The Nature of Probability and Statistics

Chapter 1
The Nature of Probability

and Statistics
Chapter 1 Overview
Introduction
1-1 Descriptive and Inferential Statistics
1-2 Variables and Types of Data
1-3 Data Collection & Sampling Techniques
1-4 Observational and Experimental Studies
1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics
1-6 Computers and Calculators
Bluman Chapter 1 2
Introduction
 Statistics is the science of conducting
studies to
collect,
organize,
summarize,
analyze, and
draw conclusions
from data.
Bluman Chapter 1 3
 A variable is a characteristic or attribute

that can assume different values.
 The values that a variable can assume
are called data. Datum?
 A population consists of all subjects
(human or otherwise) that are studied.
 A sample is a subset of the population.
Bluman Chapter 1 4
 Descriptive statistics consists of the
collection, organization, summarization,
and presentation of data.
 Inferential statistics consists of:

 generalizing from samples to populations,
 performing estimations and hypothesis tests,
 determining relationships among variables, and
 making predictions.
Bluman Chapter 1 5
Data
Qualitative Quantitative
Categorical Numerical,
Can be ranked
Discrete Continuous
(Countable) (Can be decimals
5, 29, 8000, etc. & fractions)
2.59, 312.1, etc.
Bluman Chapter 1 6
 Qualitative variables – variables placed in
distinct categories (gender, colour, religion)
 Quantitative variables – numerical and can be

ordered or ranked (height, weight, temperature)
 Discrete – assumes values that can be counted (no of
students in a class, etc)
 Continuous – assumes infinite no of values between
any two specific values (includes fractions and
decimals) (eg. Height, weight)
Bluman Chapter 1 7
1-2 Recorded Values and Boundaries
Variable Recorded Value Boundaries

Length 15 centimeters 14.5-15.5 cm
(cm)
Temperature 86 Fahrenheit 85.5-86.5 F
(F)
Time 0.43 second 0.425-0.435
(sec) sec
Mass 1.6 grams (g) 1.55-1.65 g
Bluman Chapter 1 8
1-2 Levels of Measurement (See Table 1-
2)
1. Nominal – classifies data into mutually
exclusive (non-overlapping) categories in
which no order or ranking can be imposed
(eg.martital status - single , married, divorced)
2. Ordinal – classifies data into categories that

can be ranked but precise differences
between ranks do not exist (guest speaker
ranked as superior, average, poor. Large
variation still exist in each class)
Bluman Chapter 1 9
1-2 Levels of Measurement (See Table 1-
2) (contd)
3. Interval – ranks data,and precise differences

between units of measure do exists, but there
is no meaningful zero (IQ & Temperature)
4. Ratio – has all characteristics of interval

measurement, and there is a true zero. True
ratios exist when the same variable is
measured on two different members of the
population
Bluman Chapter 1 10
Determine the measurement level.

Variable Nominal Ordinal Interval Ratio Level
Hair Color Yes No Nominal
Zip Code Yes No Nominal
Letter Grade Yes Yes No Ordinal
ACT Score Yes Yes Yes No Interval
Height Yes Yes Yes Yes Ratio
Age Yes Yes Yes Yes Ratio
Temperature (F) Yes Yes Yes No Interval
Bluman Chapter 1 11
1-3 Data Collection & Sampling
 Surveys
 Telephone surveys
 Mailed questionaire
 Personal interviews
 Surveying past records
 Direct observations
 Data should not be collected in a haphazard way. This is

to prevent bias
 To obtain unbiased samples (each subject in a
population is equally likely to be selected) statisticians
use 4 basic sampling techniques/methods
Bluman Chapter 1 12
1-3 Data Collection and Sampling –
Sampling Techniques
 Random sampling – samples are selected by
chance methods or by random numbers
 Systematic sampling – number every subject in a
population and then selecting every kth subject
 Stratified sampling – divide population into layers or
groups
 Cluster sampling – use intact groups
 Convenient – mall surveys
Bluman Chapter 1 13
1-4 Observational and Experimental
Studies
 In an observational study, the researcher merely
observes and tries to draw conclusions based on the
observations.
 In an experimental study, the researcher manipulate

one of the variables to determine its effect on other
variables
 Treatment group
 Control group
 The researcher manipulates the independent
(explanatory) variable and tries to determine how
the manipulation influences the dependent
(outcome) variable in an experimental study.
Bluman Chapter 1 14
1-4 Observational and Experimental
Studies
 Disadvantages of Experimental studies
 May occur in unnatural settings – labs, classrooms
 Confounding of variables – a confounding variable
influences the dependent variable but cannot be
separated from the independent variable.
Bluman Chapter 1 15
 Suspect Samples
 Is the sample large enough?
 How was the sample selected?
 Is
the sample representative of the
population?
 Ambiguous Averages
 Whatparticular measure of average was
used and why?
Bluman Chapter 1 16
 Changing the Subject
 Aredifferent values used to represent the
same data?
 Detached Statistics
 One third fewer calories…….than what?
 Implied Connections
 Studiessuggest that some people may
understand what this statement means.
Bluman Chapter 1 17
 Misleading Graphs
 Are
the scales for the x-axis and y-axis
appropriate for the data?
 Faulty Survey Questions
 Doyou feel that statistics teachers should
be paid higher salaries?
 Do you favor increasing tuition so that
colleges can pay statistics teachers higher
salaries?
Bluman Chapter 1 18
1-6 Computers and Calculators
 Microsoft Excel
 Microsoft Excel with MegaStat
 TI-83/84
 Minitab
 SAS
 SPSS
Bluman Chapter 1 19

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Chapter 1

The Nature of Probability

 A variable is a characteristic or attribute

 Inferential statistics consists of:

 Quantitative variables – numerical and can be

Variable Recorded Value Boundaries

2. Ordinal – classifies data into categories that

3. Interval – ranks data,and precise differences

4. Ratio – has all characteristics of interval

Determine the measurement level.

 Data should not be collected in a haphazard way. This is

 In an experimental study, the researcher manipulate

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