Risk Analysis in SPM

A risk is a probability that some adverse
circumstance will occur:
• Project risks affect schedule or resources;
• Product risks affect the quality or performance of

the software being developed;
• Business risks affect the organization developing

or procuring the software.
Risk Affects Description
Staff turnover Project Experienced staff will leave the project before it is finished.
Management Project There will be a change of organizational management with different

change priorities.
Requirements Project There will be a larger number of changes to the requirements than
change & product anticipated.
Specification Project Specifications of essential interfaces are not available on schedule.

delays & product
Hardware Project Hardware that is essential for the project will not be delivered on
Unavailability schedule.
Risk Affects Description
CASE tool Product CASE tools which support the project do not perform as
underperformance anticipated
Size Project The size of the system has been underestimated.

Underestimate & product
Technology change Business The underlying technology on which the system is built is
superseded by new technology.
Product Business A competitive product is marketed before the system is

competition completed.
The risk management process
Risk identification
• Identify project, product and business risks;
Risk analysis
• Assess the likelihood and consequences of these risks;
Risk planning
• Draw up plans to avoid or minimize the effects of the risk;
Risk monitoring
• Monitor the risks throughout the project;
Risk identification
Technology risks.
People risks.
Organizational risks.
Requirements risks.
Estimation risks.
Risks and it’s types
Risk type Possible risks
Technology The database used in the system cannot process as many transactions
per second as expected.
Software components that should be reused contain defects that limit their
functionality.
People It is impossible to recruit staff with the skills required.

Key staff are ill and unavailable at critical times.
Required training for staff is not available.
Organizational The organization is restructured so that different management are responsible

for the project.
Organizational financial problems force reductionism the project budget
Risks and it’s types….
Risk type Possible risks
Tools The code generated by CASE tools is inefficient.
CASE tools cannot be integrated.
Requirements Changes to requirements that require major design rework are proposed.
Customers fail to understand the impact of requirements changes.
Estimation The time required to develop the software is underestimated.

The rate of defect repair is underestimated.
The size of the software is underestimated.
Risk analysis
Assess probability and seriousness of each
risk.
Probability may be very low, low, moderate,
high or very high.
Risk effects might be catastrophic, serious,
tolerable or insignificant.
Risk analysis
Risk Probability Effects
It is impossible to recruit staff with the skills High Catastrophic
Required for the project
Changes to requirements that require major Moderate Serious

Design rework are proposed.
The time required to develop the software is High Serious

underestimated.
Key staff are ill at critical times in the project. Moderate Serious
Risk planning
Consider each risk and develop a strategy to
manage that risk.
Avoidance strategies
• The probability that the risk will arise is reduced;
Minimization strategies
• The impact of the risk on the project or product will
be reduced;
Contingency plans
• If the risk arises, contingency plans are plans to
deal with that risk;
Risk Planning
Risk Strategy
Organizational & Prepare a briefing document for senior management
financial problems showing how the project is making a very important
contribution to the goals of the business
Recruitment Alert customer of potential difficulties and the

problems possibility of delays, investigate buying-in components.
Requirements Derive traceability information to assess requirements

changes change impact,maximize information hiding in the design
Underestimated Investigate buying in components, investigate

development time use of program generators.
Risk monitoring
Assess each identified risks regularly to decide
whether or not it is becoming less or more
probable.
Also assess whether the effects of the risk
have changed.
Monitor the risks throughout the project;
Each key risk should be discussed at
management progress meetings.
Risk Planning
Risk type Potential indicators
Requirements Many requirements change requests, customer
complaints
Organizational Organizational gossip, lack of action by senior

management
Estimation Failure to meet agreed schedule, failure to

clear reported defects
Tools Reluctance by team members to use tools,

complaints about CASE tools, demands for
higher-powered workstations

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A risk is a probability that some adverse

circumstance will occur:

• Project risks affect schedule or resources;

• Product risks affect the quality or performance of

• Business risks affect the organization developing

Management Project There will be a change of organizational management with different

Specification Project Specifications of essential interfaces are not available on schedule.

Size Project The size of the system has been underestimated.

Product Business A competitive product is marketed before the system is

People It is impossible to recruit staff with the skills required.

Organizational The organization is restructured so that different management are responsible

Estimation The time required to develop the software is underestimated.

Changes to requirements that require major Moderate Serious

The time required to develop the software is High Serious

Recruitment Alert customer of potential difficulties and the

Requirements Derive traceability information to assess requirements

Underestimated Investigate buying in components, investigate

Organizational Organizational gossip, lack of action by senior

Estimation Failure to meet agreed schedule, failure to

Tools Reluctance by team members to use tools,

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