial
markets are efficient.

Behavioral Finance
• The lack of short selling (causing over-

priced stocks) may be explained by loss
aversion.
• The large trading volume may be explained
by investor overconfidence.
• Stock market bubbles may be explained by
overconfidence and social contagion.

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Chapter 7

20-1 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• In this chapter we examining the theory of

1-2 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Calculate the price of common stock.

1-3 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Identify and explain the implications of the

1-4 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Principal way for corporations to raise

1-5 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

The One-Period Valuation Model:

1-6 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-7 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-8 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-9 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-10 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-11 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

D0 = the most recent dividend paid

1-12 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-13 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Gordon Growth Model:

1-14 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• The price is set by the buyer willing to pay

1-15 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expected dividend $2 next year

Investor Discount Rate Stock Price

Jennifer 12% $22.22

1-16 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Information is important for individuals to

1-17 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• The financial crisis that started in August

1-18 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-19 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Expectations will be identical to optimal

1-20 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-21 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• The incentives for equating expectations

1-22 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• If there is a change in the way a variable

• The forecast errors of expectations will, on

1-23 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-24 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

At the beginning of the period, we know Pt and C.

Supply and Demand analysis states Re will equal the equilibrium

• Current prices in a financial market will be

1-26 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-27 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-28 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Recommendations from investment advisors

1-29 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

1-30 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

• The lack of short selling (causing over-

1-31 © 2016 Pearson Education Ltd. All rights reserved.

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