CHAPTER 3

Rules of
Probability
 The Range of Values
Probability obeys certain rules. The first rule sets the range
of values that the probability measure may take.

For any event A, the probability P(A) satisfies

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
 The Rule of Complements
The complement of event A is defined to be the event
consisting of all sample points that are not in A.
Recall that the complement of set A is denoted by  A.

Probability of the complement:

P (A) = 1 - P(A)
 Example
1. If the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.3, then the
probability of no rain tomorrow must be 1 - 0.3 = 0.7.

2. If the probability of drawing an ace is 4/52, then the

probability of the drawn card’s not being an ace is 1 -4/52
48/52.
 The Rule of Unions

It allows us to write the probability of the union of

two events in terms of the probabilities of the two
events and the probability of their intersection:

The rule of unions:

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
 Example 1
For example, suppose your chance of being offered a certain
job is 0.4, your probability of getting another job is 0.5, and
your probability of being offered both jobs is 0.3. What is
your probability of being offered at least one of the two jobs.

Let P(A) = the chance of being offered a job = 0.4

P(B) = probability of getting another job = 0.5
P(A  B) = the probability of being offered both jobs = 0.3.
 Example 1
What is your probability of being offered at least one of the
two jobs.

Applying the rule of unions:

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
= .4 + .5 - .3
= .6
 Example 2
Suppose that 25% of the population in a given area is
exposed to a television commercial for Ford automobiles,
and 34% is exposed to Ford’s radio advertisements. Also, it
is known that 10% of the population is exposed to both
means of advertising. If a person is randomly chosen out of
the entire population in this area, what is the probability that
he or she was exposed to at least one of the two modes of
advertisings?
 Example 2

Let P(A) = prob that it is exposed to a television commercial

for Ford automobiles
= .25
P(B) = prob that it is exposed to Ford’s radio advertisements
= .34
P(A  B) = the that it is exposed to both means of advertising.
= .10
 Example 2
What is the probability that he or she was exposed to at least
one of the two modes of advertisings?

Applying the rule of unions:

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
= .25 + .34 - .1
= .49
 Example 3
Within a given population, 22 percent of the people are
smokers, 57 percent of the people are males, and 12
percent are males who smoke. If a person is chosen at
random from the population, what is the probability that the
selected person is either a male or a smoker?
 Example 3
Let P(S) = the prob. that the people are smokers = .22
P(M) = the prob. that they are males = .57
P(M  S) = the prob. that they are males and they smoke.
= .10
 Example 3
What is the probability that the selected person is either a
male or a smoker?

Applying the rule of unions:

P(M  S) = P(M) + P(S) – P(M  S)
= .57 + .22 - .10
= .67
 Example 4
A student is taking two courses, history and math. The
probability the student will pass the history course is .60
and probability the student will pass Math course is .70.
The probability of passing both is .50. What is the
probability of passing at least one?
 JOINT PROBABILITY
• A probability that measures the likelihood two or
more events will happen concurrently.
 JOINT PROBABILITY

• For two independent events A and B, the

probability that A and B will both occur is found
by multiplying the two probabilities.
Applying the rule of special rule of multiplication:

P(A  B) = P(A) * P(B)

 JOINT PROBABILITY

Given the conditional probability the formula for

joint probability:

P(A  B) = P(A/B)* P(B)

 Example 1
In a certain city, 5 percent of all drivers have expired
licenses and 10 percent have an unpaid parking ticket. If
these events are independent, what is the probability that
a driver has both an expired license and an unpaid parking
ticket?
 Example 1
Let P(E) = the prob. that the license is expired= .05
P(U) = the prob. that the parking ticket is unpaid = .10
P(E  U) = the prob. that driver has both an expired license and
an unpaid parking ticket
Applying the rule of special rule of multiplication:

P(E  U) = P(E) * P(U)

= .05*.1 = .005
 Example 2
The probability that the person received a flu vaccine is
70% and the chance that he will get a flu is 10%. While the
one who did not receive flu vaccine has a 40% chance of
getting a flu. A.) Find the probability that a randomly
chosen person received a flu vaccine and will also get the
flu? B.) Find the probability that a randomly chosen person
did not receive a flu vaccine and will also get the flu?
C.) Find the probability that a randomly chosen person will
get the flu?
Example 2
 Solution to a)
Let P(V) = the prob. that the person received a flu vaccine = .70
P(F/V) = the prob. that the person got flu given that he
received a flu vaccine
= .40
P(F  V) = the probability that the person will get the flu vaccine
and will also get the flu
P(F) = P(F/ V) * P(V)
= .1 * .7 = .07
 Solution to B)
Let P(V) = the prob. that the person did not receive flu vaccine =
.30
P(F/  V) = the prob. that the person got flu given that he did not
receive vaccine
= .40
P(F   V) = the probability that the person will get the flu vaccine
and will also get the flu
P(F   V ) = P(F/  V) * P( V)
= .40 * .30 = .12
 Solution to C)

P(F  V) = the probability that the person will get the flu vaccine
and will also get the flu
P(F   V) = the probability that the person will get the flu vaccine
and will also get the flu
P(F) = P(F  V ) + P(F   V)
= .07 + .12 = .19
 Mutually Exclusive Events

• When the sets corresponding to two events are

disjoint (have no intersection)

• When two events cannot occur at the same time.

 Mutually Exclusive Events

For mutually exclusive events A and B:

P(A  B) = 0
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
 Example 1
A machine fills plastic bags with mixtures of nuts and other
beans. Most of the bags contain the right weight, but
because of the variation in the size of the nuts and beans,
bags may be underweight or overweight. A random sample
of 4,000 bags filled in the past month revealed:
 Example
Weight Event Number of Probability of
bags occurrence
Underweight A 100 100/4000 = .025
Overweight B 300 300/4000= .075
Satisfactory C 3600 3600/4000=.900

What is the probability that a particular bag will be either

underweight or overweight?
 Example 1

For mutually exclusive events A and B:

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
= .025 + .075 = .100
 Example 2
A study of 200 advertising firms revealed their income after
taxes:
Income after Event Number of
Taxes Firms
Under $1 M A 102
$1 M - $20 M B 61
$20 M or more C 37
 Example 2
A. What is the probability an advertising firm selected at
random has under $1M in income after taxes?
B. What is the probability an advertising firm selected at
random has either an income between $1M - $20, or an
income of $20 or more?
 Solution to (a)

102 61 37

P(A) = f/n =102/200 = .51

 Solution to (b)

102 61 37

P(B  C) = P(B) + P(B)

= 61/200 + 37/200
= .305 + .185
= .49
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

The probability of a particular event occurring, given that

another event has occurred.

P( A  B)
P( A|B) 
P( B)
 Example 1
A golfer has 12 shirts in his closet.
Suppose nine of these shirts are white
and the others are blue. He gets
dressed in the dark, so he grabs a shirt
and puts it on. He plays golf two days in
a row and does not launder and return
the used shirts to the closet. A) What is
the probability that both shirts selected
are white? B) What is the probability of
selecting three white shirts?
 Solution to (a)
Let P(W1) = the prob. that the first shirt selected is white = 9/12
P(W2/ W1) = the prob. that the second shirt selected is white
given that the first shirt selected is white = 8/11
P(W2  W1) = the probability that the two shirts selected are both
white

P(W2  W1) = P(W1)* P(W2/ W1)

= (9/12)(8/11) = .5455
 Solution to (B)
P(W3  W2  W1) = the probability of selecting three white shirts

P(W3  W2  W1 ) = [P(W1)* P(W2/ W1)] P(W3/ W2 and W1)

= (9/12)(8/11)(7/10)
= .38
 CONTINGENCY TABLE

A cross-tabulation of frequencies into rows and columns.

The intersection of each row and column is a cell that

shows the frequency.

Contingency tables often are used to report the results of a

survey.
 CONTINGENCY TABLE
A random sample of 500 students of College of Commerce
were surveyed. A contingency table summarizes the
results of the surveyed.
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500
 CONTINGENCY TABLE
Marginal Probabilities
A.) What is B.) What is C.) What is D.) What is the
the probability the probability the probability probability of
of selecting a of selecting a of selecting a selecting a
student student student student
majoring
majoring in majoring in majoring in
Human
Economics? Finance? Marketing? Resource
 CONTINGENCY TABLE
Joint Probabilities
E.) What is G.) What is H.) What is
F.) What is the
the probability the probability the probability
probability of
of selecting a of selecting a of selecting a
selecting a
female female male Human
male Finance
Economics Marketing Resource
student?
student? student? student?
 CONTINGENCY TABLE
Conditional Probabilities
I.) What is the J.) What is the K.) If the L.) If the
probability of probability of student is student is
selecting a
selecting a female, what is male, what is
female given that
she is majoring in
male given that the probability the probability
Human she is majoring that she is an that he is in
Resource? in Marketing? HR students ? Finance?
 CONTINGENCY TABLE
Conditional Probabilities
M.) What is N.) What is O.) If two P.) If two
the probability the probability students are students are
of selecting a of selecting a selected, what selected, what
student in female or a is the probability is the probability
Economics or Marketing that both of them that both of them
Finance? student? are in Marketing? are in Male?
 SOLUTION A)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500
A.) What is
the probability P(Economics) = f/n
of selecting a = 39/500
student = .078 = 7.8%
majoring in
Economics?
 SOLUTION B)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500
B.) What is
the probability P(Finance) = f/n
of selecting a = 155/500
student = .31 = 31%
majoring in
Finance?
 SOLUTION C)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500
C.) What is
the probability P(Marketing) = f/n
of selecting a = 246/500
student = .492 = 49.2%
majoring in
Marketing?
 SOLUTION D)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500

D.) What is the

P(HR) = f/n
probability of
selecting a = 60/500
student majoring = .12 = 12%
in Human
Resource?
 SOLUTION E)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500

E.) What is the P(Female and Eco) = f/n

probability of
selecting a = 21/500
female = .042 = 4.2%
Economics
student?
 SOLUTION f)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500

F.) What is the P(Male and Finance) = f/n

probability of = 90/500
selecting a
male Finance
= .18 = 18%
student?
 SOLUTION G)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500

G.) What is the P(Female and Marketing) = f/n

probability of
selecting a = 134/500
female = .268 = 26.8%
Marketing
student?
 SOLUTION H)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500

H.) What is the P(male and HR) = f/n

probability of = 25/500
selecting a
male HR
= .05 = 5%
student?
 SOLUTION I)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500

I.) What is the P(female /HR) = f/n

probability of
selecting a female = 35/60
given that she is = .5833 = 58.33%
majoring in Human
Resource?
 SOLUTION J)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500

J.) What is the P(Male /Marketing) = f/n

probability of
selecting a male = 112/246
given that she is = .4553 = 45.53%
majoring in
Marketing?
 SOLUTION K)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500

K.) If the student is P(Male /Marketing) = f/n

female, what is the = 35/255
probability that she
is an HR students ? = .1373 = 13.73%
 SOLUTION L)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500

L.) If the student is P(Finance/Male) = f/n

male, what is the = 90/245
probability that he
is in Finance? = .3673 = 36.73%
 SOLUTION M)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500

M.) What is the P(Economics  Finance)

probability of = P(Eco) +P(Fin)
selecting a student
= 39/500 + 155/500
in Economics or
Finance? = .078 + .310
= .388 = 38.8%
 SOLUTION N)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500
N) What is the P(Female  Marketing)
probability of = P(F) + P(Mark)-P(F  Mark)
selecting a female
= 245/500 + 246/500 – 112/500
or a Marketing
student? = 379/500
= .758 = 75.8%
 SOLUTION O)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500
O) If two students P(M1  M2) = P(M1)* P(M2/M1)
are selected, what = 246/500 * 245/499
is the probability that
both of them are in
= .2416 = 24.16%
Marketing?
 SOLUTION P)
Economics Finance Human Marketing Total
Resource
Male 18 90 25 112 245
Female 21 65 35 134 255
Total 39 155 60 246 500
P) If two students P(F1  F2) = P(F1)* P(F2/F1)
are selected, what = 255/500 * 254/499
is the probability that
both of them are
= .2596 = 25.96%
Female?